Week 15 – CHAMPIONSHIP WEEK Quick Takes – College Football Predictions
Here are some QUICK TAKES on the games that did not make the cut for a longer write-up this week.
Let’s gooooo!
NOTE – As was the case last week, if we engage in “hedging” activities we’ll alert you here and post the details in the Futures blog post. Stay tuned.
FUTURES CLUB UPDATE WED 12:00pm. HEDGE ADDED – ACC Championship Game.
FUTURES CLUB UPDATE FRI 9:30am. Will post the final hedging activities before noon today. For those interested, here’s a link to the post.
Handy index: Quick Takes
‘Official’ picks in blue. ‘Leans’ in green. Waiting on a number or information to make a potential play in orange.
- Big 12 Championship Game – Iowa St vs Arizona St
- Sun Belt Championship Game – Marshall at Louisiana
- MAC Championship Game – Ohio vs Miami Ohio
- CUSA Championship Game – WKU at Jacksonville St
- ACC Championship Game – Clemson vs SMU
- Mountain West Championship Game – UNLV at Boise St
QUICK TAKES
1. Arizona St -2 Iowa St (51)…………MEGALOCKS line – Pick ’em
Vegas Implied Score – Arizona St 26.5 Iowa St 24.5
Yes, guy.
When all looked lost, Iowa St kept digging and somehow found their way into the dance. It helped that Colorado blew their chance by getting smoked by Kansas, and it was also fortuitous for the Cyclones that BYU choked BIGLY and dropped back-to-back games to Kansas and Arizona St. Iowa St’s rushing attack has been up and down this season and we project TOUGH SLEDDING vs the Arizona St run defense (#27 FBS). However, we do believe that Iowa St will have success thru the air as they’ve got a PAIR (!!) of 1,000-yard WRs in Jayden Higgins and Jaylin Noel and Arizona St’s secondary has had trouble at times vs the better passing teams on their schedule. The Sun Devils have a 14-14 TD to INT ratio on defense so Iowa St QB Rocco Becht will have to be careful with the football. The good news for Becht is that the Sun Devils have a mediocre pass rush (21 sacks, #84).
Arizona St has been one of the best stories in college football this year and we’re thrilled to see quality football back in Tempe. The Sun Devils boast one of the best RBs in the nation in Cam Skattebo (1,398, 5.7, 17 TD rushing; 35-468, 2 TD receiving) and he’ll be able to do some work vs a suspect Iowa St run defense that’s allowed four teams to rush for over 200 yards. We’ve been very impressed by QB Sam Leavitt who’s getting better as the season moves along (13-1 TD to INT L5G) but the THROW GAME could be in trouble in this game as star WR Jordyn Tyson is out with a collarbone injury. Without Tyson, we’ve got yuuuge concerns about their ability to move the ball thru the air and note that Iowa St is stellar in terms of defending the pass (#5 FBS pass efficiency D; 52%, 12-14 TD to INT). The Cyclones have no pass rush whatsoever (15 sacks, last Big 12) so at least Leavitt will have time to survey the field.
We prefer Iowa St in this event as they’ve got the ability to make more plays in the THROW GAME due in large part to the injury to Jordyn Tyson. On defense, they’ll be able to use more resources to focus on slowing down the great Cam Skattebo. The Cyclones have won 10 games for the first time (!) but they’ve got the longest conference title drought in the FBS. Their only two conference championships came back in 1911/1912 (!) when they were co-champs of the Missouri Valley Intercollegiate Athletic Association **. That should have them plenty hungry for this one. Arizona St will also be JACKED UP but is it too much to ask for the Sun Devils to go from PURE FILTH (3-9 in PAC 12 LY) to the top of the Big 12 mountain in one season?
** Trivia bomb, yo.
We prefer Iowa St in this game but need to noodle on our decision a bit longer as FUTURES CLUB has a live TICKEE TICKEE with Iowa St to win the conference.
Holding pattern as per above.
UPDATE
No leanage
SEE top of page for link to futures “hedging” activities.
2. Louisiana -5.5 Marshall (56.5)…………MEGALOCKS line – Louisiana -4.5
Vegas Implied Score – Louisiana 31 Marshall 25.5
The Cajuns (10-2) took down the FUN BELT West and have won 8L9 games heading into this one…..”Backup” QB Chandler Fields has done well since replacing injured starter Ben Wooldridge and note that Fields has a career 24-8 TD to INT mark and he’s been with the Cajuns since BEFORE the PLANDEMIC…..Yup, he was with the team back in 2019 **…..Louisiana has a deep set of WR/TEs and a solid 1-2 punch at RB with the return of Zylan Perry (19-150 last week)…..Marshall is soft vs the run (244/286 rush yards allowed L2G) but they’ve been decent vs the pass (#46 pass efficiency D)….Also note that the Herd boast a freak DE in Michael Green who’s already tallied an impossible 16 (!) sacks (#2 FBS)….Thankfully for Louisiana their pass protection has been excellent (15 sacks allowed, #23).
** Trivia taster, yo.
Marshall is on SUPAH HOT FIRE (9-3) and have won six straight games and recall that the last two games came vs ODU and James Madison (!) on the road…..Braylon Braxton has become one of the most dynamic QBs in the Group of Five since taking over the starting gig (17-2 TD to INT; 544 rush, 4 TD) but the THROW GAME weaponry is very underwhelming….Nobody on the team has recorded a 100-yard (!) receiving game yet this season…..The Herd are #19 in rushing offense but they definitely miss having RB AJ Turner at full speed….He averaged over 100 YPG for the first 7 games and due to injury has only picked up 147 yards over the L5G….The backup RBs did a good job last week vs JMU from a YPC point of view so we’ll see what happens……The Cajuns’ run D is soft (#74 FBS) and they’re much better vs the pass….That should allow Marshall to have success on the ground.
Louisiana HC Mike Desormeaux will be coaching in his first title game and he’s 1-2 in bowl games….This will be Marshall HC Charles Huff’s first championship tilt and he’s 1-2 in bowl games….Also note that Huff is rumored to be leaving the program after this game as he hasn’t been given a contract extension and he’s a “player’s coach”…..Potential motivational NUGGET for the Herd and they joined the FUN BELT in 2022….This would be a big win for the Marshall program.
Tough call at this price point…..May come back to this one later in the week.
No leanage
3. Miami Ohio -2.5 Ohio (44.5)…………MEGALOCKS line – Miami Ohio -2.5
Vegas Implied Score – Miami Ohio 23.5 Ohio 21
Miami Ohio (8-4) is moving like a TREMENDOUS MACHINE as we approach press time…..They’ve won seven games in a row and have dominated the competition since their struggles vs tough non-conference opposition earlier in the season…..QB Brett Gabbert has been playing well but he still makes a few too many mistakes (21-10 TD to INT)…..The good news is that he’s got the best set of WRs in the MAC (Virgil/Tracy/McDonald) and it’s complemented by 1,000-yard RB Keyon Mozee who’s rushed for 100+ yards in 7L9G….Ohio’s defense is excellent (#13 FBS total D, #7 run D, #49 pass efficiency D) so we expect Mozee to have trouble getting things rolling, but on the other hand, we believe that Gabbert will hit a small handful of big plays in the THROW GAME that’ll tilt the balance in their favor……Ohio has won five in a row and they boast the most DEVASTATING rushing attack in the MAC (210 YPG, #1 MAC; 5.2 YPC, #1) but they couldn’t do much on the ground in their earlier meeting with Miami (L 30-20) as the Redhawks are also tough vs the run (#37 FBS)….The Bobcats will have to try and get the 1-2 rushing combo of QB Parker Navarro and RB Anthony Tyus III rolling if they want to have any shot in this one…..They’ve only got one true threat at WR in Coleman Owen (1,022, 7 TD) but he was held to just two catches for 12 yards in their previous meeting…..Navarro has a mediocre 10-10 TD to INT mark so Ohio will have to stay out of obvious passing situations as much as possible……Ohio has a stud pass rusher in Bradley Weaver (8 sacks)….Miami Ohio has tallied four sacks in each of the L4G and DE Brian Egwu leads the Redhawks with 7.5 of those BAD BOYS.
Ohio hasn’t won a MAC Championship since 1968 and it would be a great story for the program to get that monkey off their back……Miami Ohio has won two MAC titles in the L5Y under HC Chuck Martin….Last year he did it with a backup QB….and back in 2019 he did it with…..wait for it……QB BRETT GABBERT who was a true freshman…..Yup, he was with Miami back in 2019, well before the days of the SCAMDEMIC and the SAFE and EFFECTIVE brainwashing.
We prefer Miami in this game but need to noodle on our decision a bit longer as FUTURES CLUB has a live TICKEE TICKEE with Miami Ohio to win the conference.
Holding pattern as per above.
UPDATE
No leanage
SEE top of page for link to futures “hedging” activities.
4. Jacksonville St -3.5 WKU (58)…………MEGALOCKS line – Jacksonville St -3
Vegas Implied Score – Jacksonville St 30.75 WKU 27.25
“It’s deja vu all over again”
<Yogi Berra>
We’ve got a rematch of last week’s 19-17 WKU home win over Jacksonville St ** and this just might be the most difficult game to grasp from a handicapping perspective on the entire card…..The COCKS started the season with Logan Smothers at QB but quickly turned to the dangerous and crafty Tyler Huff who proceeded to rattle off 1,176 rushing yards and a decent 11-6 TD to INT mark….The problem is that he’s a “game-time decision” to play this week although it seems very likely that he’ll give it a shot….Will he be 100%?….75%?…Smothers is not who you wanna see under center if you’re holding a Jacksonville St ticket so it might be best to wait an hour or so before kickoff to verify that Huff is starting…..Jacksonville St has the #3 rushing attack in the nation (257 YPG) but they haven’t been as devastating on the ground the L4G (233 YPG) and the THROW GAME has been awful (99/54 passing yards L2G)…..WKU threw for over 300Y last week and there’s no reason to expect that they won’t have a lot of success in this one….This looks like another one-score game with WKU doing the passing and the COCKS doing their work on the ground….Tough call at this price point.
** see our AWARD-WINNING Week 14 Boxscore and Wagering Review post for more details
No leanage
5. SMU -2.5 Clemson (56.5)…………MEGALOCKS line – SMU -1
Vegas Implied Score – SMU 29.5 Clemson 27.0
Yes, guy.
The SMU Mustangs have SHOCKED the WORLD ** and made the ACC Championship Game in their first season in the conference….They’re undefeated in conference play (11-1 overall) with their only loss coming by three points to a really good BYU squad….They’ve been deadly on offense since Kevin Jennings took over at QB (19-7 TD to INT, 9.3 YPA; 344 rush, 4 TD) and he distributes the ball like an all-star point guard (8 players with 250 receiving yards)…..They’ve also got a 1,000-yard RB in Brashard Smith (6.4, 14 TD)….and an OL that’s allowed a mere 13 sacks (#16 FBS)…..The Mustangs also have one of the most underrated defenses in the country (#28 total defense, #4 run D, #31 pass efficiency D) that loves to achieve PENETRATION (37 sacks, #4 ACC)…..Clemson has quietly put together a nine-win season and whilst they’ve been a wee bit of a disappointment compared to their standards they still find themselves in a position to win their 9th (!!) ACC title under HC Dabo Swinney….That’s what we call sustained EXCELLENCE….QB Cade Klubnik has an excellent 29-5 TD to INT mark and he’s proven to be a very dangerous runner….RB Phil Mafah has rushed for over 1000 yards but it remains to be seen how successful he can be vs the excellent SMU run defense….The game will be won or lost in our estimation by the battle between the improving Clemson WR corps and the Mustangs secondary that’s been torched on occasion (TCU/LUA-VUH/Pitt)…..One worry for Clemson backers is the fact that they lost to each of the three best teams they played (Georgia/SC/LUA-VUH)…..We prefer SMU in the game but we’ll likely sit this one out and see how things turn out for FUTURES CLUB (see top of this page for link to Futures post)…..Game looks like a toss-up and it’s lined as such.
** but not FUTURES CLUB, bay-bee.
No leanage
6. Boise St -4 UNLV (57.5)…………MEGALOCKS line – Boise St -4
Vegas Implied Score – Boise St 30.75 UNLV 26.75
We’ve got some SWEET ACTION going down in Boise on Friday night as UNLV and Boise St go head-to-head in a rematch of last season’s Mountain West title game. This time the event will be played in Idaho and it’ll be crisp and chilly to say the least.
Boise St (11-1) has dominated the opposition with their only blemish coming at Oregon (!) early in the campaign (L 37-34)….One concerning item about the Broncos is that their play has slipped a bit down the stretch….They beat Nevada by 7, were outgained by San Jose St in a miracle point spread cover, beat Wyoming (!) by 4, and took down Oregon St by 16…..They’ve got one of the best players in college football in superstar RB Ashton Jeanty (2,288, 28 TD) and an efficient THROW GAME behind QB Maddux Madsen (21-3 TD to INT)…..Madsen has a few legit targets including WR Cameron Camper (811, 4 TD) but he’s certainly not a gunslinger that can consistently light up the secondary…..UNLV did an excellent job vs Jeanty in their earlier matchup (33-128, 3.9 YPC) and the Rebels have one of the best run defenses in the nation (#10 FBS)…… They’ve also booked six sacks on three occasions in the L6G but Boise St does a fine job protecting the passer (11 sacks allowed, #7 FBS).
UNLV’s offense has been excellent (#4 rush, #17 pass efficiency) since dual-threat specimen Hajj-Malik Williams took over at QB as he’s a devastating rushing threat (768, 9 TD) and a dood that takes care of the football (17-4 TD to INT)….RBs Jai’Den Thomas and Kylin James give the Rebels a true three-headed monster that’s very difficult to stop and note that UNLV outrushed Boise St in their first matchup 188 (5.2) to 185 (4.6)….UNLV has a star WR in Ricky White (1,020, 11 TD) who’ll be playing on Sundays in the near future but other than that, and maybe WR Jacob De Jesus, the THROW GAME options are limited…..Boise’s pass rush has been excellent this year (45 sacks, #2 FBS) and they sacked UNLV 6 (!) times in their first meeting….Some potential good news in this regard for the Rebels is that Boise St’s pass rush hasn’t been as lethal down the stretch. Boise is stronger vs the run on defense so there will be chances for HMW to hit some shots down the field…… Will he be able to connect?
The stakes are YUUUUGE in this game as the winner gets to participate in the College Football Playoff……UNLV has the #1 special teams group according to the legendary Phil Steele whilst Boise St comes in at #90…..The Rebels have been particularly crafty at blocking kicks so we’ll see if they can come up with another one on the big stage…..As noted above, the weather will be cool and crisp which should theoretically favor the Broncos but that’s what was said back in 2022 when the “warm weather guys” from Fresno came to Boise and won the Mountain West Championship on this very field as 3-point dogs.
UNLV outperformed Boise St 6.33 YPP to 5.40 in their first meeting….UNLV is +1.50 in YPP vs Mountain West competition whilst Boise St is +0.81. We’ll likely have a UNLV-related play at some point. Let’s see if the line creeps back to +5.
Holding pattern as per above.
UPDATE
Lean – UNLV +4.5
Posted 8:50am Dec 6
+4.5 is listed virtually everywhere. There are a few rogue +5s out there.
‘Official play’ means that this is one of our favorite plays of the week (perceived value, match-up, coaching, trends, etc.). We’re currently investing 25% more on these plays vs our ‘leans’. We’ll normally have two or three of these choices per week.
‘Lean’ means that we’re placing a standard size wager on the game. We’ll normally have about ten of these plays per week. Many members prefer to pick and choose amongst these games when finalizing their weekly investment cards so we’ll continue to refer to them as ‘leans’.
‘No leanage’ means that we won’t have any action on the game.
Team totals – We’ll list the implied number based on the point spread and total when our analysis is posted. If a team total ends up being an ‘official play’ we’ll post a widely available number at the time of pick release.