Week 8 – Alabama at Tennessee
posted October 16
The Game
Here we go!
This is almost certainly an elimination game in terms of the competition for the SEC Championship as Alabama travels to Knoxville to battle Tennessee on Saturday afternoon. ROLL TIDE has had back-to-back disappointing performances vs Vanderbilt (L) and South Carolina (W) after their big win over Georgia and they need to turn things around quickly if they plan on being a factor in the CFP conversation come late November. Tennessee started the season like a HOUSAFIRE but they’ve looked very average in their last three games as the level of competition has increased. Can they snap out of their offensive funk vs Alabama?
The Details
Alabama -3 Tennessee (56.5)
MEGALOCKS LINE – Alabama -4
“Vegas” Implied Projected Score: Alabama 29.75 Tennessee 26.75
ROLL TIDE offense vs Tennessee defense
It all starts and ends with star QB Jalen Milroe who’s been hitting big plays thru the air (72%, 12-4 TD to INT, 11.2 YPA) and doing a great job gaining yards with his legs (12 rushing TDs). ROLL TIDE has a respectable 1-2 combo at RB in Jam Miller (7.1) and Justice Haynes (6.4) but those guys have been a bit underwhelming vs the tougher opponents they’ve faced. The depth in the WR room has been tested by injuries but they boast one of the most explosive players in the country in Ryan Williams (576, 25.0!, 6 TD) and Germie Bernard has been a decent #2 option. The OL has been good but not great, but at least they’ve been getting healthier. Also note that after ROLL TIDE allowed an impossible 49 (!) sacks LY they’ve only allowed 12 in 6G this season. Tennessee is #7 in the nation in run defense but those gaudy numbers were put up vs a bunch of TOMATO CANS for the most part and they yielded 134 yards on the ground to WOO PIG and 138 to the Gators. The pass rush has been ok but the secondary leaves a lot to be desired as we pointed out last week. The Volunteers allowed 297 yards thru the air to WOO PIG (!) and Florida QB Graham Mertz was doing excellent work before he left due to injury (223 passing yards in game for Florida). Tennessee lost leading tackler Keenan Pili for the season which isn’t ideal but we still expect their talented front seven to make some plays vs an inconsistent Alabama offense. However, as the game rolls along it feels like DESTINY that Milroe will do some serious damage with his legs and connect with Ryan Williams on a few deep shots.
Tennessee offense vs ROLL TIDE defense
It’s a similar story on this side of the football for Tennessee as they looked really good in their three tune-up games (64 PPG) but they’ve been very mediocre vs SEC competition (21 PPG; #14 SEC in YPP). QB Nico Iamaleava has been sacked 10 times in the L3G (thankfully, ROLL TIDE’s pass rush is ‘meh’) and he’s got a very disappointing 1-1 TD to INT mark in SEC action with ESPN QBRs of 17.5 and 38.2 L2G. They haven’t been able to get much going in the medium/deep THROW GAME but maybe they can take advantage of a ROLL TIDE secondary that’s been more than happy to give up big plays this season? RB Dylan Sampson will get a lot of work and he’s been great (five 100-yard games) but it’s doubtful that he’ll be able to put the team on his back and allow the Volunteers win the game on the ground. Tennessee has struggled mightily moving the ball vs SEC opposition and the Tide held Vanderbilt to 5.6 YPP and South Cackalacky to 5.3 YPP. Georgia had an incredibly successful run on the Alabama defense in the 2nd half but that was with an NFL-caliber QB and an elite pass protecting OL. It’s hard to see Tennessee having anything close to that level of success, although we fully expect them to hit a few big plays just due to the fact that ROLL TIDE has been so bad on the back end.
Trends, Intangibles, and More!
Alabama has won 16 of the last 17 meetings between these two programs…….The weather forecast looks perfect for Saturday afternoon….Tennessee HC Josh Heupel is 1-4 ATS as a home dog with the Volunteers.
Summary
We’ll roll with the team that’s got one of the best players in college football in QB Jalen Milroe and the squad with the much higher ceiling. Whether you like it or not, they did beat Georgia. CROWD WILL BE ROCKING GUY had to be disappointed with how Tennessee looked at home last week vs Florida in a game they easily could have lost and we don’t think ROLL TIDE will mind getting away from Tuscaloosa this Saturday.
Conclusion
Official play – Alabama -3 -109
Sent 2:15pm Oct 16
-3 is listed virtually everywhere.
‘Official play’ means that this is one of our favorite plays of the week (perceived value, match-up, coaching, trends, etc.). We’re currently investing 25% more on these plays vs our ‘leans’. We’ll normally have two or three of these choices per week.
‘Lean’ means that we’re placing a standard size wager on the game. We’ll normally have about ten of these plays per week. Many members prefer to pick and choose amongst these games when finalizing their weekly investment cards so we’ll continue to refer to them as ‘leans’.
‘No leanage’ means that we won’t have any action on the game.
Team totals – We’ll list the implied number based on the point spread and total when our analysis is posted. If a team total ends up being an ‘official play’ we’ll post a widely available number at the time of pick release.