Week 13 QUICK TAKES – College Football Predictions
NOTE: IF we add any futures plays they will be listed on this page as well as on the Futures blog post.
Here are some QUICK TAKES on the games that did not make the cut for a longer write-up this week.
Let’s go!
UPDATE 2:45pm Friday. ML underdog picks are up. Card will be final by 5pm. Just watching a few lines. One more send-out pick coming.
UPDATE: 4:35pm Friday. We’re done for the week. Last send-out pick coming before 5pm.
GL, PLAY SAFE and enjoy the games!
Handy index: Quick Takes
‘Official’ picks in blue. ‘Leans’ in green. Waiting on a number or information to make a potential play in orange.
- Akron at Kent St (Tuesday)
- Massachusetts at Georgia
- South Alabama at Southern Miss
- Louisiana Tech at WOO PIG
- UTEP at Tennessee
- Wake Forest at Miami
- MTSU at New Mexico St
- FIU at Kennesaw St
- Charlotte at FAU
- Washington St at Oregon St
- Western Michigan at Central Michigan (Tuesday)
- Texas St at Georgia St
- Bowling Green at Ball St
- Missouri at Mississippi St
- Purdue at Michigan St (Friday)
- Kentucky at Texas
- Stanford at California
- Temple at UTSA (Friday)
- NC State at Georgia Tech (Thursday)
- UNLV at San Jose St (Friday)
- San Diego St at Utah St
- Northern Illinois at Miami Ohio (Tuesday)
- Buffalo at Eastern Michigan (Wednesday)
- Iowa St at Utah
- Baylor at Houston
- Iowa at Maryland
- Pittsburgh at LUA-VUH
- Vanderbilt at LSU
- UCLA at USC
- SMU at Virginia
- Connecticut at Syracuse
- Tulsa at USF
- Ohio at Toledo (Wednesday)
- Penn St at Minnesota
- Boise St at Wyoming
- Arizona at TCU
- ROLL TIDE at Oklahoma
- Notre Dame vs Army
- Georgia Southern at Coastal Carolina
- Wisconsin at CORN
- Rice at UAB
- BYU at Arizona St
- Troy at Louisiana
- Indiana at Ohio St
- Virginia Tech at Duke
- UCF at West Virginia
- Texas Tech at West Virginia
- Colorado St at Fresno St
- Air Force at Nevada
- Northwestern at Michigan
- East Carolina at North Texas
- UNC at Boston College
- Cincinnati at Kansas St
- Sam Houston at Jacksonville St
- WKU at Liberty
- James Madison at Appalachian St
- Colorado at Kansas
- Wisconsin at Rutgers
- Marshall at Old Dominion
- ULM at Arkansas St
QUICK TAKES
1. Akron -10 Kent St (48.5)…………MEGALOCKS line – Akron -10.5
Vegas Implied Score – Akron 29.25 Kent St 19.25
It’s the battle for the WAGON WHEEL TROPHY on Tuesday night and the early weather forecast is calling for a 60% chance of rain which makes the game even more awesome than usual…..Akron sits at 2-8 and Kent St is an impossible 0-10….The Zips are the much better team and they’re coming off a good showing vs Northern Illinois but we’re not crazy about laying double digits with a 2-8 team in a rivalry game no matter how horrific Kent St may be playing these days.
No leanage
2. Georgia -42.5 Massachusetts (56.5)…………MEGALOCKS line – Georgia -40
Vegas Implied Score – Georgia 49.5 Massachusetts 7
It doesn’t get much tougher than this from a talent standpoint as UMass travels to Athens for a battle with mighty Georgia…..UMass has had their moments and have been scrappier than anticipated but they didn’t fare well in their other two games vs SEC foes….They lost to Missouri and Mississippi St by a combined score of 90-23…..Sandwich spot for Georgia off the Tennessee win and they’ve got Georgia Tech on deck.
No leanage
3. South Alabama -22 Southern Miss (55)…………MEGALOCKS line – South Alabama -23.5
Vegas Implied Score – South Alabama 38.5 Southern Miss 16.5
The Golden Eagles can’t wait to get this season over with as they sit at 1-9 after getting bludgeoned by Texas St by a score of 58-3 last time out…..South Alabama is on a mission to get to a bowl game (5-5) and will be dominant in this game….But can they cover the yuuuuge number?….Looks like a “lay it if you’re gonna play it” scenario.
No leanage
4. WOO PIG -21.5 Louisiana Tech (50.5)…………MEGALOCKS line – WOO PIG -20
Vegas Implied Score – WOO PIG 36 Louisiana Tech 14.5
Arkansas needs one more win to make a bowl game (5-5) and they don’t wanna leave it to the final week of the campaign when they have to travel to Missouri…..Louisiana Tech is coming off an improbable road win at WKU and they pulled the upset without scoring a TD (W 12-7)….The Bulldogs have a decent stop unit but it’s hard to see them scoring much in this one……WOO PIG has laid eggs many times at home vs TURDS so tread lightly.
No leanage
5. Tennessee -41 UTEP (53)…………MEGALOCKS line – Tennessee -39.5
Vegas Implied Score – Tennessee 47 UTEP 6
There’s no doubt that this is BLOWOUT CITY as the Miners are one of the worst teams in college football…….Will Tennessee be able to clear the yuuuuge point spread hurdle after losing to Georgia and before they hit the road to play the scrappy Commodores?….This is an unpredictable “name the score” situation in terms of the point spread so we’ll pass on it and continue the search for games that’ll provide the opportunity for some SWEET ACTION.
No leanage
6. Miami -24 Wake Forest (64.5)…………MEGALOCKS line – Miami -21
Vegas Implied Score – Miami 44.25 Wake Forest 20.25
The Hurricanes have to take care of business over the L2G to punch their ticket to the ACC title game…..Wake Forest is too horrible on defense to make a game of this one (#118 total defense, #113 scoring defense) whilst YOUR Miami Hurricanes are #1 in the country in total offense (545 YPG) and #1 in scoring offense (45 PPG)…..Miami’s defense has been decent statistically (#21 YPG) but they also enjoy blowing coverages in the secondary so Wake Forest is capable of sticking within 24 points if they don’t get smoked right out of the gate.
No leanage
7. MTSU -3.5 New Mexico St (50.5)…………MEGALOCKS line – MTSU -5
Vegas Implied Score – MTSU 27 New Mexico St 23.5
Not a game we’re interested in getting involved with as it features two of the very worst teams that the sport has to offer….New Mexico St is worth paying attention to when they play at home but not when they’re ON THE HIGHWAY.
No leanage
8. FIU -9 Kennesaw St (44)…………MEGALOCKS line – FIU -7.5
Vegas Implied Score – FIU 26.5 Kennesaw St 17.5
Backers of the COACHING CHANGE ** angle took home some more CASHOLA last week as Kennesaw St took mighty Sam Houston to OT before losing by a score of 23-17…..The Owls have the 2nd worst offense in the nation (Kent St) but they did find a way to beat Liberty about a month ago…..FIU has found interesting ways to lose close games to good teams (Sam Houston, Liberty, Jacksonville St) and whilst we believe they overmatch Kennesaw St in this battle we can’t trust them at this price point.
** see FAU game below for tales of more head coach carnage
No leanage
9. Charlotte -2.5 FAU (48.5)…………MEGALOCKS line – Pick ’em
Vegas Implied Score – Charlotte 25.5 FAU 23
These two teams are both planted firmly in the PURE FILTH category and unworthy of an investment…..FAU has been a yuuuge disappointment (2-8) and Charlotte just got plastered by USF to the tune of 59-24 whilst allowing 45 points in the 2nd half.
No leanage
UPDATE – FAU just shitcanned their HC. We’ll look at this game again as the week moves along. It’s FAU or pass.
UPDATE – You can’t make this up. Charlotte fired their HC.
No leanage
10. Washington St -12.5 Oregon St (56.5)…………MEGALOCKS line – Washington St -13.5
Vegas Implied Score – Washington St 34.5 Oregon St 22
Can we call this the “PAC 12 Championship Game” ?…..We’ve definitely got a soft spot for both of these programs given how they were abandoned by their former conference colleagues but sadly this might not be much of a game…..Washington St has been strong on offense behind dual-threat QB John Mateer but Oregon St has been a total GREASE FIRE….and don’t forget that they just got shutout by Air Force (L 28-CACK)….We could only look to the Cougars in this one but they’re not the most reliable bunch and they just lost to New Mexico.
No leanage
11. Western Michigan -6.5 Central Michigan (56)…………MEGALOCKS line – Western Michigan -5
Vegas Implied Score – Western Michigan 31.25 Central Michigan 24.75
It’s the battle for the VICTORY CANNON, yo….Western Michigan is still alive in the MAC race but they need to win their final two games and get some help……FIRE UP CHIPS aren’t making a bowl game and the last contest of importance comes on Tuesday night when they have a home game vs their rivals from Kalamazoo….We prefer the Broncos in this game and believe that their rushing attack (#26 FBS) will be able to have a lot of success vs the Central Michigan run defense (#103)…..Central Michigan is #130 (!) in the nation in turnover margin and they gave it away five times last week in their loss to Toledo….The issue with playing Western Michigan is that the price isn’t cheap and their four MAC wins haven’t been vs….let’s say….the strongest opposition….The home team is 1-10 ATS L11 in the series and Western Michigan is 10-3 SU 13 vs the Chippewas….For those that like to partake in two-game ML parlays, using WM as the OPENING SALVO is probably a decent idea.
No leanage
12. Texas St -20 Georgia St (58)…………MEGALOCKS line – Texas St -18
Vegas Implied Score – Texas St 39 Georgia St 19
Texas St just scored 9,000 points on Southern Miss ** and their offense is rolling once again…..Georgia St has lost seven games in a row but have been a lot more competitive than you might think when looking at their record….And don’t forget that they did what ROLL TIDE couldn’t do…..beat Vanderbilt…..We were hoping for a line around -17 but here we are.
** Fact check: Close enough.
No leanage
13. Bowling Green -11.5 Ball St (57.5)…………MEGALOCKS line – Bowling Green -10
Vegas Implied Score – Bowling Green 34.5 Ball St 23
The Cardinals are coming off an OT loss at Buffalo…..a game in which they led by 14 points with 6 minutes left….Also note that Ball St hasn’t lost a game by more than 10 points (!) all season other than the blowout losses to James Madison and YOUR Miami Hurricanes….In their L6G they lost in OT at Buffalo, lost to Miami Ohio by 6, beat NIU (!), lost at Vanderbilt by 10 (!), beat Kent St, and lost to Western Michigan by 3…..The defense has also been playing better (27/23/24 points allowed before allowing 51 to Buffalo)…..And now that they’ve finally fired HC Mike Neu do we see a max effort in this one???……Bowling Green is playing their best football right now and are a tough fade…..QB C Bazelak has an 8-0 TD to INT mark since the ODU game and their offense is much better with RB Terion Stewart back at full strength…..The Falcons have allowed <300Y in 4L5G…..We’ll wait around and see if we can get a +13 or so…..+11 is our minimum price….We’ll lurk in the weeds for now.
Holding pattern as noted above.
UPDATE
Lean – Ball St +11
Posted 4:25pm Nov 22
+11 is consensus. There are a few +11.5s out there.
14. Missouri -7.5 Mississippi St (57.5)…………MEGALOCKS line – Missouri -9.5
Vegas Implied Score – Missouri 32.5 Mississippi St 25
This isn’t a game we’re interested in from a betting standpoint as Mississippi St is the worst team in the SEC whilst Missouri is just playing out the season after finally coming to grips with the fact that they won’t be in the SEC Championship Game or the CFP despite having a BUTTERY SOFT schedule…..At least Brady Cook is back at QB (for now).
No leanage
15. Michigan St -13.5 Purdue (48)…………MEGALOCKS line – Michigan St -14
Vegas Implied Score – Michigan St 30.75 Purdue 17.25
Michigan St SHAT the BED last week vs Illinois and as we noted on the AWARD-WINNING radio show on SPORTSXRADIO with Ken Thomson……We liked Michigan St in that game but wanted +3.5 or more to take the dog but the MOB STEAM took the line below 3….We are still Michigan St TRUTHERS but they’re running out of runway to make a bowl game (4-6)….Thankfully, they’ve got home games to end the season vs the CORPSE of Purdue and Rutgers…..SEASON WIN TOTAL CLUB is holding their collective breath hoping for one more win….There’s no reason to think they won’t smash the Boilermakers but laying 2 TDs with this group doesn’t seem like a great idea.
No leanage
16. Texas -20.5 Kentucky (47.5)…………MEGALOCKS line – Texas -21
Vegas Implied Score – Texas 34 Kentucky 13.5
The Longhorns have been playing outstanding defense (249 YPG, #1 FBS) and they just held a potent WOO PIG squad to 10 points in their win in Fayetteville last week…..They’ve got what should be a PLAY-IN event to the SEC Championship game next week at Texas A&M should both teams win this week….Kentucky has scored 18/10/20/13/20 /6 (!) vs conference opponents and they’re gonna have a tough time getting much done on Saturday…..Spread looks about right.
No leanage
17. California -14 Stanford (55)…………MEGALOCKS line – California -14
Vegas Implied Score – California 34.5 Stanford 20.5
Cal put in a CLUNKER last week vs Syracuse and lost to the Orange at home….They’re now 5-5 with their five losses coming by a combined 17 (!) points….Stanford had lost six in a row since their upset win over….wait for it…..Syracuse back in September but they managed to SHOCK the WORLD with a miracle comeback win over LUA-VUH (W 38-35) last week…..The Golden Bears have won and covered three in a row in the BIG GAME….They’re fighting for a bowl bid whilst this is the last game Stanford will care about until next season so we expect a max effort from them…..Cal will be able to do some damage thru the air (#25 pass offense vs #126 pass efficiency defense) but we’re not crazy about laying the big lumber in this particular rivalry game……Line appears to be DEAD ON BALLS ACCURATE **.
** an industry term
No leanage
18. UTSA -16.5 Temple (56) ………..MEGALOCKS line – UTSA -18
Vegas Implied Score – UTSA 36.25 Temple 19.75
The Roadrunners are moving like a TREMENDOUS MACHINE recently and they’ve scored 48/44/46/38 L4G….QB Owen McCown is really coming into his own (22-5 TD to INT; 1.3% INT rate) but the offense is forced to do a lot of scoring given how bad their pass defense has been this year (#118 pass efficiency D)…..Temple found a way to beat FAU in OT last week but they only scored 18 points (6 the week before vs Tulane)……In their L2 road games they allowed 52 vs the Green Wave and 56 to East Carolina….We prefer UTSA but guess what?….There’s more head coaching CARNAGE to report as Temple just shitcanned their HC…There’s always a chance a team puts forth a max effort after that move even if they stink….It’s happened a few times already this season….We need to mull this one over.
Holding pattern as per above
UPDATE – no leanage
19. Georgia Tech -9 NC State (52)…………MEGALOCKS line – Georgia Tech -7.5
Vegas Implied Score – Georgia Tech 30.5 NC State 21.5
Both teams are coming off a bye week and the last time we saw the Yellow Jackets they were smacking around YOUR Miami Hurricanes (W 28-23)…..We prefer Georgia Tech in this game especially with QB Haynes King back under center but don’t wanna lay more than 7 points and here we are…..NC State has playing better football since CJ Bailey took over at QB and they need one more win to get to a bowl game.
No leanage
20. UNLV -7.5 San Jose St (62)…………MEGALOCKS line – UNLV -9
Vegas Implied Score – UNLV 34.75 San Jose St 27.25
The Rebels need to win their final two games and hope that mighty COLORADO ST drops one of their final two contests in order to set up a rematch with Boise St in the MW title game…..San Jose St has a potent THROW GAME (#4 FBS) which makes them a very dangerous outfit but they can’t run the football and UNLV has the better stop unit…..The Spartans were in great shape late in the game vs Boise St last week but somehow failed to cover +14.5…..Check out our AWARD-WINNING Week in Review post for more details….We prefer the Rebels in this affair but they’ve got the pressure on their backs….San Jose is already going bowling and have another shot to ruin someone’s season.
No leanage
21. Utah St -4 San Diego St (62)…………MEGALOCKS line – Utah St -6.5
Vegas Implied Score – Utah St 33 San Diego St 29
We’ll roll with the home team that has the advantages of current form (SD St lost 4 straight; Utah St won 2L3), an offense that can SCORE the FOOTBALL (55 last week vs Hawaii), and the altitude/cold weather scenario they may not be ideal for the Aztecs…Neither team can play defense but Utah St can move the ball on the ground and thru the air….Neither team is making a bowl game so we should get a max effort from the Aggies who are playing their home finale.
Lean – Utah St -4
Posted 10:05am Nov 19
-4 is listed basically everywhere
22. Miami Ohio -2.5 Northern Illinois (43)…………MEGALOCKS line – Miami Ohio -3
Vegas Implied Score – Miami Ohio 22.75 Northern Illinois 20.25
Tough game to call as the Redhawks are tied atop the MAC standings and need this game badly….They’ve won five consecutive MAC games after losing to Toledo…..NIU has three MAC losses and has already qualified for a bowl game so they’ll be trying to play spoiler in this event……These are two of the best defenses in the MAC…..NIU is essentially one-dimensional on offense but the rushing attack is GOOD and Telly Johnson has done a fine job of replacing the injured Antario Brown by rushing for over 100 yards in each of the last two games….Miami has the best QB in the MAC in 18-year ** veteran Brett Gabbert but it’s gonna be tough sledding vs the NIU stop unit…..Miami has won and covered the L3 meetings…..Tough call at this price point.
** Needs fact check
No leanage
23. Eastern Michigan -1 Buffalo (53)…………MEGALOCKS line – Pick ’em
Vegas Implied Score – Eastern Michigan 27 Buffalo 26
Our DEEP MAC INSIDERS believe that this game is a coin flip and the market seems to agree….We believe that Buffalo is the slightly better squad as their offense is starting to gel around QB CJ Ogbonna but their defense is starting to fall apart….Eastern Michigan is fighting hard to make a bowl game which is a yuuuuge deal and accomplishment for that program but they’ve lost 4L5 games and are 5-5 overall…..Note that Eagles QB Cole Snyder is playing his old team…..TOTALS PLAYERS be advised that the weather looks sketchy as we approach press time…..Always check out our WEATHER BLOG POST to see what games have potential weather issues….Last Wednesday our WEATHER HOTTIES alerted members to bad weather across the board and we had some low-scoring MACtion.
No leanage
24. Iowa St -7.5 Utah (41.5)…………MEGALOCKS line – Iowa St -5.5
Vegas Implied Score – Iowa St 24.5 Utah 17
Iowa St is still alive in the Big 12 race but they need to win out and get some help…..QB Rocco Becht is playing well and they’ve got a pair of legit #1 WRs…..Sadly however, the defense is falling to pieces……Utah has lost six (!) games in a row and need to win their L2G to achieve bowl eligibility….Their offense is disgusting but the defense is still playing well and that makes this a tricky proposition to back the Cyclones….Last week at Colorado was the first time that the Utes had allowed more than 400Y of offense (405).
No leanage
25. Baylor -7.5 Houston (50.5)………..MEGALOCKS line – Baylor -9.5
Vegas Implied Score – Baylor 29 Houston 21.5
YOUR Baylor Bears are on SUPAH HOT FIRE as we approach press time…..They’ve won four straight games, are getting excellent QB play, and have an emerging superstar at RB in Bryson Washington….We’d like to take the Bears one more time but this is a tough spot coming off emotional wins over TCU and West Virginia and it’s not like their defense is playing “lights out” (five consecutive games with 400+ yards allowed)….Also note that as bad as Houston as looked at times they’ve also managed to upset TCU, Utah, and Kansas St.
No leanage
26. Iowa -6 Maryland (41)………..MEGALOCKS line – Iowa -6.5
Vegas Implied Score – Iowa 23.5 Maryland 17.5
Impossible game to call in our view right now as Iowa’s QB situation is a complete mess and as good as their rushing attack and defense might be…..We’ve SEEN Iowa in recent times with doods like Deacon Hill at QB and it wasn’t pretty….Maryland’s season is going GLUG GLUG GLUG down the tubes (lost 5L6 games) but they’ve still got some talented specimens on offense.
No leanage
27. LUA-VUH -8 Pittsburgh (57)………..MEGALOCKS line – LUA-VUH -7
Vegas Implied Score – LUA-VUH 32.5 Pittsburgh 24.5
Both teams are coming off losses and both squads are bowl eligible and playing out the string…..LUA-VUH in maddingly inconsistent as they’ve lost to the Irish by 7, YOUR Miami Hurricanes by 7, SMU by….wait for it….7, and taken down Clemson….But they’ve also lost to Stanford and squeaked by BC and Virginia….Check the status of LUA-VUH star RB Isaac Brown who only had two carries last week…..Pitt won seven in a row to start the year but have lost their L3G…Their players were dropping like flies last week vs Clemson so it’s another “watch the injury report” situation…..We definitely prefer the Cardinals in this game but Pitt’s stop unit has allowed <350Y of offense in 4L5G and if Brown doesn’t go that’s a big issue vs the stout Pitt run D (#13).
No leanage
28. LSU -7.5 Vanderbilt (53.5)………..MEGALOCKS line – LSU -9.5
Vegas Implied Score – LSU 30.5 Vanderbilt 23
Tough game to call as the Tigers have the superior talent but they’re falling apart on both sides of the football….Just 5.5 and 5.7 YPA throwing the ball L2G whilst getting sacked 9 times in those two affairs (7 last week) and the defense is getting GASHED…Vanderbilt if off a bye but they’ve put up a mere 274/227 yards L2G and we’ve got a sneaky suspicion that they’re 110% laser-focused on the game with Tennessee next week.
No leanage
29. USC -4.5 UCLA (51.5)………..MEGALOCKS line – USC -6
Vegas Implied Score – USC 28 UCLA 23.5
We were hoping to have a HOT TAKE on this game but we still need to see the USC offense operate for at least one more game under new starting QB Jayden Maiava and whilst many folks talk about the “potent” Trojans offense note that they’ve only scored 28/21 L2G and they don’t have a single player with over 500 receiving yards….We love the UCLA defense but they’re limited on offense….Both squads are fighting for bowl eligibility….The road team has won and covered L4 in the series.
No leanage
30. SMU -9.5 Virginia (58.5)………..MEGALOCKS line – SMU -10
Vegas Implied Score – SMU 34 Virginia 24.5
If you’re looking for a team to provide some SWEET BACK DOOR ACTION look no further than Virginia who’s done the trick vs Clemson and Notre Dame whilst getting blown to bits on the scoreboard **….SMU is on a DATE with DESTINY to make the ACC title game and they can’t afford to lose this game…..The pressure is on but they’re much better on both sides of the football….And they got a yuuuuge scare vs BC last week so we don’t anticipate they’ll be caught sleeping this week.
** Good teams win, GREAT teams cover, yo. ^^
^^ Fact check – True.
No leanage
31. Syracuse -10.5 UConn (54.5)………..MEGALOCKS line – Syracuse -13
Vegas Implied Score – Syracuse 32.5 UConn 22
We’ll go with our numbers and back the favorite in this spot as they’ve outgained all but one opponent this year (Virginia Tech, won the game), boast a QB that’s on his way to a 4,000-yard season (3,476 so far), and a RB that’s closing in on a 1,000-yard season….They’ve also tallied a small handful of quality wins whilst the Huskies have played the #133 (!) schedule according to the Sagarin ratings….UConn has been life and death to beat turds such as UAB, Georgia St, Rice, and Temple in recent outings…SEASON WIN TOTAL CLUB is very proud of their efforts this season (7-3) but we’re not confident they can handle the rise in class.
Lean – Syracuse -10.5
Posted 8:41am Nov 20
-10.5 is listed virtually everywhere
32. USF -17 Tulsa (60.5)………..MEGALOCKS line – USF -15.5
Vegas Implied Score – USF 38.75 Tulsa 21.75
Tulsa has been a train wreck this season but it should be noted that two of their L3G weren’t horrible…..They stormed back to beat UTSA 46-45 a few weeks ago and they took the ARRRRRRRRRRRRRRR Pirates of East Carolina to the wire last time out (L 38-31)….USF has won 3L4 games but have been an inconsistent bunch to say the least (#114 total defense)….One more win and they’ll be off to a bowl game.
No leanage
33. Toledo -1.5 Ohio (44.5)………..MEGALOCKS line – Toledo -2.5
Vegas Implied Score – Toledo 23 Ohio 21.5
Both teams are still in the hunt for a MAC Championship Game appearance and we’ve got these teams rated dead even on a neutral field….Ohio does the majority of their damage on the ground (#19 FBS) whilst the Rockets prefer MATRICULATING the ball down the field thru the air (#43)…..Both defenses are solid, Toledo is tough to beat on their home turf….Tough game to call….We were hoping for a +3 ticket on Ohio but here we are.
No leanage
34. Penn St -12 Minnesota (45)………..MEGALOCKS line – Penn St -10
Vegas Implied Score – Penn St 28.5 Minnesota 16.5
Penn St has one more significant hurdle to clear before they book their ticket to the CFP (home vs Maryland next week; LOCK it up) and it’s a tricky road test at Minnesota, a team with six wins and quality conquests over USC, UCLA, and Illinois….Penn St is a very balanced outfit (#14 total offense, #4 total defense) and they should be able to handle a middling Minnesota offense (#113) that has trouble running the football (#121)…..The Gophers still play sound defense tho (#11 total D, #34 run D, #10 pass efficiency D) so we expect a MEAT GRINDER type of game similar to when Penn St went into Wisconsin and eventually pulled away late…..Prefer the dog but only at a price of +14 or better and here we are.
No leanage
35. Boise St -22.5 Wyoming (57.5)………..MEGALOCKS line – Boise St -20
Vegas Implied Score – Boise St 40 Wyoming 17.5
Boise St has been playing with fire in three of their L4 outings and they got a miracle cover last week as documented in our AWARD-WINNING Week in Review post…..Wyoming has been better on offense with the return of star RB Harrison Waylee and the insertion of Kaden Anderson at QB (300+ passing yards vs New Mexico) but the Pokes are still having a lot of trouble stopping the run (248/412 rush yards allowed L2G) and that’s bad news when facing Heisman-caliber RB Ashton Jeanty (1,893, 26 TD) and the #3 rushing attack in the nation….This still feels like a few too many points so we may come back to it later in the week.
Holding pattern as per above
UPDATE – no leanage
36. TCU -11.5 Arizona (59.5)………..MEGALOCKS line – TCU -13
Vegas Implied Score – TCU 35.5 Arizona 24
Arizona finally got back on the beam last week and broke their five-game (!) losing skid with a 27-3 win over Houston….They need to win both of their final two contests to make a bowl game (Arizona St next)….TCU should have a lot of success in the THROW GAME behind the arm of QB Josh Hoover (3,233, 22-8 TD to INT) but they can’t run the football and their defense is a bit sketchy….Arizona has been blown out in three of four road games with their only decent effort coming in a 23-10 win at Utah….Prefer the favorite but haven’t gotten to the window yet.
No leanage
37. ROLL TIDE -13.5 Oklahoma (47.5)………..MEGALOCKS line – ROLL TIDE -12
Vegas Implied Score – ROLL TIDE 30.5 Oklahoma 17
WHOA, NELLIE….Just when you thought the Tide were dead and buried in the SEC race they have life once again after smashing LSU to bits and watching a few other dominoes fall their way….They’re virtually assured of spot in the SEC Championship Game if they win their final two games vs Oklahoma and Auburn….Alabama is still a bit flaky and undisciplined but QB Jalen Milroe appears to be back to his old self after being less than 100% vs Tennessee ** and they’ve allowed 20 total points over the L3G….Oklahoma was hideous on offense vs Missouri despite getting some playmakers back at WR and it’s hard to see them hanging around for 4Q even tho they play excellent defense….We prefer the Tide but can’t get there at this price point.
** Fact check: That’s the rumor, and it sure looked like it, yo.
No leanage
38. Notre Dame -14.5 Army (44.5)………..MEGALOCKS line – Notre Dame -16.5
Vegas Implied Score – Notre Dame 29.5 Army 15
The Fighting Irish didn’t look great in their first two games and were beaten by Northern Freaking Illinois, but to their credit, they’ve been sharp as a tack since that defeat and in the L5G they’ve outscored the opposition 221-51 (!)….Army is one of the best stories in college football as they come into this YANKEE STADIUM event at 9-0 and they’ve already booked a spot in the AAC title game (vs Tulane; location TBD)….Our prime concern with backing Army is their strength of schedule which ranks an abysmal #137 (ND #67)….We prefer the Irish in this affair but it wouldn’t take more than two or three decent Army drives to significantly shorten this game ….Notre Dame has been fairly stout vs the run but recall that Navy ran for 222 yards in their blowout loss to the Irish.
No leanage
39. Coastal Carolina -2.5 Georgia Southern (57)………..MEGALOCKS line – Coastal Carolina -3
Vegas Implied Score – Coastal Carolina 29.75 Georgia Southern 27.25
This was an easy game for us to cross of the list of potential investments as these two squads are both extremely inconsistent…Georgia Southern is still in the thick of the Sun Belt East race whilst Coastal is fighting for bowl eligibility (5-5)….The Eagles have been outgained by each of their L3 opponents.
No leanage
40. CORN -2.5 Wisconsin (42.5)………..MEGALOCKS line – CORN -2
Vegas Implied Score – CORN 22.5 Wisconsin 20
Tough game to call as Nebraska is doing their best Nebraska impersonation…..They started out 5-1 (!) and have now lost four in a row….Is it possible they could miss out on a bowl game yet AGAIN??….Wisconsin isn’t anything special but we trust them more than CORN and their defense should be able to handle anything that the Huskers come up with on offense….Line looks about right….The Badgers are a prime contender for our AWARD-WINNING GOLD BAR ACCUMULATING ML Underdog list on Friday.
No leanage
41. Rice -6.5 UAB (51.5)………..MEGALOCKS line – Rice -7.5
Vegas Implied Score – Rice 29 UAB 22.5
Tough game to call as UAB was playing much better (relatively speaking) before getting destroyed by Memphis last week…..Your boy Trent Dilfer might be the next HC to get shitcanned but we’ll see how things play out….Rice has only won three games this year but at least they were competitive vs Memphis last time out…..Fav or pass and we’ll take a seat for now.
No leanage
42. Arizona St -3 BYU (48.5)………..MEGALOCKS line – Arizona St -2.5
Vegas Implied Score – Arizona St 25.75 BYU 22.75
This might be the most underrated game of the week as a pair (!) of Big 12 contenders go head-to-head in Tempe……Arizona St is efficient on offense and sneaky-good on defense…..BYU was undefeated before losing at home last week to Kansas….They outgained the “greatest team of all-time” according to many pundits in the 2024 Kansas Jayhawks ** by over 100-yards but dropped a 17-13 decision….We’ve got these two squads dead even in our WORLD CLASS power ratings and after giving Arizona St a small bump for home field we agree with the market.
** They’ve somehow lost six games. Weird.
No leanage
43. Louisiana -10 Troy (52)………..MEGALOCKS line – Louisiana -11
Vegas Implied Score – Louisiana 31 Troy 21
The Cajuns have a lot more urgency after losing to YOUR South Alabama Jaguars last week as they need to take care of business vs Troy and ULM in order to salt away the FUN BELT West…..Starting QB Ben Wooldridge is OFY but thankfully backup Chandler Fields is more than a capable backup…..The Cajuns are the best team in the conference in our estimation but Troy is playing a better brand of football as noted on these pages for a few weeks…..and as evidenced by their dismantling of Georgia Southern last time out.
No leanage
44. Ohio St -13.5 Indiana (51.5)………..MEGALOCKS line – Ohio St -12
Vegas Implied Score – Ohio St 32.5 Indiana 19
It’s the game we’ve been waiting for!….Is Indiana THAT good?…We’ll they’ve played the #77 schedule but destroyed almost everyone in their path….QB Kurtis Rourke ** has been excellent but we worry a bit about a rushing attack that picked up a mere 40/122 yards L2G….Their DL is excellent (31 sacks, #11 FBS) and should be able to cause some issues for an offensive line that just lost their starting center for the season….How will the Indiana defense deal with the variety of highly-skilled weaponry that Ohio St features at RB/WR?….Indiana is ranked #3 in the country in total defense, #1 (!) in run D, and #13 in pass efficiency D but they’ve played a docket full of crappy offenses…..Indiana is off a bye and they’ve started fast in most of their games….Our fav play is probably Indiana first half (currently +7) but we haven’t got down yet and will wait and see if +7.5 becomes consensus and go from there.
** Hometown: Oakville, Ontario. Take a guided tour of the MEGALOCKS FAMILY HOMESTEAD next time you’re in the area. It’s fun for the entire family! And don’t forget to visit the gift shop!
Holding pattern as noted above.
UPDATE – no leanage
45. Virginia Tech -3 Duke (47)………..MEGALOCKS line – Virginia Tech -1.5
Vegas Implied Score – Virginia Tech 25 Duke 22
One of these teams is in an EPIC STRUGGLE to make a bowl game and it’s not Duke (7-3)…..The Hokies have been a disappointment this season (5-5) and they need to win one more game to get to the postseason (Virginia up next)….Virginia Tech’s starting QB Kyron Drones and star RB Bhayshul Tuten are listed as ‘questionable’ as we approach press time and that makes this game a really tough call…..Don’t forget that Duke gave YOUR Miami Hurricanes a battle for 3Q and they only lost to SMU by a point…..The Blue Devils might just sneak on the ML Underdog list posted on Friday.
No leanage
46. UCF -3 West Virginia (63)………..MEGALOCKS line – UCF -3.5
Vegas Implied Score – UCF 33 West Virginia 30
West Virginia has now been blown to bits in FOUR home games but don’t tell CROWD WILL BE ROCKING GUY as it just might be too much for him to comprehend…..The Mountaineers sit at 5-5 and need to find another win to get to a bowl game….The Knights have lost six of seven games but they outplayed Arizona St (!) in a tough loss last Saturday…..UCF appears refreshed and at 4-6 they’re in a position where they can’t afford to lose if they wanna get to the postseason….We prefer the Knights but MOB STEAM has driven the number from -1 to -3…..Could only consider UCF but we haven’t made it to the window yet.
No leanage
47. Texas Tech -3.5 Oklahoma St (67.5)………..MEGALOCKS line – Texas Tech -5.5
Vegas Implied Score -Texas Tech 35.5 Oklahoma St 32
Oklahoma St’s season has been an absolute disaster and they’ve lost seven games in a row after coming out of the chute at 3-0….Their defense is horrible but they’re got some decent weaponry on offense surrounding their erratic QB Alan Bowman (17-12 TD to INT)…..Texas Tech also doesn’t play much defense but they’ve got one of the best RBs in the nation in Tahj Brooks who…..wait for it….has rushed for 100+ yards in EVERY game he’s played this year (NINE) and a legit QB in Behren Morton….Lots of variance in potential outcomes for this game but we like Texas Tech at -3….Let’s wait to see if we can get it.
Holding pattern as noted above
UPDATE – no leanage
48. Fresno St -3 Colorado St (46)………..MEGALOCKS line – Fresno St -1.5
Vegas Implied Score – Fresno St 24.5 Colorado St 21.5
Fresno St is one of a dozen or so teams we’ve avoided playing on or against most weeks this season as they’ve been tough to predict….They’re off a bye week and whilst they’ve had their struggles on both sides of the football they haven’t had a stinker since a late September loss to UNLV….Colorado St is TWO games away from clinching a spot in the MW Championship Game so you know that UNLV fans everywhere will be pulling for the Bulldogs….Colorado St has developed a lethal rushing attack but that matches up well with what Fresno St can handle on defense.
No leanage
49. Nevada -3.5 Air Force (44.5)………..MEGALOCKS line – Nevada -3
Vegas Implied Score – Nevada 24 Air Force 20.5
Air Force is playing their best football of the season right now after installing Quentin Hayes at QB and they’ve rushed for 270/344 yards L2G….The defense is spending a lot less time on the field and they’ve really started to look good allowing 175/284/255 yards L3G…..Nevada isn’t going bowling and they’ve got a rivalry game with UNLV to end the season….They’ve allowed 274/170/242 yards on the ground L3G. ….They haven’t scored more than 24 points since Oct 12 and have tallied <100Y rushing 3L4G.
Lean – Air Force +3.5
Posted 2:00pm Nov 21
+3.5 is listed virtually everywhere
50. Michigan -10.5 Northwestern (36.5)………..MEGALOCKS line – Michigan -12
Vegas Implied Score – Michigan 23.5 Northwestern 13
We originally had an inkling to go with Michigan but upon further review we just can’t back them given the way that the rushing attack has gone down the CRAPPER the L4G (69/105/119/114) and whilst they need this game to go bowling (5-5; Ohio St next) Northwestern has a good enough defense to keep this within reasonable range heading into the 4Q.
No leanage
51. North Texas -2.5 East Carolina (72.5)………..MEGALOCKS line – Pick ’em
Vegas Implied Score – North Texas 37.5 East Carolina 35
This should be a BONKERS back-and-forth affair and it’s hard to predict who will come out on top…..The ARRRRRRRRR Pirates are in much better form and have been playing very well since the coaching change and switch at QB to Katin Houser….They’ve got six wins and will be must-watch TV in bowl season…..ARRRRRRRRRRRRRR…….We got the money going against our boys from North Texas last week and whilst they can’t play any defense they can SCORE the FOOTBALL and play much better in Denton…..GET CHO POPCONE, yo.
No leanage
52. UNC -3 Boston College (55)………..MEGALOCKS line – UNC -4
Vegas Implied Score – UNC 29 Boston College 26
Our numbers favor the Tar Heels in this match-up as they’re playing at PEAK 2024 UNC level right now but we can’t help that notice that whilst they’ve won three in a row those conquests came vs Virginia, the corpse of Florida St, and Wake Forest…..Meanwhile, Boston College has lost 4L5 games but two of those defeats came vs SMU (by 10) and LUA-VUH (by 4)…..Not sure what to make of the QB switch to Grayson James but BC seems more than happy to have moved on from your boy Thomas Castellanos who was a mild disappointment this season.
No leanage
53. Kansas St -8.5 Cincinnati (52.5)………..MEGALOCKS line – Kansas St -7.5
Vegas Implied Score – Kansas St 30.5 Cincinnati 22
We’ve had trouble figuring out Kansas St this season and they’ve lost two games in a row (Houston, Arizona St)…..QB Avery Johnson has been a major disappointment and now the Cats are dead in the Big 12 race….Cincinnati has lost three consecutive games and may have been a bit OVER THEIR SKIS earlier in the season when they got out to a 5-2 start.
No leanage
54. Jacksonville St -6 Sam Houston (56)………..MEGALOCKS line – Jacksonville St -7
Vegas Implied Score – Jacksonville St 31 Sam Houston 25
Our DEEP CUSA INSIDERS believe there’s value with the favorite based primarily on their ability to run the football (258 YPG, #4 FBS) but the reality is that they’ve only managed to beat FIU and Louisiana Tech by 3 and 7 points respectively in their L2G….We weren’t shocked with Sam Houston’s performance vs Kennesaw St last week but they’re still one of the better teams in the conference….Not gonna play the COCKS -6 but they’re a decent ML piece on our view for ML parlay players.
No leanage
55. Liberty -1 WKU (56)………..MEGALOCKS line – Liberty -2.5
Vegas Implied Score – Liberty 28.5 WKU 27.5
Liberty is RISING FROM THE ASHES in CUSA given that WKU was upset at home by Louisiana Tech last week….Liberty can now clinch a spot in the CUSA title game with wins over the Toppers and Sam Houston to finish the campaign….That should give them some juice in this spot….WKU is #105 running the ball, #109 stopping the run, and #117 in 3rd down defense…..Liberty has the HC edge and rushed for 309/339/273 L3G.
Lean – Liberty ML -115
Posted 9:37am Nov 22
-115 is consensus. We’ve seen as low as -105 so shop around.
56. James Madison -7 Appalachian St (59)………..MEGALOCKS line – James Madison -5.5
Vegas Implied Score – James Madison 33 Appalachian St 26
Our numbers side with the home underdog but there are a few things we can’t ignore….James Madison is #1 in the Sun Belt in total defense (App St #11), JMU leads the nation in turnover margin (+19)(!) whilst App St is near the bottom of the barrel (-11)….JMU leads the Sun Belt in sacks (32), and the Dukes have one of the best pass defenses in the country (#7 pass efficiency D, 54%, 11-17 TD to INT)…..Good situational spot for App St playing their final home game off a bye week.
No leanage
57. Colorado -2.5 Kansas (59.5)………..MEGALOCKS line – Colorado -3
Vegas Implied Score – Colorado 31 Kansas 28.5
After spending a lot of time on this game we just couldn’t convince ourselves to fade either team….Both squads are clearly playing their best football right now….Colorado has covered 8 (!) games in a row….Kansas has covered in four consecutive games and are coming off wins vs Iowa St and BYU…..Kansas has a yuuuge edge in running the football whilst Colorado’s DL has been a pleasant surprise in terms of stopping the run and getting after the passer…..The Buffs have an NFL QB and a ridiculous set of WRs….But Kansas has an excellent pair of CBs…..Our heads are spinning!
No leanage
58. Rutgers -1 Illinois (47.5)………..MEGALOCKS line – Rutgers -2.5
Vegas Implied Score – Rutgers 24.25 Illinois 23.25
Both squads are bowl eligible heading into this BAD BOY but it seems to be a better spot for the home team as Rutgers has shockingly become a team that can run AND pass the football thanks to 1,000-yard RB Kyle Monangai and THE GREEK RIFLE at QB (14-6 TD to INT)….Rutgers has thrown for 238/240/313/287 L4G and recall that they only averaged 138 (!) YPG thru the air in 2023……Illinois is coming off a pasting of Michigan St but we don’t think they’ll be able have too much success on the ground in this affair….Can QB Luke Altmyer put the team on his shoulders and lead them to a victory?….We’d feel more confident in Illinois’ chances if they had a good defense but it’s fairly average (#14 Big Ten run D, #10 pass efficiency D)…..Prefer Rutgers in this spot but just need to check a few more things.
Holding pattern as per above.
UPDATE – no leanage
59. Old Dominion -3 Marshall (51.5)………..MEGALOCKS line – Old Dominion -3
Vegas Implied Score – Old Dominion 27.25 Marshall 24.25
We think the Monarchs are the way to go in this game but we’ll see if a consensus -2.5 pops up again before we close up shop late Friday afternoon…….Marshall’s rushing attack has taken a yuuuge hit since star RB AJ Turner got banged up (9.2 YPC!!, did not play last week) and it seems as though he’ll be out again vs ODU…..Marshall found a way to beat Coastal Carolina at home last week despite being outgained 391-254….ODU is coming off one-score losses vs App St and James Madison….Marshall has the #101 run D in the FBS and the Monarchs can run the ball effectively with dual-threat QB Colton Joseph and RB Aaron Young (100Y each of L2G)…..ODU needs to win their next two games to make a bowl…..Marshall has a one-game lead in the FUN BELT East and it all might come down to next week’s road game at James Madison.
An ODU-related play is very likely to come later today.
UPDATE
Lean – Old Dominion -2.5 -120
Posted 4:30pm Nov 22
-2.5 -120 is consensus. The market is basically split at -2.5 -120 / -3 -105. We’ll take the -2.5 -120 on this game and the -3 -105 on the game below which has very similar pricing.
60. Arkansas St -3 ULM (52)………..MEGALOCKS line – Arkansas St -5
Vegas Implied Score – Arkansas St 27.5 ULM 24.5
The market just loves ULM this week and why wouldn’t it?….ULM has lost four in a row and been blown to bits in three of those games…..They put up 218/278 total yards L2G and have allowed 203/326/198/355 rushing yards L4G…..Arkansas St’s four losses came vs Michigan, Iowa St, Texas St, and Louisiana…..The Red Wolves have won and covered 14 in a row vs ULM.
An Arkansas St-related play is very likely to come later today. -2.5s are floating around will wait a bit and see if more MOB STEAM comes in on the Warhawks.
UPDATE
Lean – Arkansas St -3 -105
Posted 4:30pm Nov 22
Consensus is -2.5 -120 (SEE NOTE ABOVE FOR GAME #59)
‘Official play’ means that this is one of our favorite plays of the week (perceived value, match-up, coaching, trends, etc.). We’re currently investing 25% more on these plays vs our ‘leans’. We’ll normally have two or three of these choices per week.
‘Lean’ means that we’re placing a standard size wager on the game. We’ll normally have about ten of these plays per week. Many members prefer to pick and choose amongst these games when finalizing their weekly investment cards so we’ll continue to refer to them as ‘leans’.
‘No leanage’ means that we won’t have any action on the game.
Team totals – We’ll list the implied number based on the point spread and total when our analysis is posted. If a team total ends up being an ‘official play’ we’ll post a widely available number at the time of pick release.