Week 5 – Georgia at Alabama
posted September 27
The Game
WHOA, NELLIE!
It’s the game of the year so far as the mighty Georgia Bulldogs travel to face Alabama in a Saturday night battle. ROLL TIDE has crushed and killed their three opponents to the tune of 147-26 (!) although they got all they could handle from USF before shaking loose in the 4th quarter. Georgia murdered Clemson in week one (W 34-3) but that game was only 6-CACK at the half and 13-3 with six minutes left in the 3rd stanza. The Bulldogs were fortunate to get by Kentucky in their last effort (W 13-12) as the Wildcats outgained them, outrushed them, won the first down battle 23-12, and might have had a chance to win the game late if it weren’t for SIMPLE JACK coaching on the Kentucky side. Georgia has outscored their opposition 95-18 and they haven’t allowed a TD in three games. That’s sick!
A lot at stake. Both teams off a bye. Plenty of hate. Let’s goooo!
The Details
Georgia -1 ROLL TIDE (49.5)
MEGALOCKS LINE – Pick ’em
“Vegas” Implied Projected Score: Georgia 25.25 ROLL TIDE 24.25
ROLL TIDE offense vs Georgia defense
The path to success this week for Alabama will be to get things done on the ground behind the 1-2 RB punch of Jam Miller (265, 9.1) and Justice Haynes (165, 8.7) and the devastating running ability of QB Jalen Milroe (156, 6 TD). Milroe and the rushing attack won the battle in the trenches by small margin last year and they’ll able to hold their own in this game especially given that the offensive line is healthy and a much more talented version than what we saw vs South Florida. Milroe is averaging 11.3 (!) YPA and has the best weapon in the game at his disposal in freshman WR Ryan Williams who’s been phenomenal in 2024 (10-285, 28.5, 4 TD). Georgia’s defense is immensely talented and well-coached so ROLL TIDE will have to hope for a big play or two in the THROW GAME after the ground game gets working a little bit. Milroe hasn’t thrown an INT yet this season (8-0 TD to INT) but Georgia can force anyone into mistakes with their team speed and athleticism.
Georgia defense vs ROLL TIDE defense
Georgia’s rushing attack has had a tough time getting rolling this season and they’re ranked #13 in the SEC in rushing (146 YPG) and have only posted four TDs on the ground (40 during the 2023 campaign). The good news is that those stats are skewed due to playing the tough defenses of Clemson and Kentucky. The bad news? ROLL TIDE has a pretty good run defense last time we checked. Georgia has an extremely deep offensive line but they didn’t look very good vs Kentucky and they’ll be without star guard Tate Ratledge who got injured in that game. Alabama’s secondary is the theoretical weak link on defense so it’ll be interesting to see how much damage star QB Carson Beck can do thru the air (68%, 7-0 TD to INT, sacked only once). The THROW GAME has definitely been less-menacing without star TE Brock Bowers and WR Ladd McConkey who were yuuuuge for the Dawgs in 2023 and it remains to be seen if someone will be able to step up at WR and book some chunk plays for the offense.
Trends, Intangibles, and More!
TREND GUY is turning himself into pretzels for this one and personally we think all of this stuff is a pile of DOO DOO when it comes to predicting the outcome of this particular game, but here you go…….Alabama is 8-1 L9 vs Georgia, the favorite in the series is 3-9 ATS L12, Georgia HC Kirby Smart is 20-11 ATS as a road favorite, ROLL TIDE HC Kalen DeBoer is 28-20-1 ATS all-time….Our personal favorite?…..ROLL TIDE hasn’t been a home underdog since 2007!….That’s an extremely relevant handicapping factoid much like Oklahoma hadn’t been a home underdog since the FAKE MOON LANDING so they couldn’t lose to Tennessee last week!….Oh, and don’t forget the “revenge” angle as the Bulldogs must be “mad” that they lost last year to Alabama….We’re pretty sure both teams are gonna give us an A+ effort ….You know we’re not CROWD WILL BE ROCKING GUY and believe the home field advantage is essentially zero when Georgia is the road team….Believe what you will, tho…..Thankfully, the weather looks good for kickoff and we hope that everyone in the area of the hurricane stays safe and takes care of family and friends!
Summary
Georgia has lost two games since the start of the 2021 season! That’s insane. The funny thing is that both of those losses came vs ROLL TIDE, and one of those defeats was just five games ago. Alabama QB Jalen Milroe is a better player now. ROLL TIDE has better weaponry. The Tide won the battle in the trenches in last year’s SEC Championship Game (by a small margin, but it was real) and there’s no reason to think they can’t do it again.
Georgia has bounced back from stinky efforts like the Kentucky game many times before, but they were REALLY bad vs the Wildcats are we’re not sure they’ve got the ability to just flip a switch and beat one of the best teams in the nation.
Conclusion
Official play: Alabama +1 -109
Sent 10:25am Sept 27
+1 is the consensus. +1.5 is relatively easy to find.
‘Official play’ means that this is one of our favorite plays of the week (perceived value, match-up, coaching, trends, etc.). We’re currently investing 25% more on these plays vs our ‘leans’. We’ll normally have two or three of these choices per week.
‘Lean’ means that we’re placing a standard size wager on the game. We’ll normally have about ten of these plays per week. Many members prefer to pick and choose amongst these games when finalizing their weekly investment cards so we’ll continue to refer to them as ‘leans’.
‘No leanage’ means that we won’t have any action on the game.
Team totals – We’ll list the implied number based on the point spread and total when our analysis is posted. If a team total ends up being an ‘official play’ we’ll post a widely available number at the time of pick release.