Week 11 QUICK TAKES – College Football Predictions
Here are some QUICK TAKES on the games that did not make the cut for a longer write-up this week.
Let’s go!
UPDATE 10:30am Friday
We’re still sifting thru some options as noted below. We’ll have things finalized by 5pm.
One more game to go – Ole Miss/Georgia biggie size write-up coming around noon. We’ll have three biggie size posts next week.
UPDATE 4:45pm Friday
We’re done for the week. Enjoy the games and have a great weekend!
Handy index: Quick Takes
‘Official’ picks in blue. ‘Leans’ in green. Waiting on a number or information to make a potential play in orange.
- Bowling Green at Central Michigan (Tuesday)
- Miami Ohio at Ball St (Tuesday)
- Ohio at Kent St (Wednesday)
- Northern Illinois at Western Michigan (Wednesday)
- Purdue at Ohio St
- Mississippi St at Tennessee
- Florida at Texas (added Nov 7)
- Oklahoma at Missouri
- Kennesaw St at UTEP
- ROLL TIDE at LSU
- Maryland at Oregon
- South Carolina at Vanderbilt
- Liberty at MTSU
- Nevada at Boise St
- Florida St at Notre Dame
- Temple at Tulane
- Clemson at Virginia Tech
- Virginia at Pittsburgh
- Western Kentucky at New Mexico St
- Syracuse at Boston College
- Duke at NC State
- Appalachian St at Coastal Carolina (Thursday)
- FAU at East Carolina (Thursday)
- Miami at Georgia Tech
- California at Wake Forest (Friday)
- Iowa at UCLA (Friday)
- Georgia St at James Madison
- Navy at South Florida
- San Jose St at Oregon St
- Colorado at Texas Tech
- BYU and Utah
- Army at North Texas
- UConn at UAB
- Arkansas St at Louisiana
- UNLV at Hawaii
- Michigan at Indiana
- Rice at Memphis (Friday)
- Oklahoma St at TCU
- UCF at Arizona St
- Fresno St at Air Force
- Washington at Penn St
- Iowa St at Kansas
- Utah St at Washington St
- Minnesota at Rutgers
- Texas St at ULM
- Jacksonville St at Louisiana Tech
- Marshall at Southern Miss
- New Mexico at San Diego St (Friday)
- West Virginia at Cincinnati
QUICK TAKES
1. Bowling Green -12 Central Michigan (49)…………MEGALOCKS line – Bowling Green -11
Vegas Implied Score – Bowling Green 30.75 Central Michigan 18.25
Bowling Green is still very much in the MAC hunt but they can’t afford any more slip ups…..They’re the much better team in this event but FIRE UP CHIPS have played close games 4L5 times out (4/2/1/3 point margins of victory)….The yuuuge concern for Central Michigan in this spot is the QB situation as due to injuries they’re down to something called “Tyler Jefferson”….Oh, and they’re also ranked #108 in run D and #114 in pass efficiency D….The Falcons are #97 in run D so maybe the Chips can get things going on the ground and pull of some midweek MACtion magic?…..Road team is 5-0 ATS L5 in the series…..Would only get involved if the number got to -10 and there’s almost a zero percent chance of that happening…..Yet, we’ll still be watching our screens.
No leanage
2. Miami Ohio -11.5 Ball St (49.5)…………MEGALOCKS line – Miami Ohio -10.5
Vegas Implied Score – Miami Ohio 30.75 Ball St 18.75
The Redhawks are becoming WHO WE THOUGHT THEY WERE and appear to be peaking at just the right time…..However, they’re also a team that can’t afford another conference loss thanks to their previous defeat at the hands of Toledo….Their performance on 3rd downs on both sides of the football has been poor (#120 offense, #101 defense) and they struggle to run the football consistently….Ball St’s defense is complete TRASH (#128) but they’ve found a way to stay competitive in several games and this is the RED BIRD RIVARLY where anything goes.
Holding pattern – Waiting for +13 for potential SWEET ACTION.
UPDATE – It doesn’t look like we’ll get the +13. The weather forecast still looks gross (see Weather blog post) and that won’t help Miami Ohio get separation.
3. Ohio -18.5 Kent St (52)…………MEGALOCKS line – Ohio -17
Vegas Implied Score – Ohio 35.25 Kent St 16.75
Not a game we’ll be participating in from an investment standpoint….Ohio is one of a few teams tied for 2nd place in the MAC pecking order (Miami Ohio, Bowling Green) and this is as close to a FREE SQUARE as you will see in MAC play when it comes to the 2024 Kent St Golden Flashes….Unfortunately our “go price” would be -16.5 and here we are.
No leanage
4. Northern Illinois -1.5 Western Michigan (52.5)…………MEGALOCKS line – Pick ’em
Vegas Implied Score – Northern Illinois 27 Western Michigan 25.5
This might be the most interesting handicap of the entire MAC season so far…..Northern Illinois plays fantastic defense (#6 FBS total D, #24 run D, #34 pass eff D), allows 17.6 (!) PPG, and they haven’t allowed anyone to score more than 25 points on them all season…..Sadly, the Huskies QB situation is literal TRASH but at least they can run the ball (#21)….And then there’s the explosive Broncos who’ve scored 52/48/34/45 L4G but those vs were MAC BOTTOM FEEDERS……Western Michigan’s defense is horrible (#117 total D, #100 run D, #119 pass eff D) and they rely on the offense to do their thing and win them the game…..NIU is out of the MAC picture but fighting for bowl eligibility (4-4) whilst the Broncos sit alone atop the MAC with an undefeated conference mark….NIU is 10-5 ATS L15 in the series…..Our fav play is WM team total ‘over’ but it probably won’t make the card as their offense gets a bit bogged down when playing top notch Ds.
No leanage
5. Ohio St -38 Purdue (54)…………MEGALOCKS line – Ohio St -37
Vegas Implied Score – Ohio St 46 Purdue 8
Ohio St can name the score in this BAD BOY and we don’t see any reason to guess whether they’ll win by 27, 37, 47, or 57.
No leanage
6. Tennessee -24 Mississippi St (61)…………MEGALOCKS line – Tennessee -21.5
Vegas Implied Score – Tennessee 42.5 Mississippi St 16.5
Mississippi St is dead last in the SEC in almost every significant defensive category but they’ve found a way to move the football behind QB Michael Van Buren…..Tennessee is still very much in the hunt for a CFP berth and whilst their stop unit is one of the best in the SEC they’ve only scored 28/24/23/14/25 in their five conference games…..It’ll help playing Mississippi St but this is a lot of lumber to lay if you like the favorite…..The Vols have a yuuuge matchup at Georgia next week…..Prefer the dog but we’re not on this one yet.
No leanage
7. Texas -21.5 Florida (48)…………MEGALOCKS line – Texas -19
Vegas Implied Score – Texas 34.75 Florida 13.25
This looks like a few too many points to lay if you like the Longhorns but we’ll note that the Gators emptied the tank last week vs Georgia and they also (very likely) lost starting QB DJ Lagway….We’re not interested in backing the Gators with a 3rd string QB on the road at Texas even though they’ve been playing inspired football for a number of weeks.
Note – If DJ Lagway looks like he might play and the line drops we’ll consider backing the Longhorns.
No leanage
UPDATE
Lean – Texas -22.5
Posted 6:24pm Nov 7
-22.5 is consensus. Anything from -22 to -23 is available. Shop around.
8. Missouri -2 Oklahoma (42.5)…………MEGALOCKS line – Missouri -1
Vegas Implied Score – Missouri 22.25 Oklahoma 20.25
Oklahoma has started to look better on offense now that Jackson Arnold is back at QB (5-0 TD to INT L3G) and the defense is still one of the best in the SEC…..However, pass protection is a yuuuge concern for the Sooners (19 sacks allowed vs L2 FBS opponents) but thankfully Missouri doesn’t have much of a pass rush….Missouri starting QB Brady Cook has looked very average this season and he’s been banged up since the Auburn game…..Oklahoma’s L3 SEC games have come vs Ole Miss, SC, and Texas so this is definitely a step down in class…..Missouri is off a bye (which helps Brady Cook) whilst Oklahoma is off a “get right” game vs Maine….We’ll see if a +3 pops up and go from there as we prefer the underdog in this game.
Holding pattern – Hoping for a +3.
UPDATE – Missouri is almost certainly going with a backup QB or two. Line has moved to Oklahoma -3. We might be on the Sooners by the end of the week.
UPDATE – Major injury updates in favor of Oklahoma. They get two of their top WRs back in Deion Burks and Jalil Farooq. Their active sack leader Ethan Downs is back. Missouri is going with their backup QB who is a massive downgrade. They may also be without their starting RB Nate Noel although we think he might go. Oklahoma is 5-4 and with ROLL TIDE and LSU to end the season they need this one to make a bowl game. Our revised line is Oklahoma -3.5.
It’s not unthinkable that Missouri’s starting Brady Cook has a miracle recovery but he’s only thrown 7 TD passes all year.
Official play – Oklahoma -3 -108
Sent 4:53 pm Nov 8
-3 is listed virtually everywhere.
9. UTEP -4 Kennesaw St (42)…………MEGALOCKS line – UTEP -5.5
Vegas Implied Score – UTEP 23 Kennesaw St 19
Easy game to throw in the trash bin from an investment perspective….Both teams are among the worst in the country….UTEP failed miserably last week at home vs MTSU….Kennesaw St is struggling mightily in their first season as an FBS program but they did find a way to hand Liberty their first regular season loss since 2022.
No leanage
10. ROLL TIDE -3 LSU (58.5)…………MEGALOCKS line – ROLL TIDE -2
Vegas Implied Score – ROLL TIDE 30.75 LSU 27.75
Yes, guy.
It’s one of our favorite sporting events of the calendar year no matter the circumstances…..ROLL TIDE is on life support in terms of making the SEC title game but they’re still a LOCK for the CFP if they win out…..LSU only has one SEC loss (two overall) and they will still make the CFP if they win out and/or win the SEC…..They’ve only got one conference loss as we approach press time….This is a tough game to read due to the fact that ROLL TIDE is boom or bust on offense and they’ll be going up against a lethal LSU pass rush that’ll surely put them behind the chains at times…..And Alabama leads the MILKY WAY in stupid penalties…:From an LSU standpoint, they’re going up against the #14 (!!) run defense in the SEC but they don’t have the RB corps to take advantage of it…..Their THROW GAME is devastating behind QB Garrett Nussmeier but ROLL TIDE is #14 in the nation in pass efficiency D (9-11 TD to INT) despite not having much of a pass rush…..Alabama’s star WR Ryan Williams doesn’t have a 100-yard effort since the Georgia game…..LSU allowed a pair of teams with mobile QBs to go nuts on the ground (SC 243 yards, Texas A&M 245)…..Can’t pick a side yet and the total looks about right…..ROLL TIDE was won 10L12 SU.
No leanage
11. Oregon -25 Maryland (57.5)…………MEGALOCKS line – Oregon -27
Vegas Implied Score – Oregon 41.25 Maryland 16.25
This game is eerily similar to the Ohio St game…..Oregon is playing at an elite level right now but there’s no need to destroy the Terrapins when they’ve got bigger fish to fry down the road.
No leanage
12. South Carolina -3.5 Vanderbilt (46.5)…………MEGALOCKS line – South Carolina -6
Vegas Implied Score – South Carolina 24.75 Vanderbilt 21.25
Vanderbilt has come thru for our SEASON WIN TOTAL CLUB but more importantly, they’re off to a bowl game for the first time since 2018….That automatically puts them in a letdown spot as they’ve already achieved their season goal and have also taken down ROLL TIDE along the way….The Commodores haven’t reached the 300-yard (!) barrier in terms of total offense in any of their L3 SEC games and they’re going up against a WHITE HOT South Carolina defense that’s ranked #7 in the country in YPP….South Carolina has played the #2 (!) schedule according to the Sagarin ratings (Vanderbilt #30) and the COCKS have a devastating 1-2 punch running the football in QB LaNorris Sellers and RB Rocket Sanders…..The Gamecocks are 7-0 SU L7 at Vanderbilt and 4-0 ATS L4.
Official pick – South Carolina -3.5 -108
Sent 5:00pm Nov 4
-3.5 was listed virtually everywhere when the pick was sent out. Our MOB STEAM indicator suggests that this line has a 70% chance of going to -4 or higher so if you agree with the analysis and pick you should probably act sooner rather than later. As always, your wagers and how much you wager, and if you wager, and what you do in your spare time, and if you get a DEATH BOOSTER, and how many masks you wear is your call and your business.
13. Liberty -10.5 MTSU (54)…………MEGALOCKS line – Liberty -11
Vegas Implied Score – Liberty 32.25 MTSU 21.75
The Flames are essentially DEAD TEAM WALKING in CUSA as they’ve lost two conference games in a row and one of those defeats came at the hands of Kennesaw St (!)….MTSU has won 2L3 games (Kennesaw St, UTEP) but this is a step up in class for the Blue Raiders who have a record of 3-6….Not a game we’ll get involved in, yo.
No leanage
14. Boise St -24.5 Nevada (60.5)…………MEGALOCKS line – Boise St -23
Vegas Implied Score – Boise St 42.5 Nevada 18
Boise St appears to be on a DATE with DESTINY and the CFP as they’re pummeling the competition seemingly on a weekly basis and their only loss all season came on the road at Oregon (!) by three points….On the surface this game looks a lot like the Boise St/San Diego St game from last week where the Broncos whooped the Aztecs 56-24…..Nevada has proven to be a scrappy bunch this season although the tank may be running empty as they’ve dropped three games in a row.
No leanage
15. Notre Dame -25 Florida St (42.5)…………MEGALOCKS line – Notre Dame -24
Vegas Implied Score – Notre Dame 34.25 Florida St 8.25
The Florida St season is mercifully coming close to a conclusion as they sit at 1-8 with three games to go…..They’re on track to become the first time in the history of mankind to go from 13 wins down to TWO victories in the span of one year assuming they lose to Notre Dame and Florida and manage to beat something called Charleston Southern Elementary School **….The defense is still playing pretty well especially when you consider that they’ve been constantly put in horrible spots by the offense….Notre Dame is in the position of winning out and making the CFP whether you like it or not as it’ll be nearly impossible to keep out an 11-1 Notre Dame team no matter how pathetic their schedule has been and regardless of if they lost to Northern Illinois or not ^^….Florida St’s defense could keep them within the number if they score 10 points but that’s a coin-toss at best.
** current spread is Florida St -1.5
^^ they did
No leanage
16. Tulane -26.5 Temple (49.5)…………MEGALOCKS line – Tulane -24.5
Vegas Implied Score – Tulane 38 Temple 11.5
Tulane is moving like a TREMENDOUS MACHINE since conference play began and they’re one of two teams tied atop the AAC standings (Army)….The Green Wave are our clear #1 team in the AAC power ratings and an impossible fade right now but Temple has been scrappy from time to time, particularly with Evan Simon at QB.
No leanage
17. Clemson -6.5 Virginia Tech (53)…………MEGALOCKS line – Clemson -7
Vegas Implied Score – Clemson 29.75 Virginia Tech 23.25
We circled this game back in the early summer months believing that it would be a yuuuge battle in the ACC played in front of a hostile crowd cheering on an excellent Hokies squad….Fast forward to today and it’s a bit disappointing….Clemson was upset by LUA-VUH and they’re on the brink of watching their season go GLUG GLUG GLUG down the tubes in terms of an ACC title and a CFP berth…..However, the Tigers are still a talented bunch and they’ve outgained every opponent since the Georgia game…..QB Cade Klubnik has a fine 21-3 TD to INT mark but the defense has been mediocre by Clemson’s lofty standards, particularly vs the run (#59; LY #22)….Virginia Tech was right in the thick of the ACC hunt before falling in OT at Syracuse last week and now their season is essentially KAPUT….And it’s unknown at this point in time whether or not QB Kyron Drones and/or star RB Bhayshul Tuten will be available.
No leanage
18. Pittsburgh -7.5 Virginia (57.5) …………MEGALOCKS line – Pittsburgh -8.5
Vegas Implied Score – Pittsburgh 32.5 Virginia 25
PFFFFFFFFFFFFFT…….That sound was the air coming out of the Pitt Panthers balloon after they got smoked at SMU last time out….Their ACC dreams took a yuuuge hit as YOUR Miami Hurricanes are still undefeated in conference play as are the Mustangs who now hold a tiebreaker over Pitt…..How will Pitt react off that loss?….Well they definitely have the firepower with the THROW GAME (#17 FBS passing offense) and RB Desmond Reid, and be aware that the defense will get after the QB…Pitt allows a lot of yards through the air tho and Virginia can hurt you with QB Anthony Colandrea and his assortment of weaponry….We prefer the Panthers to take care of business but it should be noted that this is essentially a MUST WIN game for Virginia and they’re off a bye….The Cavs sit at 4-4 and need two more wins to make a bowl game…..They’ve got the Irish, SMU and Virginia Tech up next (!).
No leanage
19. Western Kentucky -18 New Mexico St (52)…………MEGALOCKS line – Western Kentucky -20
Vegas Implied Score – Western Kentucky 35 New Mexico St 17
We like the Hilltoppers in this spot and they’re the best team in CUSA (slightly ahead of Jacksonville St in our estimation)….They’ve taken care of business over the L3G winning by 17/17/24 and New Mexico St is trash….The only scary part of backing WKU in this game is that New Mexico St can run the ball and run a lot of clock (like Kennesaw St did when they lost by 17 to WKU)….The Aggies have a wretched defense and will get destroyed if they turn the ball over and their QB situation is disgusting….There’s a -17.5 at a prominent shop so maybe we can get a -17 at some point? Unlikely, but who knows, it’s only Tuesday….We’ll probably still take it at -18…If it goes any higher, NO BUENO, we are out. Stay tuned!
Holding pattern as per above.
UPDATE – no leanage
20. Boston College -2 Syracuse (53)…………MEGALOCKS line – Syracuse -1
Vegas Implied Score – Boston College 27.5 Syracuse 25.5
We prefer Syracuse in this spot as even though they’re ON THE HIGHWAY in the communist outpost of Chestnut Hill, note that BC has been outgained by every (!) FBS opponent since their opening week win over the GARBAGE HEAP that is Florida St…..Syracuse can move the ball thru the air with QB Kyle McCord and they’re decent vs the run on defense…..Boston College is scrappy but they don’t have the offensive weaponry to keep up if Syracuse plays a clean game……IF they play a clean game, unlike the DEBACLE that unfolded when they went to Pitt and gave up three pick sixes in the first half…..The dog is 11-3 ATS L14 in the series…..Still debating what we’re gonna do with this game and it might be that we throw the Orange in our ML Underdog parlays on Friday…..If the game moves to a pick ’em we won’t get involved at all. Stay tuned!
Holding pattern as per above.
UPDATE – no play; Still a possibility for the ML underdog list on Friday if they still offer “+” money.
21. NC State -3 Duke (52.5)…………MEGALOCKS line – NC State -3.5
Vegas Implied Score – NC State 27.75 Duke 24.75
We’ll take a taste of the ‘over’ in this BAD BOY as both teams have WHITE HOT QBs with a combined 31-12 TD to INT mark and both teams have improved significantly on offense….The totals in the last two Duke games were 84 and 55 and they allowed close to a total of 1,000 yards in those contests….NC State just put up 59 points vs Stanford last week off the bye and their defense isn’t very good.
Lean – Over 52.5
Posted 5:11pm Nov 5
52.5 is consensus. You can find a 52. There are also a few 53/53.5s so shop around.
22. Coastal Carolina pk Appalachian St (62.5)…………MEGALOCKS line – Appalachian St -1
Vegas Implied Score – Coastal Carolina 31.25 Appalachian St 31.25
It’s been great to see the men from Boone, NC get back on the beam and win a couple of games in front of the home crowd but now they’ve gotta go ON THE HIGHWAY to face a Coastal Carolina squad that just got beat by Troy…..Coin toss game in which both 4-4 teams are fighting for their bowl lives.
No leanage
23. East Carolina -7.5 FAU (57.5)…………MEGALOCKS line – East Carolina -7
Vegas Implied Score – East Carolina 32.5 FAU 25
We had high hopes for the ARRRRRRRRRRRR Pirates this season but they’ve been a disappointment (4-4)….They smoked Temple after firing their HC and now do battle with a struggling Owls squad (2-6) who may be looking to make a change of their own at HC at some point in the near future…..It’s tough to lay a TD+ with the ARRRRRRRRRRRR Pirates as they’ve allowed 34/45/55 L3G and still rank at the bottom of the FBS in terms of turnovers (21)(!).
No leanage
24. Miami -11 Georgia Tech (57.5)…………MEGALOCKS line – Miami -12.5
Vegas Implied Score – Miami 34.25 Georgia Tech 23.25
YOUR Miami Hurricanes are 9-0 and looking to hold serve the rest of the way in order to be assured of a spot in the ACC title game….They’ve got a the #1 offense in the country in terms of yards (557)(!) and PPG (47.4) and the defense, whilst giving up a lot of big plays, is still pretty decent (#19 total defense, #8 run D, #18 pass efficiency D)….The Yellow Jackets are very scrappy on defense but will need QB Haynes King to play in this one if they want to be competitive….We prefer Miami but will see if we get any clarity on King’s status during the week….He’s currently listed as day-to-day.
Holding pattern as noted above.
UPDATE – no leanage
25. California -7 Wake Forest (55)…………MEGALOCKS line – California -8
Vegas Implied Score – California 31 Wake Forest 24
Both of these squads have records of 4-4 and are fighting for bowl eligibility….We like Cal in this spot as they’ve got the much better stop unit (#25 total D, #9 run D, #11 pass efficiency D) that’s only allowed 7/24/17/14/10/14/13 points in their seven games excluding the Miami loss…..Wake’s defense is trash, particularly vs the pass and Cal has the edge (slight) at QB…..Cal is traditionally much better at home under HC Justin Wilcox but they came within a whisker of beating Pitt ON THE HIGHWAY earlier this season (L17-15).
Holding pattern – We’ll wait to see if a -6.5 shows up and go from there.
UPDATE – no leanage
26. Iowa -6 UCLA (44.5)…………MEGALOCKS line – Iowa -6
Vegas Implied Score – Iowa 25.25 UCLA 19.25
Don’t look know but the Bruins have won two in a row (at Rutgers, at CORN) and are playing their best football of the season….They’ve also played the #1 (!!) schedule in the nation according to the Sagarin ratings and they’re excellent vs the run (#11 FBS)….Iowa has one of the best RBs in college football in Kaleb Johnson (1,279, 19 TD!) but their AIR ATTACK is non-existent (#129 FBS) which makes this a decent matchup for the Bruins….UCLA struggles on offense (#124 total offense, #134 rush) and that makes them a tough team to back.
No leanage
27. James Madison -15.5 Georgia St (53.5)…………MEGALOCKS line – James Madison -14
Vegas Implied Score – James Madison 34.5 Georgia St 19
The Panthers are on a 5-game (!) skid as we approach press time and whilst they appear to be a good-looking fade this week note that those five losses came vs teams that could/should all make a bowl game (UConn/App St/Marshall/ODU/Ga Southern)…..Oh, and they also beat Vanderbilt…..The issue in backing them this week is that this will be their 4th consecutive (!!) week playing on the road (without a bye week)….James Madison has underachieved in FUN BELT play (two losses) this year but they’re off a bye.
No leanage
28. Navy -3 South Florida (58)…………MEGALOCKS line – Navy -1
Vegas Implied Score – Navy 30.5 South Florida 27.5
We’ll roll with the underdog in this spot as Navy’s offense has hit the skids…..288 yards vs Charlotte….310 yards and six (!) turnovers vs Notre Dame….260 yards last week vs Rice….We noted a few weeks ago that Navy QB Blake Horvath appears to be struggling with one or both thumbs and here we are…..South Florida is starting to get some mojo now that new starting QB Bryce Archie is getting more comfortable under center….USF has played ROLL TIDE, Tulane, Memphis, and Miami whilst Navy has played the #123 docket.
Lean – South Florida +3
Posted 5:08pm Nov 6
+3 is listed virtually everywhere
29. Oregon St -3 San Jose St (55)…………MEGALOCKS line – Oregon St -2.5
Vegas Implied Score – Oregon St 29 San Jose St 26
The Beavers are a mystery item but the one thing we know is that they’ve been competitive with teams in their weight class….They drilled San Diego St, beat Purdue by 17, and took care of a sneaky-tough Colorado St team (W 39-31)…..San Jose St has been decent enough but the last time we saw them they got smoked by Fresno St….Line looks about right.
No leanage
30. Colorado -3.5 Texas Tech (62.5)…………MEGALOCKS line – Colorado -1.5
Vegas Implied Score – Colorado 33 Texas Tech 29.5
This is a yuuuuuge game in the Big 12….Colorado has survived the CARNAGE that has befallen so many teams in the conference and they’re right in the mix….Texas Tech will need some help to get to the Big 12 title game but if they win out you never know….Both teams have electric offenses….Texas Tech doesn’t play much defense…..but they’ve got a nice home field advantage….Too close to call but the Red Raiders are on the short list to appear on our AWARD-WINNING ML underdog list on Friday.
No leanage
31. BYU -4 Utah (40.5)…………MEGALOCKS line – BYU -5.5
Vegas Implied Score – BYU 22.25 Utah 18.25
The HOLY WAR is always a must-watch event and there’s no doubt that BYU is the better squad heading into this match-up….They’re 8-0 and alone atop the Big 12 standings and they play a very physical brand of football…..Utah’s season has been a total disaster but the ONLY thing left to achieve is a win over their hated rivals from Provo…..We don’t love the uncertainty at QB for the Utes, that’s for sure…..Utah has won 10L12 meetings and they’re 8-4 ATS.
No leanage
32. Army -5.5 North Texas (63.5)…………MEGALOCKS line – Army -4
Vegas Implied Score – Army 34.5 North Texas 29
Army is one of two undefeated teams in the AAC (Tulane) and they’re 8-0 overall…..North Texas has an explosive offense (#3 FBS, 528 YPG) but a horrid defense (#121, 449 YPG)….We can’t pick a side in this one given the unknown status of Heisman-caliber QB Bryson Daily who unexpectedly missed the Air Force game last week….He’s currently listed as “between probable and questionable” but you can’t trust much of anything when it comes to college football injury news, particularly from a service academy….National security, yo.
No leanage
33. UConn -6.5 UAB (56.5)…………MEGALOCKS line – UConn -7
Vegas Implied Score – UConn 31.5 UAB 25
Yes, guy……The Connecticut Huskies achieved their #1 season goal last week when they took down Georgia St and became bowl eligible….That was their last home game of the season and now they head ON THE HIGHWAY to face a UAB team that was playing some of the worst football imaginable until they woke up last week off the bye week and POLEAXED Tulsa by a score of 59-21….QB Jalen Kitna has been WHITE HOT the last two weeks (404/384 pass yards, 8-1 TD to INT) but the stop unit is still TRASH…..Prefer the Huskies but it’s a horrible spot going on the road off the YUUUUGE win last time out.
No leanage
34. Louisiana -16 Arkansas St (60.5)…………MEGALOCKS line – Louisiana -13.5
Vegas Implied Score – Louisiana 38.25 Arkansas St 22.25
The Red Wolves have escaped by the skin of their teeth in a few games and sit with a mark of 5-3 whilst the Cajuns have been rolling (7-1)….Louisiana is the best team in the FUN BELT according to our ratings but the line has gone a wee bit too far in our estimation….The Cajuns have won their four conference games by 6/10/10/10 points and they have trouble stopping the run (#82 FBS)…..The Red Wolves have gotten the ground game rolling L3G (185/281/171) and they can do a bit of damage thru the air as well….Arkansas St’s defense is gonna have trouble stopping Louisiana but catching more than two TDs feels like a decent move….Note that this is battle for FIRST PLACE in the West division so we expect a max effort from both teams including the double-digit underdog.
Lean – Arkansas St +16
Posted 9:55am Nov 7
+16 is consensus but it’s a split market +15.5 and +16 so shop around.
35. UNLV -13.5 Hawaii (49.5)…………MEGALOCKS line – UNLV -12
Vegas Implied Score – UNLV 31.5 Hawaii 18
UNLV is in MUST WIN mode as there are a pair of undefeated teams in the Mountain West (Boise, Colorado St) and they would be in deep DOO DOO should they pick up another conference loss….Hawaii has been disappointing on offense but their defense has been sneaky good….They held Fresno St to 20 points in their road upset of the Bulldogs last week and rank #40 in the nation in total defense and #34 vs the run….We’ll wait and see if a +14 pops up although we doubt it.
Holding pattern – Waiting for +14 which is highly unlikely, but not impossible.
UPDATE – no leanage
36. Indiana -14 Michigan (50)…………MEGALOCKS line – Indiana -12.5
Vegas Implied Score – Indiana 32 Michigan 18
Surprise surprise….There appears to be some “value” with the underdog taking on the Hoosiers but Indiana continues to destroy everyone in their path (259-99 in conference play; Michigan 119-151) and they’ve got the #1 run D (!) in the country which makes Michigan’s path to covering the number a bit ominous.
No leanage
37. Memphis -9.5 Rice (51)…………MEGALOCKS line – Memphis -11
Vegas Implied Score – Memphis 30.25 Rice 20.75
Our ratings suggest that Memphis is the play in this game but this is a really tough spot to back them as they are now DEAD TEAM WALKING having suffered their 2nd AAC loss last week vs UTSA and don’t forget that they had CFP hopes before the season started…..Rice got a nice win over Navy last week and they’ve allowed 260/309/306 total yards L3G.
No leanage
38. TCU -11.5 Oklahoma St (66.5)…………MEGALOCKS line – TCU -13
Vegas Implied Score – TCU 39 Oklahoma St 27.5
YIKES…..Oklahoma St is in a world of HURT right now having lost six consecutive games…..This looks anything but a Mike Gundy team but here we are….Thankfully for the Pokes, TCU is giving up close to 30 PPG in conference play and they’re coming off a last tough last second loss at Baylor where there Big 12 dreams were officially put in the ground…..Could only go with the Horned Frogs in this one but the price isn’t cheap laying almost 2 TDs.
No leanage
39. Arizona St -3 UCF (56)…………MEGALOCKS line – Arizona St -4
Vegas Implied Score – Arizona St 29.5 UCF 26.5
We’d like to back the scrappy Sun Devils in this spot who’ve been one of the most pleasant surprises in the nation this season (6-2) but the status of their all-Universe RB Cam Skattebo (1001 rush yards, 11 TD, 27 receptions) is “questionable to doubtul” as we approach press time…UCF was WHO WE THOUGHT THEY WERE last week and they destroyed Arizona 56-12 in the annual SPACE GAME behind new starting QB Dylan Rizk….Tough travel spot for the Knights and now the Sun Devils have some film on the new man in charge of the offense.
No leanage
40. Fresno St -10.5 Air Force (40.5)…………MEGALOCKS line – Fresno St -10
Vegas Implied Score – Fresno St 25.5 Air Force 15
The Bulldogs’ Mountain West hopes went GLUG GLUG GLUG down the toilet last week when they were upset at home by Hawaii and now they’ve got head from California to a late night cold weather situation in Colorado Springs….The good news for Fresno St is that the Air Force offense is still totally disgusting (#131 total offense, #133 scoring offense) (!) and outside of the New Mexico game they’ve scored 3/13/7/19/3/7 in six games vs FBS teams.
No leanage
41. Penn St -13.5 Washington (46.5)…………MEGALOCKS line – Penn St -12
Vegas Implied Score – Penn St 30 Washington 16.5
“Here we go again. Again.” <Tugg Speedman, Scorcher VI – Global Meltdown>
Yup, Penn St dropped another game to Ohio St last week but the good news is that because their schedule is CAKE they should have no problem making their way into in the CFP…..Washington has looked good “in the stats” most weeks in terms of total yards/total yards allowed but they’ve come up short in terms of SCORING the FOOTBALL and note that their last three Big Ten road affairs went poorly with losses to Rutgers, Iowa, and Indiana…..Not crazy about laying almost 2 TDs with Penn St but Washington isn’t gonna be on our dance card either this Saturday.
No leanage
42. Iowa St -3 Kansas (50)…………MEGALOCKS line – Iowa St -3.5
Vegas Implied Score – Iowa St 26.5 Kansas 23.5
We’d love to back the Cyclones in this spot as they’re right in the thick of the Big 12 chase and one of the top-three teams (on paper) in the conference but we don’t like the match-up for Iowa St in terms of the Kansas rushing attack (#18 FBS, 211 YPG) and the Iowa St run D (#93)…..Thankfully for Iowa St, the Jayhawks have found interesting ways to lose all season (2-6) and they’re #93 in the nation in passing efficiency thanks to the mediocre play of QB Jalon Daniels.
No leanage
43. Washington St -20.5 Utah St (70)…………MEGALOCKS line – Washington St -23
Vegas Implied Score – Washington St 45.25 Utah St 24.75
The Cougars are SHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHH………..QUIETLY sitting at 7-1 with their only loss coming at Boise St….They come into this BAD BOY off a bye week and they’ll be fresh and ready to go behind one of the most underrated dual-threat QBs in college football in John Mateer (575 rush, 10 TD; 18-6 TD to INT)….Their defense has allowed 414/300/338 yards L3G so whilst it’s not a good stop unit to say the least, they’re not horrible……Utah St might have the worst defense on the planet (#131 total D, #131 run D, #121 pass efficiency D) and note that they allowed 49 points in the first half (!) vs Boise St and 41 points in the first half to UNLV…..not to mention allowing 45 points to Temple….Utah St’s best weapon WR Jalen Royals is out for the season and he missed last game as well….Utah St only scored 27 points vs Wyoming without him last week and Royals booked 40 receptions and an impossible 666 (!) receiving yards in the four games prior to his injury…..He was a YUUUUGE part of the offense so it’s unlikely that Utah St can manufacture some SWEET BACK DOOR ACTION once they’re down 83-10 at the half **.
** Fact check: Hopefully.
Lean – Washington St -20.5
Posted 4:18pm Nov 7
-20.5 is listed virtually everywhere
44. Minnesota -6 Rutgers (46)…………MEGALOCKS line – Minnesota -5
Vegas Implied Score – Minnesota 26 Rutgers 20
You have to love the BROTHERS IN COMMUNISM BOWL…..Minnesota came thru for us last week on the road at Illinois and they’ve been a sneaky good team for most of the season….They’re still limited on offense tho and with a bowl bid already in the bag (6-3) we don’t feel comfortable laying this price on the road vs a team who’s fighting for their bowl eligibility lives (4-4) and we were impressed with how they competed last time out vs USC on the road.
No leanage
45. Texas St -8 ULM (50)…………MEGALOCKS line – Texas St -9.5
Vegas Implied Score – Texas St 29 ULM 21
ULM will crawl over BROKEN GLASS to get to a bowl game (5-3) and they’ve got a solid run game and defense….Also note that Texas St’s dreams of a FUN BELT title and (we know it sounds crazy, but it’s true) a potential CFP berth are now GLUG GLUG GLUG down the tubes….We’d like to back the Warhawks but would want +10 and here we are.
No leanage
46. Jacksonville St -10 Louisiana Tech (56)…………MEGALOCKS line – Jacksonville St -11
Vegas Implied Score – Jacksonville St 33 Louisiana Tech 23
Jacksonville St has been absolutely cooking on the ground over the L5G putting up 363/438/334/384/273 (!!) rushing yards….Louisiana Tech has one of the best defenses (maybe the best?) in CUSA but this is gonna be a severe test for a stop unit that’s ranked #14 (!) in the nation and #28 vs the run.
No leanage
47. Marshall -13.5 Southern Miss (53.5)…………MEGALOCKS line – Marshall -15
Vegas Implied Score – Marshall 33.5 Southern Miss 20
Southern Miss is one of the worst teams in the country (1-7) but they haven’t been completely destroyed in conference play….Losses by 17/16/17/10 to teams with a combined record of 12-5 in FUN BELT games…..Marshall will be able to go nuts on the ground but it might be hard to get the necessary separation without a reliable THROW GAME…..Fav or pass and we’ll take a seat for now.
No leanage
48. San Diego St -2.5 New Mexico (65.5)…………MEGALOCKS line – San Diego St -3
Vegas Implied Score – San Diego St 34 New Mexico 31.5
The Lobos’ hopes for a bowl bid took a nasty detour to TURD TOWN last week as they blew the game at home vs Wyoming…..They’ve got one of the most devastating rushing attacks in the nation (#8, 249 YPG) and note that QB Devon Dampier and RB Eli Sanders both rushed for over 200 yards (!) last week….Sadly, New Mexico’s defense is disgusting (#130 total D, #130 run D, #127 pass efficiency D) and this is a drop in class for the Aztecs who are coming off battles with Boise St and Washington St who have a combined record of 14-2…..We’ll likely add San Diego St to the card on Friday but still need to do a bit of work and decide between -2/-2.5 and ML.
Holding pattern as per above.
UPDATE
Lean – San Diego St -2.5
Posted 9:15am Nov 8
-2.5 is consensus but there are plenty of -2s out there so shop around. The ML is at -133/-135 consensus and we support that option as well. We don’t like posting MLs at -135 as “leans” but as always, it’s your call. You do you.
49. Cincinnati -4.5 West Virginia (54.5)…………MEGALOCKS line – Cincinnati -3.5
Vegas Implied Score – Cincinnati 29.5 West Virginia 25
The Mountaineers will be going with backup QB Nicco Marchiol in this one but starting QB Garrett Greene wasn’t taking good care of the football (9-8 TD to INT)…..He was however a devastating runner (471, 6.2, 3 TD) and that makes us wonder just a little bit if the Mountaineers can have the rushing attack that they need to cover this BAD BOY…..Marchiol is a mobile but not as deadly with his legs….The good news is that he’s a much better passer….Cincinnati has done nothing wrong this season but their defense has been a bit suspect (#102 total D, #90 run D, #108 pass efficiency D)…..WV’s pass D is horrendous (#128 pass efficiency D) and they don’t get much heat on the QB…..WV leads the series 17-3-1…..Prefer the dog but not sold yet…..It’ll be one of the final decisions we make this week.
Holding pattern as per above.
UPDATE – no leanage
‘Official play’ means that this is one of our favorite plays of the week (perceived value, match-up, coaching, trends, etc.). We’re currently investing 25% more on these plays vs our ‘leans’. We’ll normally have two or three of these choices per week.
‘Lean’ means that we’re placing a standard size wager on the game. We’ll normally have about ten of these plays per week. Many members prefer to pick and choose amongst these games when finalizing their weekly investment cards so we’ll continue to refer to them as ‘leans’.
‘No leanage’ means that we won’t have any action on the game.
Team totals – We’ll list the implied number based on the point spread and total when our analysis is posted. If a team total ends up being an ‘official play’ we’ll post a widely available number at the time of pick release.