Week 5 QUICK TAKES – College Football Predictions
Here are some QUICK TAKES on the games that did not make the cut for a longer write-up this week.
Let’s go!
UPDATE 4:50pm FRIDAY – We’re all done for the week. Smallest card of the year but the games are just really tough. At least in our view! Enjoy the games!
Handy index: Quick Takes
‘Official’ picks in blue. ‘Leans’ in green. Waiting on a number or information to make a potential play in orange.
- Oregon at UCLA
- Mississippi St at Texas
- MTSU at Memphis
- San Diego St at Central Michigan
- Army at Temple (Thursday)
- Massachusetts at Miami Ohio
- Virginia Tech at Miami (Friday)
- New Mexico at New Mexico St (added Sept 25, 2:40pm)
- Iowa St at Houston
- South Alabama at LSU
- Eastern Michigan at Kent St
- Air Force at Wyoming
- Arizona at Utah
- Charlotte at Rice
- Washington at Rutgers (Friday)
- Stanford at Clemson
- Wisconsin at USC
- ULM at Troy
- Akron at Ohio
- Colorado at UCF
- Western Michigan at Marshall
- UTSA at East Carolina
- TCU at Kansas
- Liberty at Appalachian St
- Maryland at Indiana
- North Carolina at Duke
- Ball St at James Madison
- Fresno St at UNLV
- Kentucky at Ole Miss
- Nebraska at Purdue
- Old Dominion at Bowling Green
- Cincinnati at Texas Tech
- Northern Illinois at NC State
- Oklahoma St at Kansas St
- Louisiana at Wake Forest
- Ohio St at Michigan St
- Illinois at Penn St
- Georgia Southern at Georgia St
- BYU at Baylor
- Texas St vs Sam Houston
- Minnesota at Michigan
- Washington St at Boise St
- Louisiana Tech at FIU
- Florida St at SMU
- USF at Tulane
- Tulsa at North Texas
- Louisville at Notre Dame
- Western Kentucky at Boston College
- Oklahoma at Auburn
- Texas A&M vs Arkansas
- Navy at UAB
QUICK TAKES
1. Oregon -24 UCLA (55.5)…………MEGALOCKS line – Oregon -26
Vegas Implied Score – Oregon 39.75 UCLA 15.75
QUACK QUACK finally awoke from their slumber a few weeks ago and pasted Oregon St (W 49-14) and now they roll into the feces-encrusted communist HELLSCAPE that is commonly referred to as “Los Angeles” to battle the Bruins…..We expect Oregon to get better as the season rolls along….UCLA played a fine half of football at LSU last week (tied 17-17 at half) before falling to the Tigers by a respectable score of 34-17…..QB Ethan Garbers had a decent game…..The Bruins are one of the worst teams in the Big Ten but they might be just a tad better than we think as their schedule hasn’t been easy (at Hawaii, CFP-bound Indiana Hoosiers **, at LSU)…..Line looks about right…..Need to see a second decent game from Oregon before we pounce.
** Fact check: Not impossible
No leanage
2. Texas -38.5 Mississippi St (61.5)…………MEGALOCKS line – Texas -35.5
Vegas Implied Score – Texas 50 Mississippi St 11.5
Yawn. Another TOMATO CAN for the Longhorns and they can name the score once again…..They’ve already smoked teams by scores of 52-CACK, 56-7, and 51-3….Mississippi St lost their starting QB but we have to believe they’ll put up more resistance than scrubs like Colorado St…..Texas is 4-0 ATS (+51) and the price to back them at the windows continues to creep higher. We’ll pass.
No leanage
3. Memphis -24.5 MTSU (61.5)…………MEGALOCKS line – Memphis -26
Vegas Implied Score – Memphis 43 MTSU 18.5
Could only look to the favorite in this spot as the Blue Raiders are one of the worst teams in the FBS…..They do however have a legit THROW GAME behind QB Nick Vattiato who’s already thrown for over 1,000 yards…..Memphis just gave up 56 points and about 28,000 yards to Navy in their loss last week and note that HC Ryan Silverfield is just 7-12-1 ATS (1-0 this year) in the role of home chalk…..Not interested.
No leanage
4. Central Michigan -1 San Diego St (54)…………MEGALOCKS line – Central Michigan -1.5
Vegas Implied Score – Central Michigan 27.5 San Diego St 26.5
San Diego St has been struggling to say the least getting the ball moving on offense but this is a yuuuuge drop in class after playing Oregon St and California….Central Michigan is one of the worst teams in the MAC (not Kent St level of ‘bad’, but they’re ‘bad’) and the QB situation is hideous….At least they rushed for over 300Y last week….HC Jim McElwain is 20-8 SU at home with FIRE UP CHIPS…..Looks like a coin toss.
No leanage
5. Army -13.5 Temple (45.5)…………MEGALOCKS line – Army -11
Vegas Implied Score – Army 29.5 Temple 16
Temple displayed a few GREEN SHOOTS of growth vs Oklahoma (378 yards allowed) and Coastal Carolina (287 yards allowed) and they showed last week what they could do if they don’t puke all over themselves with turnovers…..They smoked Utah St 45-29 and they may have found a QB in Evan Simon who had a big game vs the Aggies (271Y, 5 TD) (!)…..They also rushed for 180 yards in that game….Army is looking good but they’ve only played Lehigh, a disgusting FAU squad, and an ABOMINATION called the Rice Owls….Army is 5-8 ATS L10Y as an away favorite….Think the Owls can keep this one within the number as long as they don’t get loose with the football again (-11 t/o margin first 3G, +1 last week, -3 in loss to Navy)…..We trust Simon at QB more than the guy called Forrest Brock.
Lean – Temple +13.5
Posted 10:00am Sept 23
Note – Our top secret MOB STEAM indicator thinks the line might touch +14 but it’s more likely to head down a wee bit below the current market price. You might be able to wait and get a +14 but we’ll grab it now.
6. Miami Ohio -18 Massachusetts (47)…………MEGALOCKS line – Miami Ohio -16.5
Vegas Implied Score – Miami Ohio 32.5 Massachusetts 14.5
Massachusetts has only played one good game (outgained Toledo on the road BIGLY in a 15-point loss) and three stinky ones….Miami Ohio has played one of the consistently toughest schedules (at NW, Cincinnati, at ND) and they’ve got their biggest game of the regular season up next (at Toledo)…..UMass is gonna have trouble scoring but the line looks about right.
No leanage
7. Miami -19 Virginia Tech (55.5)…………MEGALOCKS line – Miami -16.5
Vegas Implied Score – Miami 37.25 Virginia Tech 18.25
YOUR Miami Hurricanes have gotten off to a very hot start scoring 41/56/62/50 and that’s good news for long-suffering Canes fans but there’s a lot of football left to be played and this will be their toughest test to date…..even tho Virginia Tech hasn’t looked very good in any of their four games compared to expectations…..The Hokies have a legit #1 RB in Bhayshul Tuten (391, 5.8, 7 TD), a crafty #1 WR in Jaylin Lane, and a monster QB in Kyron Drones who can pick up the tough yards on the ground and keep the chains moving….The defense has been good (not great) but they’ve booked 13 sacks….Tough to back the road team even tho the spread is getting a bit out of control as Miami is dialed in right now…..The better idea might be to look at a Miami TT under as it’ll be tough to just roll their helmets out there and score almost 40 points……Need to think about that for a bit.
Holding pattern – Mulling over a team total play as per above.
UPDATE – no leanage
8. New Mexico -9 New Mexico St (58)…………MEGALOCKS line – New Mexico -9.5
Vegas Implied Score – New Mexico 33.5 New Mexico St 24.5
The RIO GRANDE RIVALRY is upon us with both programs struggling to win football games….New Mexico has a legit dual-threat specimen at QB in Devon Dampier but the defense is one of the worst concoctions ever assembled (#132 YPP)….New Mexico St was one quarter of football away from upsetting Liberty but they’ve looked bad for most of the season…..It’s a rivalry game tho and the Aggies have covered 7L8.
No leanage
UPDATE
Lean – New Mexico -9
Posted 2:40pm Sept 25
-9 is the market consensus
Upon further review, New Mexico St is horrible (hot take) and have put up 138/152 yards of offense in their L2G vs Fresno St and Sam Houston…..New Mexico is getting better every week and they’ve played three tough opponents in a row and didn’t look bad….471 yards of offense vs Arizona, outgained just 503-448 by Auburn (!), outgained Fresno St 485-345 (!) last week and only allowed 93 rushing yards….Are they getting better on D?…..New Mexico St’s QB are beyond horrible and they’re #133 in passing efficiency.
9. Iowa St -13.5 Houston (43.5)…………MEGALOCKS line – Iowa St -14
Vegas Implied Score – Iowa St 28.5 Houston 15
Iowa St has been WHO WE THOUGHT THEY WERE so far and the win over Iowa (W 20-19, 361-303 yard edge) looks even better than it did a few weeks ago….They might be the most balanced team in the Big 12 behind Utah (assuming their QB is healthy) but they’re not the most explosive outfit around when playing decent defenses….Houston held UNLV to 311 yards, Oklahoma (!) to 252 on the road, and 159 to Rice….Houston was awful last week vs Cincinnati (L 34-CACK) but they were (-3) in turnovers….Prefer the favorite but this might be a survive and advance type of game.
No leanage
10. LSU 21 South Alabama (65)…………MEGALOCKS line – LSU -21
Vegas Implied Score – LSU 43 South Alabama 22
LSU has had to battle more than expected in their last two games vs South Cackalacky and UCLA and now they’ve got a Sun Belt team coming to town in South Alabama who just destroyed Appalachian St on their home field (W 48-14)…..The Tigers have had trouble running the ball (3.9 YPC) but the THROW GAME has been excellent….South Alabama can SCORE the FOOTBALL behind star QB Gio Lopez but their defense is gonna give up a lot of points….LSU has a bye week up next…..Note that their best defensive player Harold Perkins is now OFY due to injury…..South Alabama has a yuuuge conference game on deck vs Arkansas St…..Jags will be GEEKED UP for this one but it’s never easy to play in Baton Rouge.
No leanage
11. Eastern Michigan -14 Kent St (48)…………MEGALOCKS line – Eastern Michigan -14
Vegas Implied Score – Eastern Michigan 31 Kent St 17
Kent St is the worst team in the country….but….Can we give them just a little bit of grace for playing a ridiculous schedule so far?….at Pitt, at Tennessee, at Penn St…..Eastern Michigan has performed better than expected but HC Chris Creighton is just 10-19 ATS as a home favorite…..If Kent St is REALLY that horrible you might wanna consider an alternate line at your favorite book (-16.5, -20.5, etc.)
No leanage
12. Air Force -4 Wyoming (36)…………MEGALOCKS line – Air Force -3
Vegas Implied Score – Air Force 20 Wyoming 16
The FRONT RANGE RIVALRY is a game that we have always looked forward to watching…..Old school….lots of hate…..But this year the two teams are horrific and a combined 0-7 in the win-loss column…..Wyoming will be happy to know that the home team has won 8L9 meetings and the Pokes are also 12-2 ATS L14 vs the FLYBOYS…..You at least know what you’re getting from Air Force (crappy triple option offense, decent D) but we’re not laying more than a FG.
No leanage
13. Utah -12.5 Arizona (50.5)…………MEGALOCKS line – Utah -13.5
Vegas Implied Score – Utah 31.5 Arizona 19
Easy game to pass….We have no idea how good (or bad) Arizona is this season after smoking a pair of scrubs (New Mexico, Northern Arizona) and getting killed by Kansas St…..And don’t get us started on the CAM RISING SOAP OPERA…..will he play? won’t he play? did he break his ankle tying his shoelace?…..It’s been going on for over a year and we’ll just cheer for Utah to come thru for FUTURES CLUB MEMBERS.
No leanage
14. Rice -7 Charlotte (47)…………MEGALOCKS line – Rice -8.5
Vegas Implied Score – Rice 27 Charlotte 20
We all suspected that Charlotte was gonna be a DUMPSTER FIRE this year but seeing Rice play this bad has been a bit of a shocker….Not sure how anyone can have any confidence in either of these teams….The Owls get a drop in class after playing Houston and Army…..The 49ers have their best option at QB in Trexler Ivey getting the start and note that they’ve had three tough games already this season (James Madison, at UNC, at Indiana).
No leanage
15. Rutgers -3 Washington (46.5)…………MEGALOCKS line – Rutgers -3.5
Vegas Implied Score – Rutgers 24.75 Washington 21.75
We’ve got some more SWEET BIG TEN ACTION coming to us on Friday night…..Tough travel spot for the Huskies as they make the long trip out to New Jersey to battle a rugged Rutgers squad (3-0) that loves to run the ball and play good defense….The GREEK RIFLE has been better than expected for Rutgers (6-1 TD to INT season; 269 pass vs Virginia Tech last week) and RB Kyle Monangai is one of the best RBs in the country (457, 6.3, 5 TD in 3G)…..The run D has been a bit soft (161 YPG, #16 Big Ten) and that makes us believe Washington can have success on offense with RB Jonah Coleman (373, 6.7, 4 TD) and note that QB Will Rogers has a sparkling 8-0 TD to INT mark in 4G (76%)…..Their defense has been fine as well…..Our ratings prefer the home team but we were hoping for a cheaper price …We’ll monitor the situation and see if some MOB STEAM comes in on the Huskies before game day.
Holding pattern – Tracking line movement as per above.
UPDATE – no leanage
16. Clemson -22 Stanford (57.5)…………MEGALOCKS line – Clemson -21
Vegas Implied Score – Clemson 39.75 Stanford 17.75
Clemson has bounced back nicely after getting rolled by Georgia (L 34-3) and scored 125 points (!) in a pair of wins over Appalachian St and NC State….The offense has been balanced behind the passing of QB Cade Klubnik and the rushing of RB Phil “I’m a Bad” Mafah……The defense has been a bit soft vs the run and they’ve only booked four sacks in 3G…..Stanford has been a grinding two-man show with QB Ashton Daniels (also #1 rusher) and star WR Elic Ayomanor but do they have enough pop to hang within the number?……Long travel trip for the Cardinal….Stanford was 1-4 ATS LY when dogs of 20+…..Clemson visits Florida St next week.
No leanage
17. USC -16 Wisconsin (50.5)…………MEGALOCKS line – USC -14.5
Vegas Implied Score – USC 33.25 Wisconsin 17.25
Not a game we’re gonna get involved as whilst we prefer USC it’s hard to back them after a 60-minute physical slugfest (and a loss) vs Michigan and now they’ve come back to Los Angeles ** to face a scrappy Wisconsin team off a bye….The Badgers lost starting QB Tyler Van Dyke for the season due to injury and we have no confidence in that offense to score many points…..The defense is respectable tho….Tough call.
** The only thing that would make Los Angeles worse is if they had a giant Disney property about 30 miles out of town that steals your money and allows creeps to take secret photos of your kids to share with other creeps.
No leanage
18. Troy -7 ULM (46)…………MEGALOCKS line – Troy -10
Vegas Implied Score – Troy 26.5 ULM 19.5
The mighty ULM Warhawks already have two (!) wins in the bag including a SHOCK the WORLD beatdown of UAB….They got destroyed last week by Texas but that was expected…..ULM has a nice trio of RBs and the defense is solid and is led by studs like DE Billy PULLEN ** but they need better play from QB General BOOTY ** (1-1 TD to INT)…..Troy is off to a rough 1-3 start but note that QB Goose Crowder ^^ has been really good when healthy (5-0 TD to INT; played entire game last week), RB Damien Taylor (265, 6.6, 2 TD) is legit, and WR Devonte Ross is one of the most explosive players around (26, 500 yards!)…..This line looks off (low) so we’re gonna sniff around and see if the Goose is ready to go.
** Billy Pullen and General Booty. Sometimes the jokes just write themselves.
^^ Where are the guys named Bill Smith?
Holding pattern – Checking with our DEEP SUN BELT INSIDERS on the status of Troy QB as noted above.
UPDATE – no leanage
19. Ohio -12 Akron (46)…………MEGALOCKS line – Ohio -11
Vegas Implied Score – Ohio 29 Akron 17
Ohio has won 15 of the last 16 meetings between these two teams and they’ve been much better than we anticipated so far in 2024 ….They’ve only scored 22/27/21/6 in 4G and that includes meetings with South Alabama and something called Morgan St….That makes it a bit of a challenge to cover a double-digit number….Akron has played three brutal road games (Ohio St, Rutgers, South Carolina) so it’s hard to know what to make of their stats in terms of how they’ll fare vs a decent MAC team….Also note that this is the Zips’ 4th road test in five weeks to open the season.
No leanage
20. UCF -15 Colorado (63)…………MEGALOCKS line – UCF -12
Vegas Implied Score – UCF 39 Colorado 24
UCF is moving like a TREMENDOUS MACHINE on the ground (376 YPG, #1 FBS) thanks in large part to the work of RB RJ Harvey (448, 7.6, 8 TD) and WR Kobe Hudson continues to dazzle us with his SKILLZ and toughness (310, 23.8, 2 TD)…..Colorado has improved on defense but they’re obviously gonna have trouble slowing down UCF’s ground attack….The Buffs have a lethal THROW GAME with QB Shedeur Sanders at the controls (11-2 TD to INT, 68%, 8.3 YPA) and whilst Colorado has allowed 16 (!) sacks (last FBS) note that UCF is ranked #132 in the nation with just ONE sack recorded in 3G…..That makes us believe that Colorado will be able to move the ball thru the air at times and score some points…..UCF is coming off a bye week and Colorado is coming off a miracle win over Baylor so the spot favors the Knights BIGLY….The line is starting to get out of control tho and we’ll see if it creeps towards +17……Very unlikely but you never know as it hit +16 at one point…..We’ll also be keeping tabs on the weather which might be dicey in Orlando on Saturday.
Holding pattern – More digging is required as per above.
UPDATE – no leanage
21. Marshall -4 Western Michigan (55)…………MEGALOCKS line – Marshall -5.5
Vegas Implied Score – Marshall 29.5 Western Michigan 25.5
We’re below market on the Thundering Herd but we still don’t really know if that stance is accurate given that their last two games were unwinnable (at Virginia Tech, at Ohio St)…..Their QB play is sketchy but they should be able to run the ball on the Broncos and note that #1 RB AJ Turner is averaging an impossible 12.1 YPC (254, TD)…..The Broncos led in the 2nd half vs Wisconsin in a gutsy performance and then got POLEAXED by Ohio St (L 56-CACK)….They destroyed something referred to as Bethune-Cookman before the bye week and they’ve got MACtion on deck….Marshall also has a bigger game up next (App St)….Prefer the dog who’s got a nice collection of RBs (even with J Buckley out) but the line isn’t tempting enough.
No leanage
22. East Carolina -4 UTSA (56)…………MEGALOCKS line – East Carolina -2.5
Vegas Implied Score – East Carolina 30 UTSA 26
UTSA has not looked good to say the least but they got blown out by a WHITE HOT Texas St team and one of the best teams in the nation in Texas and both of those games were on the road….QB Owen McCown is above-average and the stop unit should be fine vs an ARRRRRRRRRRRRR Pirates team that only managed to put up 321 yards vs App St and 331 yards vs Liberty….And MEGALOCKS members are all too familiar with the ARRRRRRRRRRRRRR YOU SCURVY DOG LET ME FIRE ME CANNON Pirates who have turned the ball over 14 times (worst FBS, tied with Auburn) and note that QB Jake Garcia has already thrown 9 INT which leads the ENTIRE GALAXY…..UTSA has CHAMPIONSHIP PEDIGREE and are 15-9 SU on the road under HC Jeff Traylor.
Lean – UTSA +4
Posted 6:00pm Sept 24
+4 is posted almost everywhere
23. Kansas -2 TCU (59)…………MEGALOCKS line – Kansas -1
Vegas Implied Score – Kansas 30.5 TCU 28.5
HAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAA……….<falls off chair>………haaaaaaaaaa…….There’s no way we can invest in this game as both teams have underachieved BIGLY….Kansas QB Jalon Daniels has regressed and TCU can’t run the ball or avoid letting teams score by any means possible…….Line looks about right.
No leanage
24. Liberty -3.5 Appalachian St (61.5)…………MEGALOCKS line – Liberty -1
Vegas Implied Score – Liberty 32.5 Appalachian St 29
We would’ve hammered this game (App St) at this number in August but we have to live in REALITY…..And that reality is telling us that Appalachian St’s defense is PURE FILTH….And we’re not even crazy about their rushing attack……Liberty is on our FADE LIST but we can’t deny that they find ways to win and they’re much less likely to crap the bed with turnovers….The Mountaineers were a longshot player to book a CFP spot before the season but that dream is dead and we’re not 100% confident they have the mindset to win this non-conference game…..All they have left on the accomplishment list is to win the Sun Belt and that mission starts this week……”Value” is with Appalachian St but the only way we’d play them is on the ML……Stay tuned for the Friday ML selections! Spoiler alert………Just kidding…….Not really.
No leanage
25. Indiana -7 Maryland (55)…………MEGALOCKS line – Indiana -7
Vegas Implied Score – Indiana 31 Maryland 24
Indiana has CRUSHED and KILLED ** all season long to the delight of MEGALOCKS SEASON WIN TOTAL CLUB members but the fact remains that Maryland is the toughest opponent they’ve faced to date…..And Maryland has a legit QB in Billy Edwards Jr (75%, 8-2 TD to INT) and an underrated defense….Prefer to play Indiana but we don’t see any value in the number.
** Easy, Karen. That’s just an expression.
No leanage
26. Duke -2.5 North Carolina (55.5)…………MEGALOCKS line – Pick ’em
Vegas Implied Score – Duke 29 North Carolina 26.5
Don’t look now but Duke is sitting at 4-0 behind the play of starting QB Maalik Murphy, a stout defense, and a HC named Manny Diaz who spent some time with YOUR Miami Hurricanes…..UNC just gave up 70 points to James Madison (!!) but don’t forget that they scored FIDDY points in that affair and they’ve won five straight vs Duke…..Feels like a coin toss, yo.
No leanage
27. James Madison -20.5 Ball St (57.5)…………MEGALOCKS line – James Madison -21
Vegas Implied Score – James Madison 39 Ball St 18.5
The Dukes are coming off a yuuuuge win over North Carolina (W 70-50) in which they scored 53 (!) points in the first half…..They still allowed 50 points so it’s not all a BED OF ROSES….Ball St can SCORE the FOOTBALL but this is gonna be a tough environment in which to perform…..Line looks reasonable.
No leanage
28. Fresno St -1 UNLV (48.5)…………MEGALOCKS line – Pick ’em
Vegas Implied Score – Fresno St 24.75 UNLV 23.75
Well, well, well….It was supposed to be one of the most underrated games of the weekend with two Mountain West contenders going head to head….Now it’s taken a strange turn as UNLV’s starting QB just quit on the team….It’s a story that will develop over the coming days and weeks, but as far as the game goes, The line has dropped from UNLV -4 to around a Pick’em/Fresno St -1….We can’t bet this game now with an unknown QB situation…..Veteran Cameron Friel doesn’t inspire much confidence and Hajj- Malik Williams hasn’t thrown a pass this season.
No leanage
29. Ole Miss -17.5 Kentucky (53)…………MEGALOCKS line – Ole Miss -14.5
Vegas Implied Score – Ole Miss 35.25 Kentucky 17.75
The Rebels are moving like a TREMENDOUS MACHINE on offense (671 YPG, #1 FBS) and appear to be unstoppable….Of course you have to wonder a bit about the competition they’ve faced (#162 schedule in FBS/FCS per Sagarin)…..Kentucky (#53) has played South Carolina (blown out) and mighty Georgia (lost by a point)…….Kentucky’s defense is legit and our preference is to take the points but the Wildcats have a REALLY bad offense……3 TD passes as a team, 4.3 YPC rushing….And Ole Miss has a sneaky good stop unit…..Can they get to their implied team total or slightly higher and give themselves a shot to cover the spread?…..Tough call….Ole Miss won by three points in 2022 and by a single point during the 2020 PLANDEMIC season.
No leanage
30. Nebraska -10 Purdue (47)…………MEGALOCKS line – Nebraska -10
Vegas Implied Score – Nebraska 28.5 Purdue 18.5
CORN lost to Illinois at home in their last game and that unfortunate event was chronicled in detail in our AWARD-WINNING week in review blog post……Their highly-touted specimen QB Dylan Raiola has looked really good and they do enough on the ground to cause problems for a Purdue stop unit that’s allowing an impossible 269 YPG on the ground (#132 FBS)…..Purdue is clearly the worst team in the Big Ten as we approach press time but at least they’ve shown the ability to run the football (263 yards last game vs Oregon St) and Hudson Card is a decent QB…..That defense tho….Might take another look if the line drops below -10.
Holding pattern – Waiting on line move for potential play.
UPDATE – no leanage
31. Bowling Green -9.5 Old Dominion (51)…………MEGALOCKS line – Bowling Green -9.5
Vegas Implied Score – Bowling Green 30.25 Old Dominion 20.25
The line appears to be DEAD ON BALLS ACCURATE ** and whilst we believe that Bowling Green might be the best team in the MAC it’s also true that Old Dominion is a team that’ll scratch and claw…..and then scratch and claw some more…..They’re also a well-seasoned bunch after playing South Carolina, East Carolina, and Virginia Tech….HC Ricky Rahne is 11-7 ATS as a road dog…Both teams have conference play up next.
** an industry term
No leanage
32. Texas Tech -2.5 Cincinnati (58.5)…………MEGALOCKS line – Texas Tech -3
Vegas Implied Score – Texas Tech 30.5 Cincinnati 28
Cincinnati has been SNEAKY GOOD this year and we were hoping that nobody would notice but the line is very fair…..They could easily be 4-0 if not for the inexplicable collapse vs Pitt……QB Brendan Sorsby has been excellent (8-0 TD to INT) and the defense has been solid……..Texas Tech beat Arizona St last week but were outgained and they definitely have a worse stop unit…..Prefer the road team but not at this price point.
No leanage
33. NC State -6.5 Northern Illinois (46.5)…………MEGALOCKS line – NC State -7.5
Vegas Implied Score – NC State 26.5 Northern Illinois 20
NC State has been WHO WE THOUGHT THEY WERE which is an average (at best) ACC team…..The required switch to QB CJ Bailey may be a blessing in disguise but the defense is still sketchy…..The good news is that the Wolfpack still have the talent edge and whilst Northern Illinois beat Notre Dame they also just lost to Buffalo.
No leanage
34. Kansas St -5 Oklahoma St (55)…………MEGALOCKS line – Kansas St -4
Vegas Implied Score – Kansas St 30 Oklahoma St 25
We’ve been below market on these teams since the early days of summer and it appears as though we may have NAILED IT…..Kansas St got blown to bits by BYU last week and whilst that was a misleading boxscore don’t forget that they were fortunate to beat Tulane…..The Cowboys have no run game despite having Ollie Gordon at RB and apparently an OL full of amazing upperclassmen but the results have not been there…..Both head coaches are elite when it comes to covering the spread….Kansas St is a lot better at home but the line value isn’t there…..This is not a good Kansas St team and the Pokes often get better as the season goes along…..We’ll have to sit on the sidelines but Oklahoma St goes on the BACK BURNER for potential inclusion in the ML underdog picks.
No leanage
35. Wake Forest -3.5 Louisiana (60.5)…………MEGALOCKS line – Wake Forest -5
Vegas Implied Score – Wake Forest 32 Louisiana 28.5
The “value” appears to be with Wake Forest but their defense is complete trash and they’ve got ACC play on deck (at NC State)….On the flipside it’s also one of the few remaining “winnable” games so we can probably expect a max effort……Louisiana could’ve easily beaten a strong Tulane team last week (won yardage battle 413-355) but if you were watching the game and backed the Cajuns you will never forget the Tulane pick 6 in the final two minutes of the first half followed by a KR TD to start the 2nd half.
No leanage
36. Ohio St -23.5 Michigan St (48.5)…………MEGALOCKS line – Ohio St -21
Vegas Implied Score – Ohio St 36 Michigan St 12.5
The Buckeyes have looked very impressive taking down three relative weaklings by a combined tally of 157-20 (!) in just three games….The defense is elite and the offense has weapons O’ PLENTY…..We’ve been Michigan St TRUTHERS since the early days of summer but it’s gonna be hard to PENETRATE this Ohio St defense with a banged-up WR corps that includes emerging star Nick Marsh…..We like the potential of QB Aidan Chiles but he still makes a lot of mistakes…..”Value” appears to be with the underdog but we’re not sure Michigan St has enough punch to cover the spread.
No leanage
37. Penn St -18 Illinois (47.5)…………MEGALOCKS line – Penn St -16
Vegas Implied Score – Penn St 32.75 Illinois 14.75
Yes, guy….We’ve got a battle of undefeated Big Ten teams doing battle on Friday night….Illinois has the best win on either resume after taking care of CORN on the road last week…They won the yardage battle handily, allowed just 50 net rushing yards (5 sacks) and dominated in the trenches in the 4Q and OT…..They’ve covered 7L9 at Penn St…..We like the Nittany Lions a lot but it’ll take a heck of an effort to win by essentially 20+ the way that Illinois plays defense…..Also note that Illini QB Luke Altmyer has been excellent (10-0 TD to INT, 8.2 YPA) and their offense is one of the slowest moving outfits in the nation….That’ll help limit Penn St’s possessions.
Lean – Illinois +18
Posted 7:40am Sept 26
+18 is listed basically everywhere
38. Georgia St -3 Georgia Southern (58)…………MEGALOCKS line – Georgia St -2.5
Vegas Implied Score – Georgia St 30.5 Georgia Southern 27.5
Georgia St has been better than we anticipated as the abundance of new faces have really made a difference so far….QB Christian Veilleux has played very well and been safe with the football (6-1 TD to INT, 113 attempts) and they’ve got a solid #1 option at RB (Freddie Brock) and WR (Ted Hurst)…Georgia Southern’s QB JC French has also been impressive and the Eagles defensive stats look grim after having to face Boise St and Ole Miss…..Rivalry game, home team has covered 4L5.
No leanage
39. Baylor -3.5 BYU (45.5)…………MEGALOCKS line – Baylor -3
Vegas Implied Score – Baylor 24.5 BYU 21
The Bears just fell to COACH PRIME and the Buffaloes in the most heinous way imaginable and now they’ve gotta rally the troops and take on a very physical BYU team who just so happens to be undefeated (4-0)….Two of those wins were legit (at SMU, Kansas St) although it took a lot strange things to happen the win over the Wildcats last week (241 yards, won the game 38-9)….We like the Baylor QB switch to Sawyer Robertson and note that the Bears only other loss came at Utah…..BYU hasn’t allowed more than 15 points in any game this year.
No leanage
40. Texas St -8.5 Sam Houston (56.5)…………MEGALOCKS line – Texas St -7
Vegas Implied Score – Texas St 32.5 Sam Houston 24
Texas St appears to be the most talented team in the FUN BELT and the last time we saw them in action they gave Arizona St all they could handle in a 31-28 loss…..Now they’re off a bye week heading to play Sam Houston who’s one of the most pleasant surprises of the 2024 season…..Still it’s hard to get a gauge on how good they are as their three wins came vs turds and when they stepped up in class they got drilled by UCF (L 45-14)…..Line might be a wee bit too high but we’re not sure the Bearkats will be able to keep up….Both squads have conference play on deck.
No leanage
41. Michigan -9 Minnesota (36)…………MEGALOCKS line – Michigan -11
Vegas Implied Score – Michigan 22.5 Minnesota 13.5
We’ll roll with the Wolverines in this one as the rushing attack was devastating vs USC last time out (290 yards) just one week after steamrolling for 301 rushing yards vs Arkansas St……Minnesota just got gashed for 284 yards vs Iowa and the Hawkeyes don’t even have a mobile QB like Alex Orji….Michigan is on a 12-4 ATS run vs the Gophers.
Lean – Michigan -9
Posted 11:40am Sept 26
-9 is the market consensus
42. Boise St -7 Washington St (63)…………MEGALOCKS line – Boise St -8
Vegas Implied Score – Boise St 35 Washington St 28
Don’t look now but we have a PAIR (!) of potential CFP teams going head-to-head……Washington St is undefeated (4-0) and playing well behind emerging star dual-threat QB John Mateer who’s thrown 11 TD passes whilst rushing for 425 yards and 5 scores….Boise St is 2-1 and recall that they took Oregon to the wall in early September (L 37-34)…..The underdog has a shot in this one but we’d want to few more points.
No leanage
43. Louisiana Tech -2.5 FIU (50.5)…………MEGALOCKS line – Pick ’em
Vegas Implied Score – Louisiana Tech 26.5 FIU 24
Tough loss for the Panthers last week as they fumbled at the 1-yard line going in for the winning TD in the dying seconds of the game vs something called Monmouth…..They’re sitting at 1-3 and could really use this game given that they head on the road to face Liberty next week……Louisiana Tech’s defense is playing much better than we thought but the offense is an ABOMINATION as they’re trying to sling it around without any good QBs…..and they just lost QB Blake Baker to a collarbone injury…..Prefer the home team but they’re not very trustworthy….Potential ML underdog to include in the picks on Friday.
No leanage
44. SMU -6 Florida St (48)…………MEGALOCKS line – SMU -5
Vegas Implied Score – SMU 27 Florida St 21
Florida St got their first win last week over Cal but they still haven’t put up more than 300Y of offense in any game yet….The good news is that they booked 7 sacks vs the Golden Bears and they’ve allowed 107/65 yards rushing L2G….The DL appears to be coming around…….This is SMU’s first ever (!) ACC game and they’re the more talented team….We were hoping for a number closer to -4 and here we are…..Note that the Mustangs have been outgained in each of their L2G and whilst they scored 66 vs TCU last week they only had 375 yards of offense (3 non-offensive TDs).
No leanage
45. Tulane -5 South Florida (64)…………MEGALOCKS line – Tulane -5.5
Vegas Implied Score – Tulane 34.5 South Florida 29.5
This is a yuuuge conference opener for both teams as a loss will put them behind the EIGHT BALL….Tulane has played a top-20 schedule and have looked good doing it…..South Florida has played a pair of TOMATO CANS and a pair of elite teams (Miami, ROLL TIDE) so it’s hard to gauge how good they are this season…..Also not thrilled that the Bulls are coming off an emotional game with YOUR Miami Hurricanes in which they got destroyed (L 50-15)…..Funny how the CROWD WAS ROCKING but it didn’t matter…Prefer the dog a wee bit but would need +7.
No leanage
46. North Texas -6.5 Tulsa (68.5)…………MEGALOCKS line – North Texas -8
Vegas Implied Score – North Texas 37.5 Tulsa 31
We’ll roll with the Mean Green in this one as the line looks a bit short and their offense can go ALL NIGHT LIKE LUMBERJACK thanks to QB Chandler Morris, a deep set of RBs (despite injuries) and a diverse and speedy WR corps……The defense is improved but still pretty gross and it’s nice to know that Tulsa has only scored 24/10/23 vs their three FBS opponents.
Lean – North Texas -6.5
Posted 5:00pm Sept 26
-6.5 is posted virtually everywhere
47. Notre Dame -7 Louisville (46)…………MEGALOCKS line – Notre Dame -8.5
Vegas Implied Score – Notre Dame 26.5 Louisville 19.5
We prefer the Irish in this game but lost the consensus -6 on Tuesday….went to -6.5……thought about taking the bait….and then the MOB STEAM took it to -7 today…..Will wait and see if the better number pops up again…..Yes, we know that Notre Dame lost to Northern Illinois but the Cardinals will get their full attention this week as they beat ND last year in LUA-VUH by a score of 33-20…..We’re lower than market when it comes to the Cardinals but we have to respect their defense and it’s not like Notre Dame is electric on offense….We think they can grind out a cover but need a better number.
Holding pattern – Waiting for -6/-6.5 to pop up again. Unlikely, but you never know.
UPDATE – no leanage
48. Boston College -13 Western Kentucky (54.5)…………MEGALOCKS line – Boston College -14.5
Vegas Implied Score – Boston College 33.75 Western Kentucky 20.75
The Eagles are a very buttoned-up operation under the tutelage of new HC Bill O’Brien but they were a bit fortunate to escape with a win over Sparty last week in a bad weather game (+3 t/o margin)….The rushing attack has been slowed down the past two weeks but even tho the Toppers have been good vs the run the L2W this is still an ACC team vs a CUSA squad…..Tough scheduling spot for BC as their list of ACC assignments continues next week (at Virginia)…..WKU can throw it a bit but they struggled last week vs Toledo.
No leanage
49. Auburn -1 Oklahoma (45)…………MEGALOCKS line – Auburn -1
Vegas Implied Score – Auburn 23 Oklahoma 22
We were eyeballing some kind of Auburn play and/or an inclusion of the Tigers in our ML Underdog selections but it appears that the crafty MOBSTERS have beat us to the punch and now Auburn is a small favorite…..Oklahoma is starting the electric true freshman Michael Hawkins at QB and he can RUN LIKE THE WIND but the passing skillzz look dicey and the WR group is very banged up….The good news for Oklahoma is that their defense is a potential top-10 outfit and you only need to look at how they held down Tennessee for the most part last week for Exhibit A…..CIRCLE the WAGONS game for Auburn here but we prefer them as a dog and it’s hard to trust that disgusting QB play.
No leanage
50. Texas A&M -6 Arkansas (51)…………MEGALOCKS line – Texas A&M -4
Vegas Implied Score – Texas A&M 28.5 Arkansas 22.5
Don’t look now but WOO PIG is sitting at 3-1 and they could easily be 4-0 if not for their collapse at Oklahoma St….They were outgained by Auburn last week but took advantage of five (!) turnovers (+3 t/o margin)……WOO PIG QB Taylen Green has been fun to watch and a nightmare for opposing defenses on the ground….Less so thru the air (4-4 TD to INT)…..WOO PIG also has one of the most unheralded RBs in the country in Ja’Quinden Jackson (472, 8 TD) and the defense has been a pleasant surprise….Texas A&M hasn’t looked very good compared to expectations but they’re 3-1 after slithering past Bowling Green last week….Starting QB Conner Weigman appears to be ready to go this week but we’re not convinced he’s a better option than Marcel Reed…..Need to mull this one over a bit more.
Holding pattern – A bit more digging underway.
UPDATE – no leanage
51. Navy -3.5 UAB (57.5)…………MEGALOCKS line – Navy -5.5
Vegas Implied Score – Navy 30.5 UAB 27
Navy has been WHO WE THOUGHT THEY WERE and they sit at 3-0 after steamrolling Memphis for an impossible 566 yards (361 rush, 205 pass) en route to a 56-44 victory…..UAB is coming off a bye week which will certainly help but this ain’t YO MOMMA’s Navy offense as they’re slinging it around thru the air from time to time with the new offense and QB Blake Horvath is averaging 12.5 yards per attempt whilst leading the team in rushing (366, 10.8 YPC!, 7 TD)….UAB lost to Navy LY 31-6 and got blown out by ULM in week two.
Holding pattern – Waiting for a miracle line move to -3. Will probably still take it at -4. Stay tuned!
UPDATE
Lean – Navy -3.5
Posted 4:12pm Sept 27
-3.5 is listed virtually everywhere
‘Official play’ means that this is one of our favorite plays of the week (perceived value, match-up, coaching, trends, etc.). We’re currently investing 25% more on these plays vs our ‘leans’. We’ll normally have two or three of these choices per week.
‘Lean’ means that we’re placing a standard size wager on the game. We’ll normally have about ten of these plays per week. Many members prefer to pick and choose amongst these games when finalizing their weekly investment cards so we’ll continue to refer to them as ‘leans’.
‘No leanage’ means that we won’t have any action on the game.
Team totals – We’ll list the implied number based on the point spread and total when our analysis is posted. If a team total ends up being an ‘official play’ we’ll post a widely available number at the time of pick release.