Week 8 – Miami at Louisville
posted October 18
The Game
Yes, guy.
YOUR undefeated Miami Hurricanes take the field in Louisville at high noon on Saturday to battle the Cardinals in a duel of two ACC contenders. Miami sits at 6-0 but have escaped by the skin of their teeth to say the least in their last two affairs vs California and Virginia Tech. LUA-VUH is 4-2 but they gave Notre Dame all they could handle in South Bend and hope to reassert themselves in the ACC race with a win over the Canes.
Let’s gooooooo!
The Details
Miami -5 Louisville (60.5)
MEGALOCKS LINE – Miami -6.5
“Vegas” Implied Projected Score: Miami 32.75 Louisville 27.5
Miami offense vs Louisville defense
The Hurricanes have moved like a TREMENDOUS MACHINE all season and they lead the country in total offense (584 YPG) and scoring offense (48 PPG). QB Cam Ward is playing at a Heisman-contending level (20-5 TD to INT, 3 rush TD) but he’s gonna make a horrific mistake once or twice a game. You just gotta live with it, yo. They’ve got a deep group of RBs and a sinister set of WR/TE weaponry led by Xavier Restrepo (585, 18.3, 5 TD) who’s an elite route runner with great hands. The Canes have only allowed 9 sacks all year (#5 ACC) and they’ll get starting LT Jalen Rivers back for this tilt. The Cardinals haven’t been nearly as stout on defense as they were in 2023 and they rank #42 in the country in run defense and #75 in pass efficiency defense. They’ve only intercepted TWO passes all season but have done a decent job of achieving PENETRATION (#4 ACC, TFL/game). LUA-VUH is good enough to create some negative plays but we don’t see Miami having much trouble moving the football in this contest as they’ve put up well over 500Y of offense vs decent teams like Florida, Virginia Tech, and California.
Louisville offense vs Miami defense
The Cardinals have a done a good job on offense but have been a bit inconsistent. They rank #60 in the country in rushing offense but note that they’ve found something good in RB Isaac Brown who’s averaging 8.6 (!) YPC whilst leading the team on the ground. QB Tyler Shough isn’t gonna kill you with his legs (one game with a rush over 10 yards) but he’s shifty and can get the ball down the field (14-3 TD to INT; 9.1 YPA). WR Ja’Corey Brooks is gonna be handful for the Miami secondary and note that the Canes have given up a number of yuuuge plays in the THROW GAME in their L2G. One area of concern is the LUA-VUH pass blocking as they’ve allowed 8 sacks in the L3G after yielding just one in their first three contests. Miami has one of the most talented DLs in the ACC and they’re close to full health with the return of elite disrupter Rueben Bain. The Cardinals are going to have some success in this game but it’s tough the see them keeping up with Miami as they’ve only tallied 408/461/395/326 total yards after destroying Austin Peay and Jacksonville St to open the campaign. The Canes haven’t allowed anyone to exceed the 400Y barrier as of yet.
Trends, Intangibles, and More!
Miami comes into this BAD BOY fresh off a bye week and they haven’t been this healthy since the first snap of the season vs Florida (W 41-17)…..It’s not easy to win at LUA-VUH but CROWD WILL BE ROCKING GUY should remember how the Canes obliterated the Gators in THE SWAMP back in week one…..If they lose to the Cardinals, they’ll get beaten on the field and not by the crowd noise…..Miami lost to Louisville LY at home 38-31 in a very entertaining game that featured exceptional play calling from Cards HC Jeff Brohm.
Summary
With the possible exception of Clemson, Miami has the most talented roster in the ACC and this looks like a good spot to resume their quest for a berth in the ACC title game. LUA-VUH hasn’t impressed vs Power 4 competition. They were outgained in a four-point win over Virginia last week, lost to SMU at home, and were lucky to beat Georgia Tech at home (outgained 410-326). They played an excellent game at Notre Dame, but then again, Northern Illinois took care of the Irish in South Bend.
Conclusion
Official pick – Miami -5 -106
Sent 4:38pm Oct 18
-5 is consensus. -4.5 is available.
‘Official play’ means that this is one of our favorite plays of the week (perceived value, match-up, coaching, trends, etc.). We’re currently investing 25% more on these plays vs our ‘leans’. We’ll normally have two or three of these choices per week.
‘Lean’ means that we’re placing a standard size wager on the game. We’ll normally have about ten of these plays per week. Many members prefer to pick and choose amongst these games when finalizing their weekly investment cards so we’ll continue to refer to them as ‘leans’.
‘No leanage’ means that we won’t have any action on the game.
Team totals – We’ll list the implied number based on the point spread and total when our analysis is posted. If a team total ends up being an ‘official play’ we’ll post a widely available number at the time of pick release.