Week 11 – Georgia at Ole Miss
posted November 8
The Game
WHOA, NELLIE.
This is one of the most anticipated regular season games of the year as Georgia travels to Oxford to battle the potent Ole Miss Rebels. The Georgia Bulldogs have been a “disappointment” to some folks and we find that funny since they’re still one of the best teams in the country and they’ve already booked a road win at Texas. Ole Miss is fighting for their CFP lives this week but they know if they can take down mighty Georgia they are a virtual shoe-in to make the 12-team playoff (Florida, Mississippi St L2G).
Let’s goooo!
The Details
Georgia -2.5 Ole Miss (56)
MEGALOCKS LINE – Georgia -1
“Vegas” Implied Projected Score: Georgia 29.25 Ole Miss 26.75
Georgia offense vs Ole Miss defense
The Dawgs have been an inconsistent bunch on offense this year and the problems have been twofold. QB Carson Beck has done a poor job of protecting the football (17-11 TD to INT; 24-6 LY) and the rushing attack has been stagnant (#97 FBS rushing; L3Y 20/19/36). The good news for Georgia is that whilst they don’t have the same THROW GAME weaponry as LY, the OL has done a very good job in pass protection for most of the campaign (302 team attempts, 10 sacks allowed). Ole Miss has been devastating on defense (#23 total D, #2 run D, #38 pass efficiency D) and they lead the nation in sacks with an impossible total of 41 (!) as we approach press time. Georgia will definitely make some plays down the field as Ole Miss is #11 in the SEC in 20+ yard pass plays allowed but we don’t see them having consistent success in this game.
Ole Miss offense vs Georgia defense
The Rebels have moved like a TREMENDOUS MACHINE thanks in large part to the super-efficient play of QB Jaxson Dart (3,210, 21-3 TD to INT, 11.6 YPA) and Ole Miss is coming off a game in which they scored 63 points and put up almost 700 (!) yards vs WOO PIG. The Rebels boast the #1 passing offense in the nation but we still don’t know whether star WR Tre Harris and WR Jordan Watkins (5 TD last week) will be able to go in this one. #1 RB Henry Parrish is out for this game so it’ll be interesting to see how much success Ole Miss can have on the ground vs a stout Georgia run D (#21). The Bulldogs are also good vs the pass (#26 pass efficiency D) and they tallied 7 sacks vs Texas so the Rebels aren’t gonna have an easy time of it on Saturday afternoon. However, over the span of four quarters it seems to be a near certainty that Dart will find a way to get the ball to his talented playmakers and watch them do some damage.
Trends, Intangibles, and More!
The Rebels are 4-8 ATS vs Georgia and even more troubling for Ole Miss fans is HC Lane Kiffin’s record in big SEC games…..We are YUUUUUGE Kiffin fans at MEGALOCKS HQ but that’s just a fact we all have to deal with…..Facts don’t care about your feelings, yo….Both teams can be comfortably placed in the “undisciplined” category….Ole Miss is #131 in penalty yards per game whilst Georgia ranks #118.
Summary
This is clearly Lane Kiffin’s best team yet and it’s the first time he’s had a defense that’s in the same area code as what Georgia regularly puts on the field. They’ve also got explosive weaponry at WR/TE and the more efficient QB. We suspect that at least one of Harris/Watkins will be ready to roll, because if that wasn’t the case, we believe the spread would be -3 or higher. Then again, who knows these days when it comes to college football injuries.
Conclusion
We’ll have an Ole Miss-related play sometime today. At a minimum, they’ll be a member of the ML Underdog Five Pack posted this afternoon.
UPDATE – Ole Miss is on the ML Underdog list. We’ll pass on the side and total.
‘Official play’ means that this is one of our favorite plays of the week (perceived value, match-up, coaching, trends, etc.). We’re currently investing 25% more on these plays vs our ‘leans’. We’ll normally have two or three of these choices per week.
‘Lean’ means that we’re placing a standard size wager on the game. We’ll normally have about ten of these plays per week. Many members prefer to pick and choose amongst these games when finalizing their weekly investment cards so we’ll continue to refer to them as ‘leans’.
‘No leanage’ means that we won’t have any action on the game.
Team totals – We’ll list the implied number based on the point spread and total when our analysis is posted. If a team total ends up being an ‘official play’ we’ll post a widely available number at the time of pick release.