Week 9 QUICK TAKES – College Football Predictions
Here are some QUICK TAKES on the games that did not make the cut for a longer write-up this week.
Let’s go!
FRIDAY 9:25am UPDATE. All the games have been covered. We’ll have more plays today before 5pm including a pair of send-out picks. We’ll advise when done.
FINAL UPDATE 4:15pm Friday – All done on this page. Play safe and enjoy the games!
Handy index: Quick Takes
‘Official’ picks in blue. ‘Leans’ in green. Waiting on a number or information to make a potential play in orange.
- Liberty at Kennesaw St (Wednesday)
- Missouri at ROLL TIDE
- Rutgers at USC (Friday)
- MTSU at Jacksonville St (Wednesday)
- Charlotte at Memphis
- Southern Miss at James Madison
- Kent St at Western Michigan
- Oregon St at California
- Florida St at Miami
- San Jose St at Fresno St
- Sam Houston at Louisiana Tech (Tuesday)
- UTEP at Louisiana Tech
- Bowling Green at Toledo (added Oct 22)
- Troy at Arkansas St
- Texas at Vanderbilt
- Georgia Southern at Old Dominion (Thursday)
- Louisville at Boston College (Friday)
- Utah at Houston
- Oklahoma at Ole Miss
- Wake Forest at Stanford
- Nevada at Hawaii
- Syracuse at Pittsburgh (Thursday)
- West Virginia at Arizona
- Georgia Tech at Virginia Tech
- Illinois at Oregon
- SMU at Duke
- Northwestern at Iowa
- Central Michigan at Miami Ohio
- Oklahoma St at Baylor
- Texas Tech at TCU
- Buffalo at Ohio
- Washington at Indiana
- Auburn at Kentucky
- Nebraska at Ohio St
- Eastern Michigan at Akron
- Ball St at Northern Illinois
- New Mexico at Colorado St
- Utah St at Wyoming
- Maryland at Minnesota
- Rice at Connecticut
- Boise St at UNLV
- Kansas at Kansas St (added Oct 25)
- Notre Dame vs Navy
- Michigan St at Michigan
- North Carolina at Virginia
- Tulane at North Texas
- Arkansas at Mississippi St
- Georgia St at Appalachian St
- UTSA at Tulsa
- ULM at South Alabama
- Penn St at Wisconsin
- Cincinnati at Colorado
- Temple at East Carolina
- Washington St at San Diego St
QUICK TAKES
1. Liberty -23.5 Kennesaw St (46.5)…………MEGALOCKS line – Liberty -24
Vegas Implied Score – Liberty 34.75 Kennesaw St 10.74
Liberty hasn’t been the crushing and killing machine that they were last season as they’ve only outscored CUSA opposition to the tune of 89-58….The good news for the Flames is that Kennesaw St is PURE FILTH and they have serious trouble moving the football….Note that we haven’t seen Liberty since Oct 8 (!) so maybe they come out fresh and smoking?
No leanage
2. ROLL TIDE -14 Missouri (56)…………MEGALOCKS line – ROLL TIDE -12
Vegas Implied Score – ROLL TIDE 35 Missouri 21
As if losing to the wacky Vanderbilt Commodores wasn’t enough, the Tide’s CFP aspirations took a major hit last week whilst losing to the Tennessee Volunteers on the road….We can’t back them this week as they need to clean up the penalties (that may take a while) and come up with more than two offensive plays (QB run, throw to Ryan Williams)…..If you wanna back Missouri we suggest waiting for practice reports on Missouri QB Brady Cook who left last week’s game due to injury BUT returned to lead a comeback win over Auburn….Backup QB Drew Pyne might be the worst QB in North America **.
Fact check: Entirely possible.
No leanage
3. USC -15 Rutgers (56)…………MEGALOCKS line – USC -14
Vegas Implied Score – USC 35.5 Rutgers 20.25
Neither team is worth an investment at this point as the Trojans season is an absolute disaster and they might not even make a bowl game at this point (3-4)……Rutgers has gone from CHOPPING WOOD and winning games to looking like a MONDO DOOK and getting destroyed by the opposition on a weekly basis (lost three straight)…..Injuries haven’t helped.
No leanage
4. Jacksonville St -21.5 MTSU (64)…………MEGALOCKS line – Jacksonville St -23.5
Vegas Implied Score – Jacksonville St 42.75 MTSU 21.25
The Gamecocks have been moving like a TREMENDOUS MACHINE and appear to be serious contenders for the CUSA crown…..They’ve tallied 54/63/44 points in their L3G vs three disgusting opponents….and guess what….they’ve got another turd coming to town in MTSU who’ve really fallen off the Group of Five map….Jacksonville St has the massive game with Liberty on deck…..Fav or pass and we’ll take a seat for now.
No leanage
5. Memphis -18 Charlotte (57)…………MEGALOCKS line – Memphis -16.5
Vegas Implied Score – Memphis 37.5 Charlotte 19.5
Memphis is very much alive in the AAC race but there are three undefeated teams ahead of them in conference play……They escaped with their lives last week vs a potent North Texas squad (W 52-44) and Charlotte presents much less of a threat on offense….Charlotte has been one of the most pleasant surprises in the Group of Five and they’ve booked wins over Rice and East Carolina…..Memphis is in a different weight class but the 49ers are a scrappy bunch…..Not crazy about laying more than 17 points.
No leanage
6. James Madison -24.5 Southern Miss (54.5)…………MEGALOCKS line – James Madison -23
Vegas Implied Score – James Madison 39.5 Southern Miss 15
Southern Miss has been a TIRE FIRE for a while and they just fired HC Will Hall…..We could only play James Madison in this spot but we never fade teams in game one off a coaching change as very often you get max effort from the players…..Also note that the Dukes have played two stinkers in their L3G.
No leanage
7. Western Michigan -17 Kent St (60)…………MEGALOCKS line – Western Michigan -16
Vegas Implied Score – Western Michigan 38.5 Kent St 21.5
Don’t look now but the Broncos are the only undefeated team in MAC play and their offense is absolutely COOKING right now as they’ve scored 48/34/45 L3G and now they get to face what might be the worst team in the country in Kent St….The bad news?? Western Michigan can’t play defense and Kent St scored 35/33 points vs bad defenses in conference games (Eastern Michigan, Ball St)…..Prefer the fav but hard to lay that many points.
No leanage
8. California -10 Oregon St (49)…………MEGALOCKS line – California -8.5
Vegas Implied Score – California 29.5 Oregon St 19.5
Not a game we’re interested in from an investment standpoint as the Golden Bears just blew a game at home vs NC St (L 24-23) and they continue to disappoint as a home favorite ATS…..Oregon St isn’t very good but they’ve won four games and are coming into town off a pair of one-score losses (Nevada, UNLV)….Could only look at the underdog in this tilt but taking a seat for now….Bigger game for Cal who’s 3-4 and teetering on the edge of bowl eligibility.
No leanage
9. Miami -21 Florida St (54.5)…………MEGALOCKS line – Miami -19
Vegas Implied Score – Miami 37.75 Florida St 16.75
Yes, guy.
YOUR Miami Hurricanes are 7-0 after their road win over LUA-VUH and they are moving the ball at will….They’re #1 in the nation in total offense (577 YPG) and #2 in scoring offense (48 PPG)….Someone is gonna eventually beat the Canes if they keep playing mediocre defense but it’ll almost certainly NOT be Florida St who features absolutely hideous QB play and whilst the Seminoles are playing very well on defense at some point they’re gonna give up points like everyone else that plays Miami…..21 points is still a lot for this rivalry game that’ll be full of intensity and hatred…..It could get ugly if Miami starts fast as they’ll probably wanna bury the Noles but we don’t think that’s a likely scenario….Florida St played a full 60 minutes vs Clemson and were stingy on defense.
No leanage
10. Fresno St -5.5 San Jose St (55)…………MEGALOCKS line – Fresno St -4
Vegas Implied Score – Fresno St 30.25 San Jose St 24.75
Elimination game in the Mountain West as both teams have one conference loss and there are four (!) undefeated teams (2-0) in the pecking order……We feel pretty good about what we’ll get from a well-coached San Jose St team but we haven’t got involved in any Fresno St games yet this season as they’ve been very inconsistent…..The Bulldogs are 17-4 (!) SU at home since the start of the 2021 season.
No leanage
11. Sam Houston -5.5 FIU (46.5)…………MEGALOCKS line – Sam Houston -6.5
Vegas Implied Score – Sam Houston 26 FIU 20.5
The Panthers are on the cusp of missing out on a bowl game (2-5) which was their goal heading into the season….They fell at UTEP last week but it’s worth noting that they lost their top-two QBs in that affair….Thankfully for FIU both of those guys (Keyone Jenkins, Amari Jones) should be good to go according to HC Mike MacIntyre but you never know in these weekday CUSA adventures…..FIU is very good vs the pass but extremely suspect vs the run……That’s bad news when facing a Sam Houston rushing attack that can EAT YOU UP (221 YPG, #11 FBS)……Sam Houston is clearly the better team but they’re also dealing with a QB injury as starting QB Hunter Watson who’s an excellent runner is highly questionable for this game….The line at -5.5 suggests to us that he is not gonna play, but again, you never know….Backup QB Jase Bauer did some good work with Central Michigan last year and he’s also a very dangerous runner…..Will he have the same chemistry and productivity as Watson?……Tough game to call….Line appears a bit short but we just don’t know about Bauer…..FIU in desperation mode and don’t forget that they took Liberty to OT….Sam Houston off a loss to WKU that did major damage to their conference dreams.
No leanage.
12. Louisiana Tech -7 UTEP (50)…………MEGALOCKS line – Louisiana Tech -5.5
Vegas Implied Score – Louisiana Tech 28.5 UTEP 21.5
MINER NATION upset FIU last week and they appear to be improving a wee bit as the season moves along….They’ve played a much tougher schedule than Louisiana Tech (#89 vs #155) and the ground attack has been much better lately (211/152 yards L2G)….Louisiana Tech is coming off an OT loss at New Mexico St and they’ve also lost to Tulsa (H)…..Preference to the underdog but it’s hard to ignore that UTEP is an impossibly horrible 12-53 (!) SU on the road since the start of the 2014 season.
No leanage
13. Toledo -3 Bowling Green (47.5)…………MEGALOCKS line – Toledo -3.5
Vegas Implied Score – Toledo 25.25 Bowling Green 22.25
We originally penciled this one in as a lean on Bowling Green but after doing a lot more work than a normal person would do…….NOT SO FAST MY FRIEND…..Bowling Green has three wins over teams with a combined record of 1-20 (!) and Toledo has dealt with a much tougher MAC docket (Miami Ohio, Buffalo, NIU)……Neither team can run the ball that well and both teams have very good MAC stop units….BG has allowed 12 sacks in the L3G….Toledo has played four road games and taken down Mississippi St, Miami Ohio, and NIU….It doesn’t matter to us who starts at QB….We’ll see if some “sharp money” comes in on the Falcons and if so, maybe we’ll bag a -2.5….Maybe.
Holding pattern – More research and line movement needed.
UPDATE – Speak of the devil and he shall appear.
Lean – Toledo -2.5
Posted 9:00am Oct 22
-2.5 is the clear consensus.
14. Arkansas St -7 Troy (51.5)…………MEGALOCKS line – Arkansas St -7
Vegas Implied Score – Arkansas St 29.25 Troy 22.25
Arkansas St took down Southern Miss last week and looked good doing it, but then again, everyone destroys Southern Miss…..They’re still in the division hunt one game back of the Cajuns and ULM and still get to face both of those squads….Troy has been a disaster this season but they played hard in a road loss at South Alabama last week….The home team is 2-6 ATS L8….Prefer the home team but the Red Wolves aren’t exactly a trustworthy team.
No leanage
15. Texas -19 Vanderbilt (53.5)…………MEGALOCKS line – Texas -19.5
Vegas Implied Score – Texas 36.25 Vanderbilt 17.25
Inquiring minds want to know….Can Vanderbilt SHOCK the WORLD one more time??…..It’s gonna be next to impossible to knock off mighty Texas given their talent advantage but the Longhorns just got their teeth kicked in by Georgia and no matter what they tell themselves….it’s not easy to get up for the Commodores….We were hoping for a number at +21/21.5 to take a stab with the underdog but here we are.
No leanage
16. Old Dominion -2 Georgia Southern (54)…………MEGALOCKS line – Georgia Southern -1
Vegas Implied Score – Old Dominion 28 Georgia Southern 26
Georgia Southern has done nothing wrong this season as they sit at 5-2 with their only losses coming vs Boise St (!) and Ole Miss (!)….They’ve got the better offense and have improved on defense (#4 YPP in conference play; ODU #7) whilst playing the tougher Sun Belt schedule……They just dominated James Madison (led 21-CACK, won 28-14) and the Dukes’ longest rush in that game was 12 yards….ODU is ranked #106 in total offense and #103 in total defense.
Lean – Georgia Southern +2
Posted 10:20am Oct 22
+2 in listed almost everywhere
17. Louisville -7.5 Boston College (53.5)…………MEGALOCKS line – Louisville -7
Vegas Implied Score – Louisville 30.5 Boston College 23
The Eagles have lost two games in a row but still have a record of 4-3…..This is despite being outgained in each of their L5G (!)…..They’re lacking at the skill positions and lost star CB Amari Jackson for the season a few weeks ago….LUA-VUH just had a tough battle with YOUR Miami Hurricanes and the defense has been a bit sketchy in ACC action but they’ve got a ton of firepower and speed on offense….QB Tyler Shough has a SPICY 18-4 TD to INT mark and their top-two RBs are averaging 8.3/9.0 YPC…..We’ll see if -7 comes back later in the week and go from there.
Holding pattern – Stay tuned. We’ll see if -7 becomes available again later in the week and make a decision.
UPDATE – no play.
18. Utah -3.5 Houston (36.5)…………MEGALOCKS line – Utah -5
Vegas Implied Score – Utah 20 Houston 16.5
Utah is showing a bit of “value” according to our numbers but they’re on the NO FLY LIST for now as they’ve lost three Big 12 games and their season is down the CRAPPER before Halloween so we’re not sure how motivated they’ll be in this game….Houston has been brutal in 3L4 games but they took TCU behind the WOODSHED on the road recently.
No leanage
19. Ole Miss -20 Oklahoma (49)…………MEGALOCKS line – Ole Miss -17.5
Vegas Implied Score – Ole Miss 34.5 Oklahoma 14.5
We could only look to the favorite in this game as the Sooners have a hideous offense but note that QB Jackson Arnold is scheduled to be back at QB this week…..Too bad the OL stinks and the WR group is beaten to a pulp with injuries….Oklahoma can still play defense tho and it’s not like Ole Miss has been good enough on offense vs good stop units to move up and down the field at will….Steep price to back the Rebels….Tempting but gonna take a seat.
No leanage
20. Wake Forest -3 Stanford (54)…………MEGALOCKS line – Wake Forest -2.5
Vegas Implied Score – Wake Forest 28.5 Stanford 25.5
We felt DIRTY last week going against UConn but Wake Forest got us to the window….They made it way too difficult on themselves and we don’t trust the worst defense in the ACC (453 YPG) to travel well going all the way out to California….Stanford is hot garbage but this is a yuuuuge drop in class after playing Clemson, Virginia Tech, Notre Dame, and SMU in their L4G.
No leanage
21. Nevada -2.5 Hawaii (46.5)…………MEGALOCKS line – Nevada -5
Vegas Implied Score – Nevada 24.5 Hawaii 22
This line stood out like a sore thumb when browsing the openers but it 100% makes sense given the situation at QB for Nevada…..QB Brendon Lewis has been MUCH better than anticipated and your boy Chubba Purdy at QB is a dicey situation until proven otherwise…We can’t invest in Nevada with him under center even though Nevada has the better team and a yuuuuge coaching edge…..If the line moves in favor of the Pack later in the week or on gameday you’ll know that Lewis will almost certainly start but that doesn’t seem likely as we approach press time…….Last chance for Hawaii to do something vs an FBS team or this season might get really ugly.
No leanage
22. Pittsburgh -6 Syracuse (63)………..MEGALOCKS line – Pittsburgh -4
Vegas Implied Score – Pittsburgh 34.5 Syracuse 28.5
This is one of the most interesting contests of the week and we get it on Thursday night……Pitt is undefeated with three close shaves (Cincinnati, WV, Cal) and they’ve got a deadly offense behind QB Eli Holstein and the HUMAN HIGHLIGHT REEL RB Desmond Reid…..Their pass defense is MONDO SKETCHY tho and that’s bad news when facing the Orange and their air raid attack….QB Kyle McCord has thrown the ball almost 300 (!) times in 6 games and only tossed 6 INT (19 TD) and they can keep you honest with RB LeQuint Allen….Both teams are gonna score….We trust the Orange defense more (#15 3rd down D) and they get star MLB Marlowe Max back this week (“probably will play” according to HC Fran Brown; UPDATE – Tuesday – Doubtful that he will play- It was just gonna be a bonus)….Syracuse is 2-0 on the road with wins over UNLV and NC State…..They’ve outgained EVERY opponent on their schedule…..Should be a one-score game so we’ll grab the points and hang on for a wild ride, yo.
Lean – Syracuse +6
Posted 1:39pm Oct 22
+6 is listed virtually everywhere
23. Arizona -3 West Virginia (55)…………MEGALOCKS line – Arizona -1.5
Vegas Implied Score – Arizona 29 West Virginia 26
This game is an easy pass according to our DEEP BIG 12 INSIDERS….Arizona is 3-4 and losers of three straight games….The Mountaineers had a chance to show the world what they were all about and become a Big 12 contender and they SHAT the BED at home in back-to-back weeks vs Kansas St and Iowa St…..They’re also sitting at 3-4 as we approach press time….Prefer the dog but can’t trust either team.
No leanage
24. Virginia Tech -10.5 Georgia Tech (52)…………MEGALOCKS line – Virginia Tech -8
Vegas Implied Score – Virginia Tech 31.25 Georgia Tech 20.75
We’ll roll with road underdog in this BAD BOY even with backup QB Zach Pyron under center as he looked fine vs Notre Dame and the Yellow Jackets will be able to run the ball….We like the matchup of the #6 rushing offense in the ACC vs the 2nd worst run D in the ACC (Hokies)…VT has a lot of success on D thanks to their pass rush (#1 ACC sacks, 25) but Georgia Tech has only allowed 3 sacks all season…Georgia Tech outplayed LUA-VUH on the road, gave Duke their only loss, and beat UNC on the road in three games before the loss to ND last week…..Georgia Tech has covered 8 in a row in Blacksburg and won the last four in a row outright.
Lean – Georgia Tech +10.5
Posted 3:18pm EST Oct 22
+10.5 is consensus. +10s are starting to pop up.
25. Oregon -21.5 Illinois (55)…………MEGALOCKS line – Oregon -19.5
Vegas Implied Score – Oregon 38.25 Illinois 16.75
Oregon is definitely hitting their stride and coming off a 35-CACK road pasting of Purdue in their last outing….Illinois is 6-1 and lurking in the Big Ten standings but they’ve barely outscored Big Ten opposition to date and it’s tough to see them keeping up in this one even tho the spread looks a bit rich…..Note they were outgained by Michigan last week but were +3 in t/o margin.
No leanage
26. SMU -12 Duke (48.5)…………MEGALOCKS line – SMU -10
Vegas Implied Score – SMU 30.25 Duke 18.25
Don’t look now but SMU just might be on a DATE with DESTINY to book a spot in the ACC title game….They’re undefeated in conference action and have a favorable schedule ahead …….Duke has only lost one game but this is the best team they’ve faced all season and Florida St outgained them 291-180 (!) last week….Not interested in laying double digits on the road in a “survive and advance” game but that’s the only way we could play it.
No leanage
27. Iowa -14 Northwestern (38)…………MEGALOCKS line – Iowa -12
Vegas Implied Score – Iowa 26 Northwestern 12
This definitely has the look of a SNOT BUBBLER and whilst we’re tempted to play the ‘under’ it’s tough to go under a total of 38….Northwestern has been really good on defense but they’re ranked #129 in total offense, #103 in rushing, and #130 in passing efficiency…..Iowa should be able to handle whatever NW decides to do and we expect they’ll grind out a double-digit win like Wisconsin did vs the Cats last week…..We’d be more interested in playing Iowa in the -10 range but here we are.
No leanage
28. Miami Ohio -12 Central Michigan (47)…………MEGALOCKS line – Miami Ohio -10
Vegas Implied Score – Miami Ohio 29.5 Central Michigan 17.5
Miami Ohio is starting to look like WHO WE THOUGHT THEY WERE now that they’re playing MAC competition….They’ve taken down Eastern Michigan and Ohio with ease and this Chippewas squad is probably worse than both of those teams….Just be aware that it’s always tricky to lay double digits in MACtion and it’s a relatively low total.
No leanage
29. Baylor -6.5 Oklahoma St (65)…………MEGALOCKS line – Baylor -5.5
Vegas Implied Score – Baylor 34.75 Oklahoma St 30.25
Yes, guy.
Baylor FINALLY played well AND sealed the deal last week when they went on the road and smoked a good Texas Tech squad….Oklahoma St almost SHOCKED the WORLD last week at BYU whilst (former?) star RB Ollie Gordon awoke from his slumber….Both teams are too flaky to trust this week.
No leanage
30. TCU -6.5 Texas Tech (66.5)…………MEGALOCKS line – TCU -5
Vegas Implied Score – TCU 36.5 Texas Tech 30
TCU has been a disappointment so far this year but they beat a struggling Utah group on the road last week just one game after getting SPANKED at home by Houston…..Texas Tech allowed 59 points last week (!) vs Baylor so we expect TCU to have their best offensive game in a while….The Red Raiders have been the better team this year and won four in a row before last week’s debacle…..Gut feel says that TCU gets it done but the spread is a bit too high in our estimation.
No leanage
31. Ohio -6 Buffalo (44.5)…………MEGALOCKS line – Ohio -5
Vegas Implied Score – Ohio 25.25 Buffalo 19.25
We’ve almost certainly got a MAC elimination game in Athens this weekend as both squads have one conference loss….Ohio has exceeded expectations but they may not be ALL THAT AND A BAG OF CHIPS…..They took down a pair of MAC scrubs whilst getting significantly outplayed by Miami Ohio…..We love the story in Buffalo and it’s the closest FBS team to MEGALOCKS HQ but their offense is just so disgusting (#116 total offense, #127 passing) that it’s hard to trust them to cover…..The home team is 11-2 SU / 10-3 ATS L13…….Ohio would be worth a play at -4 and Buffalo at +7.5 and here we are.
No leanage
32. Indiana -6.5 Washington (53.5)…………MEGALOCKS line – Indiana -7.5
Vegas Implied Score – Indiana 30 Washington 23.5
The Hoosiers are moving like a TREMENDOUS MACHINE as they lead the nation (!) in PPG (48.7) and have outscored the opposition to the tune of 341-96….Our numbers slightly favor the home team Hoosiers but we’re a bit leery of the underdog Huskies as they’ve outgained every opponent on the season (including Iowa by 65 yards; lost by 24) and have played the #56 schedule (Indiana #100)….Also note that Indiana will be rolling with their backup QB and whilst Tayven Jackson looked really good when he was called upon in the blowout win over CORN he’s still an unknown quantity compared to injured starter Kurtis Rourke…..Washington QB Will Rogers has a 13-2 TD to INT mark…..Indiana is 7-0 ATS this year and a betting darling at the windows but somehow FADE THE PUBLIC GUY won’t mention that because he’s on Indiana.
No leanage
33. Kentucky -2.5 Auburn (43.5)…………….MEGALOCKS line – Kentucky -3
Vegas Implied Score – Kentucky 23 Auburn 20.5
Both of these teams need to be avoided at all costs for the time being from an investment standpoint….Kentucky is coming off a pair of losses and that last outing was absolutely brutal (L 48-20 at Florida)…..We used to be able to count on the Wildcats’ stop unit….Auburn seems to invent new ways to lose every week despite looking very good between the 20-yard lines on offense and on defense.
No leanage
34. Ohio St -25.5 Nebraska (48.5)…………MEGALOCKS line – Ohio St -23
Vegas Implied Score – Ohio St 37 Nebraska 11.5
The spread looks a bit high to us even tho it’s clear that Ohio St has one of the best rosters and teams in college football……The Buckeyes are #6 in total offense and #2 in total defense and will have no problem handling anything that CORN wants to do on offense….Normally we’d think that the Huskers could be good enough to hang around and cover this yuuuge number by playing sound defense but they just gave up 56 (!) points to Indiana.
No leanage
35. Eastern Michigan -3 Akron (52)…………MEGALOCKS line – Eastern Michigan -3.5
Vegas Implied Score – Eastern Michigan 27.5 Akron 24.5
Eastern Michigan is still in the MAC hunt with one conference loss and they’re only one game away from securing bowl eligibility (5-2)….The issue with backing the Eagles is that they’ve played one of the softest schedules imaginable (#147) whilst Akron has dealt with the toughest list of assignments in the MAC (#68) which included a brutal non-conference docket (at Ohio St, at Rutgers, at South Carolina)…..Akron just gave Bowling Green and Western Michigan good games but we just don’t see enough value for a play on the underdog…..However, there’s enough variance in the outcome that Akron gets on the short list for our ML underdog list posted on Friday.
No leanage
36. Northern Illinois -12 Ball St (49)…………MEGALOCKS line – Northern Illinois -13.5
Vegas Implied Score – Northern Illinois 30.5 Ball St 18.5
We love the way the Huskies play defense (#3 FBS) but they’ve only scored more than 20 points vs one FBS team (UMass)……Ball St has one of the worst defenses in the nation but they found a way to score 42/37/35 in their three MAC games….We also question NIU’s motivation now that they’ve got two conference losses.
No leanage
37. Colorado St -6.5 New Mexico (65.5)…………MEGALOCKS line – Colorado St -4
Vegas Implied Score – Colorado St 36 New Mexico 29.5
The Rams haven’t been great but they’ve certainly at least met expectations so far (4-3) and their improvement lies mostly in their newly found ability to run the football (#44 FBS; #123 LY)…..New Mexico is quickly becoming a BURGEONING JUGGERNAUT behind star QB Devon Dampier and they’ve scored 50+ in THREE (!) straight games……The bad news is that their defense is wretched (#131 total defense)…….The Rams have won 12 straight in the series.
No leanage
38. Wyoming -1.5 Utah St (57.5)…………MEGALOCKS line – Pick ’em
Vegas Implied Score – Wyoming 29.5 Utah St 28
Wyoming is having an awful season to say the least (1-6) and their struggles have come on both sides of the football (#131 total offense, #110 total defense)….Utah St is also 1-6 and their only win came in the opener vs a guy named Robert Morris……The Aggies are starting to come alive on offense (45/34/30/29 L4G) but their defense stinks (#132)……Coin flip with a bit of a preference to the team that can actually SCORE the FOOTBALL.
No leanage
39. Minnesota -4 Maryland (46.5)…………MEGALOCKS line – Minnesota -3.5
Vegas Implied Score – Minnesota 25.25 Maryland 21.25
The Gophers are coming off a bye and a pair of wins over UCLA and USC……Their offense has been putrid (#115 FBS) and they can’t even run the ball (#118) with a star RB in Darius Taylor….Their defense has been excellent overall tho (#5) and they’ve been particularly stingy vs the pass (#5 pass efficiency defense) which is how Maryland likes to move the ball (#9)……The Terps are coming off a comeback win over….wait for it….USC…….Tough call at this price point……If you like offense, roll with Maryland……Minnesota if you think their defense will win the day.
No leanage
40. Connecticut -6.5 Rice (46.5)…………MEGALOCKS line – Connecticut -5
Vegas Implied Score – Connecticut 26.5 Rice 20
We went against the UCONN TRAIN last week and whilst they didn’t get the money they battled right to the end and almost pulled off a comeback victory over Wake Forest…….Rice has been a disappointment overall but they’ve looked decent in their L3G vs Charlotte (lost by 1), UTSA (won by 2), and Tulane (lost by 14)…..No compelling value on either side.
No leanage
41. Boise St -3 UNLV (64)…………MEGALOCKS line – Boise St -3
Vegas Implied Score – Boise St 33.5 UNLV 30.5
We’ve spent a lot of time on this game and sadly it appears that the spread is DEAD ON BALLS ACCURATE **….Boise St has one of the best players in college football in RB Ashton Jeanty (1,248, 9.9, 17 TD)(!), a crafty QB, and an excellent pass rush (29 sacks, #1 FBS)…..UNLV has one of the most dynamic QBs in the Group of Five in Hajj-Malik Williams who’s been ON FIRE since taking over the starting duties (10-2 TD to INT, 390 rush), an opportunistic defense (16 turnovers, #4 FBS), and a significant HC edge in our humble estimation….Put all that in a blender and sprinkle in a dash of the fact that Boise St owns UNLV (6-0 SU) and we’re very undecided on which way to go in this BAD BOY…..Can’t wait to watch, tho!
** an industry term
No leanage
42. Kansas St -10 Kansas (56)…………MEGALOCKS line – Kansas St -12
Vegas Implied Score – Kansas St 33 Kansas 23
The Wildcats have looked really good in their L3G…..300 rush yards in a blowout win over Oklahoma St, a road win over Colorado, and a spanking of WV on the road…..Kansas sits at 2-5 and whilst they looked great vs Houston last week, that was Houston….The Cats have owned the series of late….15-0 SU / 11-4 ATS L15 although Kansas got the money in a 4-point loss last year.
Holding pattern – There are some -9.5s popping up. Let’s wait and see if that becomes consensus.
UPDATE
Lean – Kansas St -9.5
Posted 12:04pm Oct 25
-9.5 is the clear consensus. There’s a light dusting of -10s out there but also a -8.5. Shop around.
43. Notre Dame -13 Navy (51)…………MEGALOCKS line – Notre Dame -15.5
Vegas Implied Score – Notre Dame 32 Navy 19
The Fighting Irish are 6-1 and have bounced back nicely from their early season loss to Northern Illinois….They’ve outscored their last five opponents by a tally of 205-54 (!) and they’ve played the #51 schedule whilst Navy has dealt with the #144 schedule (!) according to the Sagarin ratings….Navy has been playing fantastic football and they’re a ton of fun to watch thanks in large part to star QB Blake Horvath and OC Drew Cronic….This is just such a yuuuge rise in class for the Midshipmen that it’s hard to see them staying in range heading into the 4th Q….Note that Navy has played one decent team all season (Memphis) and they allowed 659 yards in that game….Notre Dame isn’t explosive on offense but they’re very efficient and QB Riley Leonard appears to be hitting his stride.
Lean – Notre Dame -13
Posted 3:05pm Oct 24
-13 is the clear consensus.
44. Michigan -5.5 Michigan St (39.5)…………MEGALOCKS line – Michigan -5
Vegas Implied Score – Michigan 22.5 Michigan St 17
The Wolverines’ season is officially down the tubes after losing on the road vs Illinois…..Their offense is hideous thanks to the BLACK HOLE at QB but they’re very stout vs the run (#9 FBS) and that could mean trouble for a Michigan St team that would like to keep the ball on the ground as much as possible….Their QB Aidan Chiles has a bright future but he also sports a 6-10 (!) TD to INT mark……We think Michigan St can hang around but we’d want +7 and here we are…..Michigan St is 13-3 ATS L16 in the series….High variance game and Sparty is on our short list for ML underdog action posted on Friday.
No leanage
45. Virginia -4 North Carolina (59)…………MEGALOCKS line – Virginia -3.5
Vegas Implied Score – Virginia 31.5 North Carolina 27.5
The Tar Heels have long been forgotten by the college football world as they’re on a four-game skid and coming off a bye week….It’s worth noting however that UNC led Duke by 20 (lost by 1), lost by 10 to undefeated Pitt, and lost to Georgia Tech by 7….Virginia just got their teeth kicked in by Clemson and this will be their 4th week of action in a row….Line looks about right but it appears to be a good spot for the underdog…..Tough call.
No leanage
46. Tulane -8 North Texas (67)…………MEGALOCKS line – Tulane -8.5
Vegas Implied Score – Tulane 37.5 North Texas 29.5
The Green Wave are one of three teams undefeated in AAC play (Army, Navy) and they’ve been solid on offense (#22 FBS rushing offense, #11 passing efficiency) whilst playing sound defense (#24, 316 YPG)…..North Texas is explosive enough on offense to make this interesting but their awful defense has found a new level of ‘awful’ recently…..They allowed 37 points to FAU (!) and 52 points to Memphis in their last two games….We’d want double digits to back the dog.
No leanage
47. Arkansas -7 Mississippi St (57)…………MEGALOCKS line – Arkansas -9.5
Vegas Implied Score – Arkansas 32 Mississippi St 25
WOO PIG is definitely the better team by a good margin and we see some value in backing them at the current number BUT we can’t ignore the fact that Mississippi St is playing WAYYYY better since Michael Van Buren took over at QB…..WOO PIG will be without #1 RB Ja’Quinden Jackson.
No leanage
48. Appalachian St -7 Georgia St (61)…………MEGALOCKS line – Appalachian St -8.5
Vegas Implied Score – Appalachian St 34 Georgia St 27
The Mountaineers are coming off a bye and in their L2G before the break they outgained Marshall and the Cajuns on the road but lost on both occasions due to the turnover bug (-6 combined)……Georgia St is oscillating between QBs and have a horrible defense (#118 run D, #97 pass efficiency)….App St allowed just 365 yards vs Marshall and 364 vs the Cajuns….Both of those teams are Sun Belt contenders.
Holding pattern – Prefer the favorite; Need to do a bit more digging.
UPDATE
Official pick – Appalachian St -7 -109
Sent 10:19am Oct 25.
-7 is consensus. A few -7.5s are starting to emerge.
- UTSA -8.5 Tulsa (53.5)…………MEGALOCKS line – UTSA -9.5
Vegas Implied Score – UTSA 31 Tulsa 22.5
The Roadrunners are starting to play a bit closer to their potential and they’ve got one of the best run defenses in the Group of Five (#11 FBS)….That matches up very well with what Tulsa wants to try and do on offense…..They’re #57 in rushing but #116 in passing efficiency…..Tulsa got lost by 10 on the road to Temple last week and appear to be getting worse as the season moves along.
Lean – UTSA -8.5
Posted 9:25am Oct 25
-8.5 is the consensus number.
- South Alabama -7 ULM (45)…………MEGALOCKS line – South Alabama -8
Vegas Implied Score – South Alabama 26 ULM 19
The mighty ULM Warhawks are only one win away from bowl eligibility….and more importantly….they’re still in the West division race along with South Alabama…..ULM is undefeated (!) in conference play whilst South Alabama has one Sun Belt loss (Arkansas St) so this is a must-win game for their Sun Belt hopes…….We prefer South Alabama and their excellent QB Gio Lopez (13-1 TD to ULM) but the Warhawks have been a tough team to score on this season….Their offense stinks but it doesn’t seem to matter.
No leanage
- Penn St -6.5 Wisconsin (47.5)…………MEGALOCKS line – Penn St -7
Vegas Implied Score – Penn St 27 Wisconsin 20.5
“Is it real, or is it Memorex?”
If you’re old enough to remember that commercial, welcome to the club…..The Badgers have looked really good over the L3G destroying three Big Ten foes (Purdue, Rutgers, Northwestern) but those teams are all BOTTOM FEEDERS or sinking like a stone (Rutgers)….We don’t see the Badgers having much success on offense with QB Braedyn Locke (7-5 TD to INT) and Penn St should be able to handle the Wisconsin ground attack (#10 FBS run D)…..The Badgers will have their hands full with the Penn St offense as they allowed 42 points to ROLL TIDE and 38 to USC.
Holding pattern – Let’s see if a -6 pops up. -7 would be a pass.
UPDATE – no play.
- Colorado -6.5 Cincinnati (57)……………MEGALOCKS line – Colorado -7
Vegas Implied Score – Colorado 31.75 Cincinnati 25.25
Colorado has been playing inspired football since the loss to CORN (won four of last five games) as they’ve found balance on offense and an ability to play respectable defense…..Cincinnati has also been a very pleasant surprise as they’ve also won four of their last five games with the only loss coming at Texas Tech by 3 points…..We liked the Buffs closer to the -5 price or even -6 as this is long trip for the Bearcats and we’re not sure they can hold up vs Colorado’s THROW GAME….On the fence for now at -6.5.
No leanage
- East Carolina -7.5 Temple (49)…………MEGALOCKS line – East Carolina -8.5
Vegas Implied Score – East Carolina 28.25 Temple 20.75
The ARRRRRRRRRRRRR Pirates made a change at head coach and that automatically put them on the radar for a potential play……We see a bit of value in the number but they still turn the ball over way too much (19 turnovers, last FBS) and note that Temple is a much better team with Evan Simon at QB (10-3 TD to INT) and they only allowed 29/10 points L2G.
No leanage
- Washington St -14 San Diego St (57).………..MEGALOCKS line – Washington St -16.5
Vegas Implied Score – Washington St 35.5 San Diego St 21.5
The Cougars have an excellent dual-threat QB in John Mateer (16 TD passes, 533 rush) and appear to be showing value according to our numbers……but have we fully appreciated the improvement in San Diego St under new HC Sean Lewis?….QB Danny O’Neil has only thrown one INT in 140 attempts and RB Marquez Cooper is well on his way to a 1,000-yard season (670, 6 TD)….The Aztecs have also recorded 20 (!) sacks in their L4G.
No leanage
‘Official play’ means that this is one of our favorite plays of the week (perceived value, match-up, coaching, trends, etc.). We’re currently investing 25% more on these plays vs our ‘leans’. We’ll normally have two or three of these choices per week.
‘Lean’ means that we’re placing a standard size wager on the game. We’ll normally have about ten of these plays per week. Many members prefer to pick and choose amongst these games when finalizing their weekly investment cards so we’ll continue to refer to them as ‘leans’.
‘No leanage’ means that we won’t have any action on the game.
Team totals – We’ll list the implied number based on the point spread and total when our analysis is posted. If a team total ends up being an ‘official play’ we’ll post a widely available number at the time of pick release.