Week 13 – Ole Miss at Florida
posted November 20
The Game
We’ve got some SWEET SEC ACTION to look forward to at high noon on Saturday as Ole Miss travels to the SWAMP to battle the Florida Gators. The last time we saw Ole Miss a few weeks ago they were pounding mighty Georgia, and thanks to that victory, they can clinch a spot in the CFP with wins over Florida and Mississippi St in their L2G. Florida has been battling hard all season and with a record of 5-5 they are well within range of becoming bowl eligible (Florida St next week) despite playing a grueling schedule.
Let’s goooo!
The Details
Ole Miss -10 Florida (55.5)
MEGALOCKS LINE – Ole Miss -11
“Vegas” Implied Projected Score: Ole Miss 32.75 Florida 22.75
Ole Miss offense vs Florida defense
The Rebels have been moving like a TREMENDOUS MACHINE on offense and rank #2 in the country in total offense (540 YPG) and #4 in scoring offense (41 PPG). Whilst it’s true that the Rebels feasted on horrible competition earlier in the season, it’s also worth noting that they recently put up 694 yards and 63 (!) points vs WOO PIG. Last week, Texas struggled and could only score 20 points on the Hogs. Ole Miss has been struggling to get the ground game going but the THROW GAME has been lethal behind star QB Jaxson Dart (3,409, 22-4 TD to INT) and they’ll almost certainly get star WR Tre Harris back for this affair. Florida has been decent vs the run but they’re very inexperienced in the secondary and have allowed 300+ passing yards in 2L3 games. The Gators booked 7 sacks last week vs LSU so it’ll be interesting to see if they can get some serious heat on Dart.
Florida offense vs Ole Miss defense
Lost in the glory of the Ole Miss offensive display has been the performance of the defense. They’ve displayed a devastating pass rush (46 sacks, #1 FBS) and rank #2 in the nation vs the run and #36 in pass efficiency defense. It’s great for the Gators to have QB DJ Lagway back under center but he’s clearly limited from a mobility standpoint and he’s booked a mediocre 7-5 TD to INT mark so far in 2024. The Gators have a deep and talented stable of RBs and they’re very deep at the position but nobody has been able to do damage on Ole Miss with the run game so that means Lagway will have to do most of the heavy lifting thru the air. The Gators have a fine 1-2 combo at WR (Badger, Dike) so there’s some hope they can make some big plays in the THROW GAME and keep the game competitive heading into the 4Q.
Trends, Intangibles, and More!
Ole Miss comes into this BAD BOY off a much-needed bye week whilst the Gators are coming off a brutal three-game stretch (Georgia/Texas/LSU)…..Also note that Florida has the yuuuuge game with Florida St up next….They can clinch a bowl bid with a win in that game, not to mention embarrass their hated rival.
Summary
Ole Miss is a top-five team on both sides of the football and this is a bad situational spot for the Gators. We’ve been on the Gators bandwagon more than a few times this season but we can’t do it on this occasion. We’ll be cheering hard for them next week!
Conclusion
Official play – Ole Miss -10 -108
Sent 4:45pm Nov 20
-10 is listed virtually everywhere
‘Official play’ means that this is one of our favorite plays of the week (perceived value, match-up, coaching, trends, etc.). We’re currently investing 25% more on these plays vs our ‘leans’. We’ll normally have two or three of these choices per week.
‘Lean’ means that we’re placing a standard size wager on the game. We’ll normally have about ten of these plays per week. Many members prefer to pick and choose amongst these games when finalizing their weekly investment cards so we’ll continue to refer to them as ‘leans’.
‘No leanage’ means that we won’t have any action on the game.
Team totals – We’ll list the implied number based on the point spread and total when our analysis is posted. If a team total ends up being an ‘official play’ we’ll post a widely available number at the time of pick release.