Week 7 – Ohio St at Oregon
posted October 10
The Game
WHOA, NELLIE.
We’ve got an incredible matchup to look forward to on Saturday night as Ohio St travels to the distant communist outpost of Eugene to tussle with the Oregon Ducks. Ohio has been a KILLING MACHINE ** to start the campaign and they’ve outscored the opposition to the tune of 230-34. Oregon didn’t look great in their first two contests to say the least but they’ve been improving every week and also enter this game with a mark of 5-0.
** Easy, Karen. That’s just an expression.
The Details
Ohio St -3 Oregon (54)
MEGALOCKS LINE – Ohio St -3.5
“Vegas” Implied Projected Score: Ohio St 28.5 Oregon 25.5
Ohio St offense vs Oregon defense
Yes, guy.
The Buckeyes have been devastating and balanced on offense this season and they rank #9 in total offense, #16 in rushing offense, and #23 in passing offense. The “who have they played?” argument will be addressed later, but it’s safe to assume that Ohio St is a lethal outfit. QB Will Howard has completed 72% of his passes at 9.6 YPA (12-3 TD to INT) and he’s got sneaky-good mobility that hasn’t been showcased as of yet. The Buckeyes have the most talented 1-2 combo in the country in Quinshon Judkins (7.8 YPC) and TreVeyon Henderson (8.0 YPC) and potentially the most lethal 1-2 WR duo in Jeremiah Smith (453, 19.7, 6 TD) and Emeka Egbuka (433, 14.4, 5 TD). Both of those doods will be playing on Sundays. Oregon has been stout on defense (#10 total defense) but the only offense with a pulse (Boise St) they faced gave them all kinds of issues, particularly with explosive runs. Guess what? Ohio St has some explosive RBs. Oregon has done a good job recently of getting to the passer (9 sacks L2G) but the Ohio St OL has been solid in pass protection (155 attempts, 4 sacks allowed). Ohio St is averaging 222 YPG on the ground and the last time they averaged over 200 YPG they went to the National Championship Game (lost to ROLL TIDE in 2020 PLANDEMIC season; Wear your mask, sheep).
Oregon offense vs Ohio St defense
The Ducks are starting to come around on offense but they’ve only hit the 40-point plateau once despite playing such incredible teams such as Idaho, Oregon St, UCLA, and Michigan St. They’re averaging 164 YPG on the ground which would be their worst production level since the Reagan administration ** should that trend continue. They’ve got one RB averaging over 4 YPC (!) and whilst Jordan James is excellent, we don’t like their depth. Also note that #1 WR Tez Johnson is averaging just 9.2 (!) YPC and Ohio St might have the most talent secondary in the county. Oh, and they’ve also booked 17 sacks in 5G (#12). Oregon has cleaned up the pass protection in recent weeks (7 sacks allowed F2G, none in L3G) but it remains to be seen how they’ll hold up vs the Ohio St DL. Our biggest impression after handicapping this game is that Oregon’s weapons are just not at the level of previous editions and we’d be much more leery of a mobile Bo Nix than Dillon Gabriel.
** Fact check – Possibly.
Trends, Intangibles, and More!
CROWD WILL BE ROCKING GUY will be all over the Ducks but the last time we checked, the “crowd” hasn’t recorded a sack in the last 100 years or scored a TD, but we’ll continue to monitor the situation…..These two HCs are approximately 5-39 SU in “big games” so maybe this BAD BOY will end up in a tie?……Just kidding….not really….Ohio St (away) and Oregon (home) both faced Michigan St and both games were senseless slaughters…..Since the beginning of the 2023 season, Ohio St has only allowed one team to score more than 17 points (Michigan)……..Ohio St HC Ryan Day is 21-2 SU in true road games with both of those losses coming to….you guessed it….the Wolverines……Ohio St has played “nobody” according to the interwebs but Oregon has faced…..<checks notes> nobody other than Boise St (won by three points).
Summary
Ohio St has the most balanced and productive offense in the country. They’ve also got a fantastic DL and secondary. We’ll call for the win and cover on Saturday night.
Conclusion
Official pick – Ohio St -3 -106
Sent 6:00pm Oct 10
-3 is listed virtually everywhere.
‘Official play’ means that this is one of our favorite plays of the week (perceived value, match-up, coaching, trends, etc.). We’re currently investing 25% more on these plays vs our ‘leans’. We’ll normally have two or three of these choices per week.
‘Lean’ means that we’re placing a standard size wager on the game. We’ll normally have about ten of these plays per week. Many members prefer to pick and choose amongst these games when finalizing their weekly investment cards so we’ll continue to refer to them as ‘leans’.
‘No leanage’ means that we won’t have any action on the game.
Team totals – We’ll list the implied number based on the point spread and total when our analysis is posted. If a team total ends up being an ‘official play’ we’ll post a widely available number at the time of pick release.