Week 4 – Iowa at Minnesota
posted September 16
The Game
Yes, guy.
Let’s get ready for one of the nastiest rivalry games in the Big Ten as Iowa travels to face Minnesota on Saturday night. The Gophers lost their opener to North Carolina but haven’t allowed a single point since that defeat. They beat something commonly referred to as Rhode Island (W 48-0) and then followed that up with a 27-CACK victory over Nevada. Iowa also sits at 2-1 and the loss came to their bitter rivals from Iowa St (L 20-19) on a 54-yard FG in the dying seconds.
Who will take home the coveted Floyd of Rosedale Trophy, a giant bronze pig?
College football is awesome. Let’s gooooooooo.
The Details
Iowa -2.5 Minnesota (36)
MEGALOCKS LINE – Iowa -4
“Vegas” Implied Projected Score: Iowa 19.25 Minnesota 16.75
Iowa offense vs Minnesota defense
The Iowa offense is still a very average operation to say the least but they’re much improved over what we’ve seen over the L3Y. They’ve booked a respectable 419 YPG (235/252 L2Y) under new OC Tim Lester and they’ve got the #1 (!!) rusher in college football in Kaleb Johnson who’s been an absolute animal in 2024 (479, 7.9 YPC, 6 TD). Iowa is very deep at the RB position and note that Minnesota allowed UNC RB Omarion Hampton to rush for 129 yards (4.3) in their week one defeat. Iowa QB Cade McNamara is no gem but he’s a yuuuge upgrade over the filth that they trotted out LY and as crazy as it sounds, this might be the best QB that Minnesota has faced so far this season. They faced noodle-armed Max Johnson in the opener and the horrifying QBs at Rhode Island and Nevada. Iowa has introduced a red-zone package with backup QB Brendan Sullivan (Northwestern LY) and he’s also more dangerous than anything the Gophers have faced so far, and that’s saying something. Iowa doesn’t have much in terms of THROW GAME weaponry but they’ve found something in Northwestern transfer Jacob Gill, they’ve got a legit TE in Luke Lachey, and don’t sleep on speedster WR Kaden Wetjen who should become a bigger part of the offense. Minnesota’s defense has been very stout but it’s not like the depth chart is littered with superstars.
Minnesota offense vs Iowa defense
The Gophers also feature a stud RB on offense as Darius Taylor is well on his way to a 1,000-yard campaign even after missing the first game vs UNC (188, 7.5 YPC, 3 TD). Minnesota has a fine stable of RBs but Taylor will need to have a big game if the Gophers plan on winning this game. The bad news is that Iowa has been a BRICK WALL vs the run (56 YPG, #5 FBS) and they made Iowa St completely one-dimensional. If Minnesota wants to GIT ‘R DONE on offense they’ll have to do some damage thru the air and note that Iowa has been VERY disappointing vs the pass whilst giving up too many explosive plays. Unfortunately for Minnesota, their new starting QB Max Brosmer didn’t look very good vs a suspect UNC stop unit (13-21, 165, 0-0 TD to INT) and we still favor the Iowa secondary over the Minnesota WR/TE doods. Also be advised that Iowa has 9 sacks thru 3G and Minnesota allowed 5 sacks vs North Carolina.
Trends, Intangibles, and More!
Iowa is on a 10-2 SU run vs Minnesota but they did lose to the Gophers LY thanks in large part to a brutal officiating call that took a late punt return TD off the board …..Iowa is averaging 6.1 YPP on offense after posting hideous 3.9 and 4.2 marks over the L2 campaigns…..The WEATHER HOTTIES on our payroll have alerted us to potential rain on game day but that’s a long way off as we approach press time….If we’re honest, any weather conditions that hamper the THROW GAME would be a benefit to Iowa in our estimation.
Summary
We’ll roll with the better team that’s owned the series history over the last number of years.
Conclusion
Official play: Iowa -2.5 -108. <sent Sept 16 4:25pm EST>
‘Official play’ means that this is one of our favorite plays of the week (perceived value, match-up, coaching, trends, etc.). We’re currently investing 25% more on these plays vs our ‘leans’. We’ll normally have two or three of these choices per week.
‘Lean’ means that we’re placing a standard size wager on the game. We’ll normally have about ten of these plays per week. Many members prefer to pick and choose amongst these games when finalizing their weekly investment cards so we’ll continue to refer to them as ‘leans’.
‘No leanage’ means that we won’t have any action on the game.
Team totals – We’ll list the implied number based on the point spread and total when our analysis is posted. If a team total ends up being an ‘official play’ we’ll post a widely available number at the time of pick release.