UPDATE: Thursday 2:50pm. We’ll be adding at least one futures hedge before 10am Friday.
UPDATE: Friday 8:00am. We added an idea for a “hedge” on our outstanding season win totals. Here’s a link to the Season Win Total blog post for those interested in checking it out.
https://megalocks.co/2024-season-win-totals-finalized-august-18th-12-plays-updated-nov-29/
UPDATE: Friday 9:30am. We added two “hedge” futures plays. Here’s a link to the Futures blog post for those interested in checking it out.
https://megalocks.co/2024-futures-and-props-finalized-aug-17-11-markets-and-commentary-posted/
UPDATE: Friday 3:50pm. We’re done for the week. ML Underdogs are posted. Only one biggie size writeup. We’ll do three next week, and as always, we’ll do a full write-up for EVERY playoff game and EVERY bowl game.
HAPPY THANKSGIVING, play safe, and enjoy the games!
Week 14 QUICK TAKES – College Football Predictions
Here are some QUICK TAKES on the games that did not make the cut for a longer write-up this week.
We’ll get things finished up by 5pm Friday and let you know here when we’re done.
Let’s gooooo!
Handy index: Quick Takes
‘Official’ picks in blue. ‘Leans’ in green. Waiting on a number or information to make a potential play in orange.
- Toledo at Akron (Tuesday)
- Kent St at Buffalo (Tuesday)
- Oregon St at Boise St (Friday)
- Mississippi St at Ole Miss (Friday)
- Oklahoma St at Colorado (Friday)
- UAB at Charlotte
- Coastal Carolina at Georgia St
- Purdue at Indiana
- Maryland at Penn St
- Arizona St at Arizona
- FAU at Tulsa
- Houston at BYU
- Fresno St at UCLA
- Kennesaw St at Louisiana Tech
- Wyoming at Washington St
- Nevada at UNLV
- Ball St at Ohio (Friday)
- TCU at Cincinnati
- Memphis at Tulane (Thursday)
- Pittsburgh at Boston College
- Connecticut at UMass
- Miami Ohio at Bowling Green (Friday)
- CORN at Iowa (Friday)
- West Virginia at Texas Tech
- LUA-VUH at Kentucky
- Washington at Oregon
- Virginia at Virginia Tech
- Rutgers at Michigan St
- MTSU at FIU
- New Mexico at Hawaii
- Michigan at Ohio St
- Illinois at Northwestern
- Duke at Wake Forest
- Miami at Syracuse
- Florida at Florida St
- Utah St at Colorado St (Friday)
- Stanford at San Jose St (Friday)
- Minnesota at Wisconsin (Friday)
- Georgia Tech at Georgia (Friday)
- Utah at UCF (Friday)
- UTSA at Army
- Eastern Michigan at Western Michigan
- Kansas at Baylor
- Kansas St at Iowa St
- Oklahoma at LSU
- Notre Dame at USC
- Louisiana at ULM
- NC State at UNC
- WOO PIG at Missouri
- Central Michigan at Northern Illinois
- Old Dominion at Arkansas St
- Marshall at James Madison
- Appalachian St at Georgia Southern
- Texas St at South Alabama (Friday)
- UTEP at New Mexico St
- Jacksonville St at Western Kentucky
- California at SMU
- Auburn at ROLL TIDE
- Navy at East Carolina (Friday)
- South Florida at Rice
- North Texas at Temple
- Southern Mississippi at Troy
- Tennessee at Vanderbilt
- Air Force at San Diego St
- Texas at Texas A&M
- South Carolina at Clemson
QUICK TAKES
1. Toledo -8 Akron (48.5)…………MEGALOCKS line – Toledo -9.5
Vegas Implied Score – Toledo 28.25 Akron 20.25
The Rockets should be close to double-digit favorites according to our DEEP MAC INSIDERS but we question their motivation for this game as they travel to Akron on a sleepy Tuesday night whilst dead in the MAC race and knowing that they’ll be heading to a bowl game….Akron showed some life last week in a blowout win over Kent St, but that was Kent St.
No leanage
2. Buffalo -21 Kent St (49)…………MEGALOCKS line – Buffalo -23
Vegas Implied Score – Buffalo 35 Kent St 14
Buffalo has been playing really well since MAC play kicked into gear and believe it or not they still have a shot to make the MAC title game although the probability of that happening is very close to zero…..Kent St had an all-in game vs Akron last week and looked horrible as per usual…..Favorite or pass situation and we’ll take a seat for now.
NOTE – As always, check out what our WEATHER HOTTIES have to say about this week’s games on our Weather page….This game in particular may feature dicey conditions.
No leanage
3. Boise St -20 Oregon St (56.5)…………MEGALOCKS line – Boise St -18.5
Vegas Implied Score – Boise St 38.25 Oregon St 18.25
Boise St hasn’t been as sharp as they were earlier in the season but they’ve already locked in home field for the Mountain West Championship Game…..They’ll host either UNLV or Colorado St….Oregon St had been looking brutal until their upset win over Washington St last week…..There’s a good chance that the Beavers left it all on the field last week as they won’t be playing in a bowl game…..Boise St realistically just needs a win any way they can get it to stay in the CFP race.
No leanage
4. Ole Miss -26.5 Mississippi St (61.5)…………MEGALOCKS line – Ole Miss -24.5
Vegas Implied Score – Ole Miss 44 Mississippi St 17.5
This is a really tricky game to handicap as under normal circumstances it would be a NAME THE SCORE situation but we’re not sure what to make of the Rebels’ motivation after they SHAT the BED last week vs the Gators…..Maybe some SAFE and EFFECTIVE “analytics” will tell them to go for it on 4th and 37 from their own 2-yard line early in the 2nd quarter?….That possibility alone is reason enough to tune in for this game….Mississippi St can SCORE the FOOTBALL but the Ole Miss stop unit is still one of the best in the nation…..Dog or pass, and we’ll almost certainly be on the investing sidelines for this tilt.
No leanage
5. Colorado -17 Oklahoma St (65.5)…………MEGALOCKS line – Colorado -16
Vegas Implied Score – Colorado 41.25 Oklahoma St 24.25
The Buffs got smoked by Kansas last week and now they need a win and some help to get into the Big 12 Championship Game….Sadly, the tiebreakers don’t look promising for Colorado so all they can do is win and hope things go their way….The Oklahoma St team that showed up last week vs Texas Tech (L 56-48) might have enough firepower to cover the number in this game and note that they went with true freshman Maealiuaki Smith at QB vs the Red Raiders and he had over 300Y passing….Colorado will almost certainly win by double digits but at least the Cowboys have a reason to keep playing hard as they may have found some life with the new QB…..The defense still reeks, though.
No leanage
6. Charlotte -3 UAB (58)…………MEGALOCKS line – Charlotte -3
Vegas Implied Score – Charlotte 30.5 UAB 27.5
Not a game we’re gonna get involved with…..These are two of the worst teams in the AAC but both squads are coming off impressive wins, particularly UAB who smoked Rice last time out.
No leanage
7. Georgia St -1 Coastal Carolina (55.5)…………MEGALOCKS line – Coastal Carolina -1
Vegas Implied Score – Georgia St 28.25 Coastal Carolina 27.25
Georgia St finally showed what they were capable of last week as they took down mighty Texas St as yuuuuge underdogs whilst Coastal Carolina laid an egg at home vs Georgia Southern…..The Panthers are home for the holidays (3-8) whilst Coastal Carolina needs to win to get to a bowl game….Slight preference to the CHANTS but they’ve been very underwhelming on the road this season.
No leanage
8. Indiana -29 Purdue (56.5)…………MEGALOCKS line – Indiana -27
Vegas Implied Score – Indiana 42.75 Purdue 13.75
Indiana got smoked by Ohio St last week but they’re still a virtual LOCK for the CFP as long as they take care of Purdue…..BOILER UP fought to the final whistle at Michigan St last time out and whilst they should get destroyed in this game it won’t take too many points to cover this number…..Tempting to take the dog but they’ve been so horrible for most of the season that it’s just impossible to hit the ‘submit’ button on the betting app.
No leanage
9. Penn St -24.5 Maryland (50)…………MEGALOCKS line – Penn St -21
Vegas Implied Score – Penn St 37.25 Maryland 12.75
Penn St is another team locked into the CFP provided that they take care of business vs the fading Terrapins who’ve had a disappointing campaign (4-7)….Prefer the favorite but it’s not a bargain to back them this week.
No leanage
10. Arizona St -8.5 Arizona (53.5)…………MEGALOCKS line – Arizona St -10
Vegas Implied Score – Arizona St 31 Arizona 22.5
We definitely prefer the favorite in this spot based on the numbers and the fact that Arizona St just needs to win this game to secure a spot in the Big 12 Championship Game…..On the flipside, this is RIVARLY WEEKEND and the Cats would like nothing better than to ruin Arizona St’s chances at glory…..Arizona St is 6-2 in Big 12 action but they’ve only outscored the opposition 227-193.
No leanage
11. FAU -1.5 Tulsa (57)…………MEGALOCKS line – Pick ’em
Vegas Implied Score – FAU 29.25 Tulsa 27.75
This is another disgusting game from an investment perspective as it features a struggling FAU squad with an interim HC vs….wait for it….a struggling Golden Hurricane outfit that’s been an embarrassment this year and they just fired their HC…..That could be a motivational bump for this game so we’d have to say “dog or pass”.
No leanage
12. BYU -13 Houston (41.5)…………MEGALOCKS line – BYU -12
Vegas Implied Score – BYU 27.25 Houston 14.25
YIKES….BYU was looking like GOLD, Jerry….GOLD!….And then they lost two games in a row….Now they need to beat the scrappy Cougars at home and get some help from the other Big 12 games….We’d like to back BYU in this spot but Houston plays good defense and they’ve already posted upsets over TCU, Utah, and Kansas St…..This is Houston’s bowl game and with a low total it’s hard to back BYU laying almost two TDs.
No leanage
13. UCLA -9.5 Fresno St (46.5)…………MEGALOCKS line – UCLA -10
Vegas Implied Score – UCLA 28 Fresno St 18.5
The Bruins gave it 100% vs USC last week and came up a bit short and will be home for the holidays (4-7)….They’ve been more competitive than we thought heading into the season but it’s a bit tricky to gauge their motivation at this point in time.,..Fresno St has no shot of running on UCLA (#7 run D) so we prefer the favorite in this spot….We’re just not crazy about the price.
No leanage
14. Louisiana Tech -12 Kennesaw St (43)…………MEGALOCKS line – Louisiana Tech -12
Vegas Implied Score – Louisiana Tech 27.5 Kennesaw St 15.5
Louisiana Tech won’t be participating in bowl season and this is yet another team that has questionable motivation heading into the final week of the regular season…..Kennesaw St has been very competitive the L5G….They beat Liberty (!), lost to WKU by 17, lost to UTEP in 2OT, lost to Sam Houston by 8, and upset FIU….Our numbers are neutral on this BAD BOY.
No leanage
15. Washington St -17 Wyoming (58.5)…………MEGALOCKS line – Washington St -15
Vegas Implied Score – Washington St 37.75 Wyoming 20.75
The Cougars have had a successful campaign no matter how you slice it…..They were cut adrift by the “PAC-12” and lost a ton of talent from last year’s squad but here we are….8-3 and heading to a bowl game….Wyoming gave Boise St all they could handle last week but they’re still overmatched from a talent perspective…..Also note that Wyoming’s better QB (Kaden Anderson) is listed as doubtful for this match as we approach press time.
No leanage
16. UNLV -17.5 Nevada (55.5)…………MEGALOCKS line – UNLV -19
Vegas Implied Score – UNLV 36.5 Nevada 19
It’s simple for UNLV….Beat Nevada, win the FREMONT CANNON, and set up a rematch with Boise St in the Mountain West Championship Game….The Rebels (9-2) outgained San Jose St by over 200 yards last week in some nasty conditions (W 27-16) and their only two losses have come vs Syracuse (OT) and Boise St (lost by 5)…..Nevada has been playing hard down the stretch but have still found a way to lose five games in a row after a decent start…..Prefer the fav but there’s no way we don’t get a max effort from the Pack who’d love to do their part to help ruin UNLV’s season.
No leanage
17. Ohio -15 Ball St (52.5)…………MEGALOCKS line – Ohio -14
Vegas Implied Score – Ohio 33.75 Ball St 18.75
The Bobcats are moving like a TREMENDOUS MACHINE having won four in a row by a combined tally of 147-33 (!) and if they beat the Cardinals on Saturday they’re off to the MAC title game!…..Ball St has been scrappy for the majority of the season but they couldn’t stay with Bowling Green last week…..Line looks about right.
No leanage
18. TCU -2.5 Cincinnati (58)…………MEGALOCKS line – TCU -3
Vegas Implied Score – TCU 30.25 Cincinnati 27.75
Tough game to call….On one hand you have a TCU squad that’s been playing much better recently (won 4L5 games) although to be fair, only one of those wins came vs a decent team (Texas Tech)…..On the other hand you have a Cincinnati team that’s reeling
(lost four in a row) having faced a really tough set of foes recently…..The Bearcats also need to win this game if they wanna participate in bowl season…..TCU is already bowl eligible and they’re going on the road.
No leanage
19. Tulane -14 Memphis (56.5)…………MEGALOCKS line – Tulane -11.5
Vegas Implied Score – Tulane 35.25 Memphis 21.25
We’ll side with the underdog in the OLD MAN RIVER RIVALRY even though you know we think the world of Tulane and the job that HC Jon Sumrall is doing down in New Orleans….Tulane has won 8 (!) in a row but they’ve played a collection of turds for the most part during this HEATER….When playing teams with a pulse this year they lost to Kansas St, lost to Oklahoma, and beat the Cajuns on the road by 8….To be fair, as we’ve noted on these pages before, Tulane has outscored AAC competition BIGLY (306-86) so they’re clearly playing very well….Memphis has a decent defense (#18 rush, #45 pass efficiency D) but they’ve been subpar vs the better offenses on their schedule….The good news for the Tigers is that they’ve got one of the most underrated RBs in the country in Mario Anderson Jr (1,115, 16 TD; four 100-yard games L5) and a veteran QB who doesn’t make many mistakes (21-6 TD to INT, 1.4% INT)…..Tulane has already clinched a spot in the AAC Championship Game and whilst they still need a win to keep their fading CFP hopes alive, the motivational edge probably lies slightly with Memphis who’ll be 100% in for this rivalry tilt on Thursday night.
Lean – Memphis +14
Posted 10:10am Nov 26
+14 is listed virtually everywhere
20. Boston College -4.5 Pittsburgh (48.5)…………MEGALOCKS line – Boston College -3
Vegas Implied Score – Boston College 26.5 Pittsburgh 22
We could only look to the favorite in this spot as the Eagles are coming off a blowout win over UNC whilst the Panthers have lost four in a row after a 7-0 start….They’re also likely to be without starting QB Eli Holstein once again….There is a glimmer of hope for Pitt as they have the ability to do some damage thru the air vs a weak BC secondary but if they wanna stay in this game they’ll need the defense to be much better than they were last week vs LUA-VUH…..Fav or pass….We’ll take a pass for now.
No leanage
21. Connecticut -10.5 UMass (49.5)…………MEGALOCKS line – Connecticut -12
Vegas Implied Score – Connecticut 30 UMass 19.5
This is an underappreciated rivalry week game as these two squads play for the FRIENDS OF COMMUNISM TROPHY…..UConn is off to a bowl game and SEASON WIN TOTAL CLUB has been very pleased with their efforts (7-4)….The Huskies are coming off a trip to Syracuse in which they allowed 470 (!) passing yards (L 31-24) and this will be their 3rd consecutive road game (bye week Nov 16)…..UMass has been a scrappy outfit for most of the season and they even game mighty Georgia a decent game for a half last week (down 28-14; 248-209 yard edge for the Bulldogs).
No leanage
22. Bowling Green -2.5 Miami Ohio (41.5)…………MEGALOCKS line – Bowling Green -1
Vegas Implied Score – Bowling Green 22 Miami Ohio 19.5
WHOA, NELLIE….We’ve got a play-in battle to see who’s off to the MAC Championship Game and both of these squads are on 6-game (!) winning streaks….We prefer the Redhawks in this game as they’re #1 in MAC play in YPP offense and YPP defense…..Their YPP margin in MAC games is 2.15 whilst BG clocks in at 0.55…..Bowling Green may be without star TE Harold Fannin Jr who’s a legit SUPERSTAR (1,290, 9 TD)….He’s a game-time decision as we approach press time…..Let’s see if a Miami +3 pops up and go from there…..Very unlikely but you never know.
Holding pattern as per above.
UPDATE – No leanage
23. Iowa -5.5 CORN (39.5)…………MEGALOCKS line – Iowa -5
Vegas Implied Score – Iowa 22.5 CORN 17
WOOOO! We’re very happy for the GREAT STATE OF NEBRASKA and Cornhusker fans as they’ll be going bowling for the first time since 2016 (!)….CORN may still be feeling the aftereffects of the post-game celebration after the Wisconsin game and Iowa has won 8L9 meetings….This looks like a good spot for Iowa but there’s no way we can back them given their horrid situation at QB…They didn’t need to run the ball vs Maryland last week (268 rush, 76 pass) but they’ll need some kind of THROW GAME this week….Line looks about right as we’ve got Iowa about two points better on a neutral site.
No leanage
24. Texas Tech -3.5 West Virginia (64.5)…………MEGALOCKS line – Texas Tech -5
Vegas Implied Score – Texas Tech 34 West Virginia 30.5
The Mountaineers came thru big time for ML UNDERDOG CLUB last week and they’ve won 3L4G and are bowl eligible…..That probably saved HC Neal Brown’s job…….The run game is heating up (200+ rush 3L4G) and it’s great to see Garrett Greene back at QB….It’s still hard to trust that defense though especially the secondary….and that’s bad news when facing a Texas Tech squad that just put up 56 points at Oklahoma St…..Slight preference to the home team but they don’t play any defense at all.
No leanage
25. LUA-VUH -3.5 Kentucky (48.5)…………MEGALOCKS line – LUA-VUH -5
Vegas Implied Score – LUA-VUH 26 Kentucky 22.5
This is an easy game for us to put in the “pass” bucket….The Cardinals have a yuuuuge edge on offense (#15 total offense vs #115) whilst Kentucky has the better stop unit (#37 vs #62)…..We prefer the coaching and overall weaponry that LUA-VUH has to offer but Kentucky is 5-0 SU/ATS L5 in the series.
No leanage
26. Oregon -19 Washington (50.5)…………MEGALOCKS line – Oregon -17
Vegas Implied Score – Oregon 34.75 Washington 15.75
We’ll roll with the underdog in this one as Oregon has already booked a spot in the Big Ten Championship Game and we see no reason for a 110% effort and/or playing guys that need a bit of rest before the real games begin….They may get stud WR Tez Johnson back for this one but it doesn’t seem smart to give him full reps after missing some time with a shoulder injury….They’ve only put up 354/363 yards L2G and Washington has the #7 pass efficiency D in the nation and they rank #1 in 30+ yard pass plays allowed (5)(!)….Washington is 0-4 ON THE HIGHWAY this season but all of those games were long and unfamiliar trips (Rutgers/Indiana/Iowa/Penn St) and Eugene is a place they know well….Washington’s starting QB Will Rogers is a crafty veteran but he’s struggled a bit lately….The good news is that backup QB Demond Williams Jr. has got a taste in every game this season and he got some serious work in the L2G vs UCLA/Penn St…..Both of those squads have solid stop units and Williams did well with his arm and devastating scrambling ability….If the Huskies can get close to their team total we think they’ll get the cover……31-13 would suit us just fine.
Lean – Washington +19
Posted 3:28pm Nov 26
+19 is the clear consensus. You can find +19.5 if you shop around.
27. Virginia Tech -7 Virginia (47.5)………..MEGALOCKS line – Virginia Tech -7
Vegas Implied Score – Virginia Tech 27.25 Virginia 20.25
This is one of the most lopsided series in the country as the Hokies have dominated since the TURN OF THE CENTURY winning an impossible 18 of the last 19 meetings (14-5 ATS)….We’d love to back them in this spot but they’ve been a major disappointment this season (5-6) and have dropped three straight games….The QB situation is in flux and the defense is getting worse…Thankfully for Virginia Tech, Virginia has lost 5L6 games and are coming off blowout losses vs Notre Dame and SMU…..We’re almost always down with some SWEET ACTION on the Commonwealth Cup but we’ll have to take a pass in 2024.
No leanage
28. Michigan St -2 Rutgers (48)…………MEGALOCKS line – Michigan St -2.5
Vegas Implied Score – Michigan St 25 Rutgers 23
Yes, guy.
Michigan St got to the window for SEASON WIN TOTAL CLUB last week vs the CORPSE of Purdue but it wasn’t easy….Now they need one more win to get to a bowl game and whilst we are SPARTY TRUTHERS there’s no doubt that QB Aidan Chiles makes too many mistakes (12-12 TD to INT) and their secondary is disgusting…..The good news for Michigan St is that Rutgers is already bowl eligible and they’re coming off a last-second loss that you need to read about in our AWARD-WINNING Week 13 Boxscore and Wagering Review post…..The Scarlet Knights have struggled on defense but they’ve got enough weaponry on offense to win this game…..Looks like a coin-toss.
No leanage
29. FIU -9 MTSU (52)…………MEGALOCKS line – FIU -8
Vegas Implied Score – FIU 30.5 MTSU 21.5
The Panthers are 3-8 but as SEASON WIN TOTAL CLUB is all too aware, they’ve lost a small handful of close games, many of which have probably (but hopefully not) drove thousands of fans and sports investors into a tailspin of drinking gallons of hard liquor and engaging in hard core drug use….There was no excuse for blowing a 9-point lead vs Kennesaw St last week but the good news is that they get one of the worst teams imaginable at home this week in MTSU….There’s no way we can trust FIU laying almost double-digits but the Blue Raiders are clearly unbackable at any price at this point.
No leanage
30. New Mexico -2.5 Hawaii (61.5)…………MEGALOCKS line – New Mexico -3
Vegas Implied Score – New Mexico 32 Hawaii 29.5
The Lobos are one win away from getting to a bowl game in year one of the Bronco Mendenhall regime and they’ve got one of the most dynamic players in the Group of Five in QB Devon Dampier whom we’ve mentioned numerous times on these fine pages (2,592 pass, 12-12 TD to INT; 1,061 rush, 16 TD)…..New Mexico has a devastating offense but they’ve also got one of the worst defenses in the nation (484 YPG, #131 FBS)…..Hawaii has been a disappointment on offense but their defense had been pretty good……until the L2G when they allowed 580/465 yards…..This is the Rainbow Warriors’ “bowl game” so maybe they show up with a max effort?…..Very fitting that this is the final game of the regular season and a true LATE NIGHT DEGENERATE SPECIAL…..Prefer the Lobos but not sure we’ll get to the window.
No leanage
31. Ohio St -20.5 Michigan (43.5)…………MEGALOCKS line – Ohio St -19.5
Vegas Implied Score – Ohio St 32 Michigan 11.5
It’s PAYBACK time (in theory) for Ohio St as Michigan has OWNED DAT AZZ three years in a row…..Ohio St just might be the best team in the country but they haven’t been as explosive as anticipated on offense…..However, the defense has been a BRICK WALL (242 YPG, #1 FBS)….The Buckeyes have allowed 15/7/0/13/17 since the Oregon loss and we’re having trouble envisioning how Michigan will SCORE the FOOTBALL in this game…..At least they’ve got some threat of a passing attack with Davis Warren at QB and they might be able to run it a bit, but JEEPERS, it’s gonna be tough sledding….Michigan has played fantastic on defense the L2G and one of those tilts was on the road at Indiana…..Slightest of preference to Michigan, maybe a 1st half line (+11.5 at press time) or an Ohio St TT under 32ish?…Ohio St just needs to win by one point to get to the Big Ten Championship Game so whilst it might be nice to run up the score it probably wouldn’t make a whole lot of sense to pour it on and risk injuries…..Don’t think we’re gonna get to the window on this one.
No leanage
32. Illinois -7.5 Northwestern (44)…………MEGALOCKS line – Illinois -9.5
Vegas Implied Score – Illinois 25.75 Northwestern 18.25
We’ll pass on this one as Illinois is coming off a miracle win over Rutgers and that game marked the first time that they’d put up more than 400Y of offense since the middle of the season when they beat Purdue…..They’re already in a bowl game…..Northwestern just got their teeth kicked in by Michigan and Ohio St and will have an easier time getting things done on offense this week…..They still play good defense too…Would want double-digits to play the dog but here we are.
No leanage
33. Duke -4 Wake Forest (53)…………MEGALOCKS line – Duke -5.5
Vegas Implied Score – Duke 28.5 Wake Forest 24.5
We’re close to pulling the trigger on the Dukies as they’ve quietly put together an eight-win season so far, although to be fair, it’s come vs weak competition overall and they’ve been outgained by 65 YPG (!) in ACC play (WF – 98)….However, Duke has the yuuuge advantage on defense (#2 YPP ACC, Wake #16) and they’re +24 (!) in sacks whilst the Demon Deacons are (-14)…..The last two meetings have been decided by three points (both Duke wins)…..Duke’s margin of victory over Power 4 teams this season…..1/7/10/3/6……Need a bit more time to noodle on this one and we are not laying more than -4.
Holding pattern as per above
UPDATE – No leanage
34. Miami -10.5 Syracuse (67)…………MEGALOCKS line – Miami -10
Vegas Implied Score – Miami 38.75 Syracuse 28.25
YOUR Miami Hurricanes have a chance to make the ACC Championship Game with a win over the potent Orange in the dome on Saturday afternoon…..Miami has their flaws, but they did outgain Wake Forest 508-193 last week in a 42-14 win off the bye week….That wasn’t good enough for those with MIAMI HURRICANES DERANGEMENT SYNDROME (MHDS) because apparently points in the 4th quarter don’t count…..Their offense has been inconsistent since the Florida St game but they still have the ability to get hot and put up points quickly….The defense can’t be saved at this point but they just need to “not suck” to give the team a chance to win…..Syracuse is gonna have problems running on Miami but that’s probably ok since they have the #2 passing offense in the nation….We aren’t laying double-digits in a high-pressure spot but Miami should be able to slow down a one-dimensional offense with a statue at QB who’s more than capable of throwing INTs (26-12 TD to INT) and note that Miami has been opportunistic in the secondary (14 INT, #11 FBS)…..We’ll call for a 7-14 point win and hope they don’t choke…..Just kidding….Not really.
No leanage
35. Florida -15 Florida St (45.5)…………MEGALOCKS line – Florida -16.5
Vegas Implied Score – Florida 30.25 Florida St 15.25
It’s a “favorite or pass” situation for us as the Gators are the far superior team but they’re coming off a yuuuge win over Ole Miss and a brutal four-game stretch (Ole Miss/LSU/Texas/Georgia)…..This is Florida St’s “bowl game” and an opportunity to end the year on a positive note.
No leanage
36. Colorado St -6 Utah St (58.5)…………MEGALOCKS line – Colorado St -5
Vegas Implied Score – Colorado St 32.25 Utah St 26.25
Tough game to call as we’ve got the hot offense (Utah St) that’s put up 41/55 L2G vs the team that runs the ball and plays good defense (Colorado St)……Utah St doesn’t believe in defense as a general rule but they’ve been decent the L2G…..Maybe we’ll see Bryson Barnes back at QB who came off the bench last week to throw 3 TDs and rush for almost 200Y?….Colorado St will be prepared for that possibility unlike SD St and the Rams are built to win late in the season in cold weather….The big issue with backing Colorado St is that they almost certainly blew a shot at the MW title game after losing to Fresno St last week…..They’re done in that regard if UNLV beats Nevada as yuuuuge favorites.
No leanage
37. San Jose St -3 Stanford (55.5)…………MEGALOCKS line – San Jose St -1
Vegas Implied Score – San Jose St 29.25 Stanford 26.25
Our numbers show a bit of “value” with Stanford but their season is over and they just blew the BIG GAME with their hated rivals from Cal…..San Jose St is a one-trick pony (THROW GAME) but that trick should be able to do some damage vs the Stanford secondary.
No leanage
38. Wisconsin -2.5 Minnesota (41.5)…………MEGALOCKS line – Pick ’em
Vegas Implied Score – Wisconsin 22 Minnesota 19.5
The battle for PAUL BUNYAN’S AXE goes at high noon on Friday and these teams have split the L6 meetings….We have the Gophers as a 2.5 fav on a neutral field and make it a complete coin toss in Madison by the numbers…..The spot favors the Badgers as they need another win to make a bowl game (5-6) and Minnesota is coming off a heartbreaking one-point loss to Penn St…..Note that Wisconsin has been outgained in four consecutive games and appear to be getting worse as the season moves along which isn’t great, yo.
No leanage
39. Georgia -19.5 Georgia Tech (53)…………MEGALOCKS line – Georgia -18
Vegas Implied Score – Georgia 36.25 Georgia Tech 16.75
The Dawgs are off to the SEC Championship Game and will hope to skate past Georgia Tech by any means necessary this week….We’d love to see Georgia Tech play with a 100% healthy Haynes King at QB but that won’t be the case….Backup Aaron Philo has only thrown 1 TD pass in 74 attempts and it’s gonna be tough to hang around in this one if they can’t do damage thru the air….King is limited to being just a running threat for now….The Yellow Jackets will be able to run the ball with some success and that makes this a tricky game to handicap….It’ll prevent a complete blowout but will it be enough to cover the number?
No leanage
40. UCF -9.5 Utah (47.5)…………MEGALOCKS line – UCF -7.5
Vegas Implied Score – UCF 28.5 Utah 19
The Utes have lost seven games in a row and they’re down to their 4th (!) starting QB….Thankfully they’ve still got a rock solid defense that’s stout vs the run which is a great matchup vs UCF….But can they do enough on offense to make any noise in this game?…..UCF has lost seven of eight and whilst they’ve got a promising QB under center in Dylan Rizk he doesn’t have much mobility which is a problem when running Gus Malzahn’s offense….Prefer the favorite but the tax is steep.
No leanage
41. Army -7 UTSA (55)…………MEGALOCKS line – Army -5
Vegas Implied Score – Army 31 UTSA 24
Army is coming off a bludgeoning at the hands of Notre Dame (L 49-14) and they’ve played a comically easy schedule outside of their battle with the Irish….They’ve got yuuuuge games on deck…..Tulane in the AAC Championship Game (!) followed by the annual slugfest with their hated rivals from Navy……UTSA is excellent vs the run (101 YPG, #9 FBS) and have put up 529/681/408/546/485 yards L5G…..QB Owen McCown is quickly becoming one of our favorites (23-7 TD to INT, 253 rush yards).
Lean – UTSA +7
Posted 4:03pm Nov 27
+7 is listed virtually everywhere
42. Western Michigan -6.5 Eastern Michigan (56.5)…………MEGALOCKS line – Western Michigan -5.5
Vegas Implied Score – Western Michigan 31.5 Eastern Michigan 25
It’s a rivalry game and the visitor is on a 10-7-1 ATS run L18……Western Michigan started out like a HOUSAFIRE in MAC play but quickly folded like a CHEAP SUIT once the level of competition increased…….Eastern Michigan doesn’t have as much talent but they’ve got the HC advantage and note that the Eagles are excellent as a road dog ATS….Both teams are fighting for bowl eligibility at 5-6 so it adds extra SPICE to this MAC classic…Prefer the dog but our GO PRICES never got home (WM -4, EM +7.5).
No leanage
43. Kansas -1.5 Baylor (61.5)…………MEGALOCKS line – Baylor -2
Vegas Implied Score – Baylor 31.5 Kansas 30
Both teams are impossible fades right now…..YOUR Baylor Bears have been playing great football recently behind ALL-MEGALOCKS TEAM QB Sawyer Robertson and a solid rushing attack….They’ve won five (!) straight games…..Kansas is also on a major HEATER having won 4L5 games whilst taking down Colorado/BYU/Iowa St L3G….Fun Fact: Baylor has won 13 (!!) straight meetings with Kansas….Whilst you may think it doesn’t matter recall that’s what the DROOLING HORDES thought about Arkansas St last week before they destroyed ULM for the 98th ** consecutive time……Baylor is on the short list for SWEET ML Underdog ACTION posted on Friday afternoon.
** Fact check: Close to the truth.
No leanage
44. Iowa St -2.5 Kansas St (51.5)…………MEGALOCKS line – Iowa St -3
Vegas Implied Score – Iowa St 27 Kansas St 24.5
Lots of pressure on the Cyclones this Saturday but they looked DEAD in the WATER a few weeks ago…..Win, and they are a virtual certainty to get into the Big 12 Championship Game….Tough game to call as there are good matchups for each team…..Kansas St can run the ball (#3 Big 12) whilst Iowa St has trouble stopping the run (#11 Big 12)……The Cyclones like to move the ball thru the air (#5 Big 12) and Kansas St has allowed more than a few teams to do damage thru the air (#9 Big 12 pass efficiency D)….Iowa St has covered each of the last four FARMAGEDDON matchups.
No leanage
45. LSU -6 Oklahoma (47)…………MEGALOCKS line – LSU -5
Vegas Implied Score – LSU 26.5 Oklahoma 20.5
WHOA, NELLIE….The Sooners are coming off a 24-3 pasting of ROLL TIDE and they won the rushing battle 257-70 (!)….LSU has had trouble with mobile QBs to say the least and Oklahoma QB Jackson Arnold just gave the Tide 60 minutes of HELL (25-181)…Can Oklahoma be competitive in this game without the threat of a forward pass?…..Or do they have more tricks up their sleeve this week?….LSU won’t be able to run on the Sooners so it’s gonna come down to QB Garrett Nussmeier and his fine set of WR/TE weaponry vs an Oklahoma stop unit that’s only allowed two teams to put up more than 260 passing yards (Ole Miss, Auburn)….Would very much like to get +6.5/+7 to take the Sooners so will hang back and watch the market for a bit.
Holding pattern as per above.
Update – No leanage
46. Notre Dame -7.5 USC (51.5)…………MEGALOCKS line – Notre Dame -8.5
Vegas Implied Score – Notre Dame 29 USC 21.5
The Irish have played a BUTTERY SOFT schedule recently but the fact remains that they’ve taken down their L6 opponents by a combined margin of 270-65 (!)….QB Riley Leonard is healthy and playing efficient football and the rushing attack has been devastating (222 YPG, #11 FBS)….The good news for USC is that their run defense has been decent (130 YPG, #43) so we don’t think the Irish will be able to completely steamroll them on the ground…..Notre Dame’s defense is outstanding (#4 total defense, #48 run D, #1 pass efficiency D) but maybe RB Woody Marks (1,024, 9 TD) can do some damage and keep them out of long down and distance situations?…..That better be the case because USC QB Jayden Maiava will almost certainly make mistakes vs the ND secondary…..We greatly favor Notre Dame in the trenches but USC hasn’t lost a game by more than 7 points all year….Also note that Notre Dame hasn’t played a true road game since…..wait for it……SEPTEMBER 14th at Purdue…..We’re still contemplating this one and won’t consider ND unless we can lay -7 or better.
Holding pattern as noted above
UPDATE – no leanage
47. Louisiana -9.5 ULM (48.5)…………MEGALOCKS line – Louisiana -10
Vegas Implied Score – Louisiana 29 ULM 19.5
You know we’d love to see the ULM Warhawks (5-6) make their SECOND bowl appearance in school history but they’ve lost five in a row (three blowouts)…..That hasn’t stopped the MOBSTERS from betting them every week and losing their AZZ so maybe they know something we don’t? This week the edge for ULM might relate to the motivation for Louisiana….NOTE….If South Alabama beats Texas St on Friday, Louisiana has to win this game to win the Sun Belt West…..If Texas St beats South Alabama on Friday, then Louisiana is home and cooled…That would make ULM a live dog in our estimation…..We may not get a chance to post a ULM play but as always, use the ideas and concepts on all of our pages to make your own decisions.
No leanage, but as per above feel free to consider a ULM play if the circumstances line up. Note to SHERLOCK HOLMES GUY – A ULM play won’t go on our record unless we note it here in our usual manner.
48. UNC -3 NC State (55.5)…………MEGALOCKS line – UNC -3
Vegas Implied Score – UNC 29.25 NC State 26.25
We were initially fairly confident in the UNC side given that this will Mack Brown’s last game on the sidelines with the Tar Heels and he’s very well liked by the players…..That should mean a max effort….The problem is that UNC’s L2G have been two of their worst of the season from a statistical standpoint and they’re an impossible 0-6 (!) ATS at home this season….NC State is nothing special but they’ve taken down UNC three straight times and need to win this game if they wanna participate in bowl season…..Their run D also stepped up the L2G (119/31 rush yards allowed) and that’s good news when facing UNC’s superstar RB Omarion Hampton.
No leanage
49. Missouri -3 WOO PIG (54)…………MEGALOCKS line – Missouri -1.5
Vegas Implied Score – Missouri 28.5 WOO PIG 25.5
Missouri has looked better the L2G with Brady Cook under center losing at South Carolina (!) by four points and then blowing out Misssissippi St…..Now they return home for the rivalry tilt with Arkansas who gave Texas all they could handle a few weeks ago….Line value is with WOO PIG…..Missouri is 27-6 SU at home under HC Drinkwitz and the Tigers have covered 7L8 in the series.
No leanage
50. Northern Illinois -12.5 Central Michigan (43.5)…………MEGALOCKS line – Northern Illinois -14
Vegas Implied Score – Northern Illinois 28 Central Michigan 13.5
Central Michigan HC Jim McElwain is retiring after this game and whilst we’d love to back FIRE UP CHIPS in this spot the reality is that they’ve scored 16/10/13/7 L4G and they’re rolling with a 3rd/4th string QB in Jaydn Glasser who’s got a horrific 0-3 TD to INT mark in 51 attempts…..The Huskies are #2 in the MAC in run D and #2 in pass efficiency D…..FIRE UP CHIPS has trouble stopping the run (#9 MAC) and that’ll allow NIU to do their thing on the ground behind RBs Gavin Williams and Telly Johnson.
No leanage
51. Old Dominion -4 Arkansas St (58.5)…………MEGALOCKS line – Old Dominion -3
Vegas Implied Score – Old Dominion 31.25 Arkansas St 27.25
AWOOOOOOOOOO….Doubters of the mighty Red Wolves are currently living in a VAN DOWN BY THE RIVER ** as they’ve rattled off seven wins and have covered the spread in each of the L2G…..However, If they manage to take down Old Dominion it’ll be their best conference win of the season as they’ve previously taken down suspect competition in terms of ULM/Georgia St/Troy/Southern Miss….We’re also fans of the Monarchs and thought they’d get past Marshall last week but they couldn’t GIT R DONE and now they won’t be making a bowl game….How motivated will they be for this one?….The good news is that they’ll be able to run all day on the Red Wolves (#124 run D) but note that AWOOOOOOOOOO Arkansas St is undefeated at home (5-0)…..Old Dominion has allowed 28/35/42 L3G.
** We hope not, Karen. That’s just a Saturday Night Live joke from when it used to be funny. Hey, why aren’t you in line wearing three masks waiting to get your 14th death jab?
No leanage
52. James Madison -3.5 Marshall (52.5)…………MEGALOCKS line – James Madison -4
Vegas Implied Score – James Madison 28 Marshall 24.5
Marshall is on SUPAH HOT FIRE having won five in a row and the INTREPID Brad Powers reminds us that the Herd are 9-1-1 ATS this year with an average cover margin of 6 PPG…..They’re getting fine play from dual-threat QB Braylon Braxton (16-2 TD to INT, 529 rush) but their defense leaves a lot to be desired (389 YPG, #89) and they’ve allowed five teams to rush for over 200Y including Old Dominion last week (286)(!)…..James Madison can run the ball and they’ve also got a fine dual-threat QB in Alonza Barnett (24-3 TD to INT, 434 rush) and the Dukes are 5-0 SU at home with five blowout wins…..Let’s see if we can get a -3 to pop up before we hit our publishing deadline and go from there.
Holding pattern as per above.
Update – No leanage
53. Georgia Southern -2.5 Appalachian St (60.5)…………MEGALOCKS line – Georgia Southern -2.5
Vegas Implied Score – Georgia Southern 31.5 Appalachian St 29
This game appears to be a complete coin-toss…..Throw in home field advantage for the Eagles and the line is DEAD ON BALLS ACCURATE ** …..Appalachian St needs to win to get to a bowl game (5-5; one game canceled) whilst Georgia Southern needs a win (and a Marshall loss) to win the FUN BELT East.
** an industry term
No leanage
54. Texas St -1 South Alabama (61)…………MEGALOCKS line – South Alabama -2
Vegas Implied Score – Texas St 31 South Alabama 30
We’ll roll with South Alabama in this BAD BOY…..They’ve won 4L5G and can win the FUN BELT West if they take down Texas St and Louisiana loses to ULM….QB Gio Lopez is a star, they’ve got two excellent RBs and a 1,000-yard WR…..Their defense has allowed 22 points or fewer in 5L6G and the home team has won each of the last NINE meetings…..Texas St is already bowl eligible and have lost 3L5G with their only wins coming vs ULM and Southern Miss.
Lean – South Alabama +1
Posted 2:50pm Nov 28
+1 is listed virtually everywhere
55. New Mexico St -3 UTEP (51)………..MEGALOCKS line – New Mexico St -3.5
Vegas Implied Score – New Mexico St 27 UTEP 24
We won’t go into gory details but we circled this game a few weeks ago based on how well the Aggies were playing at home but we’ve lost value on the favorite now that New Mexico St stomped MTSU on the road and UTEP got splattered (understandably) on the road vs Tennessee (L 56-CACK).
No leanage
56. Western Kentucky -2 Jacksonville St (61)…………MEGALOCKS line – Pick ’em
Vegas Implied Score – Western Kentucky 31.5 Jacksonville St 29.5
Tough game to call given the circumstances….WKU has a shot to get into the CUSA Championship Game with a win in this game but they need Liberty to lose on Friday…..Jacksonville St has already locked up home field advantage in the title game…..NOTE – If you are so inclined, you can monitor the Liberty/Sam Houston game on Friday and play on WKU if they have serious motivation.
No leanage
57. SMU -13.5 California (55.5)…………MEGALOCKS line – SMU -11.5
Vegas Implied Score – SMU 34.5 California 21
This is a tough game to call as the Mustangs have already booked a spot in the ACC title game….but at the same time….they could use the style points from a yuuuuge win to remain in the good graces of the CFP elite…….The Golden Bears are bowl eligible and are coming off a yuuuge win over Stanford in the BIG GAME…That surely gave them a stay of execution from their COMMUNIST OVERLORDS but you never know….Cal is one of the best teams in the country ATS as a road dog but we’re not sure about their motivation in this spot….Let’s linger on the sidelines and see if we can bag a +14.
Holding pattern as per above.
Update – no leanage
58. ROLL TIDE -11.5 Auburn (52.5)…………MEGALOCKS line – ROLL TIDE -10.5
Vegas Implied Score – ROLL TIDE 32 Auburn 20.5
Readers of these fine pages rode Auburn to the window last week but after taking down Texas A&M in 4OT (!) you have to wonder how much gas they’ll have left in the tank…..even tho this is the IRON BOWL and Auburn (5-6) needs to emerge victorious if they want to participate in bowl season…..ROLL TIDE just got smoked at Oklahoma and whilst we think they might rebound in this game the reality is that they don’t have much on offense as we approach press time and the defense just lost star defender Deonte Lawson for the year due to injury….We’d love Auburn at +14 but thanks to the $$ from last week the value has dissipated.
No leanage
59. East Carolina -3 Navy (54)…………MEGALOCKS line – East Carolina -3
Vegas Implied Score – East Carolina 28.5 Navy 25.5
We prefer the ARRRRRRRRRRR Pirates in the game but we were hoping for a line closer to pick ’em and here we are…..East Carolina has won four straight and Navy hasn’t looked great to say the least in recent weeks but they’re off a bye and this isn’t Notre Dame or Tulane they’re facing, yo……Navy 9-2 SU/ATS L11 in the series.
FYI – 10:30am Friday – We just got word that Navy’s starting QB is out. Total is dropping. Line at a firm -3. A healthy Braxton Woodson is probably better than an injured Blake Horvath but we’ll see. Just something to keep in mind as you plan your last second wagers.
No leanage
60. USF -5.5 Rice (54.5)…………MEGALOCKS line – USF -4
Vegas Implied Score – USF 30 Rice 24.5
Rice put up a stinker last week vs UAB (L 40-14) but they were only outgained by 27 yards….Their previous two games were pretty good as they lost to Memphis on the road by 7 points and beat Navy by 14 the week prior….USF is playing well right now but their defense is still gross and Rice has played much better at home after the opening week debacle vs Sam Houston.
No leanage
61. North Texas -11 Temple (63.5)…………MEGALOCKS line – North Texas -12.5
Vegas Implied Score – North Texas 37.25 Temple 26.25
The Mean Green are watching their season go GLUG GLUG GLUG down the tubes as they’ve lost five consecutive games and they should appreciate playing HOOT HOOT who’ve really struggled this season (3-8)…..North Texas needs to win if they wanna play in a bowl game so they should be plenty motivated….The issue with backing the Mean Green is their disgusting defense (467 YPG, #128 FBS) and they are equally horrible defending the run and the pass….Temple is 10-2 ATS L12 at home.
No leanage
62. Troy -17.5 Southern Miss (48.5)…………MEGALOCKS line – Troy -19
Vegas Implied Score – Troy 33 Southern Miss 15.5
We’ve been hoping for the line to come back to -17 but it’s been a long and lonely wait….Troy is playing a much better brand of football down the stretch and should be able win this game comfortably…..The Golden Eagles played a decent game vs South Alabama before succumbing late….We’re not sure how much fight is left in a Southern Miss team that’s 1-10 but with a relatively low total it appears that it may be tough for the Trojans to get major separation……Tempted, but taking a pass on the fav for now.
No leanage
63. Tennessee -10.5 Vanderbilt (48.5)…………MEGALOCKS line – Tennessee -10
Vegas Implied Score – Tennessee 29.5 Vanderbilt 19
Can Vanderbilt and ace QB Diego Pavia pull off another upset??…..At a minimum you’ve gotta think they’ve got a great shot of at least getting the cover at they’re 7-1 ATS as an underdog and have only lost one game by more than 7 points (!) (South Cackalacky)…Tennessee’s offense has been very average in SEC play but the Commodores have started to struggle on offense as well….They’ve only put up 17/7/17 points L3G and now they face one of the best DLs in the country…..Tennessee won the last two meetings in Nashville 56-CACK and 45-21……Prefer the scrappy underdog but we’ll noodle this for a few more hours.
Holding pattern as per above
UPDATE – no leanage
64. Air Force -4 San Diego St (43.5)…………MEGALOCKS line – Air Force -5.5
Vegas Implied Score – Air Force 23.75 San Diego St 19.75
We’ll roll with the FLY BOYS one more time as they’ve been playing their best football of late after the insertion of Quentin Hayes at QB and they’ve rushed for 318/270/344 L3G whilst beating three teams better than San Diego St by a combined margin of 86-47…..San Diego St has lost five in a row and allowed 322/253/300/219 rush yards L4G…..Air Force has allowed a mere 96/69/-5 rush yards L3G.
Lean – Air Force -4
Posted 12:53pm Nov 29
-4 is listed virtually everywhere
65. Texas -5.5 Texas A&M (50)………..MEGALOCKS line – Texas -6
Vegas Implied Score – Texas 27.75 Texas A&M 22.25
WHOA, NELLIE!….It’s a play-in game for the SEC Championship….If Texas loses they’re almost surely still in the CFP, if the Aggies lose, their CFP dreams are done….Texas has played a soft SEC schedule but they’ve looked very good for the most part, especially on defense….The Longhorns rank #2 in the country in total defense (248 YPG) and they’ve been devastating vs the pass (#2 FBS pass efficiency D)….QB Quinn Ewers is a bit banged up (ankle) but Arch Manning is a nice insurance policy….And Texas has run the ball for 200+ yards in 2L3G…..We love what Texas A&M QB Marcel Reed is doing at QB but it’s gonna be a struggle vs the stout Texas defense who held WOO PIG to 10 points a few weeks ago….Texas A&M’s THROW GAME is starting to come alive and they play much better at home….We don’t see enough value to take the points but there’s enough variance in the potential outcomes (home field voodoo, Texas QB injury status, etc.) that we’ll almost certainly include Texas A&M in our ML Underdog picks.
No leanage
66. Clemson -2.5 South Carolina (49)…………MEGALOCKS line – Pick ’em
Vegas Implied Score – Clemson 25.75 South Carolina 23.25
We like South Carolina in this game as they’re playing like a top-10 team right now having won five in a row and looking good doing it…..Three of those victories came by 26 over Oklahoma, by 24 over Texas A&M, and by 21 over Vanderbilt…..Nobody else has beaten Vanderbilt by more than 7 points…..QB LaNorris Sellers is developing into one of most devastating dual-threat QBs in the country, RB Raheim Sanders is one of the best in the SEC, and the THROW GAME weaponry is starting to look good (Cocks 307/353/238/244 passing yards L4G)…..South Carolina has one of the best DLs in the nation and have booked 39 sacks (#3 FBS)….Clemson’s OL is banged up and they’ve allowed 12 sacks in the L4G after yielding just 6 in the F7G…..QB Cade Klubnik has had a fine season (29-4 TD to INT) but he’ll need some help from star RB Phil “I’m a Bad” Mafah….The problem is that South Carolina has the #12 run D in the nation….A final note of concern is Clemson run D that allowed 288 rush yards to Citadel, 210 to LUA-VUH (7.8 YPC), 236 to Stanford, and 6.3 YPC to Georgia……Clemson has played the #62 schedule whilst SC has dealt with the #18 docket.
Official play – South Carolina +2.5 -105
Sent 3:50pm Nov 29
Consensus is +2.5 -105. You can find +3 -120 to +3 -125 at several shops, as well as -3 -110 at a few places in Vegas. We’ll post -2.5 -105 for tracking purposes.
‘Official play’ means that this is one of our favorite plays of the week (perceived value, match-up, coaching, trends, etc.). We’re currently investing 25% more on these plays vs our ‘leans’. We’ll normally have two or three of these choices per week.
‘Lean’ means that we’re placing a standard size wager on the game. We’ll normally have about ten of these plays per week. Many members prefer to pick and choose amongst these games when finalizing their weekly investment cards so we’ll continue to refer to them as ‘leans’.
‘No leanage’ means that we won’t have any action on the game.
Team totals – We’ll list the implied number based on the point spread and total when our analysis is posted. If a team total ends up being an ‘official play’ we’ll post a widely available number at the time of pick release.