Week 6 QUICK TAKES – College Football Predictions
Here are some QUICK TAKES on the games that did not make the cut for a longer write-up this week.
Let’s go!
FRIDAY UPDATE
Done for the week. GL, PLAY SAFE, and enjoy the games!
Handy index: Quick Takes
‘Official’ picks in blue. ‘Leans’ in green. Waiting on a number or information to make a potential play in orange.
- Texas St at Troy (Thursday)
- Houston at TCU (Friday)
- Purdue at Wisconsin
- Alabama at Vanderbilt
- Michigan St at Oregon (Friday)
- Jacksonville St at Kennesaw St (Friday)
- Utah St at Boise St
- Baylor at Iowa St
- Boston College at Virginia
- Wake Forest at NC State
- Indiana at Northwestern
- Auburn at Georgia
- Sam Houston at UTEP (Thursday)
- Syracuse at UNLV (Friday)
- UCLA at Penn St
- Pittsburgh at North Carolina
- Massachusetts at Northern Illinois
- Clemson at Florida St
- Temple at Connecticut
- Rutgers at Nebraska
- SMU at LUA-VUH
- Appalachian St at Marshall
- Bowling Green at Akron
- East Carolina at Charlotte
- Hawaii at San Diego St
- UCF at Florida
- Navy at Air Force
- Old Dominion at Coastal Carolina
- Miami at California
- Virginia Tech at Stanford
- San Jose St at Nevada
- West Virginia at Oklahoma St
- Tulane at UAB
- Western Michigan at Ball St
- Iowa at Ohio St
- Tennessee at Arkansas
- Colorado St at Oregon St
- Kansas at Arizona St
- Texas Tech at Arizona
- Louisiana at Southern Miss
- South Alabama at Arkansas St
- Duke at Georgia Tech
- James Madison at ULM
- USC at Minnesota
- Miami Ohio at Toledo
- Army at Tulsa
- Ole Miss at South Carolina
QUICK TAKES
1. Texas St -14 Troy (58)…………MEGALOCKS line – Texas St -11.5
Vegas Implied Score – Texas St 36 Troy 22
Lots of digging on this BAD BOY thanks to our SUN BELT INSIDERS and hopefully it pays off….Texas St is coming off a brutal loss to Sam Houston in which they blew a 22-CACK lead (L 40-39)….The run D just allowed 298 (!) yards on the ground to Sam Houston and Troy has rushed for 200+ in consecutive games….We stayed off last week’s Troy game due to the mystery status of starting QB Goose Crowder and the line is telling us he’s probably out….Upon further review, we don’t hate backup Tucker Kilcrease as he should get more reps in practice and he’s rushed for 44/55 yards L2G…..You know we like ourselves some mobility at QB and Crowder appears more injury-prone than Cam Rising **……..Also note that Texas St’s star RB Ismail Mahdi has been very average (4.5 YPC, 6.0 LY) and his only 100Y game came vs FCS turd Lamar….a game in which the Bobcats only won by 7 points….Texas St still has an elite Sun Belt QB and a deep set of WR weapons but even those guys only have two (!) 100-yard games amongst them thru 4G…..The aforementioned INSIDERS were hiding under the salad bar in the cafeteria at Texas St University last night and heard whispers that star DE Ben Bell is done for the season to preserve his redshirt…..Seems like that’s what might be of interest to the market today in addition to the QB uncertainty…..We’re not big fans of the Trojans but +14 seems too high.
** Fact check: False. Nobody is more injury-prone.
Lean – Troy +14
Posted 11:45am Sept 30
+14 is listed virtually everywhere
NOTE – MOBSTERS were playing around with this game just as we were about to post. Line pushed to -14.5, -15.5 at one shop, now drilled back down to -14. Looks like they got the +14.5 they wanted. We didn’t have time to call the +14.5 but we’ll settle for +14.
2. TCU -16.5 Houston (49.5)…………MEGALOCKS line – TCU -15
Vegas Implied Score – TCU 33 Houston 16.5
Not a game of interest….Houston has been shutout in back-to-back weeks but they only lost at Oklahoma by four points earlier in the season and their defense played well yet again at Iowa St last game (down 3-0 at half)….TCU is a high-variance team with a bad defense and weak rushing attack.
No leanage
3. Wisconsin -13 Purdue (46.5)…………MEGALOCKS line – Wisconsin -13.5
Vegas Implied Score – Wisconsin 29.75 Purdue 16.75
We still have no idea how bad Purdue is this season….Don’t get us wrong, they’re BAD, but how bad?…..They’re averaging 5.1 YPC as a team and went into the 4Q vs Nebraska last game down 7-3….Wisconsin treated their backers at the windows to some serious torture vs USC last game as documented in our AWARD-WINNING Week in Review blog post and we just don’t think they’re very good……Line looks about right but TREND GUY will note that the Badgers have won 17 (!) consecutive games vs Purdue (14-3 ATS)…..Fav or pass and we’ll take a seat.
No leanage
4. Alabama -23.5 Vanderbilt (55.5)…………MEGALOCKS line – Alabama -25
Vegas Implied Score – Alabama 39.5 Vanderbilt 16
ROLL TIDE, buh buh.
Alabama was WHO WE THOUGHT THEY WERE last week as they jumped out to a 28-CACK lead over Georgia……They got sleepy on both sides of the football in the 2nd half but found a way to get the win thanks to the spectacular play of QB Jalen Milroe and star WR Ryan Williams (462, 28.9, 5 TD)…..Vanderbilt upset Virginia Tech and almost did the same to Missouri (!) but they dropped that one in 2OT…..Our ratings say ROLL TIDE and we think it’ll be tough for Vanderbilt QB Diego Pavia to work his magic and keep the chains moving but it’s the worst spot imaginable for the Tide after that yuuuge victory over Georgia and the Commodores are off a bye week…..The intrepid Phil Steele reminds us that Alabama has won the L3 meetings by a combined score of 148-3 but this ain’t YO MOMMA’s Vanderbilt team.
No leanage
5. Oregon -24 Michigan St (52.5)…………MEGALOCKS line – Oregon -22
Vegas Implied Score – Oregon 38.25 Michigan St 14.25
The spread might be a bit rich but it’s possible that QUACK QUACK has finally awoken from their slumber after beating their last two opponents (Oregon St and UCLA on the road) by a combined score of 82-27…..You know that SEASON WIN TOTAL CLUB is high on the Spartans but we assumed that they’d get killed by Ohio St (they did) as well as Oregon….They’ll head into their bye week at 3-3 with SIX (!) winnable games on the docket in the 2nd half….Michigan St QB Aiden Chiles has a ton of potential but he’s learning on the job (5-9 TD to INT)….Fun fact – Spartans HC Jonathan Smith knows a thing or two about playing Oregon given his time with Oregon St…..Will that make any difference in this game?…..We’ll find out.
No leanage
6. Jacksonville St -14.5 Kennesaw St (48.5)…………MEGALOCKS line – Jacksonville St -14
Vegas Implied Score – Jacksonville St 31.5 Kennesaw St 17
We’ve got this one on our radar as Jacksonville St played much better before their bye week (Sept 28) especially at QB and in terms of defending the run….Kennesaw St appears to be spinning its wheels and they just lost to UT Martin who’s a midrange FCS team….The Owls have good defense but a horrific offense…..These two teams know each other from the FCS days…..Waiting on the -14….Maybe we’ll get lucky and some math guy wearing a Harry Potter t-shirt will advise the mob to get on Kennesaw St.
Holding pattern – Waiting on a -14 that probably never show up but there’s always hope.
UPDATE – line up to -16.5 which is understandable. Pass.
7. Boise St -26.5 Utah St (66.5)…………MEGALOCKS line – Boise St -27
Vegas Implied Score – Boise St 46.5 Utah St 20
Boise St can name the score in this one but they’ve got bigger fish to fry down the road…..Utah St had a decent performance vs Utah and they’re off a bye but the program is a bit of a mess…..Fav or pass and we’ll keep the cash in the wallet.
No leanage
8. Iowa St -13.5 Baylor (46)…………MEGALOCKS line – Iowa St -11.5
Vegas Implied Score – Iowa St 29.75 Baylor 16.25
You know we love ourselves some SWEET IOWA ST ACTION but the price to back them this week looks a bit steep after they shutout Houston 20-CACK (3-0 at half) and Baylor has cost their backers about $1.7 trillion over the past two weeks **……Iowa St will be happy to survive and advance.
** Fact check: Seems about right.
No leanage
9. Virginia -2.5 Boston College (50)…………MEGALOCKS line – Virginia -1
Vegas Implied Score – Boston College 26.25 Virginia 23.75
Easy game to throw in the trash from a wagering standpoint as we’ve got the QB issue to deal with at Boston College……as if the Utah QB Cam Rising BS wasn’t enough….Will Castellanos play for BC? We also have Virginia games on our temporary ban list.
No leanage
10. NC State -5 Wake Forest (55)…………MEGALOCKS line – NC State -3.5
Vegas Implied Score – NC State 30 Wake Forest 25
Hey, look!….Another team on our temporary banned list (Wake Forest games)…..In fact, both of these teams are unworthy of support at the betting windows…..NC State was life and death to beat Northern Illinois last week and whilst we prefer Wake Forest in this tilt note that the home team (NC State) is 14-3 ATS L17 in the series.
No leanage
11. Indiana -13.5 Northwestern (42.5)…………MEGALOCKS line – Indiana -11
Vegas Implied Score – Indiana 28 Northwestern 14.5
There’s no doubt that SEASON WIN TOTAL CLUB members are well aware of how Indiana is destroying the competition and Northwestern is more than likely just CANNON FODDER….However, there’s just no value in backing the Hoosiers at this point and if anyone can muck up a game it’s Northwestern.
No leanage
12. Georgia -24 Auburn (53)…………MEGALOCKS line – Georgia -21.5
Vegas Implied Score – Georgia 38.5 Auburn 14.5
Georgia is one of the top teams in the nation. However, they were exactly WHO WE THOUGHT THEY WERE last week and it doesn’t matter how “mad” HC Kirby Smart gets or how much “sharp” money comes in on the Bulldogs….They have some things that need to be cleaned up if they want to be a National Championship contender….Three FBS opponents….two bad quarters vs Clemson….four bad quarters vs Kentucky….two horrible quarters vs ROLL TIDE….Auburn outgained WOO PIG 431-334 and Oklahoma 482-291….We prefer Auburn in this game but their QB situation is disgusting and note that Georgia comes home with a massive chip on their shoulder.
No leanage
13. Sam Houston -10.5 UTEP (50.5)…………MEGALOCKS line – Sam Houston -12.5
Vegas Implied Score – Sam Houston 30.5 UTEP 20
Yes, guy….Sam Houston came back from deficits of 22-CACK and 39-27 to beat Texas St 40-39 last week….The rushing attack has been devastating the L3G (300/280/257) and QB Hunter Watson has had back-to-back 100-yard rushing games….The defense has been stout vs the run but they’ve been diced up on occasion by the THROW GAME…..That’s what UTEP likes to do and they’re gonna roll with QB Cade McConnell this week who looked good in relief last week and note that he was the starter for part of LY….They should do some good things thru the air….The problem is that the UTEP run D has been gashed for 224 YPG (#128 FBS) so the Bearkats should be able to do what they want on offense….UTEP is off a bye and they beat Sam Houston LY on the road 37-34……Prefer Sam Houston but will wait to see if a -10 shows up or at least a split market of -10/-10.5.
Holding pattern – Waiting for -10 to make a final decision.
UPDATE – passing on this game.
14. UNLV -6 Syracuse (59.5)…………MEGALOCKS line – UNLV -4
Vegas Implied Score – UNLV 32.75 Syracuse 26.75
Our first instinct was to look at the mighty Orange coming into town as 6-point dogs as they’ve got a great THROW GAME behind QB Kyle McCord (14-5 TD to INT) and a BEVY of WR/TE weaponry….Our worry upon further review is that the run game has been a bit lackluster (long run 27 yards, 3.5 YPC) and the 11 sacks haven’t helped the rushing totals….In fact, 9 (!) of those sacks came in the L2G…..UNLV just smoked Fresno St behind electric QB Hajj-Malik Williams (182 pass, 119 rush, 4 total TD) and that defense is REALLY good (#1 MW run D, #2 MW pass efficiency D)…..UNLV is +8 in turnover margin and have picked off 9 passes (4 TD)….Syracuse has ACC play on deck….UNLV travels to scrub Utah St…..Not gonna get in front of this Rebels train right now.
No leanage
15. Penn St -27.5 UCLA (44.5)…………MEGALOCKS line – Penn St -25
Vegas Implied Score – Penn St 36 UCLA 8.5
The Nittany Lions can name the score in this one and although it appears that banged up UCLA starting QB Ethan Garbers may give it a try (3-6 TD to INT) as we approach press time you just never really know these days……Penn St has a yuuuuge trip to USC on deck.
No leanage
16. Pittsburgh -2.5 North Carolina (64.5)…………MEGALOCKS line – Pittsburgh -2
Vegas Implied Score – Pittsburgh 33.5 North Carolina 31
Tough game to read….The Panthers’ stats have been skewed by romps over Kent St and Youngstown St and whilst they have two wins over good teams (at Cincinnati, WV) both of those triumphs required stellar comebacks….UNC is coming off a pair of draining losses including last week’s 21-20 defeat at the hands of Duke, a game in which they led 20-CACK…..Each team has an all-ACC quality RB in Desmond Reed (Pitt) and Omarion Hampton (UNC)…..Tar Heels have never lost at home to Pitt (7-0!) if you’re looking for a trend that may or may not mean something.
No leanage
17. Northern Illinois -17.5 Massachusetts (44.5)…………MEGALOCKS line – Northern Illinois -17
Vegas Implied Score – Northern Illinois 30.75 Massachusetts 13.25
Northern Illinois has been inconsistent but they’ve shown they can beat a team like Notre Dame (!) and they only lost by 7 points last week on the road at NC State….UMass is pretty bad but they took Miami Ohio to OT last week and outgained Toledo earlier in the year……..The Huskies have a monumental game with Bowling Green up next….Prefer the dog but need to do a bit more thinking on this BAD BOY.
Holding pattern – More digging required.
Update – pass.
18. Clemson -14.5 Florida St (47.5)…………MEGALOCKS line – Clemson -14
Vegas Implied Score – Clemson 31 Florida St 16.5
There are two questions people are asking asking these days. 1. Why did I take medical advice from Sesame Street characters and Hollywood pedos during the PLANDEMIC? 2. Have we reached PEAK Florida St STINKAGE? We can’t answer number one…..Number two is up for debate…We expect Florida St’s best effort this week at home to their hated rivals from Clemson but it’s certainly doubtful that they can stay competitive without some help in the turnover department…..Clemson is +6 in that regard so that’s not good…..The hidden hope for Florida St is that Clemson does NOT have anywhere close to the defense they’ve had over the last number of years…..They are 2nd WORST in the conference in total defense (402 YPG) despite playing teams such as Appalachian St, NC State, and Stanford…..Maybe new Florida St QB Brock Glenn can change the mojo? He got thrown to the wolves LY vs LUA-VUH and Georgia LY so it’s unclear what he has to offer……Line looks about right….We’d be tempted to play Clemson at -13 or better but here we are.
No leanage
19. Connecticut -16.5 Temple (50)…………MEGALOCKS line – Connecticut -17
Vegas Implied Score – Connecticut 33.25 Temple 16.75
We are the home for CONNECTICUT TRUTHERS and our SEASON WIN TOTAL CLUB cheers on every win on their quest to get to five wins…..This will almost certainly be win #4 but keep in mind that it’s not easy for a team to destroy the point spread three weeks in a row….They poleaxed FAU 48-14 as small favorites and smoked Buffalo 47-3 as six-point choices (combined +71 ATS in 2G)….The good news for UConn backers is that Temple’s only hope at QB (Evan Simon) is nursing a sore shoulder and if he’s unable to go, WHOA, NELLIE, it’s bad news for the Owls as Forrest Brock is beyond horrible…..Our number assumes that Simon will play at less than 100% but if you see line movement either way before gameday you’ll know there’s QB news of some kind floating around the INTERWEBS…..Taking a pass for now.
No leanage
20. Nebraska -7 Rutgers (41)…………MEGALOCKS line – Nebraska -5.5
Vegas Implied Score – Nebraska 24 Rutgers 17
Our numbers suggest to take a look at the Scarlet Knights catching a full TD but we know that CORN has a yuuuge edge at QB the way that Dylan Raiola is playing and Rutgers was very fortunate to escape their home date with Washington (W 21-18; outgained 521-299)….Nebraska isn’t a great rushing team but it’s tough to win on the road when you have trouble stopping the run….Rutgers is allowing 173 YPG rushing to their opponents which is the 2nd worst mark in the Big Ten (Purdue)…..CORN backers will also have to sweat out FG attempts (4/9 this year) and magical ability of the Huskers to snatch defeat from the jaws of victory.
No leanage
21. Louisville -7 SMU (57)…………MEGALOCKS line – LUA-VUH -6
Vegas Implied Score – LUA-VUH 32 SMU 25
Our PEE INTO THE WIND totals selections are a DOCUMENTED 2-0 this year (USC vs LSU under, Iowa vs Iowa St over) and we come back with another stab under this category that seemingly makes no sense on the surface…We prefer SMU a wee bit on the side but don’t like the match-up….So the UNDER is where we are headed….1. These are two of the best defenses in the ACC…2. SMU needs to get the ground game going to move the ball and LUA-VUH is stout vs the run (95 YPG, #23)….The Mustangs rushed for 226/238 L2G but TCU is 2nd last in the Big 12 in run D and Florida St is #14 in the ACC….SMU WR/TEs have ONE 70+ receiving game ALL YEAR and that was RJ Maryland back in WEEK ZERO vs Nevada…….3. SMU’s run D is also solid (89 YPG, #16) and they’ve got 9 INT (!) (#2 FBS) so it’s not like LUA-VUH will be able to carve them up without consequences…..4. SMU has allowed 24/18/42/16 vs FBS teams…..LUA-VUH has allowed 31/19/14…..We believe at least one of the stop units will hold the opposing offense down compared to expectations.
Lean – Under 57
Posted 4:23pm Oct 1
57 is the consensus. You can find 57.5 if you dig around. We’ve also seen a 56.5 and a 58.
22. Marshall -3 Appalachian St (58)…………MEGALOCKS line – Marshall -1
Vegas Implied Score – Marshall 30.5 Appalachian St 27.5
The folks in Boone, NC are in the middle of a disaster and that puts everything in perspective in terms of football vs real life….Not sure how Appalachian St can have 100% focus on this game but we’ve seen teams rise up in the midst of chaos before….and they’re the better team….Gonna take a seat.
No leanage
23. Bowling Green -15 Akron (51)…………MEGALOCKS line – Bowling Green -14.5
Vegas Implied Score – Bowling Green 33 Akron 18
Not a game we’re interested in playing this week….Bowling Green just lost to Old Dominion at home and they’ve got a yuuuge game with Northern Illinois on deck……Akron has been PURE FILTH all season but note that they’ve played a ridiculously tough schedule….Bowling Green is 11-4 ATS L15 vs the Zips.
No leanage
24. East Carolina -9 Charlotte (47)…………MEGALOCKS line – East Carolina -9.5
Vegas Implied Score – East Carolina 28 Charlotte 19
Charlotte is impossible to support at the windows but they did get a <lucky?> win over Rice last week and they’re just an annoying team to play…….East Carolina is much more talented but as readers of these pages know….they can’t stop turning the ball over….They lead the nation in turnovers (16)(!)……The 49ers may have found something at QB last week but who knows….Would anyone be surprised if EC won the yardage battle 789-36 but lost by 11 points?
No leanage
25. San Diego St -2.5 Hawaii (50.5)…………MEGALOCKS line – San Diego St -1
Vegas Implied Score – San Diego St 26.5 Hawaii 24
The Aztecs looked like winners vs FIRE UP CHIPS on the road last week but Central Michigan kicked a last second FG in order to emerge victorious by a score of 22-21….They’re still trying to get things moving on offense (#111 FBS total offense) but the defense has been decent…..It’s hard to know what to make of Hawaii as they’ve beaten two FCS teams and lost to a Power 4 team by three points (UCLA) and a JUGGERNAUT in Sam Houston…..Note that Hawaii HC Timmy Chang is 1-12 (!) SU on the road.
No leanage
26. UCF -2.5 Florida (61.5)…………MEGALOCKS line – UCF -3
Vegas Implied Score – UCF 32 Florida 29.5
We agree with the market move towards UCF as they are the better team on paper if for no other reason that they know what they’re identity is on offense (run run run at an elite level) and on defense (stop the run, get destroyed thru the air)…..That makes it a less than ideal matchup for the Knights as Florida can definitely move the ball with the THROW GAME with either Graham Mertz or DJ Lagway at the controls…UCF has one of the worst pass defenses in the BIg 12…..UCF has allowed 48/34 L2G…..Florida has a yuuuge game at Tennessee next week…..And WHAT the WHAT happened to the Knights last week vs Colorado after hainv two weeks to prepare?…..Confusing game.
No leanage
27. Navy -10 Air Force (35.5)…………MEGALOCKS line – Navy -9.5
Vegas Implied Score – Navy 22.75 Air Force 12.75
Navy has scored 41/56/38/49 L4G…..They have 11 plays of 40+ yards (#3 FBS) and 7 plays of 50+ yards (#2 FBS)….QB Blake Horvath is averaging 14.5 YPA and 9.6 YPC…..Air Force just gave up 31 to Wyoming and the top-three RBs each averaged 5+ YPC….As we’ve noted before this Navy offense is a much difference style of offense (super explosive both run and pass) and it kinda sorta maybe eliminates the AF/Navy trends…..The Falcons have won the L4G vs Navy 17-6, 13-10, 23-3, 40-7 but their defense is a lot worse and their offense is having major issues sustaining drives……Falcons are 6-2 ATS L8 vs Navy….We like the Navy side but think it’s safer to count on them to exceed their team total.
Lean – Team total over 22.75 (implied)
Posted 11:52am Oct 2
You can find 22.5 at many places were team totals are offered. We’ve also seen 23.5 so shop around.
28. Coastal Carolina -5.5 Old Dominion (53.5)…………MEGALOCKS line – Coastal Carolina -6.5
Vegas Implied Score – Coastal Carolina 29.5 Old Dominion 24
Old Dominion just keeps doing what they do……They annoyed the heck out of Bowling Green last week and actually got the straight up win….We still believe in Coastal Carolina in terms of being a bowl quality team and think the line should be a wee bit higher but they’re hard to back off recent form…..Maybe the bye week will help?…..Note that the Chanticleers have a yuuuge date with James Madison up next.
No leanage
29. Miami -10.5 California (55)…………MEGALOCKS line – Miami -11
Vegas Implied Score – Miami 32.75 California 22.25
YOUR Miami Hurricanes escaped with their lives last week vs Virginia Tech and now put their undefeated record on the line as they travel to the communist outpost of Berkeley, California where they not only have to play a very scrappy Golden Bears squad, but they’ve gotta dodge hundreds of Karens and Chads protesting silent killers like OXYGEN and AIR CONDITIONING……..Miami QB Cam Ward is 5/5 in 300Y games and the RB/WR/TE weaponry is fantastic….The stop unit underwhelmed vs Virginia Tech but here they WON’T face a mobile QB, and not only that, they’ll go up against an OL that allowed 13 sacks (!) in their last two games…..Maybe the bye week will help them clean things up?…..Cal only scored 21 vs Auburn and 9 vs Florida St and they’ll need to force turnovers to stay in this game….Thankfully they’ve forced 11 of those BAD BOYS (+8, #3 FBS) so who knows?…..Cal is 12-5 ATS as a home dog under HC Justin Wilcox…..Cal’s defense is no joke and we don’t love the travel spot but we prefer the more talented team that’ll surely be focused after last week’s effort……..Waiting for “sharp” Cal money to knock the line down to -10 again.
Holding pattern – Waiting for -10 for potential action.
FRIDAY Update – passing on this game.
30. Virginia Tech -8.5 Stanford (49.5)…………MEGALOCKS line – Virginia Tech -7.5
Vegas Implied Score – Virginia Tech 29 Stanford 20.5
It was definitely a tough break for a swell bunch of guys last week as Virginia Tech fell at the hands of YOUR Miami Hurricanes….How do they get off the mat after that loss?….Well they’re the much better team but the line looks about right and keep you eye on the status of Stanford QB Ashton Daniels who’s a bit banged up.
No leanage
31.San Jose St -6.5 Nevada (51)…………MEGALOCKS line – San Jose St -5
Vegas Implied Score – San Jose St 28.75 Nevada 22.25
We’ll go BEHIND THE CURTAINS on this game and provide insight you can only find here and on the DISCOVERY CHANNEL….We were almost sure we’d be on San Jose St but after doing a deep dive and revising our numbers we just couldn’t do it given that San Jose St’s three wins have come against Air Force, Kennesaw St, and Sacramento St…..However….the Spartans can SCORE the FOOTBALL (52/31 L2G) and note that WR Nick Nash has 50 receptions thru 4G (8 TD) and WR Justin Lockhart is a fine #2 option…and they can also run the ball with RB Floyd Chalk….QB Emmett Brown has excelled in the SPREAD and SHRED offense…Nevada has been a scrappy bunch since the opening tip vs SMU and in two of their last three games (exclude at Minnesota) they’ve put up 534/498 yards whilst rushing and passing for 200+ on each occasion….Neither defense is any good and San Jose St gave up over 600Y to Washington St (2 OT)….Total seems a bit low even after the MOB STEAM hit it at the open.
Lean – Over 51
Posted 3:45pm Oct 2
51 is listed virtually everywhere
32. Oklahoma St -3.5 West Virginia (65.5)……….MEGALOCKS line – Oklahoma St -3
Vegas Implied Score – Oklahoma St 34.5 West Virginia 31
Easy game to throw in the trash from a wagering standpoint as we don’t think highly of either of these two squads, particularly Oklahoma St who just can’t get the rushing attack rolling……Prefer the Mountaineers but they’re much better at home under HC Neal Brown and we give a yuuuge HC edge to Oklahoma St who’s pulled rabbits out of several hats thanks to the tutelage of Mike Gundy.
No leanage
33. Tulane -15 UAB (55)…………MEGALOCKS line – Tulane -13.5
Vegas Implied Score – Tulane 35 UAB 20
As bad as the Blazers have been, and they’ve been bad, they covered easily two games back at Arkansas (outgained 427-354 as 22-point dogs) and they only lost the yardage battle 452-395 last week vs Navy in a blowout loss….Starting QB Jacob Zeno is listed as ‘questionable’ but maybe they could use a change at QB?….Tulane is the best team in the AAC (sorry, Memphis) but they’ve had a brutal stretch of games (Kansas St, Oklahoma, Louisiana, USF) and with a bye week up next it might be a slight letdown spot….Tough call at this price point.
No leanage
34. Western Michigan -9 Ball St (56)…………MEGALOCKS line – Western Michigan -7.5
Vegas Implied Score – Western Michigan 32.5 Ball St 23.5
We’d love to play the Broncos in this spot as we still think they’re good enough to sneak into the MAC title game with the help of a hot start (Ball St, Akron, Buffalo, Kent St next four games) but we don’t see any value in the number and Ball St has proven that they can SCORE the FOOTBALL vs teams in the same area code.
No leanage
35. Ohio St -20 Iowa (45)…………MEGALOCKS line – Ohio St -18
Vegas Implied Score – Ohio St 32.5 Iowa 12.5
The Buckeyes have destroyed everything in their path by a combined total of 195-27 (!) and whilst it’s fair to say that their schedule has been CAKE (#131 per Sagarin ratings) it’s also true that we find it hard to see Iowa having much success on offense even tho they have our boy Kaleb Johnson at RB (685, 8.4, 9 TD)……TREND GUY will note that Ohio St is 12-6-1 ATS L19 vs Iowa….WATCH THE TAPE GUY has just chimed in…..Ohio St FLASHES on both sides of the ball and that’s a massive factor in this game.
No leanage
36. Tennessee -13.5 Arkansas (58.5)…………MEGALOCKS line – Tennessee -11
Vegas Implied Score – Tennessee 36 Arkansas 22.5
WOO PIG hasn’t been sexy but they’ve been competitive vs Oklahoma St (lost in 2OT), Auburn (won on the road), and Texas A&M (lost by 4 last week on a neutral site)…….We don’t trust the WOO PIG offensive line or QB Taylen Green vs an elite defense but taking Tennessee is a lot to swallow at the current market price.
No leanage
37. Oregon St -11.5 Colorado St (47.5)…………MEGALOCKS line – Oregon St -13
Vegas Implied Score – Oregon St 29.5 Colorado St 18
We prefer the favorite in this game but it’s just not clear how good the Beavers are this season….They’ve beaten three CUPCAKES and got destroyed by Oregon…..We’re also worried about their run defense as they just allowed 263Y rushing to Purdue (!) at 8.8 (!) YPC….And don’t look now but Colorado St can run the ball this year !….They’re averaging 174 YPG on the ground (92/89 L2Y) and have a fine 1-2 RB combo…..Maybe that’s why the line has moved towards -10 and not up to -14? We’ll find out on Saturday, yo.
No leanage
38. Arizona St -2.5 Kansas (51)…………MEGALOCKS line – Arizona St -3
Vegas Implied Score – Arizona St 26.75 Kansas 24.25
Tough game to get a read upon…….Kansas has a dynamic QB in Jalon Daniels who’s grossly underperformed this season (53%, 5-8 TD to INT) but they’ve still got fine players at RB and WR…..The defense allowed 70 pts over the L2G….We’ll probably get their best shot vs the Sun Devils and they’re well-coached but it’s hard to trust a team that’s lost four consecutive games….Arizona St is 3-1 but two of those wins haven’t aged that well (Wyoming, Mississippi St)…..They’ve got the best player on the field in RB Cam Skattebo (433 yards rush, 190 receiving)…..Arizona St is home and off a bye….Kansas is playing for the 6th straight week….May come back to this one as we prefer the home team.
FRIDAY update – No play on this game.
39. Arizona -6 Texas Tech (64)…………MEGALOCKS line – Arizona -5.5
Vegas Implied Score – Arizona 35 Texas Tech 29
The Wildcats come back home after their yuuuge road win over mighty Utah (W 23-10) but the Utes were without starting QB Cam Rising (again) in that affair….It could be that Arizona is coming around but that was their first decent win of the season and it wasn’t too long ago that they were smoked by Kansas St…….Texas Tech is 4-1 (!) and now go on the road after home conference wins over Arizona St and Cincinnati……Their defense is very suspect to say the least and the roster is fairly beat up….How long can they keep the magic going?……The Red Raiders are 0-5 ATS L5 in Big 12 road openers….Line looks about right.
No leanage
40. Louisiana -15 Southern Miss (57.5)…………MEGALOCKS line – Louisiana -14.5
Vegas Implied Score – Louisiana 36.25 Southern Miss 21.25
The Cajuns have looked really good so far and they’re loaded on offense with QB Ben Wooldridge, a pair of RBs each averaging 8 (!) YPC and an underrated WR group…..Their defense has played well (less so vs good competition – Tulane, Wake Forest) and they’ve only allowed 3 passing plays of 30+ yards all year….Southern Miss is a DUMPSTER FIRE with QB issues and they’ve allowed 93 points over the L2G…..Like Louisiana but will wait things out and see if a -14 pops up……Note – TREND GUY informs us that Southern Miss is 8-0 ATS L8 vs the Cajuns so Louisiana will have to break the skid…..Thankfully, they’re a legit conference contender whilst the Golden Eagles are a bottom-10 FBS team.
Holding pattern – Waiting for -14 as per above. Still may take it at -15.
FRIDAY update
Lean – Louisiana -16.5
Posted 4:12pm Oct 4
16.5 is consensus. It’s very close to a split market with -17 so shop around.
41. South Alabama -3.5 Arkansas St (61.5)…………….MEGALOCKS line – South Alabama -3
Vegas Implied Score – South Alabama 32.5 Arkansas St 29
Before the season we would’ve backed Arkansas St in a major way at this price point but South Alabama has exceeded our expectations whilst Arkansas St hasn’t looked very good…….Yes, they had to deal with road games at Michigan and Iowa St but they were also life and death to beat Tulsa at home……The “spot” greatly favors Arkansas St as they’re off a bye whilst the Jaguars are playing their 6th straight game and just got drilled by LSU……Line looks about right….Expect a max effort from the Red Wolves….Maybe they’ll be included in our ML underdog selections on Friday?
No leanage
42. Georgia Tech -9 Duke (53)…………MEGALOCKS line – Georgia Tech -7
Vegas Implied Score – Georgia Tech 31 Duke 22
This line came in a bit high in our estimation although maybe we were living in DREAM WORLD thinking that the Yellow Jackets might be in the range of -6…..They’re off a bye and the last time we saw them they outplayed LUA-VUH on the road and somehow lost the game by 12 points……..Duke is 5-0 but they’ve played the #116 schedule according to the Sagarin ratings and they’re coming off a yuuuuge comeback win over their hated rivals from North Carolina…..Can’t lay close to double digits.
No leanage
43. James Madison -16 ULM (48)…………MEGALOCKS line – James Madison -16.5
Vegas Implied Score – James Madison 32 ULM 16
WHOA, NELLIE….ULM has THREE wins in the bag and we’d love to see these guys get to a bowl game….They problem is that they’ve scored 13/3 points L2G and have only faced one team that isn’t PURE FILTH (Texas, L 51-3)…James Madison has an elite QB in Alonza Barnett (10-0 TD to INT L2G) and they’ve scored an impossible 133 points L2G…..The Dukes allowed 50 to UNC but just 7/6/7 in the other three tilts.
Lean – James Madison -16
Posted 4:55pm Oct 3
-16 is the consensus. You can find -15.5 if you shop around.
44. USC -8.5 Minnesota (49.5)…………MEGALOCKS line – USC -7
Vegas Implied Score – USC 29 Minnesota 20.5
If Minnesota wants to make a bowl game they’ve gotta start beating decent competition….They’re just 2-3 with wins coming against Rhode Island and Nevada….They almost had a win at Michigan last week (L 27-24) but were denied a chance to make a miraculous comeback by some less-than-surprising cheating in favor of the Wolverines…..We like what they’re doing on defense but the offense has been a disappointment particularly the ground game….The good news is that USC doesn’t have a defense in the same area code as Michigan or Iowa…..Also note that USC is in a weird travel spot having been flying all over the place and they’ve got a yuuge home game with Penn St on deck……The Trojans run hot and cold and HC Lincoln Riley is 2-7 ATS as road chalk with the Trojans…..Prefer the dog but not sure we can get to the window.
No leanage
45. Toledo -6.5 Miami Ohio (44)…………MEGALOCKS line – Toledo -5.5
Vegas Implied Score – Toledo 25.25 Miami Ohio 18.75
Tough game to call as the Redhawks have looked like garbage compared to expectations BUT to be fair they’ve played the #36 schedule according to the Sagarin ratings whilst Toledo has dealt with the #147 docket….We’re a bit concerned with the play of Miami Ohio QB Brett Gabbert (3-6 TD to INT) but maybe he and the entire offense wakes up vs a team in their weight class?….Toledo has been better than we anticipated given the personnel losses from the 2023 squad and this is a revenge spot after losing in the MAC Championship Game to the Redhawks LY…..not to mention a game with yuuuuge conference implications….Toledo HC Jason Candle is 39-9 SU at home.
No leanage
46. Army -12.5 Tulsa (51)…………MEGALOCKS line – Army -10.5
Vegas Implied Score – Army 31.75 Tulsa 19.25
As disgusting as it sounds we prefer Tulsa in this game as the line looks a wee bit high and this is the most competent offense by far that Army has had to deal with this season…..Also note that Tulsa is much better on defense vs the run (#62) vs the pass where they’ve been absolutely shredded…..Army passes 5-6 times a game…..We’ll mull it over for a few more hours and see if a +13 pops up.
Holding pattern – Let’s see if +13 shows up and go from there.
FRIDAY update
Lean – Tulsa +12.5
Posted 4:08pm Oct 4
+12.5 is listed almost everywhere
47. Ole Miss -8.5 South Carolina (53.5)…………MEGALOCKS line – Ole Miss -7
Vegas Implied Score – Ole Miss 31 South Carolina 22.5
We were very disappointed by the Ole Miss offense last week as they just couldn’t get rolling and we were puzzled by the play-calling as well as the performance of QB Jaxson Dart and the OL…..And only one player had more than three receptions….South Carolina’s defensive line isn’t as good as Kentucky’s but it’s still really good and the COCKS can get after the QB (16 sacks, #16)….It’s not gonna be easy for Ole Miss to get the ground game going and that usually means trouble for this offense….South Cackalacky doesn’t inspire much confidence on offense but they found a way to put up 398 yards vs LSU, 549 vs Akron, and they rushed for over 240Y on both of those occasions……Ole Miss’s stop unit is really good but you have to wonder about the competition they’ve faced just a wee bit…..We’ll almost certainly have a South Carolina-related play before 5pm today.
Holding pattern – A bit more digging and analysis is required.
FRIDAY update
Official play – South Carolina +9 -108
Sent 4:50pm Oct 4.
+9 is consensus. It’s close to a split market with +8.5 so shop around. You might even be able to find a stray +9.5.
‘Official play’ means that this is one of our favorite plays of the week (perceived value, match-up, coaching, trends, etc.). We’re currently investing 25% more on these plays vs our ‘leans’. We’ll normally have two or three of these choices per week.
‘Lean’ means that we’re placing a standard size wager on the game. We’ll normally have about ten of these plays per week. Many members prefer to pick and choose amongst these games when finalizing their weekly investment cards so we’ll continue to refer to them as ‘leans’.
‘No leanage’ means that we won’t have any action on the game.
Team totals – We’ll list the implied number based on the point spread and total when our analysis is posted. If a team total ends up being an ‘official play’ we’ll post a widely available number at the time of pick release.