Week 10 QUICK TAKES – College Football Predictions
Here are some QUICK TAKES on the games that did not make the cut for a longer write-up this week.
Let’s go!
FRIDAY 11:00am UPDATE – Should have a few more plays before 5pm today including a send-out pick.
FRIDAY 4:30pm UPDATE – We’re done for the week. Enjoy the games and play safe!
Handy index: Quick Takes
‘Official’ picks in blue. ‘Leans’ in green. Waiting on a number or information to make a potential play in orange.
- New Mexico St at FIU (Tuesday)
- Louisiana Tech at Sam Houston (Tuesday)
- Wyoming at New Mexico
- Duke at Miami
- Kennesaw St at WKU (Wednesday)
- Stanford at NC State
- Louisiana at Texas St (Tuesday)
- USF at FAU (Friday)
- Toledo at Eastern Michigan
- MTSU at UTEP
- Tulsa at UAB
- Kansas St at Houston
- Jacksonville St at Liberty (Wednesday)
- Old Dominion at Appalachian St
- Tulane at Charlotte (Thursday)
- Colorado St at Nevada
- Hawaii at Fresno St
- Buffalo at Akron
- Georgia St at UConn (Friday)
- UMass at Mississippi St
- San Diego St at Boise St (Friday)
- Air Force at Army
- Navy at Rice
- Arizona St at Oklahoma St
- Pittsburgh at SMU
- UCLA at CORN
- Virginia Tech at Syracuse
- ULM at Marshall
- Louisville at Clemson
- North Carolina at Florida St
- USC at Washington
- Texas Tech at Iowa St
- Kentucky at Tennessee
- Northwestern at Purdue
- Arizona at UCF
- Oregon at Michigan
- Minnesota at Illinois
- Wisconsin at Iowa
- Indiana at Michigan St
- Texas A&M at South Carolina
- Coastal Carolina at Troy
- Georgia Southern at South Alabama
- Ole Miss at WOO PIG
- Vanderbilt at Auburn
- Memphis at UTSA
- Georgia vs Florida
QUICK TAKES
1. FIU -9.5 New Mexico St (43.5)…………MEGALOCKS line – FIU -8.5
Vegas Implied Score – FIU 26.5 New Mexico St 17
The Panthers are our preferred side in this Tuesday night tilt as they’ve played well vs Liberty (lost in OT) and Sam Houston (lost by 3)….However, there are a few issues with taking the favorite….FIU’s QB play has been hideous….and that’s when they’re healthy….who knows what the rotation will look like this week….Further, New Mexico St might have some life after beating Louisiana Tech in OT last time out and they can run the ball….FIU is #119 in the nation in run D.
No leanage
2. Sam Houston -10.5 Louisiana Tech (45.5)…………MEGALOCKS line – Sam Houston -10
Vegas Implied Score – Sam Houston 28 Louisiana Tech 17.5
Sam Houston is bowl eligible (6-2) and they control their own destiny in CUSA….They’ve still got games with WKU, Liberty, and Jacksonville St….The Bearkats get starting QB Hunter Watson back this week which is yuuuge but note that Louisiana Tech has been playing inspired defense this season….The Bulldogs are #20 in the country in total defense (307 YPG) and #26 vs the run which is Sam Houston’s preferred mode of transportation…..This will be a significant step up in class for Louisiana Tech after playing UTEP, New Mexico St, and MTSU in their L3G….We were hoping for a number less than -10 to take the favorite but here we are.
No leanage
3. New Mexico -7.5 Wyoming (60.5)…………MEGALOCKS line – New Mexico -6.5
Vegas Implied Score – New Mexico 34 Wyoming 26.5
The Lobos are making a push for a bowl bid in year one of the Bronco Mendenhall regime (3-5) and we expect to get a max effort from them in this one behind dynamic dual-threat QB Devon Dampier….Wyoming is having a brutal season but their offense is showing signs of life and New Mexico’s defense is HOT TRASH (#130 total D, #129 run D, #123 pass efficiency D) and that makes them tough to trust laying more than a TD as we approach press time….Note that New Mexico outplayed Colorado St on the road last week but they were (-4) in t/o margin….QB Devon Dampier has a ghastly 9-11 TD to INT mark.
No leanage
4. Miami -20.5 Duke (54.5)…………MEGALOCKS line – Miami -18
Vegas Implied Score – Miami 37.5 Duke 17
This looks like a few too many points for YOUR Miami Hurricanes to lay in this game even though Duke hasn’t looked great the L3G…They were +6 (!) in t/o margin last week vs SMU and still couldn’t win (outgained), were outgained by Florida St (+4 in t/o margin) but managed to win by 7, and they lost to Georgia Tech by 10 (outgained by over 100Y)…..They’re still very solid on defense (#1 ACC YPP) and note that Duke HC Manny Diaz makes his return trip to Miami…..Expect a 100% effort from the road team….Will that be enough to get the money?
No leanage
5. WKU -24.5 Kennesaw St (50.5)…………MEGALOCKS line – WKU -24
Vegas Implied Score – WKU 37.5 Kennesaw St 13
Tough to game to call at this price point….The last time we saw the Hilltoppers they were spanking a good Sam Houston squad on the road (W 31-14) and they’re one of four legit contenders for the CUSA crown….Kennesaw St had a serious SHOCK the WORLD moment last week when they took down Liberty and whilst it’s reasonable to expect a bit of a letdown the reality is that they looked a lot better vs the Flames on offense, particularly with the THROW GAME…..Kennesaw St has only allowed one team to score more than 34 points but we suppose WKU has the license to do it on Wednesday night…..Prefer the favorite but would only be interested if some mob steam takes the number down to -23.5 or similar.
No leanage
6. NC State -9.5 Stanford (46.5)…………MEGALOCKS line – NC State -10
Vegas Implied Score – NC State 28 Stanford 18.5
You know the routine with these two teams…..We’ve avoided them all season for the most part as Stanford is still finding its way whilst NC State has been WHO WE THOUGHT THEY WERE which is not very good…..The good news for the Wolfpack is that they’ve looked better on offense with CJ Bailey at QB (67%, 8-4 TD to INT).
No leanage
7. Texas St -3.5 Louisiana (58)…………MEGALOCKS line – Texas St -4
Vegas Implied Score – Texas St 30.75 Louisiana 27.25
WHOA, NELLIE….This is a big game in the Sun Belt as West division leader Louisiana will try and grab a chokehold on the division as they’re the only team in that group who’s undefeated in conference action…..We spent a while on this game and whilst we had a gut feel to play the Cajuns the numbers don’t fully support it…Both teams feature potent and balanced offenses but Texas St has the advantage with star RB Ismail Mahdi regaining his form (100+ yards each of L2G) and Texas St is more likely to put Louisiana behind the chains with sacks (25, #1 Sun Belt; Cajuns 9)…..Texas St is solid vs the run and pass on defense whilst the Cajuns have trouble stopping the run (#77 FBS)…..The good news for Louisiana is that they’re an impossible 11-0 SU vs Texas St in conference play…..NOTE for totals players….The forecast is calling for windy conditions and that would favor the Bobcats slightly in our estimation….As always, we recommend utilizing in-game wagering for “weather plays” as it’s best to see it for your own eyes and determine if there’s any value in the line……Last week’s UConn/Rice game was a prime example….#Tornado.
No leanage
8. USF -3 FAU (53)…………MEGALOCKS line – USF -4
Vegas Implied Score – USF 28 FAU 25
Not a game we’re interested in from an investment standpoint…..FAU is improving on offense but they can’t play defense…..USF’s offense has been a tragedy and the defense is disgusting….The Bulls have the more talented roster and should prevail but who knows?
No leanage
9. Toledo -8 Eastern Michigan (54)…………MEGALOCKS line – Toledo -7.5
Vegas Implied Score – Toledo 31 Eastern Michigan 23
The Rockets MAC dreams went GLUG GLUG GLUG down the drain after their loss to Bowling Green last week and whilst they’re the more talented squad it’s tough to gauge their motivation and the Eagles are looking for that 6th win and bowl eligibility….Eastern Michigan outgained Akron by over 80 yards last week and made a yuuuge comeback to take the lead….Unfortunately, Akron found a way to make a REVERSE COMEBACK and snatch the victory.
No leanage
10. UTEP -3 MTSU (51)…………MEGALOCKS line – UTEP -3
Vegas Implied Score – UTEP 27 MTSU 24
These teams are equally disgusting and similar from a talent statistical perspective on the battlefield, hence the -3 line in favor of UTEP…..The Miners appear to have a bit more mojo as we approach press time but MTSU has the more talented QB…..Have fun with this one, yo.
No leanage
11. UAB -3.5 Tulsa (58.5)…………MEGALOCKS line – UAB -5.5
Vegas Implied Score – UAB 31 Tulsa 27.5
Tulsa pulled off a MIRACLE ON ICE ** without the ICE last week when they came back from 25 (!) points down midway thru the 3Q vs UTSA….UAB is the more talented team but Tulsa may have found something last week in backup QB Cooper Legas who threw 5 (!!) TD passes coming off the bench…..And never forget that UAB is coached by Trent Dilfer.
** Note to youngsters: Research “greatest moments in USA sports history” for reference. We recommend using something other than the CIA tool known as “Google”, but you do you.
No leanage
12. Kansas St -13 Houston (46.5)…………MEGALOCKS line – Kansas St -11
Vegas Implied Score – Kansas St 29.75 Houston 16.75
Kansas St escaped by the skin of their teeth last week at home vs Kansas and appear to be laying a few too many points vs a scrappy Houston squad that boasts wins over TCU and Utah (!)….But can that Houston offense be trusted?
No leanage
13. Liberty -2.5 Jacksonville St (63.5)…………MEGALOCKS line – Liberty -1
Vegas Implied Score – Liberty 33 Jacksonville St 30.5
Yes, guy.
We’ve got a clash of two CUSA titans on Wednesday night….Jacksonville St has been ripping teams to shreds over the L4G as they’ve scored 42/54/63/44 points whilst averaging an impossible 357 (!) YPG on the ground…..Yes, all four of those teams are PURE FILTH but note that Liberty also played a pair of disgusting teams in their L2G and they need OT to beat FIU and they lost to Kennesaw St…..So yes, Jacksonville St beat nobody, but they crushed them…..Liberty played nobody, and struggled….Liberty has the edge on defense but the Gamecocks have been ok on D in conference play vs turds….Liberty will have success but they’re not the same killer as LY….Jacksonville St QB Tyler Huff is playing at a very high level (654 rush, 8-4 TD to INT, 9.3 YPA) and RB Tre Stewart has been pretty much unstoppable over the last stretch of games….Former Georgia RB Andrew Paul has been a decent contributor recently and the Gamecocks can hit you with big pass plays once in a while…..Let’s see if we can bag a +3 in this game…..It’s unlikely, but possible according to our world-renowned Mob Steam Projection Model.
Holding pattern – Waiting for +3. May still jump in at +1.5/+2/+2.5. Let’s see what happens over the next 24 hours or so.
UPDATE – will wait to see if +3 pops up before 5:30pm today (Wed) and then we’ll make a final call.
UPDATE – no action. Prefer the dog but didn’t get the price we wanted.
14. Old Dominion -2.5 Appalachian St (60.5)…………MEGALOCKS line – Pick ’em
Vegas Implied Score – Old Dominion 31.5 Appalachian St 29
Those KOOKY Old Dominion Monarchs are playing as well as anyone in the FUN BELT right now and they just mutilated Georgia Southern who’s a decent outfit….Appalachian St bagged a 7-point win over Georgia St week and whilst they played pretty well and deserved the win they just couldn’t put the Panthers away….Playing in Boone is a lot more tough for visiting teams when the Mountaineers are playing well…..ODU beat App St at home LY 28-21…..Current form screams “ODU” but we’d rather be catching a few points vs laying them.
No leanage
15. Tulane -16.5 Charlotte (55.5)…………MEGALOCKS line – Tulane -14.5
Vegas Implied Score – Tulane 36 Charlotte 19.5
The Green Wave are one of three undefeated teams in AAC action (Army, Navy) and we view them as the best and most balanced team in the conference….They’re strong on both sides of the football and playing at a high level….We prefer them in this game but we’ve got a wee bit of concern about playing another road game on Thursday after tussling with North Texas on the road just a few days ago…..Charlotte doesn’t stack up statistically (#105 offense, #110 defense) but they have an annoying habit of hanging around….Just ask Memphis.
No leanage
16. Colorado St -1.5 Nevada (45.5)…………MEGALOCKS line – Colorado St -2.5
Vegas Implied Score – Colorado St 23.5 Nevada 22
Nevada has played inspired football this season but they played without starting QB Brendon Lewis in last week’s blowout loss vs Hawaii (34-13) …..He scheduled to return this week but you never know….Keep an eye on his status if you plan on investing in the Pack…..Colorado St is quietly undefeated (!) in MW play but they were fortunate that New Mexico turned the ball over four times last week (W 17-6).
No leanage
17. Fresno St -13.5 Hawaii (48.5)…………MEGALOCKS line – Fresno St -12
Vegas Implied Score – Fresno St 31 Hawaii 17.5
Hawaii got their first win vs an FBS opponent last week over Nevada and they had a season high 242 rushing yards in the process…..Hawaii has been good vs the run but not so much vs the pass and that’s something Fresno St will be able to exploit (#39 passing offense)…..Hawaii is 1-14 SU on the road under HC Timmy Chang…..Our numbers say the dog is getting a smidge of value but the Rainbow Warriors are tough to trust away from home.
No leanage
18. Buffalo -1 Akron (48)…………MEGALOCKS line – Pick ’em
Vegas Implied Score – Buffalo 24.5 Akron 23.5
Boom!….Akron finally got on the board vs an FBS foe last week with an unnecessarily thrilling victory over Eastern Michigan….They led 18-CACK, blew it, and then came back to win….Buffalo had hopes of competing for a MAC title after beating NIU and Toledo (!) but they’re coming off a blowout loss at Ohio (L 47-16) and now have two MAC losses….Now they’re fighting for a bowl bid with a mark of 4-4…..This looks like a coin flip and we’d take +3 on either side…..Sadly, here we are at close to a pick ’em.
No leanage
19. UConn -7.5 Georgia St (48.5)…………MEGALOCKS line – UConn -8.5
Vegas Implied Score – UConn 28 Georgia St 20.5
SEASON WIN TOTAL CLUB got to the window again last week when the Huskies booked win number five….It wasn’t pretty but Rice was their latest victim….Their defense is playing really well (#32 total D, #2 3rd down D) but the offense is struggling a wee bit averaging well under 5 YPP in each of their L3G…..This week Georgia St makes an unusual trip out to the communist stronghold of Storrs, Connecticut and it’s their 3rd consecutive road game and a contest sandwiched between a pair of Sun Belt affairs…..Georgia St’s offense is a bit underrated as they can do a bit on the ground and thru the air….Their issue is a stop unit that has trouble stopping anything (#117 run D, #114 pass efficiency D) whilst failing to get any PENETRATION (9 sacks, last Sun Belt)….We prefer the home team but we’ll see if a -7 pops up….Unlikely, but you never know.
Holding pattern – We’ll see if a -7 shows up and go from there.
UPDATE – no play
20. Mississippi St -18 UMass (59.5)…………MEGALOCKS line – Mississippi St -21
Vegas Implied Score – Mississippi St 38.75 UMass 20.75
We’ll take a bite on the favorite as the Bulldogs have been playing much better on offense since the insertion of Michael Van Buren at QB (309/242/306 pass yards L3G) and note that Mississippi St’s L5 opponents were WOO PIG/Texas A&M/Georgia/Texas/Florida and they only lost to the Aggies and Georgia by 10 (!) points in those games….Miss St has played the #5 schedule whilst UMass has played the #130 docket….Their only two wins came vs FCS teams known as Central Connecticut St and Wagner…..The Minutemen lost to Missouri (a proud member of the SEC) at home by a score of 45-3 just a few weeks ago….Normally, we’d say that motivation could be a question but these guys have to be dying to crush someone.
Lean – Mississippi St -18
-18 is consensus. You can find anything from -17.5 to -19 so shop around.
Posted 2:12pm Oct 29
21. Boise St -23.5 San Diego St (56)…………MEGALOCKS line – Boise St -21
Vegas Implied Score – Boise St 39.75 San Diego St 16.25
The Broncos took down UNLV last week in a yuuuge game and now sit atop the Mountain West standings along with Colorado St and…..wait for it…..San Diego St….All of these teams are undefeated in conference action…..San Diego St keeps improving and note that their L4 games have been decided by 3 points (L), 3 points (W), 3 points (W), and 1 point (L)….They’re not flashy but you have to give them credit for being efficient….The defense has been better than anticipated and they’ve only allowed one opponent to score more than 30 points (Cal, 31)…..Boise St can obviously SCORE the FOOTBALL but it’s not like they can just roll their helmets out there and win by 40 points…….Boise St is #116 in the country in pass efficiency D and #118 in 3rd down D so we see a path for San Diego St to linger…..Let’s see if we can bag a +24 or better.
Holding pattern – Waiting for +24 for go/no-go decision, yo.
UPDATE – no play.
22. Army -22.5 Air Force (41.5)…………MEGALOCKS line – Army -20
Vegas Implied Score – Army 32 Air Force 9.5
Don’t look now but Army just might be on a DATE with DESTINY in terms of the College Football Playoff….They’ve played a soft schedule but they’re 7-0 and have defeated their opponents by a combined tally of 283-87…..They took down a much better Air Force team LY by a score of 23-3 as 17-point underdogs (!) and whilst we believe that they’re laying too many points in this game there’s no way we can back Air Force if they plan on using your boy John Busha at QB (37% completions, 2.2 YPC).
No leanage
23. Navy -11.5 Rice (51.5)…………MEGALOCKS line – Navy -10.5
Vegas Implied Score – Navy 31.5 Rice 20
Tough game to call as whilst Navy is clearly the better team (and undefeated in AAC play) they haven’t looked good the L2G….They only put up 288 yards vs Charlotte (!) two games back and last week they turned the ball over six (!) times vs the Irish….And as well as QB Blake Horvath has played, what’s the deal with the fumbles? …..Does he have a more significant thumb issue than is being reported?….Rice has been playing some disgusting football but they just fired HC Mike Bloomgren and as we saw last week, and as we’ve noted since the DAWN OF TIME, sometimes a switch in HC gives you a short term boost…..We’ll wait until we see who’s starting at QB for Rice before making a final assessment…..Backup QB Drew Devillier looked hideous last week at UConn although the wind was a bit nasty.
No leanage
24. Arizona St -2.5 Oklahoma St (58.5)…………MEGALOCKS line – Pick ’em
Vegas Implied Score – Arizona St 30.5 Oklahoma St 28
This is one of the toughest games on the card and not a matchup that appears to be worthy of an investment…..Oklahoma St has been a TRAIN WRECK in terms of meeting expectations for this season and they lost their only glimmer of hope when new starting QB Garret Rangel (who provided a spark) injured himself (OFY)…..And their defense is trash….but they have HC Mike Gundy who’s one of the best in the business…..HEAD is SPINNING!…..Arizona St has exceeded expectations this season but will starting QB Sam Leavitt be healthy enough to lead the Sun Devils to a road win?
No leanage
25. SMU -7.5 Pittsburgh (58.5)…………MEGALOCKS line – SMU -6.5
Vegas Implied Score – SMU 33 Pittsburgh 25.5
WHOA, NELLIE….Two of the four teams undefeated in ACC play will go head-to-head in Dallas on Saturday night….Both starting QBs are a bit banged up but both appear to be ready to go as we approach press time…..We like the ‘under’ as both defenses are in the top-20 in the nation in YPP defense and Pitt is #1 in ACC games in YPP D (4.31) whilst SMU is #2 (4.84)….Pitt’s totals in conference games have been 54 (with 3 def TD), 32, and 58…..SMU’s totals in conference play have been 55 (OT), 50, 61, and 58….SMU is without their best THROW GAME weapon in RJ Maryland, Pitt has 10 sacks in their L2G, Both teams rank in the top third of the ACC in terms of 20+ yard plays allowed…..A lot is at stake so offenses might be a bit tight early on.
Lean – Under 58.5
Posted 8:45am Oct 30
58.5 is the clear consensus. We’ve seen a few rogue 59s.
26. CORN -6.5 UCLA (40.5)…………MEGALOCKS line – CORN -7
Vegas Implied Score – CORN 23.5 UCLA 17
CORN is a hard team to trust right now as they got pulverized by Indiana two games ago and then last week they gave the greatest team of all-time a real scare…..The Buckeyes needed a 4Q TD to retake the lead and prevail 21-17…..UCLA is coming off a bye and are playing a much better brand of football recently…..They also rank #13 (!) in the nation in run D…..Spread looks about right.
No leanage
27. Virginia Tech -4 Syracuse (53.5)…………MEGALOCKS line – Virginia Tech -3.5
Vegas Implied Score – Virginia Tech 28.75 Syracuse 24.75
Both teams are coming off STINKERS….Yes, Virginia Tech found a way to stick it to LEAN CLUB despite being outgained by Georgia Tech and their collection of backup QBs (outgained by GT 356-233, won 21-6, covered -10/-10.5)….Star RB Bayshul Tuten is a devastating home run threat who should be good to go this week according to the coaching staff after getting nicked up last game….That’s important because Syracuse has been good vs the run (#36) and VT needs a home run threat at RB….QB Kyron Drones is a very talented specimen but he’s been inconsistent…..VT has a bit of a SOFT UNDERBELLY vs the run but the Orange are an air raid team that (in our estimation) fails to utilize stud RB LaQuint Allen enough on offense…..How will QB Kyle McCord rebound after throwing THREE (!) pick 6s in one half (!) vs Pitt last week?…..VT is +10 in net sacks, the Orange are (-2)…..Tough call at the current number.
No leanage
28. Marshall -10.5 ULM (47.5)…………MEGALOCKS line – Marshall -11
Vegas Implied Score – Marshall 29 ULM 18.5
YOUR ULM Warhawks finally came back down to Earth last week with a blowout loss at South Alabama but they’ve still got five (!) wins and they control their own destiny in the Sun Belt West….Obviously, we can’t realistically think they’ll sweep their remaining Sun Belt assignments but all they need is one more win to achieve bowl eligibility……They’ve got a grinding and methodical offense that ultimately does a lot of nothing (#128 total offense) but they’ve only allowed two teams to score more than 21 points…..Marshall is currently in a 3-way tie atop the East division and whilst they’re the more talented team by a significant margin they don’t have much of a THROW GAME (#122 passing) and their defense is mediocre (#101).
No leanage
29. Clemson -10.5 Louisville (63)…………MEGALOCKS line – Clemson -12
Vegas Implied Score – Clemson 36.75 Louisville 26.25
Clemson is off a bye and they’ve been WHITE HOT since their opening loss at Georgia…..They’ve played a bunch of stiffs since then but they’ve destroyed everything in their path and have scored 48/49/29/40/59/66 points in the process….LUA-VUH was fortunate to get past BC in their last outing after trying to give the game away in the first half…..Their three losses have all come vs really good teams (Irish, Miami, SMU) and all of them came by 7 points…..We don’t love the fact that LUA-VUH is playing for the 7th consecutive week whilst Clemson comes into this BAD BOY rested…..Clemson is 6-0 ATS L6 vs the Cards.
Holding pattern – Let’s see if we can book a -10 at some point. -10.5 probably won’t scare us off but we’ll wait it out. -11 would be a pass.
UPDATE – No play
30. North Carolina -2.5 Florida St (51)…………MEGALOCKS line – North Carolina -3
Vegas Implied Score – North Carolina 26.75 Florida St 24.25
Florida St continues to emulate a giant pile of STANK and there doesn’t seem to be much hope on the horizon….The defense is still playing well and it’s gotta be frustrating for those guys to watch the ABOMINATION that is the Seminoles offense….Hideous QB play and they haven’t managed to scrounge up 300Y of offense in any game this season…..It’s tough to back UNC as a fav in this spot but we liked their performance off the bye last week as they demolished Virginia on the road whilst accumulating an impossible 10 (!) sacks…..They’ve got a yuuuge advantage in offensive weaponry….This will almost certainly get added to our list in some fashion….Will wait and see if we can get a cheaper ML later in the week.
Holding pattern as per above.
UPDATE
Lean – UNC -2.5
Posted 4:30pm Nov 1
-2.5 is the consensus. -2s are out there so shop around.
31. USC -2.5 Washington (55.5)…………MEGALOCKS line – USC -1
Vegas Implied Score – USC 29 Washington 26.5
We’ve got a classic “PAC 12” matchup that’s tough to call….USC’s season recently went GLUG GLUG GLUG down the tubes but at least they showed up last week and took down a struggling Rutgers squad…..Washington continues to look good statistically but they can’t GIT R DONE on the scoreboard.
No leanage
32. Iowa St -13.5 Texas Tech (56.5)…………MEGALOCKS line – Iowa St -11.5
Vegas Implied Score – Iowa St 35 Texas Tech 21.5
The Cyclones are one of the most balanced teams in the Big 12 (along with BYU who’s tied with them on top) but we don’t see enough value in the number given the state of Texas Tech’s defense that’s been falling to pieces over the last few weeks…..Iowa St is #4 in the Big 12 in YPP D, Texas Tech is 2nd last.
No leanage
33. Tennessee -16.5 Kentucky (46.5)…………MEGALOCKS line – Tennessee -14.5
Vegas Implied Score – Tennessee 31.5 Kentucky 15
This line is getting a little bit of control even tho Kentucky is starting to fall apart right before our eyes….Injuries haven’t helped but they’ve lost three games in a row by a combined score of 92-43…..And what happened to that stellar defense?….Tennessee has been playing lights out on defense but they’ve only scored 24, 23 (OT), 14, 25 in four SEC contests…..Fav or pass, and we’ll take a seat for now.
No leanage
34. Northwestern -1 Purdue (46.5)…………MEGALOCKS line – Pick ’em
Vegas Implied Score – Northwestern 23.75 Purdue 22.75
We’d love to take a shot with BOILER UP but they do everything poorly (#110 total offense, #123 total defense, #116 t/o margin, #115 3rd downs, #118 3rd downs, #121 penalty yards……should we go on?…..They DO however have an ability to run the football with a mobile QB and a pair of productive RBs……Could that be enough to beat a struggling Northwestern squad?….We think it might be but we’d need a bit more value to support Purdue….Potential inclusion in our Friday ML underdog picks if we can get a +115/+120…..Not likely, but you never know.
No leanage
35. UCF -6 Arizona (56)…………MEGALOCKS line – UCF -6
Vegas Implied Score – UCF 31 Arizona 25
The Knights are struggling mightily as we approach press time having lost five (!) consecutive games….We’re still not sure who’s gonna start at QB but we can expect some good and bad moments from both J Brown and D Rizk…..UCF can still run the football well (#4 FBS) but they struggle thru the air and the status of star WR H Hudson is still up in the air…..The defense still stinks and they don’t have much of a pass rush…..Arizona is also a DUMPSTER FIRE and have lost four consecutive games…..QB N Fifita has a concerning 11-10 TD to INT ratio but they’ve got one of the best WRs in the country in T McMillan (982, 5 TD; 202 yards last game)…..Note that this is the annual SPACE GAME for UCF and they’re 7-0 in these special events beating their opponents by an average of 29 PPG……Could only roll with the home team, THE CITRONAUTS, but will take a pass for now.
No leanage
UPDATE
Lean – UCF -6
Posted 4:30pm Nov 1
-6 is consensus. A few -6.5s are starting to emerge.
36. Oregon -14.5 Michigan (45.5)…………MEGALOCKS line – Oregon -13.5
Vegas Implied Score – Oregon 30 Michigan 15.5
QUACK ATTACK is playing some great football right now and they’ve blown out Purdue and Illinois (allowed 9 total points) after their yuuuge win over Ohio St…..Michigan’s offense continues to be almost impossible to watch without the accompaniment of a BARF BUCKET and the defense has been very good, but not great…..Prefer the Ducks to roll but it’s hard to lay more than 2 TD on the road vs the defending champs, especially in a game where it’s just “survive and advance” for the Ducks.
No leanage
37. Minnesota -3 Illinois (45.5)…………MEGALOCKS line – Minnesota -3
Vegas Implied Score – Minnesota 24.25 Illinois 21.25
It certainly appears to be a bit of a surprise seeing the Gophers lay a FG on the road in this one but they’ve won three games in a row (USC, UCLA, Maryland) and are playing their best football of the season…..Illinois comes back home off a blowout loss at Oregon and have some significant injury concerns…..Playing Michigan and Oregon in back-to-back weeks probably didn’t help…We may include the Illini in our ML Underdog plays on Friday but need to do a bit more digging…….Illinois has won and covered the L3 meetings.
Update
Significant injury concerns for Illinois. Minnesota has the better rushing attack, THROW GAME behind hot QB Max Brosmer, and the better defense.
Official play – Minnesota -3 -108
Sent 4:30pm Nov 1
-3 is listed virtually everywhere.
38. Iowa -3 Wisconsin (40)…………MEGALOCKS line – Iowa -2.5
Vegas Implied Score – Iowa 21.5 WIsconsin 18.5
Wisconsin has won 8L12 skirmishes for the Heartland Trophy and they’ve had no trouble winning the game in Iowa City in recent times…..Overall, Wisconsin is 8-4L12 vs Iowa…..Both teams have gone several weeks without a rest….Iowa is changing QBs to Brendan Sullivan which we like but the Hawkeyes have one superstar RB (Kaleb Johnson) and nobody else that’s rushed for over 200Y….WR/TE weaponry?….They’ve only got one dood (TE Luke Lachey) who has more than 200 (!) receiving yards (207)….Wisconsin has been getting better as the season moves along but how much do they have left in the tank after the tough battle with Penn St last week?
No leanage
39. Indiana -8 Michigan St (52.5)…………MEGALOCKS line – Indiana -6
Vegas Implied Score – Indiana 30.25 Michigan St 22.25
We’ll do the unthinkable and PEE into the WIND on this one and roll with Sparty….The line is more than fairly valued for a Hoosiers team that’s 8-0 SU ** and ATS (!!) and they’ll either be rolling with a starting QB who recently had thumb surgery or a backup QB who’s good but a downgrade….Indiana has played the #91 schedule (Michigan St #21) and they’ve dealt with a VERY easy Big Ten docket…..Maryland, Northwestern, CORN, Washington whilst Michigan St has played an incomprehensible Big Ten schedule….Oregon, Ohio St, Iowa (dominated and won), and Michigan (outgained on the road, lost).
** congrats SEASON WIN TOTAL CLUB
Lean – Michigan St +8
Posted 3:37pm Oct 31
+8 is the clear consensus
40. Texas A&M -3 South Carolina (44)…………MEGALOCKS line – Texas A&M -1.5
Vegas Implied Score -Texas A&M 23.5 South Carolina 20.5
The Aggies roll into Columbia this Saturday as the only (!) team in the SEC that remains undefeated in conference action….Last week they were well on their way to a home loss vs LSU when they did something incredible, something that the greatest DC of all-time Blake Baker could not stop….a “mobile quarterback”, “WHAT IS THIS STRANGE BEAST?”, said LSU DC Mr Baker…..Texas A&M went on to score a bundle of touchdowns and win the game and kill the A&M team total ‘under’ which was very special for LEAN CLUB……..But back to this game…..Our best guess is that we see both QBs for Texas A&M and the Aggies are playing well on both sides of the football, albeit a bit inconsistent on offense….We like the spot for the scrappy Gamecocks who are off a bye and they possess one of the best DLs in the country….Also recall that they came within a whisker of beating both ROLL TIDE and LSU…..Of course, in backing South Carolina you always have to hope that their offense isn’t complete trash like it was vs Ole Miss (#103 total offense; 32 sacks allowed – 2nd worst SEC)…..Preference for the home team but we’ll take a seat for now.
No leanage
41. Coastal Carolina -3.5 Troy (53)…………MEGALOCKS line – Coastal Carolina -5
Vegas Implied Score – Coastal Carolina 28.25 Troy 24.75
Coastal is the better overall team and laying a fair number but they’ve lost two in a row and the QB situation has turned into a bit of a mess….Troy has been a disaster ** (1-7) and they haven’t beaten an FBS team as of yet….However, they’re showing improvement and are almost certainly hungry for a legit “W”…..QB Matthew Caldwell threw for over 300Y in their last second loss at Ark St last week.
** Congrats SEASON WIN TOTAL CLUB ULTRA VIPs
No leanage
42. South Alabama -6 Georgia Southern (60)…………MEGALOCKS line – South Alabama -7
Vegas Implied Score – South Alabama 33 Georgia Southern 27
Both squads are still in the hunt in their respective sides of the FUN BELT conference although South Alabama appears to be hitting their stride….They clobbered Troy and ULM in their last two outings whilst Georgia Southern just yielded an impossible 560 yards of offense to Old Dominion…..Jags QB Gio Lopez has a sparkling 13-1 TD to INT mark and South Alabama rushed for season high 355 yards in last week’s win over the Warhawks…..Prefer the fav, need to noodle it over and double check a few things.
Holding pattern – Close to pulling trigger on South Alabama. Stay tuned!
UPDATE
Lean – South Alabama -6
Posted 9:40am Nov 1
-6 is the clear consensus.
43. Ole Miss -7.5 Arkansas (53.5)…………MEGALOCKS line – Ole Miss -7
Vegas Implied Score – Ole Miss 30.5 Arkansas 23
WOO PIG went nuts last week vs Mississippi St but now they face one of the best defenses in college football without star RB Ja’Quinden Jackson and with a struggling OL….Backup RB Braylen Russell (apparently) injured his hamstring last week but we’ve heard conflicting reports from “he’s fine” to “the darn hamstring exploded into 47 pieces”…..In any case QB Taylen Green has a mediocre 8-4 TD to INT mark and he’s tough to support when playing stout defenses….Previous to the Miss St game WOO PIG scored 10/19/17 points….Ole Miss has underachieved on offense which makes this a tricky game to predict…..And who knows if star WR Tre Harris is gonna give it a whirl?
No leanage
44. Auburn -7.5 Vanderbilt (48)…………MEGALOCKS line – Auburn -8.5
Vegas Implied Score – Auburn 27.75 Vanderbilt 20.25
Our gut tells us that Auburn is due for a good showing after finally get a win last week (at Kentucky) but it’s hard to ignore that they’ve scored just 24/17/13/21/14 points in SEC play….Vanderbilt beat ROLL TIDE and lost to Texas by three points….Also recall that this “Vanderbilt” offense is essentially the same cast of characters and coaches that smoked Auburn LY when they were with New Mexico St…..Will Auburn get BAMBOOZLED again or will they learn from the 2023 debacle?
No leanage
45. Memphis -7 UTSA (61)…………MEGALOCKS line – Memphis -7
Vegas Implied Score – Memphis 34 UTSA 27
The Tigers are in a must-win situation in terms of their AAC hopes as they’ve already got a conference loss (Navy) and there are three undefeated AAC squads as we approach press time (Navy, Army, Tulane)…..The defense is starting to show some cracks as they’ve allowed 28/44 points L2G….UTSA’s D has been very good vs the run (#7 FBS) but a nightmare vs the pass (#120 pass efficiency D) as demonstrated in the 2nd half vs Tulsa last week (L 46-45, blew 42-17 lead)…..Memphis doesn’t have the same level of explosiveness as LY’s squad but they’re the much more balanced team……Prefer the Tigers but we’re not there yet.
No leanage
46. Georgia -15 Florida (52)…………MEGALOCKS line – Georgia -13.5
Vegas Implied Score – Georgia 33.5 Florida 18.5
We definitely like the way the Gators are playing right now as they could easily be on a four-game winning streak if they didn’t pee the game away vs Tennessee…….Georgia is still one of the top-three teams in the country despite being an inconsistent bunch on both sides of the football…We prefer the underdog but don’t like the fact that the Gators are rolling in this yuuuuge game with a true freshman (albeit talented) at QB in DJ Lagway (5-5 TD to INT) and a true freshman (albeit talented, yo) at #1 RB in Jadan Baugh (5 TD last game) assuming that RB Montrell Johnson can’t go….They’ll also be without crafty WR Eugene Wilson……Florida has only played one team with a legit THROW GAME and Miami lit them up, mind you that was back in August.
No leanage
‘Official play’ means that this is one of our favorite plays of the week (perceived value, match-up, coaching, trends, etc.). We’re currently investing 25% more on these plays vs our ‘leans’. We’ll normally have two or three of these choices per week.
‘Lean’ means that we’re placing a standard size wager on the game. We’ll normally have about ten of these plays per week. Many members prefer to pick and choose amongst these games when finalizing their weekly investment cards so we’ll continue to refer to them as ‘leans’.
‘No leanage’ means that we won’t have any action on the game.
Team totals – We’ll list the implied number based on the point spread and total when our analysis is posted. If a team total ends up being an ‘official play’ we’ll post a widely available number at the time of pick release.