posted December 14
Gasparilla Bowl – Memphis vs NC State
The Game
ARRRRRRRR, matey! The mythical pirate GASPARILLA, who is said to have terrorized the Gulf of Mexico many moons ago, was thoughtful enough to sponsor a fine Group of Five vs. Power Four matchup down in Tampa.
Memphis (8–4) looked like they might be a contender for the CFP, or at least a major player in the competitive American Conference, until they fell apart in the second half of the season. Their collapse started with a loss to the CORPSE of UAB, and it was completed with a three‑game losing streak to end the regular season. HC Ryan Silverfield has fled the scene and is now the new leader of the mighty Arkansas Razorbacks program.
NC State (7–5) ended up having an underwhelming regular season after starting out 3–0. They hit a midseason funk and fell to 4–4, but they won three of their final four contests to finish with seven wins. They took down Georgia Tech in the final month of the season, and the only team that beat them in November were YOUR Miami Hurricanes.
The Details
NC State -6 Memphis (58)
MEGALOCKS LINE – NC State -6.5
“Vegas” Implied Projected Score: NC State 32 Memphis 26
NC State offense vs Memphis defense
It’s a shame that QB CJ Bailey didn’t get more help from the rest of the roster because he performed at a very high level during the regular season (2,884 yards, 23–9 TD/INT; 5 rushing TDs). NC State hasn’t been overwhelming offensively (397 YPG, #8 ACC; 30 PPG, #8), but they were only shut down by two very good stop units (Notre Dame, Miami). The Pack have plenty of balance with a dangerous #1 RB in Hollywood Smothers (939 yards, 6 TD) and a fine selection of WR/TE weaponry, including WR Terrell Anderson (637 yards, 5 TD) and star TE Justin Joly (468 yards, 7 TD). Memphis plays pretty good defense (361 YPG allowed, #3 American), but they’re generally better vs the run (#44 FBS) than vs the THROW GAME (#84 pass defense). That means things should set up pretty well for Bailey and company.
Memphis offense vs NC State defense
Memphis has decent on offense this season, but certainly not overwhelming (#36 FBS rushing offense, #61 passing offense). We’ve been impressed by QB Brendon Lewis, who battled injury for most of the year but still put up strong numbers (70%, 15–6 TD/INT; 618 rushing yards, 9 TD). The extra time off should help his “lower body injury” heal, which is good news for Memphis. A deep RB group is led by Sutton Smith (669 yards, 7 TD), and they’ve got a dangerous 1–2 combo at WR in Cortez Braham (889 yards, 8 TD) and Jamari Hawkins (591 yards, 17.4 YPC, TD).
The Pack have been a major disappointment on this side of the football (421 YPG allowed, #117 FBS), and that gives us hope that Memphis can do some damage on offense. The good news for NC State is that they’ve been pretty decent vs the run (138 YPG allowed, #49), and their defense has been much better in their last two outings vs Florida State and North Carolina (30 total points allowed).
Trends, Intangibles, and More!
As noted earlier, Memphis will be without long‑time HC Ryan Silverfield in this event, and interim HC Reggie Howard will be the pilot until Charles Huff (!) takes over. Huff spent one season at Southern Miss before jumping ship.
Memphis has won four bowl games in a row, and the last team to defeat them was PENN ST (!) in the 2019 Cotton Bowl, a year before the PLANDEMIC. On the flipside, NC State has been a full‑blown TRAIN WRECK in bowl season under HC Dave Doeren (3–6), and they’ve dropped FIVE in a row.
NC State is –0.07 in net YPP margin vs a tough schedule (#27). They’ve beaten four bowl teams, and all of those wins were solid (East Carolina, Wake Forest, Virginia, Georgia Tech).
Memphis is +0.74 in net YPP margin but they’ve faced a much easier docket (#94). The Tigers have taken down three fellow bowlers (USF, Troy, Rice).
The long‑range weather forecast for Tampa looks really good as we approach press time, but it’s always wise to double‑check before you get down on the game.
Summary
This is one of the toughest bowl games to call. NC State has played the tougher schedule and has a more impressive harvest of wins, but we need to be aware of potential opt‑outs for this game. It’s very possible that a few key Wolfpack players quit to “prepare for the NFL Draft,” and it’s more likely that Memphis will have a more complete bundle of starters. It’s also tough to know where Memphis’ heads are at after losing their final three games and having a new HC roll into town. Nothing on this game for now — we’ll see what things look like when the dust settles.
Conclusion
No leanage for now
‘Official play’ means that this is one of our favorite plays of the week (perceived value, match-up, coaching, trends, etc.). We’re currently investing 25% more on these plays vs our ‘leans’. We’ll normally have two or three of these choices per week.
‘Lean’ means that we’re placing a standard size wager on the game. We’ll normally have about ten of these plays per week. Many members prefer to pick and choose amongst these games when finalizing their weekly investment cards so we’ll continue to refer to them as ‘leans’.
‘No leanage’ means that we won’t have any action on the game.
Team totals – We’ll list the implied number based on the point spread and total when our analysis is posted. If a team total ends up being an ‘official play’ we’ll post a widely available number at the time of pick release.