Week 7 – Florida at Tennessee
posted October 10
The Game
We’ve got a hot rivalry game brewing down in Knoxville on Saturday night as Florida travels to face mighty Tennessee. The Gators were left for dead before the season even started given the schedule that lay ahead but they come into this BAD BOY with mark of 3-2. Florida is getting healthier and they just played their best game of the season off the bye vs UCF (W 24-13). Tennessee was upset by WOO PIG last week after starting the season 4-0 and they can’t afford to lose this game if they wanna stay in the SEC race.
Let’s goooooo!
The Details
Tennessee -15.5 Florida (55.5)
MEGALOCKS LINE – Tennessee -13
“Vegas” Implied Projected Score: Tennessee 35.5 Florida 20
Tennessee offense vs Florida defense
The team photo of the Tennessee offense has been put on a MILK CARTON after their last two performances vs Oklahoma and Arkansas in which they put up a mere 345 and 332 yards of offense. The Vols still have one of the best RBs in the country in Dylan Sampson (587, 12 TD) but the WR group has been a bit of a disappointment (nobody with over 300Y), the OL play has been trending downwards (injuries haven’t helped), and their young phenom QB Nico Iamaleava appears to have flatlined for the moment. Nico’s completion % has declined every week since the start of the year and he’s only thrown 2 TD passes in the L3G whilst having minimal success down the field (5.4 YPA last week vs WOO PIG). Florida’s defense looked much better vs UCF and they’ve booked 8 sacks in the L2G. Nico has been sacked 7 times in the Vols’ L2G. There’s no doubt that Tennessee will find some holes in the Florida defense which is an average SEC outfit but we don’t expect them to go completely bananas, particularly since Tennessee has several WRs banged up and less than 100% as we approach press time.
Florida offense vs Tennessee defense
The Gators are going to have success at times with the THROW GAME as they’re one of the most efficient passing games in the country (#15 passing efficiency) and they’ve only been sacked twice in the last FOUR games (!). Tennessee has an excellent front seven but WOO PIG showed last week what you could do if given time to throw. Former Boise St QB Taylen Green and backup Malachi Singleton (both known more for their running ability) lit the Tennessee secondary up for 299 yards at an impossible 9.9 YPA (!). Florida will have to work for everything they get on the ground but RB Montrell Johnson is a beast and recall he just needed one little crack to break off a yuuuge TD run vs YOUR Miami Hurricanes in week one. Florida might get star WR Eugene Wilson back for this game but we’re not counting on it. WRs Elijah Badger and Chimere Dike have been very good so the Vols’ secondary is gonna have a challenge any way you slice it on Saturday.
Trends, Intangibles, and More!
Florida is 14-5 ATS L19 vs Tennessee and HC Billy Napier is 13-5-1 ATS (5-2 with Florida) as a road underdog……Tennessee has the massive game with ROLL TIDE on deck…..Florida has played the #26 schedule according to the Sagarin ratings…..Tennessee #76.
Summary
It would be quite the surprise if Florida won the game but this looks like too many points. Let’s take a shot with the underdog.
Conclusion
Official play – Florida +15.5 -110 <sent 10:45am Oct 10>
‘Official play’ means that this is one of our favorite plays of the week (perceived value, match-up, coaching, trends, etc.). We’re currently investing 25% more on these plays vs our ‘leans’. We’ll normally have two or three of these choices per week.
‘Lean’ means that we’re placing a standard size wager on the game. We’ll normally have about ten of these plays per week. Many members prefer to pick and choose amongst these games when finalizing their weekly investment cards so we’ll continue to refer to them as ‘leans’.
‘No leanage’ means that we won’t have any action on the game.
Team totals – We’ll list the implied number based on the point spread and total when our analysis is posted. If a team total ends up being an ‘official play’ we’ll post a widely available number at the time of pick release.