Week 12 QUICK TAKES – College Football Predictions
NOTE: As per the Monday update email, IF we add any futures plays they will be listed HERE as well as on the Futures blog post. Hedging activities related to Season Win Totals (highly unlikely) will be listed HERE as well as on the Season Win Total blog post. You can find links to those pages in the Monday update email or you scan thru the blog section.
FRIDAY UPDATE – NO FUTURES OR HEDGES THIS WEEK. SAME RULES FOR NEXT WEEK.
Here are some QUICK TAKES on the games that did not make the cut for a longer write-up this week.
Let’s go!
UPDATE 8:50am FRIDAY – Five more games to go. We’ll have all the games written up including two more biggie size write-ups by 3pm today. Two send-out picks by 5pm. Card finalized by 5pm including ML Underdogs. Enjoy the games!
UPDATE 3:25pm FRIDAY – We’re done for the week. Don’t forget to check out the three biggie size write-ups. GL, PLAY SAFE, and enjoy the games!
Handy index: Quick Takes
‘Official’ picks in blue. ‘Leans’ in green. Waiting on a number or information to make a potential play in orange.
- Ohio St vs Northwestern
- Penn St at Purdue
- ULM at Auburn
- FAU at Temple
- Akron at Northern Illinois (Wednesday)
- Kent St at Miami Ohio (Wednesday)
- USF at Charlotte
- Arkansas St at Georgia St
- Central Michigan at Toledo (Tuesday)
- Western Michigan at Bowling Green (Tuesday)
- Liberty at UMass
- Southern Miss at Texas St
- Louisville at Stanford
- Eastern Michigan at Ohio (Wednesday)
- Virginia at Notre Dame
- Ball St at Buffalo (Tuesday)
- Houston at Arizona (Friday)
- Utah at Colorado
- San Diego St at UNLV
- Arizona St at Kansas St (added Friday)
- Washington St at New Mexico
- UAB at Memphis
- Wake Forest at UNC
- Wyoming at Colorado St (Friday)
- Hawaii at Utah St
- New Mexico St at Texas A&M
- East Carolina at Tulsa (Thursday)
- Boston College at SMU
- Cincinnati at Iowa St
- North Texas at UTSA (Friday)
- Sam Houston at Kennesaw St
- UCLA at Washington (Friday)
- Kansas at BYU
- Syracuse at California
- Texas at WOO PIG
- Rutgers at Maryland
- Louisiana Tech at Western Kentucky
- FIU at Jacksonville St
- CORN at USC
- Oregon at Wisconsin
- Michigan St at Illinois
- Clemson at Pittsburgh
- Coastal Carolina at Marshall
- Troy at Georgia Southern
- Oregon St at Air Force (added Friday)
- Boise St at San Jose St
- Missouri at South Carolina
- LSU at Florida
- James Madison at Old Dominion
- Tulane at Navy
QUICK TAKES
1. Ohio St -30.5 Northwestern (44.5)…………MEGALOCKS line – Ohio St -28.5
Vegas Implied Score – Ohio St 37.5 Northwestern 7
The Buckeyes are looking sharp and coming off a 45-CACK blowout win over the CORPSE of Purdue…..Northwestern needs two more wins to make a bowl game and that means they’ll need to beat both Michigan (A) and Illinois (H) after they get torched by Ohio St….Then again, they may get into bowl season with a mark of 5-7 thanks to their “academic” record ** if there aren’t enough 6-6 teams….Ohio St has the YUUUGE game with Indiana up next.
** also known as communist brainwashing
No leanage
2. Penn St -28.5 Purdue (50.5)…………MEGALOCKS line – Penn St -27
Vegas Implied Score – Penn St 39.5 Purdue 11
Purdue continues to embarrass the GREAT STATE OF INDIANA on a regular basis but thankfully the Hoosiers are making up for the DEBACLE that is Boilermaker football….Penn St can name the score but they haven’t been blowing out all the turds on their schedule like they normally do….Penn St HC James Franklin would run over a barrel full of kittens ** to cover a point spread so this game is probably favorite or pass.
** Fact check: No evidence to the contrary as we approach press time.
3. Auburn -24 ULM (46)…………MEGALOCKS line – Auburn -22
Vegas Implied Score – Auburn 35 ULM 11
Auburn has been a major disappointment this season (3-6) but they’ve deserved a few more wins in our opinion if not for the drooling incompetence at QB and the remarkable ability to fold in the most critical moments of games….RB Jarquez Hunter is still a BEAST and ULM’s offense is gonna have trouble moving the ball….Thankfully for ULM, their defense is no joke and they’re very well coached….Raw talent advantage for Auburn is just too much to allow us to back the Warhawks.
No leanage
4. Temple -2.5 FAU (50.5)…………MEGALOCKS line – FAU -1.5
Vegas Implied Score – Temple 27 FAU 24.5
FAU has the more talented roster with a decent rushing attack (#60 FBS) but they just lost starting QB Cam Fancher for the season due to injury…..Backup QB Kasen Weisman doesn’t look like a bad option to us but as flaky and unpredictable as Fancher was under center he was definitely TOUGH and CRAFTY…..The Owls’ season is KAPUT so maybe the change at QB gives them a spark?…Temple appears to be somehow getting worse as the season moves along but this is a winnable game and they’re at home…..50/50 coin toss in our view.
No leanage
5. Northern Illinois -15 Akron (46)…………MEGALOCKS line – Northern Illinois -16.5
Vegas Implied Score – Northern Illinois 30.5 Akron 15.5
Northern Illinois is WORLD FAMOUS after their win at Notre Dame earlier this season but they’ve been a disappointment in MAC play as they’re out of the race and now just playing to get that sixth win and a bowl bid….They looked sharp last week vs Western Michigan (W 42-28) but lost the week prior to Ball St (!)…..Akron has played better than their 2-7 record indicates and in their L4G they lost to Buffalo by 11, beat Eastern Michigan, lost to Western Michigan by 10, and lost to Bowling Green by 10.
No leanage
6. Miami Ohio -30 Kent St (46)…………MEGALOCKS line – Miami Ohio -31
Vegas Implied Score – Miami Ohio 38 Kent St 8
The Redhawks are in a four-way atop the MAC standings and get a final breather before they finish the regular season with yuuuuge battles vs NIU and Bowling Green….Kent St is playing like a disgusting heap of garbage which is a shame because they were 22-21 (!!) from 2019-2022 under our boy Sean Lewis…..Miami Ohio can name the score we but don’t see why they would want to put anything more than 70% effort into this one.
No leanage
7. USF -3 Charlotte (53)…………MEGALOCKS line – USF -2.5
Vegas Implied Score – USF 28 Charlotte 25
Neither team is worth looking at from an investment standpoint as the Bulls looked like they might be turning things around and then they got smoked by Navy last time out whilst rushing for just 60 (!) yards….Charlotte has the 2nd worst offense in the AAC and the #10 ranked defense….Talent edge to the Bulls, Charlotte is the scrappier outfit that’ll probably care more about playing this game.
No leanage
8. Georgia St -2 Arkansas St (59)………….MEGALOCKS line – Georgia St -1
Vegas Implied Score – Georgia St 30.5 Arkansas St 28.5
Tough game to call as Georgia St is DEAD TEAM WALKING (2-7) and they’ve lost six games in a row….Arkansas St is 5-4 but one of the most inconsistent teams in the FUN BELT…..They’re 5-4 and need one more win to get to a bowl game….Note that the Red Wolves have lost four games (Michigan, Iowa St, Texas St, Louisiana) but they’re 5-0 vs teams in their weight class…..Georgia St falls into that category.
No leanage
9. Toledo -14.5 Central Michigan (50.5)…………MEGALOCKS line – Toledo -13
Vegas Implied Score – Toledo 32.5 Central Michigan 18
We see a bit of “value” in the dirty dog in this matchup as Toledo hasn’t been WHO WE THOUGHT THEY WERE during MAC play and with two conference losses (and six wins) they’re essentially playing out the string until their bowl game….In their L4 MACtion events they beat EM by 1, got blown out by Bowling Green, scored 13 points in a win over NIU, and lost by 15 to Buffalo….Central Michigan is one of the worst teams in the conference but they can run the ball which is important for underdogs in this price range and they only lost by 10 to BG last time out….Their QB situation is very dicey and that’s the only thing keeping us off FIRE UP CHIPS for now.
No leanage
10. Bowling Green -8 Western Michigan (58.5)…………MEGALOCKS line – Bowling Green -7.5
Vegas Implied Score – Bowling Green 33.25 Western Michigan 25.25
This could very well be an elimination game in the MAC as two of the four teams with one conference loss do battle on Tuesday night……The Broncos have a lethal rushing attack (209 YPG, #2 MAC) that averages 5.6 YPC (#13 FBS) and they’ve put up 192+ on the ground vs everyone except Ohio St and Wisconsin….Bowling Green is ranked #94 (!) in the nation in run D so we think Western Michigan can hang around if they don’t make mistakes in the THROW GAME….Last week they were almost even in the yardage battle vs NIU but they were (-2) in turnover margin……The Western Michigan defense leaves a lot to be desired but Bowling Green is #6 in the MAC in rushing offense and #5 in passing….They’re averaging just 25 PPG in MAC play despite playing Central Michigan/Akron/Kent St ; ….The road team is 6-3 ATS L9 in the series.
Lean – Western Michigan +8
Posted 6:35pm Nov 11
+8 is consensus. It moved from +8.5 as the analysis was being finalized but you can still find that better number if you shop around.
11. Liberty -14 UMass (52)…………MEGALOCKS line – Liberty -13.5
Vegas Implied Score – Liberty 33 UMass 19
Liberty won comfortably over the dead body of MTSU last week but they’re essentially out of the CUSA race and we have to question their motivation heading deep into communist territory to play a scrappy UMass team that’s played solid defense if you extract the two games vs SEC foes from the dataset….UMass will be playing with a new starting QB and we actually think that gives the Minutemen more upside in the THROW GAME….The line is DEAD ON BALLS ACCURATE ** but we slightly prefer the underdog.
** an industry term
No leanage
12. Texas St -26.5 Southern Miss (55.5)…………MEGALOCKS line – Texas St -24.5
Vegas Implied Score – Texas St 41 Southern Miss 14.5
The Bobcats are almost certainly gonna win BIGLY given the horrid state of the Southern Miss program but we were hoping for a number closer to -23 and here we are….Note that Texas St starting QB Jordan McCloud is dealing with an ankle issue and whilst it appears as though he’ll start he hasn’t had much work over the last two games.
No leanage
13. Louisville -20 Stanford (58)…………MEGALOCKS line – LUA-VUH -17.5
Vegas Implied Score – LUA-VUH 39 Stanford 19
The Cardinals are the much more talented squad and Stanford is just a heap of TRASH at this point having lost six in a row after the road win over Syracuse….The problem is that we don’t see any value to back LUA-VUH and it’s a long trip out west….And don’t forget how sleepy and bored LUA-VUH looked on the road vs Boston College in the first half.
No leanage
14. Ohio -10 Eastern Michigan (49.5)…………MEGALOCKS line – Ohio -8
Vegas Implied Score – Ohio 29.75 Eastern Michigan 19.75
It seems as though more people than we thought realize that Ohio is a serious player in the MAC race….They’re another one of the four teams tied atop the MAC standings and have been playing a very good brand of football (#2 MAC YPP offense, #4 YPP defense)….Eastern Michigan doesn’t wow you on the stat sheet but they’ve won five games and HC Chris Creighton is one of the best in the country ATS in the role of road dog (35-16, 69%) (!)….Gut says Ohio, the number favor the Eagles.
No leanage
15. Notre Dame -22.5 Virginia (50.5)…………MEGALOCKS line – Notre Dame -20
Vegas Implied Score – Notre Dame 36.5 Virginia 14
The Fighting Irish are moving like a TREMENDOUS MACHINE and destroying teams on the regular….They’ve won their last 4G by a combined score of 186-37 (!) and they’ve gotta keep rolling if they wanna slither into the CFP…..Virginia has enough talent to give them a game for at least a half and maybe more and they just took care of a one-loss Pitt team on the road.
No leanage
16. Buffalo -4 Ball St (54.5)…………MEGALOCKS line – Buffalo -4
Vegas Implied Score – Buffalo 29.25 Ball St 25.25
We’ll take a taste of the ‘over’ in this one as the Buffalo’s offense is starting to cook (41 points twice in L2G) and they’ve allowed 48/47/30 L3G….Ball St has a below-average MAC defense and their offense will appreciate the drop in class after playing the defenses of Miami Ohio, Northern Illinois, and Vanderbilt L3G….Weather looks perfect for this time of year.
Lean – Over 54.5
Posted 9:00am Nov 12
54.5 is consensus. A few 55s have started to pop up.
17. Arizona -1.5 Houston (44.5)…………MEGALOCKS line – Pick ’em
Vegas Implied Score – Arizona 23 Houston 21.5
The Wildcats have been a disaster this season and they’re on a 5-game losing skid….The good news is that whilst Houston has been better than anticipated this is still a drop in class for Arizona after playing UCF/WV/Buffs/BYU/Texas Tech in their previous 5G….Houston has taken down Utah and Kansas St (!) in their L2G so they would be the GUN TO THE HEAD selection in this one if forced to choose a side…..We were hoping to see a +3 on the Cougars but here we are…..Houston has potential to appear on the ML Underdog list posted on Friday. <grabs popcorn>
No leanage
18. Colorado -10 Utah (47)…………MEGALOCKS line – Colorado -9
Vegas Implied Score – Colorado 28.5 Utah 18.5
Don’t look now but the Buffaloes are sitting alone in 2nd place in the Big 12 and if they win out, they’re going to the conference title game…..Colorado is playing their best football right now with a high-octane passing attack and dangerous pass rush (24 sacks L5G)….Utah lost a heartbreaker to BYU last week (L22-21) which was probably their last chance to salvage the season….At least Utah has bit of hope now on offense with new starting QB (dual-threat) Brandon Rose leading the way and note that the Utes are #1 (!) in the country in 3rd down defense (24%) and #8 in pass efficiency D….Maybe they can get a few clutch stops and stay within double digits?…..Recall that Utah WHOOPED DAT AZZ last time they visited the communist bastion of Boulder back in 2022….They won by a score of 63-21…..Have to think the Buffs will tack on some points IF they get the chance…..Prefer the home team but we are not gonna lay -10.
No leanage
19. UNLV -21 San Diego St (55)…………MEGALOCKS line – UNLV -19
Vegas Implied Score – UNLV 38 San Diego 17
The Aztecs disappointed us last week as they couldn’t get anything going on offense vs one of the most hideous defenses on the planet (New Mexico)…..UNLV escaped with their lives at Hawaii last week and are in survival mode trying to earn a rematch with Boise St in the MW title game…The Rebels will cruise but the price isn’t cheap to back them this week.
No leanage
20. Kansas St -9 Arizona St (50)…………MEGALOCKS line – Kansas St -8.5
Vegas Implied Score – Kansas St 29.5 Arizona St 20.5
Kansas St looks to bounce back off their shocking loss to Houston and we’ll see if the bye week helps get their heads on straight….The Wildcats are still one of the best teams in the Big 12 and they’re #3 in the conference in rushing, #1 in stopping the run, and they’ve faced a much tougher Big 12 docket than Arizona St…..The Sun Devils get full credit for being right in the thick of the conference mix but it’s a tough assignment to compete in Manhattan in November and they still might be without star RB Cam Skattebo….Kansas St HC Chris Klieman is 18-9 ATS at Kansas St (2-2 this year) as a home favorite….We prefer Kansas St in this game but need to do a bit more digging and hopefully get a better number later in the week….Our MOB STEAM INDICATOR says there’s only a 10% chance that the line hits -10, and if that happens, we’ll be on the sidelines for sure. Stay tuned!
Holding pattern as per above.
UPDATE
Lean – Kansas St -7.5
Posted 3:25pm Nov 15
-7.5 is listed virtually everywhere
21. Washington St -12.5 New Mexico (72)…………MEGALOCKS line – Washington St -11
Vegas Implied Score – Washington St 42.25 New Mexico 29.75
The Cougars got the money by the skin of their teeth at home last week when they defeated Utah St 49-28 (-20.5) and this is a similar matchup in the respect that New Mexico can SCORE the FOOTBALL but they’ve got a brutal defense….The Lobos are fighting for their bowl eligibility lives (4-6) so we should see a 100% max effort at home….Overall talent edge goes to Washington St but this game looks fairly priced.
No leanage
22. Memphis -14 UAB (62.5)…………MEGALOCKS line – Memphis -15.5
Vegas Implied Score – Memphis 38.25 UAB 24.25
Our ratings say to roll with Memphis but as we’ve said many times it’s difficult to invest in DEAD TEAM WALKING at this point of the season as the Tigers were expected to win the AAC by many folks and even have a shot at the CFP…..UAB blew the game vs a very good UConn outfit last week (led 20-3) and they’ve played three of their best games of the year in a row…..Outgained USF by 130 yards (lost), pulverized Tulsa, and outgained UConn last week…..Memphis HC Ryan Silverfield continues to be a BIGLY money-burner ATS as home chalk.
No leanage
23. North Carolina -11 Wake Forest (64)…………MEGALOCKS line – North Carolina -10
Vegas Implied Score – North Carolina 37.5 Wake Forest 26.5
We were hoping for a number below -10 but the market was not having any of that nonsense…..UNC is on the upswing and they’ve beaten their last two opponents by a combined tally of 76-25….Wake Forest is in the same area code as the teams that the Tar Heels recently smoked (Virginia, Criminoles) but the price isn’t cheap to back the home team…..UNC is 7-4 ATS L11 vs the Demon Deacons….We may come back to this BAD BOY but no play for now.
No leanage
24. Colorado St -10 Wyoming (48)…………MEGALOCKS line – Colorado St -8.5
Vegas Implied Score – Colorado St 29 Wyoming 19
It’s something that some people don’t want to talk about….Very similar to how today nobody will admit that they once believed that the government cared deeply about their health and that a random cloth mask could stop a virus…..Colorado St is undefeated in conference play and they could very easily run the table and make the UNLV Rebels OBSOLETE in terms of the Mountain West race….So yes, UNLV is no shoe-in for a rematch with Boise St…Colorado St has won four in a row and Wyoming is DEAD TEAM WALKING….They won’t be appearing in a bowl game (2-7)….The bad news for the Rams is that this is a bitter rivalry game known as the BORDER WAR and Wyoming has won 11L15 meetings….This is the Cowboys’ bowl game and they’re coming off a win over a potent New Mexico squad…..We prefer Colorado St but only at -7 or better and here we are.
No leanage
25. Hawaii -2.5 Utah St (60)…………MEGALOCKS line – Hawaii -1.5
Vegas Implied Score – Hawaii 31.25 Utah St 28.75
Hawaii is the better team in our estimation and they just gave UNLV all they could handle (L 29-27)….But as we’ve said many times on these pages….Hawaii is not a team that we like to back ON THE HIGHWAY as they’re just 2-14 SU away from home under HC Timmy Chang and that includes a road win over Fresno St this year…..Utah St can SCORE the FOOTBALL but their defense is PURE FILTH.
No leanage
26. Texas A&M -40 New Mexico St (54)…………MEGALOCKS line – Texas A&M -37
Vegas Implied Score – Hawaii 31.25 Utah St 28.75
The Aggies control their own destiny in the SEC and “all they have to do” is beat Auburn and Texas in back-to-back games to end the regular season…..One loss and who knows? If that happens maybe they can still weasel into the SEC title game on a tiebreaker?…..First they have to wipe the floor with New Mexico St who will put up little to no resistance as they can be annoyingly competitive at home vs Group of Five teams but going ON THE HIGHWAY to face a top-notch SEC squad might be a little too much….Still prefer the dog a bit but don’t plan on getting down as of yet.
No leanage
27. East Carolina -14 Tulsa (62)…………MEGALOCKS line – East Carolina -14
Vegas Implied Score – East Carolina 38 Tulsa 24
The ARRRRRRRRRRR Pirates have destroyed a pair of turds since their HC was fired and scored 49/56 points in the process…..Tulsa is another MONDO DOOK that East Carolina should be able to smoke…..Tulsa has been decent vs the run but totally disgusting vs the pass (9.4 yards/attempt; dead last FBS)….Our only concern with backing the ARRRRRRRRRR Pirates is that they’ve only scored 28/24/24/20 in their four road games….But then again, that was before the coaching change and before Katin “Total Recall” Houser took over at QB (13-4 TD to INT)…..Still thinking about this game, if the line goes higher then we’ll take a pass and move on.
Holding pattern as per above.
UPDATE – ARRRRRRRRRRRRRR no leanage.
28. SMU -17 Boston College (54)…………MEGALOCKS line – SMU -15.5
Vegas Implied Score – SMU 35.5 Boston College 18.5
The Mustangs remain the only undefeated team in ACC play after YOUR Miami Hurricanes SHAT the BED last week vs Georgia Tech….The offense has put up 458 yards or more in each of their last five games and the defense has been very stout vs the run (90 YPG, #5 FBS)…That’s gonna make it very hard vs Boston College to get much done in this game and who knows what’s going on with their QB situation?….Prefer SMU but this is a lot of points in a game that SMU would be happy to win by one point…..Just kidding…..Not really.
UPDATE – BC starting QB T Castellanos is out; Backup G James looked good in limited action last week but recall he got beat out for the starting gig at FIU.
No leanage
29. Iowa St -9.5 Cincinnati (53.5)…………MEGALOCKS line – Iowa St -7.5
Vegas Implied Score – Iowa St 31.5 Cincinnati 22
Iowa St’s season has unexpectedly gone GLUG GLUG GLUG down the tubes after losing a pair of games in a row, although we will say that if they turn things around in a major way and win out they’ve got a shot at slithering into the Big 12 title game….Actually, Iowa St’s L3Gs have been very sketchy and they allowed 45/23/35 in those contests….Cincinnati is a very balanced squad and they somehow lost to West Virginia last week despite outgaining the Mountaineers 436-248 (!)….That’s what allowing a pair of defensive scores will do to your chances of winning #STUDY…..The line is inching up towards -10 and let’s see if it gets there for a potential play on the underdog.
Holding pattern as per above.
UPDATE – no leanage
30. North Texas -2 UTSA (72.5)…………MEGALOCKS line – UTSA -2
Vegas Implied Score – North Texas 37.25 UTSA 35.25
We’ll roll with the home underdog in this game as the Roadrunners can at least play a bit of defense (#4 run D FBS)(!) and North Texas struggles to run the ball (#80) particularly with a handful of injured players at RB…..North Texas is horrendous overall on defense (#119 total D, #113 run D, #92 pass efficiency D) and they’ll have to get an incredible game out of QB Chandler Morris (10 INTs) to win this game….That’s not impossible given how disgusting UTSA’s secondary has been (#119 pass efficiency D) but we trust UTSA to get a few more stops….UTSA QB Owen McCown as an 8-0 TD to INT mark L2G, UTSA is off a bye, and the Roadrunners are 5-1 ATS/SU at home vs the Mean Green….Also worth noting that UTSA is 27-3 (!) SU at home L30.
Lean – UTSA +2
Posted 1:15pm Nov 13
+2 is listed virtually everywhere
31. Sam Houston -14.5 Kennesaw St (42.5)…………MEGALOCKS line – Sam Houston -13.5
Vegas Implied Score – Sam Houston 28.5 Kennesaw St 14
The Owls have been getting a bit better as the season rolls along as in their L3G they beat Liberty (!), lost to WKU by 17, and took UTEP to OT….Sam Houston hasn’t been the same since starting QB Hunter Watson got banged up (105/131/165 rush yards L3G) but he appears healthy and ready to go this week…..Will he be able to pick up where he left off?….Kennesaw St got rid of their HC after the loss to UTEP and who knows how they’ll react but WE DO know that teams often get a short term bump in performance when the HC gets toasted…..That’s happened a few times already this year…..Clear talent edge for Sam Houston but not a game we’re gonna get involved in.
No leanage
32. Washington -4 UCLA (46.5)…………MEGALOCKS line – Washington -3.5
Vegas Implied Score – Washington 25.25 UCLA 21.25
We’d be more than happy to back UCLA at a price of +6 or better (which is what we were hoping for on open) but here we are….They’ve really impressed us over the last several weeks and their run defense is flat out nasty (98 YPG, #7 FBS)….Washington will be able to move the ball thru the air and they’ve got the more balanced offense….UCLA doesn’t scare you on offense but QB Ethan Garbers has an 8-2 TD to INT mark L3G….Sadly he’ll be going up against the #5 pass efficiency D in the nation…..Tough call at this price point.
No leanage
33. BYU -3 Kansas (56)…………MEGALOCKS line – BYU -4.5
Vegas Implied Score – BYU 29.5 Kansas 26.5
Yes, guy….The Cougars escaped a near disaster last week in the HOLY WAR vs Utah (W 22-21) and they still alone sit atop the Big 12 standings and boast an overall undefeated record of 9-0….They don’t WOW you statistically on offense but they’ve got #1 RB LJ Martin back (two 100-yard games L3), boast a pair of excellent WRs (Roberts, Lassiter) and have a crafty QB in Jake Retzlaff (17-7 TD to INT, 291 rush yards)….They can be run upon on defense tho (#68 FBS) and that gives Kansas a very legit shot at pulling the upset (#13 rushing FBS) as they’ve booked 200+ yards in 2L3 games….Our big concern for the Jayhawks is QB Jalon Daniels trying to throw into the BYU secondary (#3 pass efficiency D) but hopefully for Kansas they can avoid 3rd and long for most of the game…..Kansas needs to win out to make a bowl game, BYU is in the HEAVY IS THE CROWN situation and are certainly feeling some pressure….Tough call at this price point.
No leanage
34. California -8 Syracuse (56)…………MEGALOCKS line – California -6.5
Vegas Implied Score – California 32 Syracuse 24
The Golden Bears are 5-4 and one win away from clinching a bowl bid and they’ve scored 90 total points in their L2G….Syracuse is starting to spiral out of control having lost to Pitt and BC in two of their L3 games and whilst Cal is a poor running team note that the Orange allowed 313 rush yards vs BC and 249 vs the Hokies L2G…..QB Kyle McCord is gonna have to go bananas in this game and that’s not impossible given that Miami and Wake Forest torched the otherwise solid Cal secondary…..The line looks a bit high but it’s an ugly travel spot for Syracuse.
No leanage
35. Texas -13.5 Arkansas (57.5)…………MEGALOCKS line – Texas -13
Vegas Implied Score – Texas 35.5 Arkansas 22
WOO PIG is coming off a bye week and the last time we saw them they were getting TORCHED by Ole Miss in a 63-31 defeat in Fayetteville…..The line movement suggests that QB Taylen Green will be good to go and despite his inconsistency he’s one of the most dangerous dual-threat QBs in the country…..The key for their offense will be the ability to run the ball and it remains to be seen if star RB Ja’Quinden Jackson can give it a go and/or if talented freshman Braylen Russell is available….Texas has one of the best stop units in the FBS (#2 total defense, #28 run D, #1 pass efficiency D) but they’ve played a horrible set of offenses on the whole this year…..Texas will be able to put up big yards in the THROW GAME especially with the return of BOND, ISAIAH BOND at WR (looked good last week) but WOO PIG has been decent vs the run (#36)…..We prefer Texas but with WOO PIG off the bye week we’ll try and get some more clarity on who’s in and who’s out on offense for them over the next few days…..On the sidelines for now.
No leanage
36. Maryland -6 Rutgers (51)…………MEGALOCKS line – Maryland -5
Vegas Implied Score – Maryland 28.5 Rutgers 22.5
Not a game we’re interested in from an investment standpoint as both teams are amongst the worst in the Big Ten (but not at Purdue’s level of PURE FILTH)….Maryland is 4-5 and fighting to make a bowl game……They’ve lost four of their last five games…..Rutgers (5-4) broke a four-game skid last week with a home win over Minnesota.
No leanage
37. Western Kentucky -13.5 Louisiana Tech (53.5)…………MEGALOCKS line – Western Kentucky -14
Vegas Implied Score – Western Kentucky 33.5 Louisiana Tech 20
The TOPPERS are tied for the lead in CUSA along with Jacksonville St and they’ve won seven of their L8G with the only loss coming on the road at Boston College (L 21-20)…..Louisiana Tech somehow left a guy wide open on a Hail Mary last week ** and ended up losing in OT….They’ve got a scrappy defense and the offense showed some life last week but they’ve got six losses and are essentially DEAD MEAT as far as making a bowl game (at WKU, at WOO PIG, Kennesaw St; must win all three games)…..WKU has beaten their L3 opponents by 13/17/17.
** see our AWARD-WINNING Week in Review post for more detail
No leanage
38. Jacksonville St -14 FIU (59)…………MEGALOCKS line – Jacksonville St -12
Vegas Implied Score – Jacksonville St 36.5 FIU 22.5
It’s tough to fade the COCKS right now as they’ve won six in a row and have rushed for an average of 331 YPG (!) over their last six contests…..They pulled off a miracle win vs Louisiana Tech last week as noted above and are tied with WKU stop the CUSA standings….Their defense is a bit sketchy (#7 CUSA run D, #8 pass efficiency D) so FIU will definitely have their chances to SCORE the FOOTBALL….FIU is 3-6 and they need to win out for a bowl bid…..The problem with backing the Panthers in this spot is that they are excellent vs the pass but brutal vs the run (197 YPG, #116)….FIU has played well vs good CUSA teams losing to Liberty in OT and by three points to Sam Houston…..We may revisit this game if a +14.5 pops up.
No leanage
39. USC -9 CORN (50)…………MEGALOCKS line – USC -10
Vegas Implied Score – USC 29.5 CORN 20.5
We could only look at the favorite in this spot as whilst the Trojans have found a way to lose to powerhouses like Michigan, Minnesota, and Maryland…..it’s also true that they’ve played much better at home….They’ve also got a new shiny starting QB leading the way this week in dual-threat specimen Jayden Maiva who threw for over 3,000 yards at UNLV LY….Nebraska is starting to NEBRASKA right before our eyes as they’ve lost three consecutive games and could conceivably miss a bowl game (AGAIN) after beginning the campaign 5-2…..Both teams are off a bye….CORN HC Matt Rhule is 21-11 ATS over his career as a road dog and CORN sports the #16 defense (308 YPG) and #13 run D in the nation….Sadly they’re mediocre vs the pass and that could be an issue facing the USC WR corps…..Prefer the Trojans but not 100% convinced yet…Stay tuned!
Holding pattern as per above.
UPDATE – No leanage
40. Oregon -14 Wisconsin (52)…………MEGALOCKS line – Oregon -13.5
Vegas Implied Score – Oregon 33 Wisconsin 19
We’ll take a taste of the ‘under’ in this game as Wisconsin will have trouble moving the ball on a solid Oregon defense (#11 total D, #32 run D, #7 pass efficiency D) and they’ve allowed 18/17/9/0 L4G….Wisconsin has scored 10/13/23 L3G and their defense has been decent vs the pass….They didn’t do well vs the THROW GAMES of Penn St and USC, but overall, they’re a well-coached outfit that should stop Oregon from going nuts….The Ducks will be without star WR Tez Johnson and they’ve only reached the 40-point mark once this season.
Lean – Under 52
Posted 9:00am Nov 14
52 is consensus. 51.5s are starting to emerge.
41. Illinois -3 Michigan St (47.5)…………MEGALOCKS line – Illinois -3
Vegas Implied Score – Illinois 25.25 Michigan St 22.25
As MICHGIAN ST TRUTHERS we prefer to take the points in this spot and they’ve been pretty good on the road vs teams in their weight class….They beat Maryland and lost a close one to Boston College….They also lost to Michigan in the Big House by a TD….We like the fact that they’re coming off a bye (so is Illinois) and the last time SPARTY played someone off an idle week they manhandled Iowa…..Illinois QB Luke Altmyer has an impressive 16-3 TD to INT mark but they Illini have no running game (#91 FBS) whilst Michigan St is very strong vs the run (#44)…..Illinois has a shot to do some damage vs a weak Michigan St secondary and note that Sparty has gone five (!) consecutive games without a sack….Michigan St has won 8L9 in Champaign and they need to win 2L3G to make a bowl game….Illinois is playing out the string (6-3) until their postseason date…..Let’s see if we can get a +3.5 over the next 30 hours or so.
Holding pattern as per above.
UPDATE – no leanage
42. Clemson -10 Pittsburgh (54)…………MEGALOCKS line – Clemson -10
Vegas Implied Score – Clemson 32 Pittsburgh 22
Don’t look now but Clemson is lurking in the bushes waiting to pounce should something highly unlikely happen to SMU or something unlikely (but very possible at the same time) happen to YOUR Miami Hurricanes….They’ve looked really good since the opening week bludgeoning at the hands of Georgia and even when they lost to LUA-VUH they outgained the Cards 450-366….QB Cade Klubnik has a 24-4 TD to INT mark and the defense has held 3L5 opponents to under 300Y of offense and 4L5 opponents to < 100 rushing yards…..Pitt has hit the major SKIDS and the offense is nothing compared to what it was early in the season….Clemson is in our crosshairs but we’ll see if we can bag a -9.5.
Holding pattern as per above.
UPDATE – no leanage; line up to -11/-12
43. Marshall -9 Coastal Carolina (57)…………MEGALOCKS line – Marshall -7.5
Vegas Implied Score – Marshall 33 Coastal Carolina 24
Tough game to call at this number as whilst Marshall has been playing some solid football (won 4L5G) they struggle to move the ball thru the air (only two games with 200+ passing yards; Stony Brook, Southern Miss) and both their run D and pass D have been spotty at times….The Chants ended a three-game skid last week and need one more win to reach a bowl game…..They haven’t looked very good on the road this season…..Was hoping for Marshall -6.5 but here we are.
No leanage
44. Georgia Southern -8 Troy (54)…………MEGALOCKS line – Georgia Southern -9.5
Vegas Implied Score – Georgia Southern 31 Troy 23
Troy has started to turn thing around on offense and they’ve put up 511/466 yards in their L2G…….Their defense is still a work in progress to say the least (#97 run D, #100 pass efficiency D) and we’d want double digits to back the dog…..Georgia Southern is tied atop the FUN BELT East with Marshall so we should see a max effort.
No leanage
45. Oregon St -3.5 Air Force (44.5)…………MEGALOCKS line – Oregon St -5
Vegas Implied Score – Oregon St 24 Air Force 20.5
The Beavers are in a virtual must-win situation if they wanna get to a bowl game as they sit at 4-5 and need to bag two more victories in their final three games (Washington St, Boise St next) (!) …..They’ve lost four in a row and are LEAKING OIL but they’ve got a shot to move the ball on the ground (#16 rush offense) vs an Air Force stop unit that ranks #101 in the nation vs the run….The Falcons looked good vs Fresno St last week but that was their first win over an FBS foe this season…..High variance game that’s tough to call but maybe Air Force will show up on the ML Underdog list on Friday?
No leanage
UPDATE
Lean – Air Force -3
Posted 3:03pm Nov 15
+3 is listed virtually everywhere
46. Boise St -13.5 San Jose St (61.5)…………MEGALOCKS line – Boise St -12
Vegas Implied Score – Boise St 37.5 San Jose St 24
Boise St continues to plow thru their BUTTERY SOFT schedule but they had a bit of trouble vs Nevada last week and only managed to win by a score of 28-21 whilst posting less than 400Y of total offense…..San Jose St is good enough to hang around with the Broncos but our prime concern would be backing a one-dimensional offense….The Spartans are #5 in the nation in passing offense but just #125 on the ground….Boise St can be had thru the air but over the course of 4Q can San Jose St keep pace without a reliable rushing attack?
No leanage
47. South Carolina -14 Missouri (41.5)…………MEGALOCKS line – South Carolina -13.5
Vegas Implied Score – South Carolina 27.75 Missouri 13.75
WHOA, NELLIE……South Carolina has been playing some fantastic football since the loss to Ole Miss and they’re getting great production out of the rushing attack (214/286 L2G) and QB LaNorris Sellers is developing into a deadly dual-threat specimen……And EVERYONE knows about that defense by now…..They’ve been fantastic up front and the COCKS are #3 in the country with 33 sacks….That’s bad news for a Missouri offense who’ll almost certainly be without starting QB Brady Cook once again and they lost their starting center due to injury for the season….The illustrious Phil Steele notes that the winner of this game has covered the spread in the each of the last 12 meetings…..Do with that what you will……Still pondering a play on South Cackalacky but need a wee bit more time to research and decide.
Holding pattern as per above.
UPDATE – no leanage
48. LSU -4 Florida (56)…………MEGALOCKS line – LSU -5.5
Vegas Implied Score – LSU 30 Florida 26
Our numbers have a slight preference to the LSU side but it’s hard to ignore that the Tigers have allowed 311/245 rushing yards L2G and Florida has the ability to run the ball behind the 1-2 RB punch of Jadan Baugh and Jakobi Jackson who combined to rush for over 200Y (!) last week vs Texas….And Florida should also get QB DJ Lagway back for this BAD BOY and if his hamstring is back to normal he’ll be able to do some damage with his legs…..Our big concern for the Gators is a secondary that’ll probably (again) be playing with some really inexperienced doods and we saw what Texas did to them last week.
No leanage
49. James Madison -2.5 Old Dominion (51.5)…………MEGALOCKS line – James Madison -3
Vegas Implied Score – James Madison 27 Old Dominion 24.5
We really like the way that Old Dominion has been playing since the insertion of dynamic dual-threat specimen QB Colton Joseph (10-3 TD to INT; 454 rush, 6 TD) and they’re in their preferred spot (home, dog, conference game) whilst needing a win badly to stay in the hunt for a bowl game….James Madison also has a very talented QB in Alonza Barnett (21-2 TD to INT; 341 rush, 5 TD) but they’ve disappointed in FUN BELT play on the road losing outright to ULM and Georgia Southern…..The Dukes lead the nation in turnover margin (+18)(!) so the Monarchs will have to be careful with the football…..Prefer the dog and we’ll see if a +3 pops up again ……They’ll definitely be on the ML Underdog list.
Holding pattern as per above
UPDATE – no leanage (ODU on ML underdog list)
50. Tulane -7 Navy (50.5)…………MEGALOCKS line – Tulane -8.5
Vegas Implied Score – Tulane 28.75 Navy 21.75
The Green Wave are still very much in the hunt for a CFP berth if they win out and they’ll clinch a spot in the AAC title game with a win over Navy on Saturday…..The Green Wave have outscored AAC opposition 271-86 (!) and they’ve played a tougher schedule than Navy…..The Midshipmen have been struggling on offense recently (379/260/310/288 yards) after starting the year like a HOUSAFIRE and they only two decent offenses they faced all year torched them (Memphis – 659 yards, Notre Dame 466 yards)…..Tulane HC Jon Sumrall is 14-2-1 ATS (!) in true road games (Troy, Tulane)…..We’ll have a Tulane-related play at some point before 5pm Friday.
Holding pattern as per above
UPDATE
Official pick – Tulane -7 -110
Sent 3:25pm Nov 15
-7 is listed virtually everywhere
‘Official play’ means that this is one of our favorite plays of the week (perceived value, match-up, coaching, trends, etc.). We’re currently investing 25% more on these plays vs our ‘leans’. We’ll normally have two or three of these choices per week.
‘Lean’ means that we’re placing a standard size wager on the game. We’ll normally have about ten of these plays per week. Many members prefer to pick and choose amongst these games when finalizing their weekly investment cards so we’ll continue to refer to them as ‘leans’.
‘No leanage’ means that we won’t have any action on the game.
Team totals – We’ll list the implied number based on the point spread and total when our analysis is posted. If a team total ends up being an ‘official play’ we’ll post a widely available number at the time of pick release.