Week 9 – LSU at Texas A&M
posted October 24
The Game
WHOA, NELLIE.
The game of the week is happening down in College Station on Saturday night as a pair of WHITE HOT teams go head-to-head. LSU has rattled off six consecutive wins since their opening week loss to USC and are playing their best football as we approach press time. Texas A&M has also won six straight contests after losing their first game (Notre Dame) and they sit atop the SEC standings (4-0) along with the Tigers (3-0).
Let’s goooooo!
The Details
Texas A&M -2.5 LSU (54.5)
MEGALOCKS LINE – Pick ’em
“Vegas” Implied Projected Score: Texas A&M 28.5 LSU 26
Texas A&M offense vs LSU defense
The Aggies QB situation appears to be settled with the return of a healthy Conner Weigman at QB but he’s been very inconsistent this season (62%, 3-4 TD to INT). The WR corps is underwhelming but they can hurt you from time to time. Their bread and butter is a ground attack (#12 FBS) led by RB Le’Veon Moss who’s had three 100-yard rushing days in the L5G. LSU has played very well vs the run this season (#33 FBS) and appear to be hitting their stride as we’re into the second half of the season. The Tigers’ pass rush has also heated up big time and after recording just two sacks in their F2G they’ve tallied 22 (!) in their last five outings. Texas A&M has done a very good job of protecting the passer but it remains to be seen how well the OL will hold up if they can’t get the run game going and are forced to take to the air more than planned.
LSU offense vs Texas A&M defense
The Tigers have done the vast majority of their damage thru the air behind the arm of emerging star QB Garrett Nussmeier who’s gone a bit under the national radar despite putting up some fine numbers (2,222, 18-6 TD to INT, 65%). Nussmeier has an elite set of weaponry to work with as he’s got three excellent WRs at his disposal along with a devastating pass-catching TE in Mason Taylor. Also note that LSU has only allowed TWO (!) sacks all season and they haven’t yielded one since the middle of September. Texas A&M hasn’t gotten the same level of heat on the QB as LY (17 sacks, 42 in 2023) so Nussmeier should have time to go to work. LSU struggled running the football early in the year but they’ve come alive with the insertion of true freshman RB Caden Durham who’s tallied a pair of 100-yard rushing efforts in the L3G.
Trends, Intangibles, and More!
LSU will have to buck a significant trend on Saturday night as the home team has won seven consecutive games in the series….LSU HC Brian Kelly is 66% ATS (!) as an underdog over his long coaching career and that includes an outright win over Ole Miss this season as a 3-point dog……..LSU is an impossible +22 in net sacks, Texas A&M is +10.
Summary
LSU is playing great football on both sides of the football right now. We’ve got them in the top-10 of our power ratings and you could easily make the argument that they’re currently as dangerous as any team in the SEC.
Conclusion
We’ll have an LSU-related play at some point. The consensus line is -2.5 -115 right now and let’s see if a +3 pops up. If the line drops to +1.5 we’d be fine with that number. Let’s be patient and see what happens.
UPDATE FRIDAY 4:30pm. Consensus line is Texas A&M -1 (55). Implied score – Texas A&M 28 LSU 27
Lean – Texas A&M team total under 28 (implied)
Posted 4:30pm Oct 25
We’ve seen anything from 27.5 +105 to 28.5 -135. Shop around.
‘Official play’ means that this is one of our favorite plays of the week (perceived value, match-up, coaching, trends, etc.). We’re currently investing 25% more on these plays vs our ‘leans’. We’ll normally have two or three of these choices per week.
‘Lean’ means that we’re placing a standard size wager on the game. We’ll normally have about ten of these plays per week. Many members prefer to pick and choose amongst these games when finalizing their weekly investment cards so we’ll continue to refer to them as ‘leans’.
‘No leanage’ means that we won’t have any action on the game.
Team totals – We’ll list the implied number based on the point spread and total when our analysis is posted. If a team total ends up being an ‘official play’ we’ll post a widely available number at the time of pick release.