Week 4 QUICK TAKES – College Football Predictions
Here are some QUICK TAKES on the games that did not make the cut for a longer write-up this week.
Let’s go!
UPDATE 4:52pm FRIDAY – all done for the week! Enjoy the games.
Handy index: Quick Takes
‘Official’ picks in blue. ‘Leans’ in green. Waiting on a number for a potential play in orange.
- Marshall at Ohio St
- Kent St at Penn St
- Akron at South Carolina
- Arkansas St at Iowa St
- ULM at Texas
- Georgia Southern at Ole Miss
- Florida at Mississippi St
- Illinois at Nebraska (Friday) (play added 1:02pm Sept 17)
- Charlotte at Indiana
- Ohio at Kentucky
- Ball St at Central Michigan
- Utah St at Temple
- San Jose St at Washington St (Friday)
- Bowling Green at Texas A&M
- South Alabama at Appalachian St (Thursday) (play added 6:00pm Sept 17)
- Stanford at Syracuse (Friday)
- Vanderbilt at Missouri
- NC State at Clemson
- TCU at SMU
- New Mexico St at Sam Houston St
- UCLA at LSU
- East Carolina at Liberty
- Miami at USF
- California at Florida St
- James Madison at UNC
- Duke at MTSU
- USC at Michigan
- FAU at UConn
- Virginia at Coastal Carolina
- UTEP at Colorado St
- Utah at Oklahoma St
- Wyoming at North Texas
- Southern Miss at Jacksonville St
- Arkansas at Auburn
- Northwestern at Washington
- Tulsa at Louisiana Tech
- Houston at Cincinnati
- Kansas at West Virginia
- Buffalo at Northern Illinois
- Purdue at Oregon St
- Miami Ohio at Notre Dame
- Toledo at Western Kentucky
- Fresno St at New Mexico
- Arizona St at Texas Tech
- Georgia Tech at Louisville
- Baylor at Colorado
- Memphis at Navy
- Tulane at Louisiana
- Rice at Army
- Rutgers at Virginia Tech
- Michigan St at Boston College
- Kansas St at BYU
QUICK TAKES
1. Ohio St -39.5 Marshall (51.5)…………MEGALOCKS line – Ohio St -38
Vegas Implied Score – Ohio St 45 Marshall 6.5
Both teams come into this one off a bye….Ohio St can name the score (combined score 108-6 F2G) but note that Big Ten play starts next week (at Sparty) and there’s no reason to expect an “A” effort in this game….This looks like the worst Marshall team since 2016 (3-9) and we’re not backing this team vs a National Championship contender.
No leanage
2. Penn St -49 Kent St (55)…………MEGALOCKS line – Penn St -49
Vegas Implied Score – Penn St 52 Kent St 3
Total degenerates may be considering taking a Kent St team total ‘over 3’ in this revolting match-up ** but note that the Golden Flashes were just blasted by Tennessee 71-CACK….The Volunteers had 65 points in the first half….This is another case where the favorite can name the score….Penn St starts conference play next week (Illinois).
** All they have to do is score three points to push that bet. Two safeties and it’s a win!
No leanage
3. South Carolina -27 Akron (47) ………MEGALOCKS line – South Carolina -29.5
Vegas Implied Score – South Carolina 37 Akron 10
South Carolina gave LSU all they could handle last week in a very entertaining game (L36-33) and the week before that they blasted Kentucky (W 31-6)….This could be a bit of a letdown spot after those two emotional games and also note that QB LaNorris Sellers has a bit of a gimpy ankle so who knows how much (or if) he’ll play on Saturday….They’ve got a bye week after this game so two weeks of healing seems like a good idea before SEC play gets going again….Akron won’t be a total pushover in MAC play but they’ve already lost 52-6 to Ohio St and 49-17 to Rutgers.
No leanage
4. Iowa St -22 Arkansas St (52) ………MEGALOCKS line – Iowa St -21
Vegas Implied Score – Iowa St 37 Arkansas St 15
The Red Wolves put up a game effort at the BIG HOUSE last week and only lost to mighty Michigan by 10 points….Ya, they scored a couple of late TDs to make the final score look close but we give Arkansas St credit for fighting against the defending national champs until the final whistle….Like we often say tho, can a Group of Five squad play well on the road vs a tough Power 4 team for a second consecutive week?….Iowa St is coming off a bye and they got the THROW GAME activated in their week two win over Iowa….Tough call at this number…..Cyclones start Big 12 play next week (Houston).
No leanage
5. Texas -45 ULM (53) ………MEGALOCKS line – Texas -47
Vegas Implied Score – Texas 49 ULM 4
Texas has crushed their first three opponents (including Michigan) by a combined score of 139-19 (!) and they’re +44 vs the spread….Can’t fade them vs a Sun Belt bottom-feeder even tho the Warhawks looked good in their last game (two weeks ago) vs UAB (W 32-6)….Texas starts SEC play next week (Mississippi St **).
** RUH ROH.
No leanage
6. Ole Miss -35.5 Georgia Southern (66.5) ………MEGALOCKS line – Ole Miss -33
Vegas Implied Score – Ole Miss 51 Georgia Southern 15.5
Ole Miss has played a BUTTERY SOFT schedule but at least there was a Power 4 team in there (Wake Forest) and they’ve obliterated the competition by a combined margin of 168-9 (!)….They can name the score but the price isn’t cheap at -35 and change….Georgia Southern can SCORE the FOOTBALL but their defense is pure DOO DOO.
No leanage
7. Florida -5.5 Mississippi St (58.5) ………MEGALOCKS line – Florida -6.5
Vegas Implied Score – Florida 32 Mississippi St 26.5
This is an unplayable game from an investment standpoint between two teams that are going GLUG GLUG GLUG down the tubes and we haven’t even reached October….At least Mississippi St can say they’re breaking in a new HC and they’re clearly in rebuild mode but they just got blown to bits by Toledo….Florida just looks lost and their HC Billy Napier is a DEAD MAN WALKING **.
** Easy, Karen. That’s just an expression.
No leanage
8. Nebraska -9 Illinois (43.5) ………MEGALOCKS line – Nebraska -7.5
Vegas Implied Score – Nebraska 26.25 Illinois 17.25
WHOA NELLIE….It’s a Friday night Big Ten battle between a pair of 3-0 Big Ten squads….CORN has beaten their three opponents by a combined tally of 102-20 (!) but their best win was over Colorado….And all three of their games were at home….The Illini have also played three home games with their best win coming vs Kansas….Both QBs have been solid (combined 11-1 TD to INT) and both stop units have been stout….Illinois HC Bret Bielema is 9-3 ATS as a road dog with Illinois (24-16-1 ATS overall) whilst Nebraska is 21-28-1 ATS as a home favorite since 2014 (but 2-0 this season)…..This promises to be a relatively low-scoring affair and we’d be interested in the road underdog should we see a +10 before game day…..Not impossible…Stay tuned!
Holding pattern – Waiting for +10 for potential action.
UPDATE.
Speak of the devil and he shall appear.
Lean – Illinois +10
Posted 1:02pm Sept 17
+10 is the consensus number.
9. Indiana -28.5 Charlotte (48.5) ………MEGALOCKS line – Indiana -27
Vegas Implied Score – Indiana 38.5 Charlotte 10
Indiana has been WHO WE THOUGHT THEY WERE destroying the opposition en route to a 3-0 record……Charlotte is totally disgusting but the line doesn’t provide much value and the Hoosiers have Big Ten play up next (Maryland).
No leanage
10. Kentucky -20 Ohio (42) ………MEGALOCKS line – Kentucky -21
Vegas Implied Score – Kentucky 31 Ohio 11
Kentucky left it all on the field last week in a 13-12 (!) loss to mighty Georgia and whilst Ohio is totally overmatched in this BAD BOY note that the Wildcats have SEC action on deck (at Ole Miss)…..Ohio is much better than anticipated but they’ve got bigger fish to fry starting next week when MACtion begins (Akron)…..Line looks about right.
No leanage
11. Central Michigan -6.5 Ball St (53.5) ………MEGALOCKS line – Central Michigan -7
Vegas Implied Score – Central Michigan 30 Ball St 23.5
We’re lower than market on both of these teams but there’s no doubt that FIRE UP CHIPS have more talent….Ball St is a very inexperienced outfit and they just got smoked by YOUR Miami Hurricanes to the tune of 62-CACK….Keep in mind tho that the Cardinals have only played two games and their cumulative stats (thanks to the Miami game) look horrid.
No leanage
12. Utah St -6 Temple (61)………MEGALOCKS line – Utah St -7
Vegas Implied Score – Utah St 33.5 Temple 27.5
Temple is one of the worst teams in the country but their defense has looked pretty decent (vs Oklahoma, Coastal Carolina) and Utah St is a total mess whilst coming off an emotional game vs Utah and they’ve got a bye week up next….Line looks about right.
No leanage
13. Washington St -13.5 San Jose St (55.5) ………MEGALOCKS line – Washington St -14
Vegas Implied Score – Washington St 34.5 San Jose St 21
Don’t look now but the KOOKY Washington St Cougars just might be on a MISSION FROM GOD in terms of making the CFP….Before you laugh at that speculation note that they just took down Washington (meh) and there’s a greater-than-zero possibility that they keep winning games (given their schedule) which keeps them in the mix for a Group of Five CFP spot….We don’t see much value in backing them this week after their yuuuuge win over the Huskies and San Jose St has been really scrappy under new HC Ken Niumatalolo.
No leanage
14. Texas A&M -23.5 Bowling Green (52.5) ………MEGALOCKS line – Texas A&M -24
Vegas Implied Score – Texas A&M 38 Bowling Green 14.5
WHOA, NELLIE the Aggies just might have found a decent QB in Marcel Reed and if nothing else he’s given the team a SPARK….The problem with backing them this week is that they’re in a horrible scheduling spot (off Florida, WOO PIG up next) and Bowling Green just might be (wait for it) the best team in the MAC….Line looks fair.
No leanage.
15. Appalachian St -8 South Alabama (64) ………MEGALOCKS line – Appalachian St -9.5
Vegas Implied Score – Appalachian St 36 South Alabama 28
The Mountaineers bounced back nicely from their PRISON STYLE beating at the hands of Clemson and took down a scrappy ARRRRRRRRRR East Carolina Pirates squad last week and they did so by winning the yardage battle 515-324…..It took a comeback from a 16-CACK deficit but they prevailed by a score of 21-19…..QB Joey Aguilar is off to a fine start and the offensive weaponry will be tough to handle for a South Alabama defense that allowed 446 passing yards to North Texas and 200+ yards rushing and receiving vs Ohio….The Jaguars had a get-right game last week by POLEAXING something called Northwestern St to the tune of 87-10 (!)….Stud QB Gio Lopez missed the Ohio game but he’s looked fantastic in the other two games…..App St has won the last four meetings….South Alabama is just 17-26 ATS L10Y as a road underdog…..Favorite or pass….We’ll hang around and see if a -7 pops up but we highly doubt it.
Holding pattern – Waiting for -7 for potential action.
UPDATE
Speak of the devil and he shall appear.
Lean – Appalachian St -7
Posted 6:00pm Sept 17
-7 is the consensus line.
16. Syracuse -10 Stanford (57)…………MEGALOCKS line – Syracuse -10
Vegas Implied Score – Syracuse 33.5 Stanford 23.5
Both teams roll into this Friday night spectacle off a bye for an ACC CONFERENCE GAME…..The Orange disposed of Ohio and Georgia Tech in their first two contests and we really like the look of QB Kyle McCord and the offense….The stop unit needs some work tho….Stanford was outplayed and outgunned by TCU in their opener and probably should have lost that game by more than seven points….They smoked FCS turd Cal Poly in their 2nd game but you can’t take much from that win….Stanford QB Ashton Daniels is a legit dual threat specimen and WR Elic Ayomanor is an absolute BEAST but they don’t have a rushing attack (other than QB) and the defense is MEH…..Line looks about right.
No leanage
17. Missouri -21 Vanderbilt (53.5)…………MEGALOCKS line – Missouri -21
Vegas Implied Score – Missouri 37.25 Vanderbilt 16.25
Missouri took care of business last week vs BC (W 27-21) and moved to 3-0 on the season….The offense has looked sharp for the most part and the run defense has been stout (49 rushing yards allowed vs BC!)….Vanderbilt almost moved to 3-0 (!) but fell to the mighty Georgia St Panthers in a barnburner (L 36-32)….QB Diego Pavia has been excellent for the Commodores but it’ll be tough to navigate the Missouri defense without a rushing attack that’ll surely be shut down….Missouri is 4-8 L12 ATS as double-digit favs vs the SEC and 9-14-1 ATS as a home fav (1-1 this year) under HC Eli Drinkwitz…..Both teams have bye weeks up next, line looks DEAD ON BALLS ACCURATE **.
** an industry term
No leanage
18. Clemson -20.5 NC State (47.5)…………MEGALOCKS line – Clemson -18.5
Vegas Implied Score – Clemson 34 NC State 13.5
There’s only one way to go in this BAD BOY as Clemson comes in fresh off a bye and the last time we saw them they were destroying App St (W 66-20)….NC State has played three mediocre games and the QB situation is up in the air as we approach press time…..And did we mention that their defense isn’t any good?….Price is a bit steep to back the Tigers so we’ll stay on the sidelines.
No leanage
19. TCU -2.5 SMU (58.5)…………MEGALOCKS line – TCU -3
Vegas Implied Score – TCU 30.5 SMU 28
We’ll roll with the road team in the battle for the IRON SKILLET…..TCU has won 20 of the last 25 meetings but this is certainly one of the best Mustang teams in a long time….The bad news for SMU is that they have GROSSLY underwhelmed in all three games this season and they couldn’t even score a TD (!) at home vs BYU in their last outing….Maybe a bye week and a switch to Kevin Jennings as starting QB will make a difference but we don’t know how they’ll fix the OL…..At least they still have a stingy defense….TCU has done nothing wrong all year other than play a horrible 4th Q vs the JUGGERNAUT UCF Knights (L 35-34) but they dominated play for a good chunk of that affair and UCF is a LOT better than SMU…..Here’s a fun fact….TCU QB Josh Hoover **, much maligned on these pages and others, has a sparkling 8-0 TD to INT mark (119 attempts, yup, no INTs) and the THROW GAME has been devastating….SMU has a very good secondary but we’ll see how they handle the best passing attack that they’ve faced so far by a long Texas mile…..TCU looking to get that losing taste out of their collective mouths….SMU has the totally yuuuuge ACC opener at home next week (Florida St) which might be the most underrated lookahead spot on the week 4 card.
** No relation to Babette Hoover, star of the underrated GARAGE GIRLS trilogy
Lean – TCU -2.5 -115
Posted 12:35pm Sept 17
-2.5 is the consensus line. It’s starting to get juiced so we suspect it’s gonna touch -3 at some point.
20. Sam Houston -16.5 New Mexico St (44.5)…………MEGALOCKS line – Sam Houston -14.5
Vegas Implied Score – Sam Houston 30.5 New Mexico St 14
Sam Houston mopped the floor with Hawaii last week and don’t look now but they’re a dark horse contender in CUSA given how Liberty has looked so far in 2024….New Mexico St is close to PURE FILTH but note that they were up by 9 (!) points over Liberty (!) in week 2 before the Flames scored a pair of TDs in the final five minutes…Prefer the favorite but not at this price point.
No leanage
21. LSU -24.5 UCLA (56.5)…………MEGALOCKS line – LSU -22
Vegas Implied Score – LSU 40.5 UCLA 16
Could only look at the home favorite in this contest as the LSU THROW GAME is legit and they might have found a starting RB in freshman Caden Durham who played a yuuuge role in their comeback win over South Cackalacky…..The defense is still a major question mark tho and they allowed 243 (!) rushing yards vs a Gamecocks squad that presented no passing threat….UCLA is a TRASH HEAP ** but they might have enough on offense to put together a few annoying drives and this number has pushed thru the 24 point barrier….LSU HC Brian Kelly is 11-2 ATS at home with the Tigers…..Tempted but we wanted a number around 20/21.
** we’re too classy to make a wisecrack about the commie trash heap called Los Angeles
No leanage
22. Liberty -7 East Carolina (54.5)…………MEGALOCKS line – Liberty -6
Vegas Implied Score – Liberty 30.75 East Carolina 23.75
The Flames have looked very unimpressive compared to expectations as they struggled to get past New Mexico St (!) and they didn’t sniff a cover vs UTEP…..Their other game?….a 41-24 win over a gross Campbell squad (41 point favs)….The ARRRRRRRRR Pirates will be the best team they’ve faced by a wide margin but East Carolina has been comically sloppy with the football (12 turnovers – dead last FBS) which has spoiled an excellent start to the season by the defense (4.08 YPP, #20 FBS)…..Liberty’s defense has been ok but they’ve played three turds…..We’re interested in the underdog but let’s see if we can get +7.5….We’ll still probably grab a +7 if needed but let’s see how it plays out….If it goes to +6/+6.5, oh well.
Holding pattern – Waiting for +7.5 for potential action.
UPDATE
Lean – East Carolina +7.5
Posted 3:15pm Sept 20
+7.5 is the consensus line.
23. Miami -16.5 USF (65)…………MEGALOCKS line – Miami -17
Vegas Implied Score – Miami 40.75 South Florida 24.25
YOUR Miami Hurricanes have been crushing and killing the opposition and they’re coming off a 62-CACK victory over Ball St….Their DL has been absolutely DEVASTATING and the depth up front is ridiculous….The Canes have booked 12 sacks in 3G (#2 FBS) whilst the Bulls have allowed a worrisome 11 sacks (#126) so it seems unlikely that the Bulls will be able to sustain drives given the negative plays that are sure to happen….Oh, and Miami is allowing just 66 YPG on the ground and if USF can’t get the ground attack rolling they are toast………Did we mention that Miami has a legit Heisman contender at QB?…..The intrepid Phil Steele reminds us that Miami is 7-0 ATS on the road vs Group of Five teams…..Prefer the favorite but was hoping for a -14 and here we are.
No leanage
24. Florida St -2.5 California (44.5)…………MEGALOCKS line – Florida St -3
Vegas Implied Score – Florida St 23.5 California 21
The Florida St football program is in a world of hurt and that definitely makes everyone feel very sad…..Especially since they’ve been threatening to leave the ACC because they’re so awesome and they’re suing everyone on the planet including pig farmers in Botswana…..We know that Florida St fans must feel like a pile of shit right now but there’s hope…..The communist horde from Berkeley is coming to town and how can you not beat this team?….Well, we’ll take a pass since the Seminoles are 0-3 and they just got trucked by Memphis on their home field…..We were hoping for a line closer to +6/+7 but that was obviously (in hindsight) never gonna happen.
No leanage
25. UNC -10.5 James Madison (48.5)…………MEGALOCKS line – North Carolina -10
Vegas Implied Score – North Carolina 29.5 James Madison 19
Easy game to throw in the trash bin from an investment standpoint…..We still don’t know what James Madison is all about given the overhauled roster and new HC…..and they’ve only played Charlotte and Gardner-Webb so far….UNC is trying to figure out if their 2nd or 3rd string QB is the better option….Line looks fair.
No leanage
26. Duke -14.5 MTSU (52.5)…………MEGALOCKS line – Duke -16
Vegas Implied Score – Duke 33.5 MTSU 19
Another game that doesn’t spark our interest, especially since Duke has a yuuuge game with North Carolina up next……The Blue Devils are 3-0 but they struggled to get past UConn at home last week…..MTSU is looking for answers to a lot of questions….Line might be a bit short but we’re not biting.
No leanage
27. USC -5.5 Michigan (46.5)…………MEGALOCKS line – USC -3.5
Vegas Implied Score – USC 26 Michigan 20.5
WHOA, NELLIE!….It’s a classic match-up between two storied programs taking place in Ann Arbor on Saturday….Michigan hasn’t been able to do anything thru the air as the QB situation is beyond horrible but they’ve been decent on the ground (301 yards rushing last week vs Arkansas St) and they’ll need a big game out of emerging stud RB Kalel Mullings who’s well on his way to a 1,000-yard season (270, 7.5, 2 TD)…..Alex Orji takes over at QB this week and that means RUN BABY RUN as his passing skills are non-existent and the only decent THROW GAME weapon Michigan has is star TE Colston Loveland who’s nursing a bit of a shoulder issue….Can USC stop the run?…. They did a decent job vs LSU and their only other opponent was Utah St so the jury is still out….Michigan’s pass defense has been hit for over 200Y thru the air in all three games and we expect USC to do some damage with their excellent set of TE/WR weaponry….We believe that USC will GIT ‘R DONE but we don’t see any value in backing the Trojans from a pure power rating standpoint….In fact we haven’t seen any PR in the “USC -6” range but who knows if that means anything……Note that USC HC Lincoln Riley is just 8-17-1 ATS in his career as a road fav (2-6 with Trojans).
No leanage
28. UConn -2.5 FAU (46.5)…………MEGALOCKS line – Pick ’em
Vegas Implied Score – UConn 24.5 FAU 22
Big game for SEASON WIN TOTAL CLUB as the Huskies have a very winnable home game to try and push their record to 2-2….They gave Duke all they could handle last week and actually led the game well into the 2nd half….FAU finally got a win last week (FIU, won 38-20) but it certainly didn’t hurt that they were +5 in t/o margin…..Was hoping to see UConn as a small dog in this spot but here we are.
No leanage
29. Virginia -3.5 Coastal Carolina (55.5)…………MEGALOCKS line – Virginia -2
Vegas Implied Score – Virginia 29.5 Coastal Carolina 26
Yes, guy….The wacky Chanticleers are 3-0 and they get to host a Power 4 team for just the 2nd time in their illustrious history….Trivia buffs will note that they spanked Kansas back in 2021 (W 49-22) and don’t forget that the Chants also took down BYU (now a Power 4 team) at home during the 2020 SCAMDEMIC season ** by a score of 22-17 as 10-point dogs on this very field…..The offense has been balanced although QB Ethan Vasko is much more reliable as a runner than a passer…..The RB group might get a bit healthier this week but we’ve assumed they’ll go with the same outfit from last week which isn’t their best collection of talent….The good news is that the Chants are playing inspired defense….9 sacks (#16 FBS) and they’ve scored a defensive TD in every game….That’s something which should frighten Virginia fans as QB Anthony Colandrea is a LOOSE CANNON willing to take shots down the field but making horrifying mistakes is also part of his charm…..Virginia has been MEH vs the run and been shredded vs the pass which hopefully means the Chants can hit a few big plays thru the air….Virginia off a pair of ACC games….Both teams have bye weeks up next….Much bigger game for the home team and we’re getting theoretical line value.
** Safe and effective, baby. Big pharma loves you. <hey, did you hear Greg just dropped dead? Weird, since he was a world-class athlete in the prime shape of his life.>
Lean – Coastal Carolina +3.5
Posted 10:45am Sept 18
+3.5 is listed basically everywhere.
30. Colorado St -9 UTEP (50)…………MEGALOCKS line – Colorado St -10
Vegas Implied Score – Colorado St 29.5 UTEP 20.5
Our base case projection that Colorado St is “HOT TRASH” hasn’t changed after last week’s beating at the hands of the Buffs and UTEP showed a bit of life last week in their cover vs Liberty….Not interested in either side…..Total players take note that there might be quite a bit of wind in this game so if you see the total dropping at some point it may be that WEATHER SHARPS are on the case.
No leanage
31. Utah -2 Oklahoma St (54)…………MEGALOCKS line – Utah -3
Vegas Implied Score – Utah 28 Oklahoma St 26
This is one of the best games of the day as the Utes (apparently) have starting QB Cam Rising back to lead the offense and that’s good news because Utah will be in bad shape should Rising be unable to go…..Utah has the much better defense and we also give them a coaching edge even tho Mike Gundy is also one of our favorites and a rock solid HC…..Oklahoma’s St defense is a major concern don’t forget they gave up a billion yards to WOO PIG and we still don’t trust QB Alan Bowman vs a stout stop unit like what Utah brings to the table….Prefer the Utes but there’s a greater-than-zero chance that Rising is still hurt and/or he breaks his thumb before the game whilst sending a text message.
No leanage
32. North Texas -9 Wyoming (56)…………MEGALOCKS line – North Texas -7
Vegas Implied Score – North Texas 32.5 Wyoming 23.5
This BAD BOY is a tough handicap….The team that can’t move the football or score (Wyoming, #134 YPP, yup, dead last FBS) vs a team that plays horrific defense (North Texas #127 total defense, just gave up 52 points in ONE half vs Texas Tech)…..Not sure where to go with this one.
No leanage
33. Jacksonville St -6 Southern Miss (60)…………MEGALOCKS line – Jacksonville St -7
Vegas Implied Score – Jacksonville St 33 Southern Miss 27
Jacksonville St has been one of the biggest disappointments of the 2024 season as they were expected to at least get to a bowl game and be a longshot contender behind Liberty in CUSA….They’ve looked horrible so far and come into this one with a mark of 0-3 after losing to Eastern Michigan (2OT) last week….Southern Miss is a total GREASE FIRE but they’ve got enough raw talent in places to potentially stick around vs a team that has horrible line play and a ghastly QB situation…..Have to take a hard pass.
No leanage
34. Auburn -3 Arkansas (56.5)…………MEGALOCKS line – Auburn -3
Vegas Implied Score – Auburn 29.75 Arkansas 26.75
Neither of these teams inspire much confidence and each of them has played one decent opponent….Auburn lost at home to Cal….WOO PIG put up well over 600 (!) yards in a road loss to Oklahoma St…..Edge WOO PIG…..We prefer the Razorbacks but Auburn may have found something at QB last week as something called a “Hank Brown” threw 4 TD passes vs New Mexico…..Arkansas HC Sam Pittman is 10-3 ATS as a road dog and we cashed with him in this very same point spread role vs Oklahoma St….Line looks fair but let’s see if some MOB STEAM takes the number to +3.5/+4. Stay tuned!
Holding pattern – Waiting for +3.5/+4 for potential action.
Update – pass.
35. Washington -10.5 Northwestern (42.5)…………MEGALOCKS line – Washington -8.5
Vegas Implied Score – Washington 26.5 Northwestern 16
The Huskies got off to a 2-0 start after taking care of a pair of TOMATO CANS but they were upset by Washington St last week in the Apple Cup…..New starting QB Will Rogers has been very good (77%, 6-0 TD to INT) and RB Jonah Coleman has provided great production on the ground (306, 3 TD)…..Northwestern has been stingy on defense giving up 6 pts to Miami Ohio, 13 pts in regulation time to Duke, and 7 points to Eastern Illinois….Washington’s offense is the best they’ve faced but they’re no JUGGERNAUT and recall that they only put up 30 points at home vs Eastern Michigan…..Northwestern has a legit #1 RB in Cam Porter (234, 3 TD) and some sneaky good THROW GAME weaponry…..and the SECRET WEAPON flying under the radar is new starting QB Jack Lausch who is a yuuuge upgrade for the air attack and he’s very nimble on the ground….Northwestern HC David Braun is 7-2 ATS in conference play and the Cats are 24-13 ATS L10Y as road underdogs.
Lean – Northwestern +10.5
Posted 4:00pm Sept 18
+10.5 is listed virtually everywhere. There are one or two rogue +11s in the market if you shop around.
36. Louisiana Tech -3 Tulsa (57)…………MEGALOCKS line – Louisiana Tech -1
Vegas Implied Score – Louisiana Tech 30 Tulsa 27
Both teams are hideous but we still believe that Tulsa is the better squad despite their shellacking at the hands of Oklahoma St last week….Impossible to back either team at the window straight up but it’s not impossible to think that the Golden Hurricane could be part of our SWEET ML UNDERDOG PARLAY ACTION posted on Friday.
No leanage
37. Cincinnati -3.5 Houston (46.5)…………MEGALOCKS line – Cincinnati -4
Vegas Implied Score – Cincinnati 25 Houston 21.5
This is a sneaky-intriguing Big 12 match-up as Cincinnati and Houston come together in a spot where both teams feel like they can get a win….Cincinnati could be 3-0 but for their collapse vs Pitt in week two….Houston got on the board last week whilst destroying Rice and keep in mind that they only lost 16-12 (!) at Oklahoma….Houston’s defense has been really good and Cincinnati has sputtered at times…..Might be an ‘under’ type of play lurking in here, we’ll get back to you by Friday.
Holding pattern – Further research needed on “lurking under plays”. **
** congrats Rice/Houston under players from last week
UPDATE – pass
38. West Virginia -2.5 Kansas (56.5)…………MEGALOCKS line – West Virginia -3
Vegas Implied Score – West Virginia 29.5 Kansas 27
It’s a sad day because we must admit that West Virginia is NOT WHO WE THOUGHT THEY WERE…..They bent us over the HAY BALE last week vs Pitt by blowing a 10-point lead in the 4Q and their defense is just not up to snuff….We know that Kansas is overrated ** and QB Jalon Daniels is having a rough time but the defense is still ok and the Jayhawks boast a yuuuuge coaching edge.
** congrats UNLV backers from last week
No leanage
39. Oregon St -4.5 Purdue (50.5)…………MEGALOCKS line – Oregon St -3.5
Vegas Implied Score – Oregon St 27.5 Purdue 23
Both teams are mystery items at this point in the season and both squads are coming off blowout losses….NICE BEAVER got smoked by Oregon in the CIVIL WAR (L 49-14) whilst Purdue got blown to bits by Notre Dame (L 66-7)….Purdue has the QB, Oregon St has a pair of 200-yard rushers and home field advantage…..This one is a puzzler.
No leanage
40. Northern Illinois -14 Buffalo (43)…………MEGALOCKS line – Northern Illinois -13
Vegas Implied Score – Northern Illinois 28.5 Buffalo 14.5
Don’t look now but the Buffalo Bulls are 2-1 and they roll into Huskie Stadium off a 34-3 romp over UMass…..The last time we saw Northern Illinois they provided an all-time SHOCK the WORLD moment by taking down Notre Dame on their home field….This is the start of MAC play for both teams…..The Huskies are a clear contender in a wide-open MAC but note that HC Thomas Hammock is just 4-12 ATS (!) as a home favorite and they’ve been living the dream since the upset win over the Irish….This is Buffalo HC Pete Lembo’s first season with the Bulls but he was 13-9 ATS as a road underdog with Ball St…..Buffalo got the THROW GAME going just a wee bit last week…..A bit of interest in the Bulls who appear to be a scrappy bunch but we’d want a number around -17 to take the plunge and here we are.
No leanage
41. Notre Dame -28 Miami Ohio (44)…………MEGALOCKS line – Notre Dame -26
Vegas Implied Score – Notre Dame 36 Miami Ohio 8
You know the Redhawks will be up for the trip to Notre Dame but they’ve already been physically beat up by a pair of Power 4 teams (Northwestern, Cincinnati) and as is often the case with Miami Ohio, they’re most concerned with MAC play which starts in a few weeks…..Tough spot for Miami off the rivalry loss to Cincinnati but the match-up is the bigger problem….Northern Illinois stayed in the game with Notre Dame because they could run the football (#1 MAC)…..Miami has no run game whatsoever (last MAC) and it’ll be tough for the offense to stay on the field and sustain drives….Note that the Irish allowed less than 4 YPP (!) to both Texas A&M and Purdue…..Notre Dame has a yuuuge game with LUA-VUH up next.
No leanage.
42. Toledo -2.5 Western Kentucky (62)…………MEGALOCKS line – Toledo -1.5
Vegas Implied Score – Toledo 32.25 Purdue 29.75
The TOPPERS looked pretty good last week disposing of MTSU in the 100 MILES OF HATE rivalry game and new starting QB Caden Veltkamp thru 5 (!) TD passes…..They got roasted for over 400Y (!) thru the air tho and that’s a bit of a worry given that WHITE HOT Toledo is coming to town off their blasting of Mississippi St and Rockets’ QB Tucker Gleason has a sparkling 9-0 TD to INT mark….Also note that the Rockets have tallied 5 sacks in each of the L2G…..It’s not easy to beat WKU on the road and it was only two weeks ago that Toledo was dominated by UMass (!) at home but somehow won the game by 15 points…..Might be tempted to grab the home dog if the line gets to +3.
Holding pattern – Waiting for +3 for potential action.
UPDATE – pass
43. Fresno St -14 New Mexico (59)………..MEGALOCKS line – Fresno St -14
Vegas Implied Score – Fresno St 36.5 New Mexico 22.5
The Bulldogs have won two in a row since their opening week loss at Michigan but those two victories came at home against Sacramento St and New Mexico St….This week they travel to face a Lobos squad that plays zero defense BUT they can move the football behind dual-threat specimen QB Devon Dampier…..Fresno St has a yuuuuge date with UNLV up next that just might be an elimination game in the Mountain West….Just survive and advance, bay-bee…..Line looks spot on.
No leanage
44. Texas Tech -2.5 Arizona St (58.5)…………MEGALOCKS line – Texas Tech -1
Vegas Implied Score – Texas Tech 30.5 Arizona St 28
The Red Raiders took out a lot of their frustrations last week putting up over FIDDY points in the first half (!) in a romp over North Texas…..It was great to see star RB Tahj Brooks back out and playing well in that game and QB B Morton tossed 4 TD passes…..They’ve got a legit home field advantage but they’re still very banged up across the roster….Tempted to give the Red Raiders a shot but Arizona St is an impossible fade right now given their 3-0 start and QB Sam Leavitt even showed off some THROW GAME skills last week in the exciting win over Texas St…..Tough call.
No leanage
45. Louisville -10.5 Georgia Tech (57.5)…………MEGALOCKS line – Louisville -10
Vegas Implied Score – Louisville 34 Georgia Tech 23.5
It’s been a strange scheduling start for LUA-VUH as they’ve only played two games (bye last week) and have roasted a pair of turds to open the season (Austin Peay, Jacksonville St)….They’ve looked great but it’s hard to know right now if this is a good LUA-VUH team or a REALLY good squad…..We feel good about their young RB corps and they’ve got the better defense….The Yellow Jackets are 3-1 with their only loss being a 3-point defeat on the road at Syracuse….The win over Florida St doesn’t look as great now but what can you do…..The Cards are the more balanced team but the Yellow Jackets are 7-3 ATS as a road dog under HC Brent Key and they gave LUA-VUH all they could handle in LY’s neutral site affair (L39-34)….Brent Key is alos 11-6 ATS in conference play….Prefer the road team catching the points but we’ll see if a +11 pops up.
Holding pattern – Waiting for +11 for potential action.
UPDATE – pass
46. Colorado -2 Baylor (51)…………MEGALOCKS line – Colorado -1
Vegas Implied Score – Colorado 26.5 Baylor 24.5
It’s like we’ve been stewing in the fragrance of SCENTED CANDLES around these parts…..Why you ask?….Because we’re at peace with ourselves in terms of when to back Colorado (like last week vs Colorado St)…..Play on them vs a) a crappy team AND b) before the lack of depth on the roster becomes an issue due to injury…..Baylor is definitely not a crappy team and we’d love to see more of QB Sawyer Robertson…..Feels like a coin toss.
No leanage
47. Memphis -9 Navy (49)…………MEGALOCKS line – Memphis -10.5
Vegas Implied Score – Memphis 29 Navy 20
Memphis is one of the clear favorites in the Group of Five to get into the CFP and they’ve done nothing wrong starting the season at 3-0 including last week’s win at Florida St (!)…..The offense has been a bit underwhelming but the defense has exceeded expectations in our eyes….You know we’re higher than market on Navy this year and they’ve started 2-0 and come into this BAD BOY off a bye week….However, the Midshipmen are taking a yuuuuge rise in class after facing Bucknell and Temple…..Navy gave Memphis all they could handle on the road LY (L 28-24)…..The issue with this game is that the line has been hit by MOBSTERS and is now below the key number of 10…..We haven’t seen this much unexpected STEAM since the opening scene of Forrest Hump….Survive and advance game for the Tigers.
No leanage
48. Tulane -2.5 Louisiana (53.5)…………MEGALOCKS line – Tulane -4
Vegas Implied Score – Tulane 28 Louisiana 25.5
The Green Wave are the better team in this match-up but they’re coming off a pair (!) of tough games vs Power 4 opposition (Kansas St, Oklahoma) and they’ve got a massive conference date with USF up next….How much can they have in the tank for this one?…..Louisiana is scrappy team but we don’t know how good they are after starting 2-0 vs a pair of stiffs (Grambling, Kennesaw St)….Was hoping for a line a bit higher than where we are to take the dog….Maybe we’ll add the Cajuns into our Friday ML Underdog Extravaganza?
No leanage
49. Army -7 Rice (43)…………MEGALOCKS line – Army -6
Vegas Implied Score – Army 25 Rice 18
The Black Knights are off to a 2-0 start and they’ve already booked their first AAC win (over FAU)……The rushing attack is humming (390 YPG, #1 FBS) and they’ve only allowed 14 total points in 2G….Rice’s offense has been a HOT MESS with new starting QB EJ Warner struggling mightily….The Rice pass defense has been decent but that doesn’t matter vs Army…The run D has been sketchy (178 yards vs Sam Houston, 237 vs Houston) and that’s not good when Army is up next….Line is too high to grab the Black Knights….Will poke around in the totals market on Friday and see what’s up.
Holding pattern – Sniffing around for a total play.
Lean – Rice TT under 18 (implied)
Posted 4:28pm Sept 20
17.5 is the most common number where team totals are sold. An alternate play for those that don’t have team totals would be Army -7.
50. Virginia Tech -3.5 Rutgers (44.5)…………MEGALOCKS line – Virginia Tech -5
Vegas Implied Score – Virginia Tech 24 Rutgers 20.5
We’d love to back the Hokies in this spot but they haven’t looked that great to say the least…..They lost to Vanderbilt in the opener and followed that up with MEH performances vs Marshall and Old Dominion….This will be their toughest game of the season as Rutgers knows how to CHOP WOOD and win games by running the ball and playing sound defense…..The Scarlet Knights have only played Howard and Akron so we don’t really know how good they are….Coaching edge goes to Rutgers….A bit of line value with Virginia Tech but we’ll take a pass.
No leanage
51. Boston College -6.5 Michigan St (45.5)…………MEGALOCKS line – Boston College -6.5
Vegas Implied Score – Boston College 26 Michigan St 19.5
Michigan St has been WHO WE THOUGHT THEY WERE and have spurted out to a 3-0 start…..Winning at Maryland was a nice feather in the cap but this will be Sparty’s toughest test to date….The defense is much improved and whilst QB Aidan Chiles has made more than his share of mistakes there’s no doubt that he’s a star on the rise….Boston College smoked Florida St on the road and gave Missouri a good game in Columbia (L 27-21)…..Line looks about right for a game that’s one of the most underrated on the entire card……Note that this is the famous RED BANDANA game for Boston College which should have the home crowd fired up.
No leanage
52. Kansas St -6.5 BYU (49.5)…………MEGALOCKS line – Kansas St -7.5
Vegas Implied Score – Kansas St 28 BYU 21.5
The Wildcats stand at 3-0 after smashing Arizona last week and they also have a road win over a sneaky-good Tulane team on their list of conquests….QB Avery Johnson has displayed improved throwing skills and he’s impossibly mobile (187, 6.7)….RBs DJ Giddens and Dylan Edwards are a handful when combined with the rushing ability at QB (team 7.0 YPC) so the BYU defense will have their hands full…..Cougars’ QB Jake Retzlaff has been decent but he’s had issues with accuracy at times (3 INT)…Our biggest concern for the BYU offense is a RB room that’s been banged up and not very productive……BYU is also 3-0 and this is an important early season tilt for the Big 12…..Prefer the road team especially since HC Chris Klieman is a point spread covering machine (42-23, 65%) (!)……Need to dig just a wee bit more.
Holding pattern – Our Kansas St INSIDERS doing a wee bit more work.
UPDATE – pass.
‘Official play’ means that this is one of our favorite plays of the week (perceived value, match-up, coaching, trends, etc.). We’re currently investing 25% more on these plays vs our ‘leans’. We’ll normally have two or three of these choices per week.
‘Lean’ means that we’re placing a standard size wager on the game. We’ll normally have about ten of these plays per week. Many members prefer to pick and choose amongst these games when finalizing their weekly investment cards so we’ll continue to refer to them as ‘leans’.
‘No leanage’ means that we won’t have any action on the game.
Team totals – We’ll list the implied number based on the point spread and total when our analysis is posted. If a team total ends up being an ‘official play’ we’ll post a widely available number at the time of pick release.