Week 13 – Texas A&M at Auburn
posted November 22
The Game
It’s time for some sweet Saturday night SEC action as Texas A&M travels down to Auburn to face the Tigers. Texas A&M still controls their own destiny for a shot at the SEC crown and a CFP appearance but they can’t afford another loss. Will they be able to avoid looking ahead to their meeting with Texas next week? Auburn is on life support in terms of making a bowl game (4-6) and they’ve gotta be kicking themselves for blowing a bunch of games earlier in the season. Do they have the MINERALS to come up with a big game and ruin the Aggies’ season?
The Details
Texas A&M -2.5 Auburn (46.5)
MEGALOCKS LINE – Pick ’em
“Vegas” Implied Projected Score: Texas A&M 24.5 Auburn 22
Texas A&M offense vs Auburn defense
The Aggies have done a good job with the ground attack this season (#12 FBS) and whilst they’ll certainly miss #1 RB Le’Veon Moss who’s OFY due to injury they’ve still got a decent (but not lethal) set of RBs including Amari Daniels (550, 5.6). The best news for the run game is the mobility of QB Marcel Reed who can be a nightmare for defenses when he takes off and runs. The A&M THROW GAME leaves a lot to be desired (#96) as Reed is still leaning the ropes and nobody on the team has more than 400 receiving yards on the season. Auburn has one of the most underrated stop units in the country (#13 total D, #12 run D, #31 pass efficiency D) so the Aggies will have to work for everything they get on Saturday. Fun Fact: Auburn has held their L3 opponents to 218/227/224 total yards and they’ve yielded <100 rushing yards in four straight games.
Auburn offense vs Texas A&M defense
The Tigers have been able to move the ball on the ground (#53) and thru the air (#37) but they’ve been brutal in the red zone (#112) and have made a mess of things with turnovers (19, #117). Auburn boasts one of the best RBs in the country in Jarquez Hunter (1,015, 7.0), an experienced (albeit, somewhat flaky) QB in Payton Thorne (18-7 TD to INT), and a pair of emerging stars at WR in KeAndre Lambert-Smith and Cam Coleman. Texas A&M has been MEH at rushing the passer (21 sacks, tied for 2nd lowest total in the SEC) so Thorne should be able to operate without a ton of pressure. The Aggies have been solid vs the run (#40) and the pass (#24 pass efficiency D) so Auburn is also going to have to take full advantage of their opportunities. They definitely have the ability to hit some big plays in the THROW GAME with their WR duo but they haven’t clicked too often in that regard this season. <grabs popcorn>
Trends, Intangibles, and More!
The home team has won and covered in each of the L3 meetings……The intrepid Phil Steele gives Texas A&M a yuuuge advantage in special teams play (#15 vs 82).
Summary
This season has been a rough ride for Auburn fans as they’ve watched the Tigers puke all over themselves on multiple occasions and magically turn WINS into LOSSES. It’s not always wise to bank on the tide turning but we think Auburn has the better offensive weaponry at RB/WR and a defense that’s playing it’s best football as we approach press time.
Conclusion
We’ll have an Auburn-related selection at some point today. At a minimum, they’ll be part of the Friday ML Underdog selections. Stay tuned!
UPDATE
Official pick – Auburn +2.5 -108
Sent 4:45pm Nov 22
+2.5 is consensus.
For those that want to buy to +3, we wouldn’t pay any more than +3 -125. That’s available now at one or two shops but we’ll use +2.5 -108 for grading purposes.
‘Official play’ means that this is one of our favorite plays of the week (perceived value, match-up, coaching, trends, etc.). We’re currently investing 25% more on these plays vs our ‘leans’. We’ll normally have two or three of these choices per week.
‘Lean’ means that we’re placing a standard size wager on the game. We’ll normally have about ten of these plays per week. Many members prefer to pick and choose amongst these games when finalizing their weekly investment cards so we’ll continue to refer to them as ‘leans’.
‘No leanage’ means that we won’t have any action on the game.
Team totals – We’ll list the implied number based on the point spread and total when our analysis is posted. If a team total ends up being an ‘official play’ we’ll post a widely available number at the time of pick release.