Week 12 – South Alabama at Louisiana
posted November 15
The Game
Get ready for some serious FUN BELT action on Saturday night as South Alabama and Louisiana lock horns down on Lafayette. The Cajuns are undefeated in conference play and have a two-game lead in the West division with three games remaining. Their final two contests are vs Troy and ULM so it’s a virtual certainty that we’ll see Louisiana in the Sun Belt title game. South Alabama sits at 4-5 but they’re starting to hit their stride. They need to pick up two victories in their final three contests to get to the postseason.
Let’s goooo!
The Details
Louisiana -7.5 South Alabama (59.5)
MEGALOCKS LINE – Louisiana -6.5
“Vegas” Implied Projected Score: Louisiana 33.5 South Alabama 26
Louisiana offense vs South Alabama defense
The Cajuns have been a very productive and balanced outfit (#34 rushing, #32 passing) behind QB Ben Wooldridge (17-4) and a deep and talented WR/RB corps. They’ve got a pair of 500-yard WRs in Terrance Carter and Lance LeGendre and a nice complement of RBs that take their turns doing damage. The Jags will be able to slow down the ground game (127 YPG, #2 Sun Belt run D) but Wooldridge will be able to make things work in the THROW GAME vs a Jaguars’ pass defense that ranks #80 in the nation in pass efficiency defense. South Alabama has been better over the last month or so on defense allowing 18 to Arkansas St, 9 vs Troy, 17 vs ULM, and 34 to Georgia Southern (16 well into 4Q), so there’s reason for optimism.
South Alabama offense vs Louisiana defense
South Alabama also boasts one of the best QBs in the Group of Five in Gio Lopez (14-2 TD to INT; 393 rush, 4 TD) but the key matchup in this game is definitely the rumbling Jaguars’ ground game (213 YPG) vs the SOFT UNDERBELLY of the Cajuns stop unit (162 YPG rushing, #90 FBS). South Alabama has a pair of 600-yard RBs in FLUFF Bothwell and Kentrel Bullock (combined 15 TDs) who should be able to do some serious damage on Saturday. Lopez is also dangerous with his legs but he’s missed some time this season due to head injuries so it’s imperative that he protect himself as much as possible. Watch for WR Jamaal Pritchet (769, 7 TD) to make some plays once the focus becomes stopping the Jaguars RBs.
Trends, Intangibles, and More!
Both teams have been very opportunistic in the turnover department (each squad +8) so it’ll be interesting if either team can gain a significant edge in the game by forcing mistakes….South Alabama is off a bye week and that’s definitely good news for QB Gio Lopez after he missed some snaps late in the Georgia Southern collapse….He also missed the Ohio game earlier in the year (L 27-20).
Summary
These two squads are fairly evenly matched and South Alabama should be able to hang around given their ability to run the football. QB Gio Lopez has only thrown two interceptions all season and if he plays another clean game it’ll be tough for the Cajuns to get the requisite separation.
Conclusion
Lean – South Alabama +7.5
Posted 2:57pm Nov 15
+7.5 is listed virtually everywhere
‘Official play’ means that this is one of our favorite plays of the week (perceived value, match-up, coaching, trends, etc.). We’re currently investing 25% more on these plays vs our ‘leans’. We’ll normally have two or three of these choices per week.
‘Lean’ means that we’re placing a standard size wager on the game. We’ll normally have about ten of these plays per week. Many members prefer to pick and choose amongst these games when finalizing their weekly investment cards so we’ll continue to refer to them as ‘leans’.
‘No leanage’ means that we won’t have any action on the game.
Team totals – We’ll list the implied number based on the point spread and total when our analysis is posted. If a team total ends up being an ‘official play’ we’ll post a widely available number at the time of pick release.