Week 7 QUICK TAKES – College Football Predictions
Here are some QUICK TAKES on the games that did not make the cut for a longer write-up this week.
Let’s go!
FRIDAY UPDATE 5pm. Done for the week. Enjoy the games and most importantly PLAY SAFE! See you next week!!
Handy index: Quick Takes
‘Official’ picks in blue. ‘Leans’ in green. Waiting on a number or information to make a potential play in orange.
- FIU at Liberty (Tuesday)
- New Mexico St at Jacksonville St (Wednesday)
- Mississippi St at Georgia
- Purdue at Illinois
- Boise St at Hawaii
- Arkansas St at Texas St
- UAB at Army
- Stanford at Notre Dame
- Utah at Arizona St (Friday)
- UTEP at Western Kentucky (Thursday)
- UNLV at Utah St (Friday)
- Coastal Carolina at James Madison (Thursday)
- Missouri at UMass
- MTSU at Louisiana Tech (Thursday)
- Memphis at USF (MOVED TO SATURDAY) (lean added on Thursday)
- South Carolina at ROLL TIDE
- Northwestern at Maryland (Friday)
- Clemson at Wake Forest
- Ball St at Kent St
- Akron at Western Michigan
- Minnesota at UCLA
- Appalachian St at Louisiana
- Vanderbilt at Kentucky
- Air Force at New Mexico
- Kansas St at Colorado
- Syracuse at NC State
- Ohio at Central Michigan
- Marshall at Georgia Southern
- Washington at Iowa
- Wisconsin at Rutgers
- Toledo at Buffalo
- San Jose St at Colorado St
- Georgia Tech at North Carolina
- Southern Miss at ULM
- Iowa St at West Virginia
- Old Dominion at Georgia St
- Miami Ohio at Eastern Michigan
- Washington St at Fresno St
- Texas vs Oklahoma
- Oregon St at Nevada
- UTSA at Rice
- Cincinnati at UCF
- Ole Miss at LSU
- Northern Illinois at Bowling Green
- California at Pittsburgh
- Penn St at USC
- Arizona at BYU
- San Diego St at Wyoming
- North Texas at FAU
- Louisville at Virginia
QUICK TAKES
1. Liberty -19 FIU (55)…………MEGALOCKS line – Liberty -18.5
Vegas Implied Score – Liberty 32 FIU 13
Yes, guy.
It’s time to get some SWEET TUESDAY NIGHT ACTION rolling as CUSA is gonna start treating us to some midweek beauties….Liberty has looked less than overwhelming to say the least whilst playing a schedule ranked in the 180s according to the Sagarin rankings but they’re 4-0 and still the team to beat in the conference…..Star QB Kaidon Salter has been decent thru the air but much less dangerous on the ground but we don’t know if that’s by choice or not…..Probably smart to keep him healthy….The Panthers are 2-3 and 1-0 in conference play after taking down Louisiana Tech in their last game….They’ve got some nice pieces on offense but rank in the 100s in YPG….The defense has struggled against the run which isn’t great news when facing Liberty but they’ve been very opportunistic and crafty vs the pass (#1 CUSA pass efficiency D, 5-6 TD to INT)…..Liberty is also near the bottom of the FBS in penalty yards per game….FIU has some legit athletes including QB Keyone Jenkins so it’s not unthinkable that they could keep this game within the number if Liberty makes a few mistakes and they make a few big plays on offense…..We’d want at least +20/+21 to take the plunge.
Holding pattern – Will wait to see if a +20/+21 pops up and go from there. Just chilling for now, yo.
TUESDAY UPDATE – MOB STEAM has been plastering FIU since Monday afternoon. This isn’t gonna hit +20 so we’ll take a pass. Maybe we get a miracle outright win from the Panthers for SEASON WIN TOTAL CLUB?
2. Jacksonville St -21 New Mexico St (57.5)…………MEGALOCKS line – Jacksonville St -20
Vegas Implied Score – Jacksonville St 39.25 New Mexico St 18.25
Jacksonville St is in the ZONE right now having rushed for 384/273 L2G in blowout wins over Southern Miss and Kennesaw St….Could only look to the favorite in this one as New Mexico St might be a SMIDGE better than the last two teams the Gamecocks destroyed but it’s hard to fade a team playing this well on offense…..Note that New Mexico St has allowed 331/280/281 yards on the ground L3G.
No leanage.
3. Georgia -33.5 Mississippi St (53.5)…………MEGALOCKS line – Georgia -31
Vegas Implied Score – Georgia 43.5 Mississippi St 10
The Bulldogs bounced back nicely off their loss to ROLL TIDE and had an efficient win over Auburn (W 31-13) last week….Mississippi St is in rebuilding mode and Georgia can name the score…They’ve got the yuuuge game at Texas up next.
No leanage
4. Illinois -19.5 Purdue (50.5)…………MEGALOCKS line – Illinois -18
Vegas Implied Score – Illinois 35 Purdue 15.5
Purdue is HOT GARBAGE but Illinois does their worst work vs the spread in the role of home favorite (12-21 ATS since 2014) and they’ve got a massive home date with Michigan (!) on deck….Note that Purdue HC Ryan Walters used to be the DC at Illinois.
No leanage
5. Boise St -21 Hawaii (61)…………MEGALOCKS line – Boise St -18.5
Vegas Implied Score – Boise St 41 Hawaii 20
The late night BAILOUT game on Saturday features a WHITE HOT Boise St team that’s scored 62/45/56/34/56 in their five outings and it’ll be interesting to see how they handle making the long trip out to Hawaii…..They’ve won all six meetings as Mountain West members and nine in a row overall…..This is a few too many points to lay in our minds but we’re not getting in front of this Boise St team right now…..Hawaii has been better than advertised on defense but disappointing on defense.
No leanage
6. Texas St -14 Arkansas St (63.5)…………MEGALOCKS line – Texas St -12
Vegas Implied Score – Texas St 38.75 Arkansas St 24.75
The Red Wolves pounded the life out of Texas St LY by a score of 77-31 (!) but that was one of the stranger FUN BELT games of the year as Arkansas St got every bounce and booked three (!) return TDs in that affair….REVENGE NARRATIVE GUY will be on the Bobcats but they haven’t been as dominant as we thought and recall that they blew a 22-CACK lead vs Sam Houston (!)….Arkansas St’s overall stats don’t look too great but they’ve only played five games and two of those came on the road vs Michigan and Iowa St….QB Jaylen Raynor is off to a slow start but he looked good when it mattered last week in the win over South Alabama…..An explosive team that they held to 16 points……Important game in the Sun Belt West….Don’t forecast a blowout either way……Only thing of concern is that Arkansas St plays much better at home under HC Butch Jones and they’re just 3-17 (!) SU on the road….They look competitive enough to keep it within the number so we’ll take a stab.
Lean – Arkansas St +14
Posted 11:35pm Oct 7
+14 is listed virtually everywhere
7. Army -25.5 UAB (55.5)…………MEGALOCKS line – Army -23
Vegas Implied Score – Army 40.5 UAB 15
Your boy Trent Dilfer has the UAB Blazers CIRCLING THE DRAIN as they just allowed a 70-BURGER to Tulane and looked bad doing it…..Army is steamrolling but this spread is hitting levels where oxygen is in short supply…..Fav or pass, we’ll take a seat.
No leanage
8. Notre Dame -23 Stanford (45)…………MEGALOCKS line – Notre Dame -21
Vegas Implied Score – Notre Dame 34 Stanford 11
The Irish have looked good since that heinous defeat at the hands of Northern Illinois…..Stanford hasn’t been that bad but we can’t back them or participate in one of their games from an investment standpoint until we see how the QB situation is sorted out…..Not much margin for error if you back Notre Dame given that the market is expecting a low scoring tilt.
No leanage
9. Utah -6.5 Arizona St (45.5)…………MEGALOCKS line – Utah -4
Vegas Implied Score – Utah 26 Arizona St 19.5
You know our stance on the CAM RISING CHRONICLES…….A year and a half of “will he play or won’t he?”….”how did he get injured this time?”…..The line is telling us he’s gonna play this week and now that Utah has a loss you know he’ll give it a go if he can…..We hope the star QB is ready to rumble but not gonna fret about it…..Can’t bet Utah games until we know that he’s either “in” or gone for the season.
No leanage
10. Western Kentucky -19.5 UTEP (58.5)…………MEGALOCKS line – Western Kentucky -20
Vegas Implied Score – Western Kentucky 39 UTEP 19.5
The TOPPERS can probably name the score in this one although the Miners did show a wee bit of life in their last game vs Sam Houston…..WKU has a yuuuge game with Sam Houston on deck that is essentially an elimination game in CUSA.
No leanage
11. UNLV -18.5 Utah St (64.5)…………MEGALOCKS line – UNLV -19
Vegas Implied Score – UNLV 41.5 Utah St 23
It’s favorite or pass in this BAD BOY but we’re just not sure if we get an “A” or even “B+” version of the Rebels after they gave everything they had over the last two games vs Fresno St and Syracuse (lost in OT)……Utah St is PURE FILTH but can score a TD here and there to make covering the spread a challenge for UNLV if they’re not focused.
No leanage
12. James Madison -9.5 Coastal Carolina (62)…………MEGALOCKS line – James Madison -8.5
Vegas Implied Score – James Madison 35.75 Coastal Carolina 26.25
We definitely like James Madison to bounce back after their loss to ULM last week in which they outgained the Warhawks 399-257 (!)….They scored 133 (!) points in their previous two games vs UNC and Ball St and now face a porous Chanticleers defense that ranks #117 vs the run and #73 in pass efficiency defense…..James Madison has been good on defense but they gave up over 600Y to UNC and have only booked 15 sacks (45 LY)….The Chants have allowed just two (!) sacks all year and have scored 45/24/28/40/55 in their 5G….The ‘over’ might be the best play but the official ‘open’ was near 59 and we haven’t seen this much STEAM since the final scene of LATVIAN LASSIES 3…….It’s at 62 and probably going higher…..The two starting QBs have a combined TD to INT mark of 19-3……Recall that JMU has won the L2Y by scores of 56-14 and 47-7.
No leanage
13. Missouri -27.5 UMass (53.5)…………MEGALOCKS line – Missouri -29.5
Vegas Implied Score – Missouri 40.5 UMass 13
This is not a TYPO…..Missouri is traveling to the communist stronghold of Amherst, Massachusetts just a week after they were smoked by Texas A&M and right before they come back home to face Auburn……Missouri is obviously overrated and their performance last week was disgusting…..But how do they do not drill UMass?….Well, the Minutemen have been a scrappy outfit for a good chunk of the season and they may not ever host an SEC opponent ever again…..Was hoping to see a line in the 30s to take a position with UMass but here we are.
No leanage
14. Louisiana Tech -5 MTSU (50)…………MEGALOCKS line – Louisiana Tech -3.5
Vegas Implied Score – Louisiana Tech 27.5 MTSU 22.5
Yes, we know that MTSU is disgusting….but they might not be a complete BOTTOM FEEDER…..Their results need to be understood with a bit of context as they’ve played Ole Miss/WKU/Duke/Memphis in their L4G and all of those teams are going bowling and they have a combined record of 17-5 (!) as we approach press time…….Louisiana Tech’s offense is an ABOMINATION but their defense is playing really well (#24 FBS total defense) and that’s the only thing ** keeping us off the Blue Raiders.
** but a big one, yo.
No leanage
15. Memphis -7.5 USF (59.5)…………MEGALOCKS line – Memphis -7
Vegas Implied Score – Memphis 33.5 USF 26
NOTE – GAME MOVED TO SATURDAY
The Tigers have been a much improved outfit on defense even when you factor in the DEBACLE vs Navy in which they lost 56-44….Memphis is #29 in the country in total defense (#111 LY) and they’ve allowed 7/12/17/0 in their four other games….QB Seth Henigan has done a good job of protecting the football but the explosive plays haven’t been there in the THROW GAME….The good news is that USF’s defense ranks #71 vs the run and #127 in pass efficiency defense….Memphis has started to get the run game going and they’ll be balanced enough to have quite a bit of success in this game….USF QB Byrum Brown hasn’t been the same player this season but it’s possible that we haven’t seen his best given that the Bulls have had to play ROLL TIDE, YOUR Miami Hurricanes, and Tulane…..Like the Tigers but we’ll see if a -7 pops up again.
Holding pattern – Waiting for -7 for potential action.
UPDATE
Lean – Memphis -7
Posted 2:50pm Oct 10
-7 is listed virtually everywhere.
16. ROLL TIDE -21 South Carolina (50.5)…………MEGALOCKS line – ROLL TIDE -22
Vegas Implied Score – ROLL TIDE 36.25 South Carolina 14.25
We’re not interested in backing either team at the windows this week…..ROLL TIDE just lost to mighty Vanderbilt in an epic SHOCK the WORLD moment whilst South Cackalacky struggled to get anything going on offense vs Ole Miss.
No leanage
17. Maryland -10 Northwestern (45)…………MEGALOCKS line – Maryland -10
Vegas Implied Score – Maryland 27.5 Northwestern 17.5
Both teams are very capable of exceeding their implied team totals……..Maryland has one of the best passing attacks in the country (#12 passing offense) behind QB Billy Edwards Jr (11-2 TD to INT, 8.2, 72%) and star WR Tai Felton…..Northwestern has had a pair of decent games thru the air since the switch at QB to Jack Lausch with the only hiccup coming at Washington…..Both teams are in the bottom-four in the Big Ten in pass defense….Northwestern has played some SNOT BUBBLERS but have a bit of a new identity and Maryland’s game totals this year have been 70/58/40/51/57……The Cats won LY’s game 33-27.
Lean – Over 45 -115
Posted 10:45am Oct 8
45 -115 is the market consensus. It’s close to a split market with 45.5. You should be able to find a 45 -112 to -118 fairly easily.
18. Clemson -20 Wake Forest (60.5)…………MEGALOCKS line – Clemson -18
Vegas Implied Score – Clemson 40.25 Wake Forest 20.25
The line looks a bit rich to us but Clemson was much better than the final score indicated last week vs Florida Stank and Wake Forest struggled to move the ball consistently last week vs NC State despite putting up 34 points…..Wake Forest is the worst team in the Power 4 in terms of total defense (460 YPG, #125).
No leanage
19. Ball St -6.5 Kent St (59.5)…………MEGALOCKS line – Ball St -8.5
Vegas Implied Score – Ball St 33 Kent St 26.5
Kent St has looked like PURE FILTH but there might, just might be a flicker of hope with TD TOMMY Ulatowski at QB (3 TD, 345 yards last week)…..Ball St only lost by three points to Western Michigan and Central Michigan….Kent St lost last week to Eastern Michigan 52-33 but they were (-4) in t/o margin…..Ball St has the more reliable and consistent offense BUT both defenses are disgusting….Kent St dead last 583 YPG, Ball St 513 YPG 2nd to last…….Kent St has played the much tougher schedule (#13 vs #87) and the home team has won 8L9….Power ratings say Ball St, gut feel says Kent St goes all out for their first win and maybe stays in the game…..Still pondering.
Holding pattern – Pondering a play on Ball St. If it hits -7 in the meantime, we’ll pass. So be it.
UPDATE – no play on this game.
20. Western Michigan -9.5 Akron (53.5)…………MEGALOCKS line – Western Michigan -8
Vegas Implied Score – Western Michigan 31.5 Akron 22
The Broncos have been WE WE THOUGHT THEY WERE on offense but the defense has been a disappointment (#114 total defense)…..Akron’s offense is gross but the defense has been solid considering the competition they’ve faced….And they gave Bowling Green all they could handle last week…..”Go” price for the Broncos is -7 and +11 for Akron and here we are.
No leanage
21. Minnesota -5 UCLA (40)…………MEGALOCKS line – Minnesota -3.5
Vegas Implied Score – Minnesota 22.5 UCLA 17.5
The Gophers are feeling good after the yuuuge home win over USC last Saturday and now they take a drop in class whilst heading out to the west coast…..UCLA is a tough team to get a read upon as their defense has been solid but the offense has no pop….We liked how new starting QB Justyn Martin looked vs Penn St on the road (!) last week but they may return to Ethan Garbers who’s apparently back at practice according to our DEEP UCLA INSIDERS…..Tough call.
No leanage
22. Louisiana -10.5 Appalachian St (64.5)…………MEGALOCKS line – Louisiana -9
Vegas Implied Score – Louisiana 37.5 Appalachian St 27
You know we love ourselves some SWEET CAJUN ACTION despite their failure to cover vs Southern Miss last week but the spread is just a little bit out of control….Louisiana will be able to SCORE the FOOTBALL but note that Appalachian St was in a horrible spot last week vs Marshall given the hurricane-related devastation suffered in their community but they played well and outgained (!) Marshall 473-365 in a 52-37 loss (-2 in turnovers, 15 penalties).
No leanage
23. Kentucky -13.5 Vanderbilt (46.5)…………MEGALOCKS line – Kentucky -11
Vegas Implied Score – Kentucky 30 Vanderbilt 16.5
Impossible to take Vanderbilt after the ULTIMATE and forever incredible SHOCK the WORLD moment last week as they took down Alabama……It’s just a few too many points to back Kentucky given how anemic their offense has been this season…..Vanderbilt has also beaten Virginia Tech and lost in OT to Missouri.
No leanage
24. New Mexico -6.5 Air Force (54)…………MEGALOCKS line – New Mexico -7
Vegas Implied Score – New Mexico 30.25 Air Force 23.75
The Lobos are starting to improve under HC Bronco Mendenhall and whilst the defense is completely disgusting they’ve got one of the best QBs in the Group of Five in Devon Dampier…..New Mexico took down New Mexico St 50-40 last time out and the week before that they outgained Fresno St on the road 485-345 but found a way to lose by 17….Now they’re off a bye and Air Force is off a crushing loss to Navy….Also note that Air Force ranks #131 in the nation in total offense (249 YPG) and #131 in YPP….And their defense is the worst it’s been in years.
Lean – New Mexico -6.5
Posted 5:15pm Oct 8
-6.5 is listed virtually everywhere
25. Kansas St -4 Colorado (56.5)…………MEGALOCKS line – Kansas St -5.5
Vegas Implied Score – Kansas St 30.25 Colorado 26.25
We haven’t had a good feel for either of these squads as Colorado smashed UCF out of nowhere last time out and now they’re off a bye week coming home….We’re not as high on Kansas St as most of the market but they should probably be favored by closer to a TD……Then again, they SHAT the BED in their last road game at BYU…..Kansas St is also off a bye…..Puzzler, but a game worth watching!
No leanage
26. Syracuse -4.5 NC State (55)…………MEGALOCKS line – Syracuse -4.5
Vegas Implied Score – Syracuse 29.75 NC State 25.25
The line appears to be DEAD ON BALLS ACCURATE ** and whilst we have no doubt that Syracuse is the better outfit it’s hard to ignore that NC State’s market value has hit rock bottom and they may be ready to start an upswing under new starting QB CJ Bailey and note that the Pack outgained Wake Forest 419-315 in their loss last week….2nd straight home game for NC State, 2nd game in a row ON THE HIGHWAY for the Orange who needed OT to beat UNLV in their last outing.
** an industry term
No leanage
27. Ohio -3 Central Michigan (49)…………MEGALOCKS line – Ohio -1
Vegas Implied Score – Ohio 26 Central Michigan 23
This is a sneaky-important game in the MAC as both of these squads roll into the game with conference records of 1-0…..FIRE UP CHIPS have a two-game winning streak going after taking care of Ball St and San Diego St…….Ohio is 3-2 overall with their only losses coming at Syracuse (!) and at Kentucky (!)…..We have the Bobcats rated about a FG better on a neutral site and they’re the better team in our eyes but TREND GUY needs to inform you that Central Michigan has owned the series….27-4-1 (!) SU….6-1 SU L7.
No leanage
28. Marshall -1.5 Georgia Southern (61.5)…………MEGALOCKS line – Georgia Southern -1
Vegas Implied Score – Marshall 31.5 Georgia Southern 30
This is one of most underrated G5 games of the weekend as two of the three undefeated (in Sun Belt play) teams atop the East division square off in Statesboro….Marshall found some magic last week with dual-threat QB Braylon Braxton at the controls as they took down App St despite being outgained by over 100Y (+2 in t/o margin)……Herd backers have been ROLLING in the DOUGH so far as Marshall is 4-0 ATS as we approach press time….The Eagles are off a bye and are a tough team to beat at home under HC Clay Helton (10-4 SU)…..Feels like a coin toss and Georgia Southern gets on the short list for the ML UNDERDOG CLUB this week.
No leanage
29. Iowa -2.5 Washington (42)…………MEGALOCKS line – Iowa -3
Vegas Implied Score – Iowa 22.25 Washington 19.75
It’s a tough spot for Washington coming off the yuuuge win over Michigan…..Iowa was just beat up by Ohio St……The one thing that stands out is the performance of the Huskies’ defense….They’re the #1 (!) pass efficiency defense in the nation (3-4 TD to INT, 47%, 4.5 YPA!) and they’ve only allowed ONE pass over 30 yards (none over 40 yards) all season…..Iowa can’t throw the ball with any success so we don’t expect the Huskies to give up much at all thru the air, although you can never count out a fluky play or two……Washington has a bit of a SOFT UNDERBELLY vs the run so we expect Iowa to move it on the ground and get that clock rolling……But it’ll be a grind because the Huskies are only allowing 4.06 (!) YPP in Big Ten play (Northwestern, Rutgers, Michigan)….Iowa’s total yardage output in three games vs Power 4 competition…..226/334/303…..Washington has allowed 17/21/5/24/9/3 in their six games.
Lean – Iowa team total under 22.25 (implied)
Posted 10:10am Oct 9
21.5 and 22.5 are both widely available at various price points.
30. Rutgers -2.5 Wisconsin (40.5)…………MEGALOCKS line – Rutgers -2.5
Vegas Implied Score – Rutgers 21.5 Wisconsin 19
The Badgers lost QB Tyler Van Dyke formerly of YOUR Miami Hurricanes but Braedyn Locke hasn’t looked that bad especially since two of the games he played in were vs ROLL TIDE and USC….We also prefer RB Tawee Walker to Chez Mellusi who’s OFY….Their defense has been good but not great……Rutgers lost their first game of the season last week at CORN and are gonna test the Wisconsin run D with star RB Kyle Monangai (667, 6 TD)….Line looks about right.
No leanage
31. Toledo -9.5 Buffalo (44.5)…………MEGALOCKS line – Toledo -8.5
Vegas Implied Score – Toledo 27 Buffalo 17.5
We’ve got some sweet MACTION ACTION on Saturday afternoon as two of the seven undefeated teams (in MAC play) go head to head in the land of CHICKEN WINGS…..Whilst Toledo is the much more talented outfit don’t forget that no matter how ugly it may have been, Buffalo took down the same Northern Illinois team that beat Notre Dame……Both teams are in the top-three in the MAC in terms of YPP defense….Would have liked to go under something around 47 but here we are.
No leanage
32. San Jose St -1 Colorado St (56)…………MEGALOCKS line – Pick ’em
Vegas Implied Score – San Jose 28.5 Colorado St 27.5
The Rams are coming off a REALLY tough loss at Oregon St where they gave the Beavers all they could handle in a 39-31 2OT loss…..Star WR Tory Horton finally got back to health and had a yuuuge day but the real strength of this Rams team is the 1-2 combo at RB (Morrow/Marshall) who’ll have success vs the #94 run D in the nation….San Jose St needed a late TD to get past Nevada last week….Rams have covered 4L5 in series….Was hoping to catch 3+ with the Rams but they looked too good last week.
No leanage
33. Georgia Tech -5 North Carolina (59)…………MEGALOCKS line – Georgia Tech -6
Vegas Implied Score – Georgia Tech 32 North Carolina 27
Could only look towards the Yellow Jackets in this one as the Tar Heels are watching their season go GLUG GLUG GLUG down the drain with three consecutive losses….The funny thing is that North Carolina has a talented roster and they’d outgained every opponent all season until last week’s loss to Pitt…..They’re a PUZZLE wrapped up inside an ENIGMA……Line looks about right.
No leanage
34. ULM -6.5 Southern Miss (41.5)…………MEGALOCKS line – ULM -7.5
Vegas Implied Score – ULM 24 Southern Miss 17.5
Yes, guy.
You know we’ve got the ULM BOWL ELIGIBILITY COUNTDOWN CLOCK hanging in our Worldwide HQ and they’re sitting at 4-1 as we approach press time…..This is the easiest game remaining on their schedule and a game they really need….Southern Miss is PURE FILTH but how does ULM react after their yuuuge win over James Madison?….And more importantly….Can they cover as a home favorite?…..4-17-2 ATS L10Y (!)…..And even more importantly…..Can you trust a team to win by a TD when their offense is so putrid?…..257/247/111/296 yards of offense vs FBS opposition…..Still prefer the Warhawks but we probably won’t get to the window.
No lenanage
35. Iowa St -3 West Virginia (53)…………MEGALOCKS line – Iowa St -3
Vegas Implied Score – Iowa St 28 West Virginia 25
Iowa St has been WHO WE THOUGHT THEY WERE this season (5-0) and they’ve done nothing wrong outscoring their opponents (including Iowa on the road) by a combined margin of 156-50…..They’ve got one of the best QBs in the Big 12 in Rocco Becht, a pair of DOODS at WR, and a run game that’s pounded out 237/240/265 L3G…..The defense is gonna give up yards to the excellent WV rushing attack but the Cyclones are #4 in the nation in pass efficiency D and that’s gonna make a weak WV THROW GAME even worse…..On the flipside the Mountaineers have major issues defending the pass (#124 pass efficiency D)…..We like Iowa St as they’ve got the more balanced offense and better stop unit…..Let’s see if some MOB STEAM bangs this down to -2.5…..If it goes to -3.5 so be it, we’ll take a pass.
Holding pattern – Waiting to see if -2.5 emerges from the depths. Unlikely, but not completely impossible.
Update – no play.
36. Georgia St -1.5 Old Dominion (55.5)…………MEGALOCKS line – Pick ’em
Vegas Implied Score – Georgia St 28.5 Old Dominion 27
Not a game we’re interested in betting as Old Dominion is the better team in our estimation but they’ve SPILLED their GUTS on the field this year and it’s not even the middle of October….Georgia St is a bit better than anticipated and they’re coming off a bye week…..Fun fact – the Panthers have actually had TWO bye weeks already so they’ve gotta be nice and fresh, yo.
No leanage
37. Miami Ohio -2.5 Eastern Michigan (46.5)…………MEGALOCKS line – Miami Ohio -4
Vegas Implied Score – Miami Ohio 24.5 Eastern Michigan 22
Miami Ohio has been a disappointment so far but keep in mind that they’ve played the #34 (!) schedule in the nation (at Northwestern, Cincy, at Irish, at Toledo) and they’ve still got a veteran QB and a solid defense….Eastern Michigan is 5-0 ATS as we approach press time but their last two wins came against Kent St and something known as “St Francis”….Also note that the Eagles are #85 in total offense and #76 in total defense despite playing the #163 (!!) schedule……Miami isn’t dead until they lose their next MAC game so we expect a max effort.
Lean – Miami Ohio -2.5
Posted 5:18pm Oct 9
-2.5 is the consensus number. You can find a rogue -2 if you dig deep.
38. Washington St -3.5 Fresno St (61.5)…………MEGALOCKS line – Washington St -5
Vegas Implied Score – Washington St 32.5 Fresno St 29
These are two of the most difficult teams to assess in the entirety of the FBS in our estimation and we’re not interested in this contest from an investment standpoint……Washington St QB John Mateer has been one of the most pleasant QB surprises in the entire FBS but the Cougars rank #126 in the FBS in total defense.
No leanage
39. Texas -14.5 Oklahoma (50.5)…………MEGALOCKS line – Texas -13
Vegas Implied Score – Texas 32.5 Oklahoma 18
Yes, guy.
It’s the Red River SHOOTOUT……….PEW PEW PEW! Guns!! PEW PEW……RAT A TAT TAT…..Guns!…..RAT A TAT TAT….We know the censors on the interwebs hate guns unless they’re used by the government we CANNOT refer to this game as the Red River SHOOTOUT any longer but here we are…..Texas is clearly one of the top-three teams in the country as we approach press time but the Sooners have an excellent defense…….We’ve had a wager on this game almost every season dating back to the Hoover administration but there’s just too much uncertainty……Will Texas have their starting QB back?….Will Oklahoma have ANYONE back at WR???…..Prefer the Sooners but gonna watch and wait for more info…….Maybe we get down on Friday.
Holding pattern – Need more clarity on who is suiting up.
UPDATE – Have to do the unthinkable and pass on this game. PEW PEW PEW!!!! Guns! Let’s gooooo!
40. Oregon St -3.5 Nevada (47.5)…………MEGALOCKS line – Oregon St -5
Vegas Implied Score – Oregon St 25.5 Nevada 22
Games involving the “PAC 2” are really hard to assess whether it be Oregon St or Washington St….Oregon St has the more talented roster but Nevada has overachieved all year and they almost beat SMU at home.
No leanage
41. UTSA -5.5 Rice (51.5)…………MEGALOCKS line – UTSA -4
Vegas Implied Score – UTSA 28.5 Rice 23
After getting smoked by Houston and Army on the road, a pair of losses which look better by the day, the Owls played their best game of the year and somehow lost to Charlotte (another improving squad) despite winning the yardage battle 463-304….They’re off a bye as are the Roadrunners who’ve been a major disappointment this season…Can they finally put it together?…..The talent just doesn’t POP according to our WATCH THE TAPE GUY as much as it did in previous seasons….It’s worth noting tho that UTSA is 8-0 SU and 6-2 ATS L8 vs Rice.
No leanage
42. UCF -3.5 Cincinnati (58.5)…………MEGALOCKS line – UCF -3.5
Vegas Implied Score – UCF 31 Cincinnati 27.5
The Knights are watching their season go GLUG GLUG GLUG down the tubes after a pair of beatdowns at the hands of Colorado and Florida and one more conference loss could mean the end of their Big 12 dreams….The Bearcats come in off a bye and they’ve lost two games by a combined four points (Pitt, Texas Tech)…..The Red Raiders rushed for 231 yards vs Cincinnati in the Bearcats’ last outing so that’s our only worry in backing the Bearcats who are getting excellent QB play from our boy Brendan Sorsby (12-1 TD to INT)…….Will UCF wake up from their slumber?? Don’t forget that they lost five in a row at one point last year before snapping out of their funk….Also note that Cincinnati’s star RB Corey Kiner is listed as questionable although the bye week probably helped the healing process…..UCF won this meeting the L2Y by scores of 28-26 and 25-21…..Currently pondering a play on the dog and/or inclusion in the ML Underdog card.
Holding pattern – Stay tuned as per above.
UPDATE. No play. Cincinnati added to ML dogs.
43. Ole Miss -3.5 LSU (62)…………MEGALOCKS line – Ole Miss -5
Vegas Implied Score – Ole Miss 32.75 LSU 29.25
In our humble opinion, after a lot of digging into this game it seems that once again the intrepid Brad Powers has said it best about choosing a side in this game….Ole Miss has the better team and a big advantage on defense…..But LSU has one of the best spots imaginable coming off a bye (Ole Miss will be playing for the 7th consecutive week) whilst playing at home….We’ll add that Ole Miss is holding their breath in terms of the injury to star WR Tre Harris who is BY FAR the Rebels’ #1 weapon…..He’s got 52 receptions (next on team is 18) and 885 receiving yards (next on team has 371) and he’s listed as either “questionable” and “doubtful” depending on which lie you want to believe…..We’ll also note that LSU HC Brian Kelly is an impossible 45-24-2 ATS (65%) as an underdog over his illustrious career.
No leanage
44. Bowling Green -3 Northern Illinois (48)…………MEGALOCKS line – Bowling Green -1.5
Vegas Implied Score – Bowling Green 25.5 Northern Illinois 22.5
Our DEEP MAC INSIDERS have these teams about even on a neutral site (NIU by half a point) and we’ll roll with the Huskies in this one as we’ll trust the #10 (!) rushing offense in the country vs the #113 (!) run defense and the #10 (!) overall defense vs the #67 offense….Bowling Green has played the slightly tougher schedule, NIU beat Notre Dame…..Northern Illinois has won six consecutive regular season matchups and this is a do-or-die game for their MAC dreams as they already have a conference loss and we don’t forecast a two-loss team getting into the MAC DANCE in December.
Lean – Northern Illinois +3 -115
Posted 2:08pm Oct 10
+3 -115 is the consensus. It’s close to a split market with +2.5 -105. You can find a +3 at -110/-112/-113 so shop around.
45. Pittsburgh -3.5 California (58.5)…………MEGALOCKS line – Pittsburgh -4
Vegas Implied Score – Pittsburgh 31 California 27.5
Not a game we’ll be participating in from an investment standpoint…..The communists from Berkeley played a fine game vs YOUR Miami Hurricanes last week but blew a 35-10 lead and lost…..a tough break for a swell bunch of guys…..Now they’ve gotta travel all the way to Pitt to battle the high-powered Panthers offense….The good news for Cal is that they’ve got the better defense, particularly vs the pass where they rank #9 in the country in pass efficiency defense (5-11 TD to INT! 56%) and that’s the kind of team that can theoretically give Pitt some trouble….Also note that Cal HC Justin Wilcox excels ATS in the role of road underdog….Tough call at this price point.
No leanage
46. Penn St -3.5 USC (50.5)…………MEGALOCKS line – Penn St -4
Vegas Implied Score – Penn St 27 USC 23.5
We definitely prefer the Nittany Lions in this affair as they’ve got a devastating rushing attack (218 YPG, #19) particularly with Nicholas Singleton back in the mix this week (408, 7.7)….USC has a ton of trouble stopping the run (#86) and they allowed 290 rushing yards to Michigan and 193 to Minnesota….Penn St’s defense is one of the best in the country and should be able to keep USC under wraps for the majority of the game….They’ve only allowed two plays of 40+ yards this season…Penn St QB Drew Allar has a tidy 9-1 TD to INT mark….We’ll see if a -3 pops up later today, and if not we’ll think about laying -3.5 or -4.
Holding pattern – Watching line movement on Friday.
Update – pass.
47. BYU -3 Arizona (49)…………MEGALOCKS line – BYU -3
Vegas Implied Score – BYU 26 Arizona 23
The Cougars have been one of the most pleasant surprises in college football this year (5-0) and they’re one of five Big 12 teams undefeated in conference action as we approach press time….The last time we saw BYU on this field that were outgained 367-241 by Kansas St but found a way to win 38-9 (!) in one of the stranger games in the Big 12 so far…..We’re not crazy about this Arizona squad and they’re coming off a home loss to Texas Tech whilst BYU is coming off a bye…..Prefer the Cougars but the Cats have a yuuuge talent edge at QB and a future NFL WR.
No leanage
48. Wyoming -1 San Diego St (42)…………MEGALOCKS line – Wyoming -3
Vegas Implied Score – Wyoming 21.5 San Diego St 20.5
The Cowboys have been playing some disgusting football by their standards but they might have found a bit of life before the bye week with a win over a struggling Air Force squad….Now their off a bye and playing another home game and they’ve been a tough team to beat on their home field….41-21 SU since the start of the 2014 campaign…..San Diego St played their best game of the year last week in a squeaker vs Hawaii (W 27-24) and have the more reliable offensive weapons at RB/WR and QB.
No leanage
49. North Texas -5 FAU (59)…………MEGALOCKS line – North Texas -6.5
Vegas Implied Score – North Texas 32 FAU 27
The Mean Green are one of the best teams in the AAC and they’re certainly one of the most explosive behind QB Chandler Morris (16-6 TD to INT) and a deep group of RBs that keeping rolling despite losing some guys due to injury….The Mean Green D is improved but still MEH (#7 AAC YPP; FAU #6)…..The Owls have faced one of the worst set of QBs in the entire country and whilst they can play decent on the back end we expect North Texas to outscore a brutal Owls offense (#105 total offense, #121 passing) by a TD or more……Mean Green have won by 14/15/27/32 vs Non-Power 4 opposition and are off a bye.
Lean – North Texas -5
Posted 11:07am Oct 11
-5 is consensus
50. Louisville -7.5 Virginia (54.5)…………MEGALOCKS line – Louisville -6.5
Vegas Implied Score – Louisville 31 Virginia 23.5
Need to do a bit more work on this game Friday afternoon but prefer the home dog that’s been much better than we anticipated….They’ve been excellent vs the run (#36) and have a balanced offense (#52 rush, #47 pass) that features some underrated RB and WR talent…….LUA-VUH is coming off a pair of crushing losses to Notre Dame and SMU and now have to hit the road…..And they’ve got YOUR Miami Hurricanes up next.
Holding pattern – Stay tuned!
Update – pass.
‘Official play’ means that this is one of our favorite plays of the week (perceived value, match-up, coaching, trends, etc.). We’re currently investing 25% more on these plays vs our ‘leans’. We’ll normally have two or three of these choices per week.
‘Lean’ means that we’re placing a standard size wager on the game. We’ll normally have about ten of these plays per week. Many members prefer to pick and choose amongst these games when finalizing their weekly investment cards so we’ll continue to refer to them as ‘leans’.
‘No leanage’ means that we won’t have any action on the game.
Team totals – We’ll list the implied number based on the point spread and total when our analysis is posted. If a team total ends up being an ‘official play’ we’ll post a widely available number at the time of pick release.