Week 4 – Tennessee at Oklahoma
posted September 20
The Game
WHOA, NELLIE.
It’s one of the most anticipated games of the early season schedule as Tennessee travels to Norman to face Oklahoma in their first ever SEC game. The Volunteers have moved like a TREMENDOUS MACHINE whilst jumping out to a 3-0 start. The Sooners are also an undefeated outfit but they haven’t looked that sharp. Yet.
Who comes out on top in this yuuuge Saturday night showdown?
The Details
Tennessee -6.5 Oklahoma (57.5)
MEGALOCKS LINE – Tennessee -6.5
“Vegas” Implied Projected Score: Tennessee 32 Oklahoma 25.5
Tennessee offense vs Oklahoma defense
The Volunteers rank #2 in the nation in total offense (639 YPG) and #1 in scoring offense (64 PPG) and they’ve done it thru the air behind emerging star QB Nico Iamaleava and a devastating rushing attack led by star RB Dylan Sampson (357, 7.9, 9 TD). Tennessee is a run-first offense (336 YPG, 7.0 YPC) that loves to take deep shots (10 yards-per-attempt) so the Oklahoma defense is gonna have their hands full. The Sooners have been solid on defense so far (#27 total defense, #22 run D, #54 pass efficiency D) whilst posting 11 (!) sacks (#6 FBS). Tennessee hasn’t faced a defense anywhere close to the quality of Oklahoma’s stop unit whilst it’s also true that Oklahoma will be facing their sternest test by a wide margin. Tennessee will be able to do some damage thanks to their impeccable balance and their QB is more than capable of gashing the Oklahoma defense with his legs. We’re confident that Oklahoma can do a decent job in the trenches but their team speed on defense will be severely tested on Saturday night. They’ve got to force Tennessee into mistakes and find a way to get Nico on the ground (just 3 sacks allowed in 3G).
Oklahoma offense vs Tennessee defense
This is the side of the football that appears to greatly favor Tennessee as the Sooners haven’t posted 400Y (!) of total offense in any of their three games. They struggled to move the ball vs Temple (were +6 in turnovers), did nothing vs Houston (252Y)(!) and were life and death vs Tulane last week (349Y). All three of those games were at home. To make matters worse, Oklahoma is averaging just 4.86 (!) yards-per-play (#116) and Tennessee has one of the toughest front sevens in the SEC (3.07 YPP, #2). It’s very true that Tennessee has dealt with some dreadful offenses but they didn’t allow NC State to do anything at all and note that the Vols haven’t allowed a defensive TD in FOUR games dating back to the 35-CACK win over Iowa in last year’s Citrus Bowl. Oklahoma hasn’t been able to hit many big plays and their offensive line has had major issues (3 sacks allowed in each game; 20 all of last season). It looks like the WR room is finally getting healthier this week but the THROW GAME has been a disappointment. Note that their top-three WR/TE weapons are averaging an impossibly-pathetic 7.7, 8.0, and 9.7 YPC. QB Jackson Arnold is averaging just 5.6 YPA. If Tennessee has a weakness on defense it might be on the back end so QB Jackson Arnold will have to up his game and be at his best in this contest.
Trends, Intangibles, and More!
This is a meaningful game for Tennessee HC Josh Heupel who led the Sooners to a National Championship (!) back in 2000 as their starting QB (2nd in Heisman voting)…..Heupel spent several years on the Oklahoma coaching staff and left on somewhat bitter terms when his OC contract was not renewed….They hired Lincoln Riley to replace him…….#Revenge ?…..A lot is being made of the fact that this is QB Nico Iamaleava’s first start in a true road game (in a very hostile environment) so we’ll see how things go….Oklahoma QB Jackson Arnold hasn’t played in a big game like this either but it’ll help to be playing in front of the home crowd…..TREND GUY will tell you that Oklahoma hasn’t been a home underdog since before the Civil War, or something like that, but when you come back with, “But how long has Oklahoma been in the SEC?”, all you get is a blank stare…..Kind of like when you explain to Karen that the three masks she’s wearing are doing more harm than good, and that men can’t get pregnant……We should have perfect weather conditions for this game which is fantastic.
Summary
The most underrated unit in this game is the Tennessee defense. The most disappointing unit has clearly been the Oklahoma offense. We expect Tennessee to play a relatively clean game and make more explosive plays.
Conclusion
Official pick – Tennessee -7 -105. Sent 4:55pm Sept 20.
-6.5 -120 or better is also widely available. We’ll go with -7 for grading purposes. That’s the consensus number.
‘Official play’ means that this is one of our favorite plays of the week (perceived value, match-up, coaching, trends, etc.). We’re currently investing 25% more on these plays vs our ‘leans’. We’ll normally have two or three of these choices per week.
‘Lean’ means that we’re placing a standard size wager on the game. We’ll normally have about ten of these plays per week. Many members prefer to pick and choose amongst these games when finalizing their weekly investment cards so we’ll continue to refer to them as ‘leans’.
‘No leanage’ means that we won’t have any action on the game.
Team totals – We’ll list the implied number based on the point spread and total when our analysis is posted. If a team total ends up being an ‘official play’ we’ll post a widely available number at the time of pick release.