Week 3 – West Virginia at Pittsburgh
posted September 13
The Game
It’s time for another edition of one of the best rivalries in college football as West Virginia and Pittsburgh tangle on Saturday afternoon. The Mountaineers struggled mightily in their opener vs Penn St (L 34-12) and bounced back last week vs FCS foe Albany (W 49-14). It’s hard to get a clear gauge on them given the disparity between their two opponents but it’s clear that they’ve haven’t been razor sharp. The Panthers smoked a brutal Kent St team in game one (W 55-24) and then made a miraculous comeback vs Cincinnati last week after falling behind 27-7 (W 28-27). They had no clue what they were doing for a half but then turned it on late to bag the win.
The hate between these two programs is PALPABLE. Let’s goooo!
The Details
West Virginia -1 Pittsburgh (63)
MEGALOCKS LINE – West Virginia -2.5
“Vegas” Implied Projected Score: West Virginia 32 Pittsburgh 31
West Virginia offense vs Pittsburgh defense
The Mountaineers were a devastating rushing team LY (#229 YPG, #4 FBS) but they were stoned by Penn St (85 yards) before finding their mojo vs Albany (305). Pitt did a good job vs the West Virginia rushing attack LY but here’s a nugget you won’t find anywhere else on the planet: West Virginia’s mobile QB Garrett Greene got hurt in that game and star RB Jaheim White did not play. Also note that Pitt’s DL is a question mark this season after losing a ton of experience as well as their ace DL coach. They’ve looked very average vs the run so far (Cincy RB C Kiner 20-149 last week) and West Virginia will be their toughest test to date. At least Pitt has shown some spice with the pass rush (8 sacks in 2G) but we don’t anticipate the Mountaineers throwing the ball a lot in this game. Greene struggles with the THROW GAME when the opposing defense can do a good job stopping the run and it’s unclear whether or not Pitt has the MINERALS to do so given that West Virginia has all three of their key rushing weapons healthy and ready to roll.
Pittsburgh offense vs West Virginia defense
The Panthers promised to move as a much faster pace this season and they weren’t lying. They scored FIDDY on Kent St and did a great job in the 2nd half vs the Bearcats. The problem with any offense that moves this quick is that things can dry up really fast if things aren’t clicking (3-and-outs). Exhibit A would be the first half of the Cincinnati game. We expect the Pitt offense to move the ball well thru the air for good portions of the game as the Mountaineers are questionable in the secondary and they’ve only posted two sacks thru 2G. Pitt’s new starting QB Eli Holstein has thrown for a lot of yards so far but he’s a bit of a LOOSE CANNON and turnovers can be key in a game like this one. How will he perform in just his 3rd career start in a yuuuge game? The wild card on offense is RB/PR Desmond Reid who’s been electric so far in 2024 (293 rush, 117 receiving yards in 2G) and the West Virginia stop unit will need to keep his big plays to a minimum.
Trends, Intangibles, and More!
West Virginia is 20-11 SU under HC Neal Brown at home but 10-18 SU on the road…..Pitt HC Pat Narduzzi is just 25-34-3 ATS at home (42%) with the Panthers….These two teams have split the last two meetings since this epic rivalry was revived in 2022.
Summary
We’ll roll with the better rushing team with the mobile QB. The Mountaineers looked bad vs Penn St so we’re getting a reasonable price. Could be a heart attack special. Buckle up!
Conclusion
Lean – West Virginia ML -115
Posted 11:40am EST Sept 13
-115 is the market consensus.
‘Official play’ means that this is one of our favorite plays of the week (perceived value, match-up, coaching, trends, etc.). We’re currently investing 25% more on these plays vs our ‘leans’. We’ll normally have two or three of these choices per week.
‘Lean’ means that we’re placing a standard size wager on the game. We’ll normally have about ten of these plays per week. Many members prefer to pick and choose amongst these games when finalizing their weekly investment cards so we’ll continue to refer to them as ‘leans’.
‘No leanage’ means that we won’t have any action on the game.
Team totals – We’ll list the implied number based on the point spread and total when our analysis is posted. If a team total ends up being an ‘official play’ we’ll post a widely available number at the time of pick release.