Week 9 – BYU at UCF
posted October 24
The Game
We’ve got an intriguing Big 12 matchup down in Orlando on Saturday as the undefeated (!) BYU Cougars battle the struggling UCF Knights. BYU (7-0) is easily one of the best stories in college football as they were predicted to finish near the bottom of the Big 12 by most folks and yet here they are, undefeated and on top of the conference standings along with Iowa St. UCF has lost four consecutive games but they gave Iowa St all they could handle last week on the road and lost in the dying seconds by a score of 38-35. Can the Knights deal the Cougars their first loss of the year?
The Details
UCF -2 BYU (55.5)
MEGALOCKS LINE – UCF -2.5
“Vegas” Implied Projected Score: UCF 28.75 BYU 26.75
UCF offense vs BYU defense
The Knights rank #3 in the FBS in rushing offense (280 YPG) and after struggling for a couple of games on the ground (Colorado, Florida) they’ve sprung back to life behind new starting QB Jacurri Brown ** who provides a devastating rushing threat (154, 84 rush yards L2G). Brown’s rushing ability has opened things up again for star RB RJ Harvey who’s one of the most underappreciated players in the country at his position (890, 6.7, 11 TD). The Knights don’t do much thru the air but Kobe Hudson is a legit #1 dood with great hands (503, 19.3, 3 TD). BYU has been excellent vs the pass (#4 pass efficiency defense) but they’ve displayed a bit of a SOFT UNDERBELLY vs the run which is not great when facing UCF. The Cougars allowed 228 rushing yards to Kansas St and 269 vs Oklahoma St last week.
** formerly of YOUR Miami Hurricanes
BYU offense vs UCF defense
QB Jake Retzlaff has done some good work thru the air (15-7 TD to INT, 59%) and he’s got a pair of dangerous targets at WR in Darius Lassiter and Chase Roberts who’ve both accumulated over 400 receiving yards whilst averaging 15+ YPC. It’s also worth noting that Retzlaff is a very underrated runner, and in fact, he leads the Cougars in rushing yards (265, 5.4 2 TD). #1 RB LJ Martin is back in the lineup and he rushed for over 100 yards in last week’s win over the Cowboys. UCF hasn’t been very good in defending the pass so we expect BYU to have success thru the air. Retzlaff is prone to making the odd errant throw so it’ll be interesting to see if the Knights can pick off a pass or two. The strength of the Knights’ stop unit is stopping the run (#32 FBS) so we like their chances in terms of limiting the BYU ground attack and forcing BYU to win the game thru the air.
Trends, Intangibles, and More!
This is a tough travel spot for the Cougars traveling all the way from Provo and UCF HC Gus Malzahn is 18-6 SU at home with the Knights….However, UCF dropped their last two home games (Buffs, Bearcats)…..The Knights have lost four in a row but this feels eerily similar to LY when the Knights dropped five (!) in a row midseason and then found their mojo winning 3L4 games.
Summary
We like the matchup of the UCF rushing attack at home vs the BYU run defense. We also believe that the QB change has given this team a much needed shot of energy. In terms of the Knights L4G (losses) they outgained a very good Colorado team, lost by 11 on the road to a vastly improving Florida squad, outgained Cincinnati, and came within a whisker of beating Iowa St in Ames. They’ve been better than their record shows. BYU has been outgained in their four Big 12 games by 21 YPG.
Conclusion
We like UCF is this game but will wait for some money to come back on the Cougars and get a slightly better price. It’s been all one-way action so far on UCF and the number got away from us. If it goes to -3 we’ll pass. Stay tuned!
UPDATE
Official pick – UCF -2.5 -108.
Sent 4:45pm Oct 25.
-2.5 is listed virtually everywhere.
‘Official play’ means that this is one of our favorite plays of the week (perceived value, match-up, coaching, trends, etc.). We’re currently investing 25% more on these plays vs our ‘leans’. We’ll normally have two or three of these choices per week.
‘Lean’ means that we’re placing a standard size wager on the game. We’ll normally have about ten of these plays per week. Many members prefer to pick and choose amongst these games when finalizing their weekly investment cards so we’ll continue to refer to them as ‘leans’.
‘No leanage’ means that we won’t have any action on the game.
Team totals – We’ll list the implied number based on the point spread and total when our analysis is posted. If a team total ends up being an ‘official play’ we’ll post a widely available number at the time of pick release.