posted December 14
Gasparilla Bowl – Kennesaw St vs Western Michigan
The Game
We travel down to paradise and the GREAT STATE OF SOUTH CAROLINA for another edition of the Myrtle Beach Bowl!
Western Michigan (9–4) started the season 0–3 thanks to a tough non‑conference slate, but since that point they’ve been a full‑blown HOUSAFIRE, winning nine of their last ten games, including a MAC Championship victory over Miami Ohio.
Kennesaw State (10–3) has also been one of the best stories of 2025. The Owls came out of nowhere to win ten games and a CUSA Championship in just their 2nd (!) full season of FBS football.
Let’s go!
The Details
Western Michigan -3.5 Kennesaw St (49.5)
MEGALOCKS LINE – Western Michigan -3
“Vegas” Implied Projected Score: Western Michigan 26.5 Kennesaw St 23
Western Michigan offense vs Kennesaw St defense
The Broncos offense can be described as an unrelenting battering ram. They keep hammering you for four quarters until you finally submit. Western Michigan averages 197 YPG on the ground (#22 FBS, #2 MAC), and they’ve averaged an impossibly impossible 283 (!!) rushing yards over their last four games. It all starts with the 1–2 combo of QB Broc Lowry (940 yards, 14 TD) and RB Jalen Buckley (829 yards, 8 TD), and their quality production on early downs is the key to keeping the chains moving. They don’t do much at all through the air (140 YPG, #129 FBS), so it’ll be up to the Owls to keep the ground attack from getting rolling.
Kennesaw State hasn’t been very good vs the run over the course of the season (175 YPG allowed, #102), but it’s important to note that they beat an excellent rushing team in Jax State in the CUSA title game. It doesn’t sound awesome, but they held the Jags to 210 yards on 40 carries and didn’t let the mediocre passing attack hurt them. They’ll try to use the same strategy in this game. <grabs popcorn>
Kennesaw St offense vs Western Michigan defense
The Owls don’t have an offense that’ll scare you to death (#5 CUSA rushing, #6 passing), but they do an excellent job of grabbing yards in consistent chunks (#1 CUSA in 10‑yard plays, #2 in 20‑yard plays). Starting QB Amari Odom is an excellent dual‑threat specimen (18–6 TD/INT, 7 rushing TD), and he made a phenomenal play in the final moments of the CUSA title game to win it for the Owls. Kennesaw State has plenty of tasty weaponry at RB/WR, and the two guys most likely to make an impact are RB Coleman Bennett (716 yards, 4 TD) and WR Gabriel Benyard (898 yards, 9 TD).
Western Michigan will present a stern challenge for the Owls, as they allow a mere 300 YPG (#15 FBS) and they’re sound vs the run (#33). The news gets worse for Kennesaw State when you find out the Broncos are #28 in the nation in pass‑efficiency defense and #6 (!) in sacks with 38.
Trends, Intangibles, and More!
The holiday season brings us many miracles, including the fact that it appears both teams still have their head coach.
Western Michigan is +0.11 in net YPP margin vs the #106 schedule. The Broncos have beaten four bowl teams (Miami Ohio, Ohio, Central Michigan, Toledo).
Kennesaw State is +0.14 in net YPP margin vs the #124 schedule. The Owls have posted wins over five bowl teams (Jax State, Missouri State, FIU, Louisiana Tech, Arkansas State).
These two teams have been PRINTING MONEY for DEGENERATES across the globe. Both squads are 10–3 ATS, and wait whilst we do the math… a combined 20–6 ATS (77%).
The long‑range forecast for Myrtle Beach looks good as we approach press time (low 60s, sunny), but it never hurts to keep track of things on the way to kickoff.
Summary
We prefer the Broncos in this game, as it never hurts to have the much better rushing attack and defense. Both teams are in potential letdown spots after winning their conference title games, so that adds an element of uncertainty. Let’s see if a –3 pops up and go from there, yo.
Conclusion
Holding pattern as per above.
‘Official play’ means that this is one of our favorite plays of the week (perceived value, match-up, coaching, trends, etc.). We’re currently investing 25% more on these plays vs our ‘leans’. We’ll normally have two or three of these choices per week.
‘Lean’ means that we’re placing a standard size wager on the game. We’ll normally have about ten of these plays per week. Many members prefer to pick and choose amongst these games when finalizing their weekly investment cards so we’ll continue to refer to them as ‘leans’.
‘No leanage’ means that we won’t have any action on the game.
Team totals – We’ll list the implied number based on the point spread and total when our analysis is posted. If a team total ends up being an ‘official play’ we’ll post a widely available number at the time of pick release.