Week 8 QUICK TAKES – College Football Predictions
Here are some QUICK TAKES on the games that did not make the cut for a longer write-up this week.
Let’s go!
All done for the week! Enjoy the games and have a great weekend.
Handy index: Quick Takes
‘Official’ picks in blue. ‘Leans’ in green. Waiting on a number or information to make a potential play in orange.
- Troy at South Alabama (Tuesday)
- Kennesaw St at MTSU (Tuesday)
- TCU at Utah
- Ball St at Vanderbilt
- Oregon at Purdue
- Tulsa at Temple
- UCLA at Rutgers
- NC State at California
- Louisiana Tech at New Mexico St (Tuesday)
- FIU at UTEP (Wednesday)
- Oklahoma St at BYU (Friday)
- East Carolina at Army
- Central Michigan at Eastern Michigan
- Hawaii at Washington St
- UAB at USF
- Arkansas St at Southern Miss
- SMU at Stanford
- Georgia St at Marshall (Thursday)
- Boston College at Virginia Tech (Thursday)
- Rice at Tulane
- Fresno St at Nevada
- UCF at Iowa St
- Notre Dame vs Georgia Tech
- Michigan at Illinois
- Wyoming at San Jose St
- UNLV at Oregon St
- Kansas St at West Virginia
- New Mexico at Utah St
- Kent St at Bowling Green
- Charlotte at Navy
- WKU at Sam Houston (Wednesday)
- Wake Forest at UConn
- Florida St at Duke (Friday)
- CORN at Indiana
- Western Michigan at Buffalo
- Houston vs Kansas (Arrowhead Stadium)
- Texas A&M at Mississippi St
- Kentucky at Florida
- Louisiana at Coastal Carolina
- Texas St at Old Dominion
- South Carolina at Oklahoma
- Ohio at Miami Ohio
- USC at Maryland
- Toledo at Northern Illinois
- North Texas at Memphis
- Virginia at Clemson
- Iowa at Michigan St
- FAU at UTSA
- Colorado at Arizona
- Wisconsin at Northwestern
- James Madison at Georgia Southern
- Auburn at Missouri
- Arizona St at Cincinnati
- LSU at WOO PIG
- Baylor at Texas Tech
- Colorado St at Air Force
- Georgia at Texas
QUICK TAKES
1. South Alabama -12 Troy (56.5)…………MEGALOCKS line – South Alabama -12
Vegas Implied Score – South Alabama 34.25 Troy 22.25
It’s the BATTLE FOR THE BELT on Tuesday night as Troy travels to Mobile to battle the Jaguars…..The Trojans have owned the series as of late (won and covered six straight) but as SEASON WIN TOTAL CLUB is happy to report, Troy has been struggling mightily and their only win so far came vs FCS scrub Florida A&M….The offense is ranked in the bottom 30 in the country and the defense is rated in the 90 range….The Jaguars have one of the best Group of Five QBs in Gio Lopez (12-1 TD to INT, 258 rush) and they can also run the ball very well….South Alabama’s defense is ranked in the 120s (!) so it’s not like they don’t have holes…..Underrated rivalry game that makes us want to take the points but +14 is potentially our “go price” and we highly doubt it gets there.
No leanage
2. MSTU -10 Kennesaw St (51)…………MEGALOCKS line – MTSU -10.5
Vegas Implied Score – MTSU 30.5 Kennesaw St 20.5
Kennesaw St is the worst team in the FBS but at least they had their best rushing game BY FAR last game vs Jacksonville St…..Too bad they turned the ball over four times and got destroyed….but baby steps we suppose….and they’re coming off their 2nd bye week so if nothing else they’ll be fresh…..Our ratings suggest that the favorite is decently priced but the Blue Raiders are HOT TRASH and rank near the bottom of most major statistical categories other than passing offense….and even in that case, QB Nick Vattiato has a disappointing 7-5 TD to INT ratio….MTSU is allowing well over a 50% conversion rate (!) on 3rd downs…..MTSU has the more talented roster but is that enough to get the cover?
No leanage
3. Utah -6.5 TCU (51.5) …………MEGALOCKS line – Utah -7.5
Vegas Implied Score – Utah 29 TCU 22.5
The Utes are not themselves on defense and the Cam Rising CHRONICLES have taken a weird turn as its gone from “Will he play?” and “Did he really accidentally cut off his leg with a butter knife, and if so, will he play this week?” to “Does he stink?”…..To be fair he got banged up early in the loss to Arizona St but we are not playing Utah games for the foreseeable future….The good news is that TCU is close to GARBAGE but maybe they play better off a bye week?
No leanage
UPDATE – Cam Rising out for the year. Isaac Wilson returns as the starter.
4. Vanderbilt -26.5 Ball St (58.5)…………MEGALOCKS line – Vanderbilt -27.5
Vegas Implied Score – Vanderbilt 42.5 Ball St 16
WHOA, NELLIE!……The Commodores didn’t have a letdown after beating ROLL TIDE and they rolled into Lexington and took down Kentucky……Even SEASON WIN TOTAL CLUB didn’t think Vanderbilt would be this good!….We should get a 100% effort from them as they’re really close to achieving a bowl bid which seemed impossible before the season….This would be win #5….Ball St has an absolutely disgusting defense but they can SCORE the FOOTBALL…..Fav or pass, we’ll take a seat for now….Could easily see this spread hit -28.
No leanage
5. Oregon -27 Purdue (58.5)…………MEGALOCKS line – Oregon -25
Vegas Implied Score – Oregon 42.75 Purdue 15.75
The Ducks are coming off a yuuuge win over Ohio St and they’re clearly one of the best teams in the country as we approach press time…..Now they’ve gotta travel to the GREAT STATE OF INDIANA to battle a Purdue team that finally showed some life behind new starting QB Ryan Browne in their 50-49 (!) OT loss vs Illinois in their last outing…..Tough call at this price point.
No leanage
6. Temple -2.5 Tulsa (52.5)…………MEGALOCKS line – Tulsa -1.5
Vegas Implied Score – Temple 27.5 Tulsa 25
Both of these teams are absolute ABOMINATIONS and whilst we believe Tulsa should probably be a small favorite in this game there’s no way we can back the Golden Hurricane after getting outscored 101-27 in their L2G.
No leanage
7. Rutgers -6.5 UCLA (40.5)…………MEGALOCKS line – Rutgers -7.5
Vegas Implied Score – Rutgers 23.5 UCLA 17
WHAT the WHAT?….Rutgers just got absolutely CURB STOMPED by Wisconsin (L 42-7) and whilst we knew that their run defense would cost them at some point we didn’t think it would show up that way vs the Badgers….That’s two poor games in a row for Rutgers and the injuries are piling up…..UCLA lost in the dying seconds to Minnesota and now have to travel all the way to New Jersey….We like the Bruins’ defense but the QB play is a bit sketchy.
No leanage
8. California -10 NC State (46.5)…………MEGALOCKS line – California -8.5
Vegas Implied Score – California 28.25 NC State 18.25
The Golden Bears are clearly the better team but they’re on quite the travel schedule…..Home to Miami (lost a thriller), travel out to Pitt (lost by two points), and now they’ve gotta fly all the way back to the communist enclave of Berkeley, California to battle a struggling but feisty NC State squad…..Both teams struggling for their bowl eligibility lives…..Cal is 9-14-1 ATS as a home favorite….Prefer the dog just a wee bit but can we trust the Pack?…..Passing for now.
No leanage
9. Louisiana Tech -10.5 New Mexico St (50.5)…………MEGALOCKS line – Louisiana Tech -10
Vegas Implied Score – Louisiana Tech 30.5 New Mexico St 20
The Bulldogs may have transformed right before our eyes into a much better squad given the move to Evan Bullock at QB (6-0 TD to INT) and they already had a really good run defense (#14 FBS, 93 YPG)….New Mexico St has quickly morphed into PURE FILTH with a pathetic run defense (#130, 250 YPG) and awful QB play….The line looks about right but we still think the Bulldogs are worth a look if the line comes back to a flat -10.
Holding pattern – Waiting for -10 for potential action.
UPDATE TUESDAY 5pm – no play. The FORCE is strong with this one. Line up to -11.5/-12.
10. FIU -6.5 UTEP (49)…………MEGALOCKS line – FIU -6.5
Vegas Implied Score – FIU 27.75 UTEP 21.21
It’s been documented regularly on these fine pages that once or twice a week we get ready to post a pick of some kind and then BOOM…….The MOBSTERS hit the side we were looking at and the line pops before we have a chance to recommend a pick at a certain number……in this case UTEP -5.5…..We like the Panthers in this affair as they could easily be 4-2….they’ve obviously got some warts but they defend the pass very well and boast an advantage at QB and HC….UTEP is a GREASE FIRE (0-6) with seemingly no answer at QB and a bad defense….They’ve scored 7/10/17/21/17 vs FBS foes…..Would lay up to -6 so we’ll have to see if the market comes back a wee bit….If not, so be it.
Holding pattern – Waiting for -6 for potential action.
UPDATE 4:45 pm Wednesday. It’s -7 consensus with a few -6.5s out there. We’ll take a pass.
11. BYU -10 Oklahoma St (55.5)…………MEGALOCKS line – BYU -8.5
Vegas Implied Score – BYU 32.75 Oklahoma St 22.75
The mighty BYU Cougars are playing solid football and they’re on top of the Big 12 standings (!) with a conference record of 3-0 along with Iowa St and Texas Tech….Oklahoma St is playing as bad as we’ve seen in many years but we just can’t lay double digits.
No leanage
12. Army -15.5 East Carolina (51.5)…………MEGALOCKS line – Army -14
Vegas Implied Score – Army 33.5 East Carolina 18
Army has the longest winning streak in the nation (!) at 10 games and they’ve been destroying the opposition all season…..We can’t fade the Black Knights but the spread is too high to back them in this tilt……..The ARRRRRRRRRRRRRR Pirates can stay in the game if they don’t turn the ball over but sadly they lead the country in turnovers with 18.
No leanage
13. Eastern Michigan -2 Central Michigan (56)…………MEGALOCKS line – Pick ’em
Vegas Implied Score – Eastern Michigan 29 Central Michigan 27
Eastern Michigan just got blasted by Miami Ohio which came as no surprise to our TOP SECRET MAC INSIDERS and they’re a more trustworthy team than FIRE UP CHIPS…..Central Michigan has played in three nail biters in a row…..won by 3, won by 1, lost by 2….We don’t expect anything less in this contest which appears to be a coin flip…Note that the Chippewas have won 10L12 SU in the series……Nasty rivalry game that’ll almost certainly go down to the wire.
No leanage
14. Washington St -19.5 Hawaii (55.5)…………MEGALOCKS line – Washington St -18
Vegas Implied Score – Washington St 37.5 Hawaii 18
We like the COOGS to win the game comfortably but as far as the point spread is concerned….Hawaii can play a bit of defense and Washington St has the #120 stop unit in the country in terms of total yards (Hawaii #40)…..The “go price” on Washington St is -17 and it’s +21.5 on Hawaii and here we are.
No leanage
15. USF -13.5 UAB (57.5)…………MEGALOCKS line – USF -14
Vegas Implied Score – USF 35.5 UAB 22
This is probably the easiest game to pass on the board as USF has failed to meet expectations to say the least whilst UAB has been PURE FILTH….Both teams might be without their starting QBs for this game.
No leanage
16. Arkansas St -6.5 Southern Miss (55)…………MEGALOCKS line – Arkansas St -7.5
Vegas Implied Score – Arkansas St 30.75 Southern Miss 24.24
Arkansas St has the better roster but QB Jaylen Raynor has been a disappointment and whilst he’s still a very talented specimen with an NFL-caliber WR to throw to in Corey Rucker, the Red Wolves are just #101 in total offense…..It should be noted however that Arkansas St has played the toughest schedule in the Sun Belt according to the Sagarin ratings and you only need to view their road opponents to understand the ranking (at Michigan, at Iowa St, at Texas St)…..Southern Miss is DUMPSTER JUICE (#124 offense, #110 defense, #133 3rd down offense, #126 3rd down defense) and our only concern is how Arkansas St continues to play poorly on the road compared to at home (3-18 SU away under HC Butch Jones)……..Prefer Arkansas St but need to ponder this one for a bit longer….Will not play it at -7 and if it moves there, so be it.
Holding pattern – Need to mull it over and potentially consider seeing a psychiatrist. Why would anyone spend so much time handicapping Arkansas St vs Southern Miss?
UPDATE – no play
17. SMU -14.5 Stanford (54.5)…………MEGALOCKS line – SMU -13.5
Vegas Implied Score – SMU 34.5 Stanford 20
We could only look at the favorite in this matchup as the Mustangs are playing their best football right now and are one of four teams atop the ACC standings that are undefeated in conference play….Stanford has only scored 28 total points in their L3G and they need a drop in class as this will be their 4th tough opponent in a row…..Line looks about right.
No leanage
18. Marshall -9 Georgia St (52)…………MEGALOCKS line – Marshall -9
Vegas Implied Score – Marshall 30.5 Georgia St 21.5
YIKES…..Just a week after the Herd booked a yuuuge Sun Belt win over Appalachian St they decided to blow a 23-3 lead vs Georgia Southern…..The ROTATING QB SYSTEM claims another victim and until they choose one guy to do the work it’s gonna be tough to back Marshall….especially laying double digits…..and their D is nothing special….Georgia St hasn’t show much at all and after two (!) bye weeks and four straight home games they’ve gotta play five of their next six games ON THE HIGHWAY….We’d lay -7 with Marshall but no more and here we are.
No leanage
19. Virginia Tech -6.5 Boston College (49)…………MEGALOCKS line – Virginia Tech -8
Vegas Implied Score – Virginia Tech 27.75 Boston College 21.25
Yes, guy.
This is a fine Thursday night ACC matchup and Virginia Tech played their two best games of the season right before the bye week and note that their OT loss to Vanderbilt doesn’t look nearly as bad as it did back in August (!)….QB Kyron Drones is playing better and the Hokies have a loaded WR room and one of the best RBs in the ACC in Bhayshul Tuten…..VT still has all their goals ahead of them with their toughest game behind them……On the other hand BC’s best football came early in the year and QB Thomas Castellanos hasn’t been the same since he got dinged up……VT won this game 48-22 LY running the same offense although BC has a better defense this year and the Hokies haven’t been as stout on defense as we’d hoped…..BC has only played one team that can run the ball (Missouri) and the Tigers rushed for 176 yards whilst outgaining BC to the tune of 440-298….BC has only put up 300Y of offense in one (!) game over the L4 (319 vs Virginia) and we don’t think they’ll be able to keep up on this one….Let’s hope VT starts quick and extends the lead because your boy Brent Pry is just 1-10 SU in one-score games as HC of the Hokies.
Lean – Virginia Tech -6.5
Posted 11:07am Oct 15
-6.5 is listed virtually everywhere.
20. Tulane -22.5 Rice (53.5)…………MEGALOCKS line – Tulane -20
Vegas Implied Score – Tulane 38 Rice 15.5
The Owls are starting to play better football and they’re coming off a dramatic last second win over UTSA…..The spread looks a bit rich but we are NOT fading Tulane until they stop playing like a spread-covering JUGGERNAUT.
No leanage
21. Fresno St -2.5 Nevada (50.5)…………MEGALOCKS line – Fresno St -1
Vegas Implied Score – Fresno St 26.5 Nevada 24
Nevada is one of the best under-the-radar stories of the college football season as they were supposed to be in a major rebuilding mode but they’ve won three games and could easily have a couple more victories…..Fresno St is one of the dozen or so teams that we have no feel on this season as they’ve been very unpredictable…..Not gonna play this BAD BOY in terms of the spread or total but Nevada is on the short list for inclusion in our AWARD WINNNG ML UNDERDOG selections on Friday.
No leanage
22. Iowa St -13.5 UCF (48.5)…………MEGALOCKS line – Iowa St -11
Vegas Implied Score – Iowa St 31 UCF 17.5
Our boys from Ames continue to play excellent football and they’ve done nothing wrong all year….They’re undefeated and tied atop the Big 12 standings with BYU (!) and Texas Tech (!)….We could only look their way in this game but that’s a lot of points and Iowa St has shown just a wee bit of a SOFT UNDERBELLY vs the run at times….Also note that UCF has a new starting QB in Jacurri Brown from YOUR Miami Hurricanes and he did some good work vs Cincinnati last week.
No leanage
23. Notre Dame -11.5 Georgia Tech (49)…………MEGALOCKS line – Notre Dame -10.5
Vegas Implied Score – Notre Dame 30.25 Georgia Tech 18.75
WHOA, NELLIE…..Just when you thought Notre Dame was dead and buried after losing to a MAC team they’re right back in the thick of the CFP chase and playing much better football, particularly at the QB position with Riley Leonard…..Losing star CB Benjamin Morrison will hurt long term but not for this game….The spread has been JACKED UP after the news that Georgia Tech QB Haynes King may not play in this one (listed as ‘questionable’) especially since you could argue that his two best games came in the Yellow Jackets’ F3G…..Backup QB Zach Pyron is an underrated specimen and HC Brent Key is 11-4 ATS as a dog….Note that this game is being played at Mercedes-Benz Stadium.
No leanage
24. Michigan -3 Illinois (43.5)…………MEGALOCKS line – Michigan -5
Vegas Implied Score – Michigan 23.5 Illinois 20.25
There’s no need to overthink this one as Illinois has allowed 239/239 L2G on the ground vs Purdue (!) and Penn St and we know that’s a problem when facing Michigan….The Wolverines will be going with Jack Tuttle at QB and that’s a good thing since at least that gives them the threat of the forward pass.
Lean – Michigan -3 -115
Posted 3:56pm Oct 15
-3 -115 is the consensus line. You can still find -3 -110 if you shop around.
25. San Jose St -11.5 Wyoming (50.5)…………MEGALOCKS line – San Jose St -13
Vegas Implied Score – San Jose St 31 Wyoming 19.5
We prefer the favorite in this spot but the Spartans are having serious issues running the football (#126) and stopping the run (#92) and whilst Wyoming is completely DISGUSTING those are the kind of stats that make us take pause in terms of backing a double-digit favorite.
No leanage
26. UNLV -7.5 Oregon St (61.5)…………MEGALOCKS line – UNLV -6
Vegas Implied Score – UNLV 34.5 Oregon St 27
We side with the JUGGERNAUT UNLV Rebels if forced to make a choice but this is a steep tariff if you want to back the road team……It’s never easy to win in Corvallis and note that UNLV has their SEASON ON THE LINE next week when they face Boise St.
No leanage
27. Kansas St -3 West Virginia (55)…………MEGALOCKS line – Kansas St -3
Vegas Implied Score – Kansas St 29 West Virginia 26
We’re not yuuuge fans of either of these squads in terms of winning the Big 12 and the line appears to be DEAD ON BALLS ACCURATE ** as we approach press time…..This is essentially an elimination game as both teams have one conference loss and there are three teams with undefeated Big 12 records……Kansas St is coming off a dramatic win over Colorado on the road….West Virginia SHAT THE BED last week at home vs Iowa St in what could have been a massive win for the program.
** an industry term
No leanage
28. New Mexico -2 Utah St (78)…………MEGALOCKS line – Pick ’em
Vegas Implied Score – New Mexico 40 Utah St 38.
You know we love ourselves some SWEET NEW MEXICO LOBOS ACTION but we’ll have to take a pass this week as the oddsmakers appear to have caught up with how good they are…..or well at least the stark reality of the quality of their offense which is DEVASTATING behind QB Devon Dampier….Utah St never quit last week and threw for a billion yards vs UNLV **…The total is just too high for our tastes but we’ll be WAITING IN THE WEEDS with our in-game wagering app and hope that there’s an early score so we can go ‘under’ a number in the 80s ^^.
** Fact check: Close to the actual stats. Also, wear a mask you dumb sheep and get that 18th DEATH BOOSTER to protect you from the latest “COVID” “variant”. And why are all my 20-year old friends dropping dead from strokes and heart attacks? Weird. It’s almost like they took a deadly experimental gene therapy back in 2021 because Grover or Big Bird told them to do it on Sesame Street.
^^ Note to SHERLOCK HOLMES GUY – If you want to track this recommendation feel free to create a spreadsheet. Maybe even access our website archives back to 2001 and see how awesome we are.
No leanage
29. Bowling Green -20.5 Kent St (55.5)…………MEGALOCKS line – Bowling Green -19
Vegas Implied Score – Bowling Green 38 Kent St 17.5
Bowling Green is in a must-win situation after losing to Northern Illinois last week (a 900 star MEGALOCKS Super Lock of the Decade winner) but they should have no problem disposing of Kent St even tho our boy QB Tommy TD Ulatowski has played very well since returning to the starting gig.
No leanage
30. Navy -17 Charlotte (55)…………MEGALOCKS line – Navy -15
Vegas Implied Score – Navy 36 Charlotte 19
SEASON WIN TOTAL club is frothing at the mouth awaiting Navy to get their 6th win which was deemed impossible by everyone on the planet other than our DEEP NAVY INSIDERS but this spread feels a bit high given the improved football that we’ve seen from Charlotte recently and they are somehow someway back in the conversation for a bowl bid….That was their goal before the season started.
No leanage
31. Sam Houston -2.5 WKU (55.5)…………MEGALOCKS line – Sam Houston -1
Vegas Implied Score – Sam Houston 29 WKU 26.5
It’s a clash of two of the four TITANS in CUSA who’ve yet to lose a conference game!….Tough game to call as both teams are on our “buy list” at the halfway point of the 2024 campaign….Sam Houston has showcased a devastating rushing attack (229 YPG, #11 FBS) whilst WKU is starting to cook with the THROW GAME (#28)…….WKU has been decent on defense since allowing 63 in week one to ROLL TIDE (0/21/21/21/17 points allowed) whilst Sam Houston’s stop unit has performed very well when not facing offensive JUGGERNAUTS like UCF and Texas St (14/13/11/21 points allowed)…..Feels like a coin toss so those that got the WKU +3 probably made a good choice but you never know in these midweek CUSA games!….Great game to sit back and enjoy and maybe partake in some SWEET IN-GAME ACTION.
No leanage
32. UConn -1 Wake Forest (57.5)…………MEGALOCKS line – Wake Forest -2.5
Vegas Implied Score – Connecticut 29.25 Wake Forest 28.25
We are humiliated and somewhat disgusted in ourselves that we have to go against OUR Connecticut Huskies in this game but that’s what it’s come to unfortunately….UConn has played the #133 (!) schedule according to the Sagarin ratings (WF #42) and their wins have come against FAU, Buffalo, Temple (goal line stand to win on final play, fumble return TD), and something known as Merrimack……Despite playing that easy schedule they’re #68 in passing, #74 in run D, #97 in turnover margin, and #93 in 3rd down conversions….Wake Forest’s defense is HOT TRASH but they’ve played a tough slate of offenses including Ole Miss, the Cajuns, and Clemson…..They’ve got serious weaponry at WR and one of the most exciting RBs in the ACC in Demond Claiborne, not to mention an experienced QB in Hank Bachmeier…..Big game for Connecticut at home vs a Power 4 opponent but as crazy as it sounds Wake Forest can play the “nobody respects us” card as they are an underdog in the game……Well at least that’s the way it stands as we approach press time.
Lean – Wake Forest +1
Posted 9:53am Oct 16
+1 in the consensus. +1.5 is still available at a small handful of shops.
33. Duke -3 Florida St (42.5)…………MEGALOCKS line – Duke -4
Vegas Implied Score – Duke 22.75 Florida St 19.75
We’ve got a preference to the DUKIES who’ve only lost one game all year (5-1) but they’ve had a lot of trouble SCORING the FOOTBALL vs Power 4 opposition (14,21, and 26 in 2 OT)….Florida St’s offense has been total garbage but the defense is coming around and they’ve booked 11 sacks in their L3G…..The intrepid Phil Steele reminds us that Duke is 0-22 SU vs Florida St and just 6-15-1 ATS…..We’re also a bit tempted by the ‘under’ but that’s a low total, yo…..44 feels like a number we could live with but here we are.
No leanage
34. Indiana -6.5 CORN (50.5)…………MEGALOCKS line – Indiana -5.5
Vegas Implied Score – Indiana 28.5 CORN 22
SEASON WIN TOTAL CLUB has already booked a winner with the JUGGERNAUT Hoosiers (6-0) but this will be their toughest and most physical game of the campaign to date….It’s impossible to complain about outscoring your opposition by a margin of 285-89 (!) but the Huskers have also done a good job (168-68) whilst spurting out to a mark of 5-1…..Note that Indiana is one of just three teams that are undefeated in Big Ten play (Penn St, Oregon)…..CORN HC Matt Rhule is 20-10 ATS as a road underdog (2-2 ATS with the Huskers)…..Tricky call at this price point…..Try and hold out for a +7 if you like the dog.
No leanage
35. Western Michigan -1 Buffalo (48.5)…………MEGALOCKS line – Buffalo -1
Vegas Implied Score – Western Michigan 24.75 Buffalo 23.75
Two of the three teams tied atop the MAC standings are going head to head on Saturday afternoon in Buffalo!….This is the ultimate contrast in team strengths and weaknesses as Buffalo’s offense is horrible (#131 FBS) whilst their defense is stout (#2 MAC YPP defense)…..Meanwhile, Western Michigan can play a bit of offense (#45 FBS rushing, #2 MAC YPP) but they can’t stop anyone (#118 total defense)…..50/50 ball up for grabs and we’ll see who comes down with it, yo.
No leanage
36. Kansas -5.5 Houston (47.5)…………MEGALOCKS line – Kansas -5
Vegas Implied Score – Kansas 26.5 Houston 21
The spread looks about right and note that the game is being played at Arrowhead Stadium (more of a neutral site feel)…..The Jayhawks are in the midst of a five-game (!) losing skid and the schedule that lies ahead is brutal so if Kansas wants to make a bowl game this is a ‘must win’ event…..Houston has had trouble moving the football but their defense is LEGIT….Also note that the last time we saw Houston they were smoking TCU on the road under new starting QB Zeon Chriss….How will he fare in this game now that Kansas has the benefit of seeing more of him on tape?
No leanage
37. Texas A&M -15.5 Houston (56)…………MEGALOCKS line – Texas A&M -16.5
Vegas Implied Score – Texas A&M 35.75 Mississippi St 20.25
Texas A&M leads the SEC with a conference record of 3-0 and they’ve got a presumed layup this week before heading back home for a yuuuge battle with LSU……The Aggies looked great last time out in their blowout win over Missouri and they’ve had a week off….If the Conner Weigman we saw at QB in that game is the REAL Conner Weigman than Mississippi St could be in a world of hurt…..On the other hand, Mississippi St just gave Georgia (!) at battle for four quarters in Athens and appear to be gaining confidence….Tough game to invest in at this price point.
No leanage
38. Kentucky -1.5 Florida (42.5)…………MEGALOCKS line – Pick ’em
Vegas Implied Score – Kentucky 22 Florida 20.5
The Gators are playing some inspired defense lately as they allowed just 273 yards to UCF (4.40 YPP) and 312 yards to Tennessee (4.52 YPP) in last week’s gut-wrenching road OT loss…..Starting QB Graham Mertz is out for the season due to injury and it’ll be interesting to see what young phenom DJ Lagway can do at QB given that this is his team now and he’s definitely shown some flashes of brilliance….He provides more upside than Mertz but his inexperience will lead to inevitable mistakes…..Florida has a really good set of WRs and Kentucky’s only weakness on D is the secondary (#96 pass efficiency D)……Would take either team catching +3 but sadly here we are.
No leanage
39. Louisiana -4.5 Coastal Carolina (56.5)…………MEGALOCKS line – Loujsiana -3
Vegas Implied Score – Louisiana 30.5 Coastal Carolina 26
Louisiana is our preferred side in this affair as we think they’re the more complete team and they most certainly have the better defense (#22 total defense vs #99)…….Coastal Carolina has allowed 39/37/43 L3G…..The problem were facing is that the line is a bit too high in our estimation and the Chanticleers need this game more than the Cajuns….Losing another Sun Belt game would pretty much kill their Sun Belt hopes.
No leanage
40. Texas St -10 Old Dominion (61.5)…………MEGALOCKS line – Texas St -8.5
Vegas Implied Score – Texas St 35.75 Old Dominion 25.75
We’d love to back the scrappy Monarchs in this spot but after being skeptical about the quality of this Texas St team after losses to Arizona St and Sam Houston we think they might be hitting their stride….Last week’s blowout win over Arkansas St (W 41-9) was probably their best game since the early season blowout win over UTSA…..They’re a tough fade right now even at double digits.
No leanage
41. Oklahoma -1.5 South Carolina (41.5)…………MEGALOCKS line – Pick ’em
Vegas Implied Score – Oklahoma 21.5 South Carolina 20
It’s a battle of two teams that struggle on offense (Oklahoma #126 total offense, SC #92) whilst playing solid defense (Oklahoma #48, SC #20)….The COCKS are the better team in our estimation particularly considering the injuries that Oklahoma is dealing with at WR, and new Oklahoma starting QB Michael Hawkins is really struggling with the THROW GAME….South Cackalacky is coming off a pair of games where they left it all on the field including last week’s heartbreaking loss at ROLL TIDE (L 27-25)…..Oklahoma just got smoked by Texas…..The Sooners found a way to slither past Tulane, Houston, and Auburn but only one of those wins featured Hawkins at QB….Taking a pass on the side and the total is too low to go ‘under’….Having said that, SC is on the short list for ML underdog action on Friday. Stay tuned!
No leanage
42. Miami Ohio -3.5 Ohio (44)…………MEGALOCKS line – Miami Ohio -3.5
Vegas Implied Score – Miami Ohio 23.75 Ohio 20.25
These are two of the best teams in the MAC and they’re both in the hunt for the title game…..Miami Ohio wants to defend their belt but they can ill afford to drop a 2nd conference tilt….They played their best game of the season last week vs Eastern Michigan (W 38-14) but this is gonna be a much tougher challenge….Ohio (2-0 in MAC play) has been dominating on the ground the L2G with the combo of QB Parker Navarro (!) (two consecutive 100-yard games) and stud RB Anthony Tyus (595, 4 TD)….Ohio also has a legit #1 WR in Coleman Owen (514, 14.3)…..Ohio has been turnover prone (-7, last MAC) but their defense has played a bit better than the Redhawks’ stop unit in our opinion…..Miami has played the tougher schedule…..It’s never easy to knock off the champ but Ohio has the team that can do it……Ohio is 13-4 L17 SU vs the Redhawks……We’ll keep an eye on the line over the next day and a half and see if we can scoop a +4….Bobcats are yet another contender for ML Underdog status on Friday.
Holding pattern – Watching for a +4 for potential action.
UPDATE – no play
43. USC -7.5 Maryland (56.5)…………MEGALOCKS line – USC -9.5
Vegas Implied Score – USC 32 Maryland 24.5
Not a game we’re interested in from an investment standpoint as the Trojans’ season is essentially DONE LIKE DINNER after losing their 3rd Big Ten game last week in agonizing fashion……They’re much better than Maryland but the last two times USC had to fly out to traditional Big Ten country it didn’t go well…..They fell to a Michigan squad with no passing attack and a mediocre Minnesota team (with no passing attack)…..At least Maryland can throw the football reasonably effectively and recall that Penn St just lit up USC for approximately 89,000 ** passing yards.
** Fact check: Close to the truth.
No leanage
44. Northern Illinois -3 Toledo (43)…………MEGALOCKS line – Northern Illinois -3.5
Vegas Implied Score – Northern Illinois 23 Toledo 20
This is a another yuuuuge game in the MAC as both squads have conference loss ** and the loser is probably eliminated from MAC title contention…..although you never know in this KOOKY neck of the woods….We have the Huskies rated slightly higher in our power ratings but the fact remains that the offense is really struggling to do much of anything…..4.03 YPP in two MAC games (!) so far…..They’ve only exceeded 20 points vs UMass and something referred to as Western Illinois…..On the other hand, Toledo might be going with their backup QB (who’s looked fine in limited action) but their yuuuge issue is a lack of rushing attack…46/78/125 yards L3G….The Rockets have the best WR combo in the conference but it’s hard to back a one-dimensional team in a big game like this…..Note however that the road team has covered the L5 in the series.
** Yup, Buffalo beat them both. This might be a signal of the END OF DAYS, yo.
No leanage
45. Memphis -12 North Texas (66.5)…………MEGALOCKS line – Memphis -13.5
Vegas Implied Score – Memphis 39.25 North Texas 27.25
We were hoping to see a line of 14+ in order to take a stab with our friends from Denton who can really SCORE the FOOTBALL (41 PPG, #13 FBS) but their defense struggles mightily to get stops (#117)…Memphis isn’t as explosive as they’ve been in recent seasons but their defense is playing lights out (#21)….That makes us REALLY want to get 14+ on the Mean Green…..Note that North Texas has covered each of the L2Y vs Memphis……Both of those games were 900 STAR ULTRA POWER SUPER LOCK winners…..Looks like we’ll have to pass on going for the TRIFECTA.
No leanage
46. Clemson -21 Virginia (57.5)…………MEGALOCKS line – Clemson -18.5
Vegas Implied Score – Clemson 39.25 Virginia 18.25
We finally get a chance to take a stab against mighty Clemson who after getting slaughtered by Georgia have ran the table against a bunch of absolute TURD SANDWICHES and Virginia is the best team they’ve faced since August……Virginia has a balanced offense that has some underrated skill position players and their defense is an average ACC outfit….Feels like too many points and note that Virginia is 3-0 ATS in their L3G as double-digits dogs including one outright upset.
Lean – Virginia +21
Posted 2:56pm Oct 17
+21 is listed virtually everywhere
47. Iowa -5.5 Michigan St (40.5)…………MEGALOCKS line – Iowa -7
Vegas Implied Score – Iowa 23 Michigan St 18.5
We were hoping to get down on some SWEET MICHIGAN ST ACTION at a number of +7 or better but the current market price is quite a bit lower than we expected……..Iowa might be morphing into the Iowa of old as in their L2G they barely cracked the 200Y barrier vs Ohio St and they were outgained by Washington BIGLY last time out (393-328) but somehow won by 24….Michigan St is off a bye and their L2G came vs Ohio St and Oregon….They’ve been mistake prone but we expect a max effort.
No leanage
48. UTSA -6.5 FAU (51.5)…………MEGALOCKS line – UTSA -6
Vegas Implied Score – UTSA 29 FAU 22.5
We spent a lot of time analyzing this game ** and whilst we were very interested in finally attaching ourselves to the UTSA train it’s become readily apparent from WATCHING THE TAPE ^^ that they just aren’t any good….The can’t run the ball, they take too many penalties, and players are dropping like flies…..FAU ‘s QB Cam Fancher, who has struggled this year to say the least, actually looked GOOD vs North Texas last week, and sure it was NORTH TEXAS, but the Owls’ THROW GAME has finally come alive (351/257 yards L2G) and the defense has been solid vs the pass and on 3rd downs….All this is to say that if Cam Fancher was playing (we don’t think he is – turf toe) we’d JUDAS our original take and roll with Florida Atlantic…..Now we’d be asking backup Kasen Weisman to cash the ticket for us….He looked average ON TAPE when we spent time in the WATCH THE TAPE ROOM but you never know.
** Why?
^^ Talking to your buddy about the game is now “watching the tape”. Crazy times, yo.
No leanage
49. Arizona -3 Colorado (58)…………MEGALOCKS line – Arizona -3.5
Vegas Implied Score – Arizona 30.5 Colorado 27.5
We’d be interested in the Buffaloes at a number closer to +6 but here we are….It looks like we’re getting some good injury-related news in regards to some key players on Colorado (Hunter, Horn) but +3 is no bargain to play on the underdog even though Arizona is clearly WHO WE THOUGHT THEY WERE **.
** Not good.
No leanage
50. Wisconsin -7.5 Northwestern (41.5)…………MEGALOCKS line – Wisconsin -8
Vegas Implied Score – Wisconsin 24.5 Northwestern 17
We’ve been waiting patiently for a -6.5 to show up but it just isn’t gonna happen……We love the way that Wisconsin has turned things around the last two weeks but those big wins came vs two of the worst teams in the Big Ten (Purdue, injury-riddled Rutgers)….Northwestern isn’t any gem but they’re a scrappy bunch with a solid defense and mobile QB…..The Cats are 6-2 SU and ATS L8 vs the Badgers.
No leanage
51. James Madison -9.5 Georgia Southern (58.5)…………MEGALOCKS line – James Madison -7.5
Vegas Implied Score – James Madison 34 Georgia Southern 24.5
James Madison is clearly one of the top two teams in the FUN BELT along with Texas St and they’re coming off a PLASTERING of Coastal Carolina…..We think they’ll take care of business but Georgia Southern has looked pretty good for most of the season and they took down a feisty Nevada squad and bagged a crazy comeback win over Marshall last week…They also gave a good effort vs Boise St on this field (lost by 11)…..We’d really like the Dukes at -7 but here we are.
No leanage
52. Missouri -4 Auburn (50)…………MEGALOCKS line – Missouri -3
Vegas Implied Score – Missouri 27 Auburn 23
We’ll roll with the road dog in this one as Auburn has played their best football over the L3G even though the results haven’t been good….They outgained WOO PIG by almost 100Y but turned the ball over five (!) times, they outgained Oklahoma 482-291 and found a way to blow an 11-point lead, and they held Georgia to under 400Y of offense in their last game before the bye week….We think they’ve got the better defense and better offense IF IF IF IF you forget about turnovers (which you probably can’t)….Auburn has turned it over 15 (!!) times which ranks #132 in the nation….Missouri has looked suspect on both sides of the football and their wins have come over (mostly) a collection of turds…..Auburn is 3-0 in SEC play vs Missouri.
Lean – Auburn +4
Posted 9:00am Oct 18
+4 is the clear consensus. A few +3.5s have popped up.
53. Cincinnati -4.5 Arizona St (50.5)…………MEGALOCKS line – Cincinnati -6
Vegas Implied Score – Cincinnati 27.5 Arizona 23
We try to avoid games with “surprise” backup QB situations but we can’t help but downgrade Arizona St’s chances in this game given the injury to starting QB Sam Leavitt who we’ve been very impressed with this season…..We’re probably higher than market in terms of our belief in Leavitt but he’s a legit dual-threat dood that’s shown great leadership so far….Enter JEFF SIMS….the WALKING and TALKING turnover machine who’s been in college football since the Reagan administration **….Thankfully, Arizona St still has a sound defense and star RB but traveling from Arizona after beating Utah….with Jeff Sims at the controls seems like a tough spot…..Just not sure we wanna lay more than 4 points…..Also note that Cincinnati’s defense hasn’t been anything special and QB B Sorsby didn’t look great vs a bad UCF defense last week….Is his thumb bothering him?….Think the Bearcats GIT R DONE but gonna mull it over on Friday and see if we can convince ourselves to jump in the pool.
** needs fact check
Holding pattern – Doing a bit more digging on Cincinnati.
UPDATE – no play
54. LSU -2.5 WOO PIG (56.5)…………MEGALOCKS line – LSU -3
Vegas Implied Score – LSU 29.5 WOO PIG 27
Arkansas rolls into this one off a bye week and the last time we saw them they gave Tennessee a taste of some WOO PIG MAGIC in a 19-14 comeback victory….LSU has won five in a row after their opening week loss to USC and they slithered past Ole Miss in OT last week….The spot greatly favors WOO PIG but we still believe that LSU is the more talented team with the better QB…..Each of the L4 meetings have been decided by a FG……The intrepid Phil Steele notes that Razorbacks head coach Sam Pittman is 8-1 ATS vs ranked teams.
No leanage
55. Texas Tech -6 Baylor (55)…………MEGALOCKS line – Texas Tech -7
Vegas Implied Score – Texas Tech 30.5 Baylor 24.5
We’re tempted to back the Red Raiders as they’re one of three teams tied atop the Big 12 standings and they’re getting healthier by the week….It should be noted however that all three of their Big 12 wins have come by one score vs teams in the same talent area code as Baylor (Arizona, Arizona St, Cincinnati)…..Baylor might be better than we think (2-4) as they lost heartbreakers to Colorado (A) and BYU (H)…..Road team has covered 4L5 meetings.
No leanage
56. Colorado St -7 Air Force (44.5)…………MEGALOCKS line – Colorado St -6
Vegas Implied Score – Colorado St 25.75 Air Force 18.75
The Falcons are an impossible 0-6 (!) ATS this season but they showed yuuuge improvement last week after they decided to officially switch to a functional QB….Quentin Hayes rushed for 103 yards and threw for 79 vs New Mexico last week and the Falcons rushed for 325 yards….They actually looked like Air Force…..Their previous 5G rushing totals were 158/205/193/143/166…..Colorado St gave up 251 yards on the ground to Oregon St (5.3 YPC)…..Air Force has won 7 straight vs Colorado St and 14L16…..The Rams lost superstar WR Tory Horton for the year due to injury.
Lean – Air Force +7
Posted 11:20am Oct 18
+7 is listed virtually everywhere
57. Texas -5 Georgia (57)…………MEGALOCKS line – Texas -4
Vegas Implied Score – Texas 31 Georgia 26
You know that we haven’t been impressed the Bulldogs for most of the season to date as they haven’t lived up to their lofty standards on either side of the football…….They’re ranked #10 in the SEC in run defense and have allowed 300 passing yards in 2L3G…..Georgia’s only realistic shot in this game is to have QB Carson Beck go nuts and hope that the defense can make a few timely stops and/or force a turnover or two……Texas has clearly been the best team in the country so far but keep in mind that they’ve played a very weak schedule (however, won by a combined tally of 259-38 !) and the best QB that they’ve faced?…..Maybe GENERAL BOOTY of the ULM Warhawks?…..Might have a play on this game before 5pm but probably not….Spread/total look about right.
No leanage
‘Official play’ means that this is one of our favorite plays of the week (perceived value, match-up, coaching, trends, etc.). We’re currently investing 25% more on these plays vs our ‘leans’. We’ll normally have two or three of these choices per week.
‘Lean’ means that we’re placing a standard size wager on the game. We’ll normally have about ten of these plays per week. Many members prefer to pick and choose amongst these games when finalizing their weekly investment cards so we’ll continue to refer to them as ‘leans’.
‘No leanage’ means that we won’t have any action on the game.
Team totals – We’ll list the implied number based on the point spread and total when our analysis is posted. If a team total ends up being an ‘official play’ we’ll post a widely available number at the time of pick release.