posted December 16
Idaho Potato Bowl – Utah St vs Washington St
The Game
It’s POTATO time, bay-bee.
Utah St (6–6) were an inconsistent bunch during the regular season. They showed some promise at times and looked lost on occasion as well. They never lost (or won) more than two games in a row, and they gave mighty Boise St all they could handle in the regular‑season finale (L 25–24). Washington St (6–6) also had an uneven season, but the one thing we’ll remember about this year’s squad is how they played on the road vs tough competition. They lost to Ole Miss (!), Virginia, and James Freaking Madison (!) by a combined NINE points.
The Details
Utah St -2.5 Washington St (52.5)
MEGALOCKS LINE – Utah St -1
“Vegas” Implied Projected Score: Utah St 27.5 Washington St 25
Utah St offense vs Washington St defense
It’s the LAST RIDE for QB Bryson Barnes, who’s one of the more underrated dual‑threat specimens in the Group of Five (18–4 TD/INT; team’s #1 rusher with 733 yards and 9 TD). Barnes has only thrown four INTs all year (335 attempts), and he’s got sneaky‑good wheels. The Aggies have a solid 1–2 RB combo (Davis/Jacobs), but the WR group took a nasty blow with the departure of Braden Pegan (transfer portal, not expected to play), who was by far their #1 option (926 yards, 5 TD). Only one other WR on the roster has more than 20 catches, but at least he’s a good one in Brady Boyd (644 yards, 7 TD).
Washington St has been very stingy on defense and has proven stout vs the run (#39) and effective vs the pass (#56 pass efficiency D). The COOGS have only picked off 5 (!) passes all season (#116), so the reliable Barnes doesn’t have to worry about ball hawks. One area of concern is the Utah St offensive line, which has allowed a whopping 39 sacks (#128), and whilst Washington St doesn’t have a menacing pass rush, they did manage to book six sacks in the regular‑season finale vs Oregon St.
Washington St offense vs Utah St defense
The Cougars have been abysmal on offense as they come into this BAD BOY ranked #121 in total offense (315 YPG), and they don’t do much on the ground (#114) or through the air (#100). They’ll try to grind it out and control the clock (#19 time of possession) with the rushing of QB Zevi Eckhaus (337 yards, 8 TD) and RB Kirby Vorhees (576 yards, 5 TD). Utah St has had a difficult time stopping the run (175 YPG allowed, #100), and that could be a major problem for them in this contest.
The Aggies have been better vs the pass, but they’ve still been cooked at times with the THROW GAME, allowing five opponents to exceed the 300‑yard plateau. Washington St doesn’t have an imposing air attack, but they’ve got a legit 1–2 WR duo in Joshua Meredith (639 yards, 3 TD) and Tony Freeman (557 yards, 3 TD). Freeman is currently in the transfer portal, but local reports indicate he will play in this game as we approach press time.
Utah St has an average pass rush (27 sacks), and the COOGS haven’t allowed a sack in any of their last three games.
Trends, Intangibles, and More!
Washington St HC Jimmy Rogers did a good job in his first year with the Cougars, but he’s already moved on to Iowa St. DC Jesse Bobbitt will handle the head‑coaching duties in this game.
Utah St lost 49–28 at Washington St last year, but the Cougars had some QB named John Mateer at the controls.
Washington St has dropped four (!) bowl games in a row, with their last win coming before the PLANDEMIC in the 2018 Alamo Bowl vs Iowa St. Utah St has lost their last two bowl games, including their most recent appearance in this very event vs Georgia St (L 45–22) in 2023.
Utah St is +0.55 in net YPP margin vs the #79 schedule. They’ve only beaten ONE (!) bowl team (Fresno St).
Washington St is –0.04 in net YPP margin vs the #68 schedule. The COOGS have taken down three bowl teams (Toledo, San Diego St, Louisiana Tech).
Utah St is an eye‑popping 10–2 (!) ATS, and Washington St has also done a good job vs Vegas (8–4 ATS).
Both of these squads will be competing in the PAC-12 (!) next season.
The long‑range weather forecast looks wet — rain, with temps in the low 50s. Our gut feel is that those elements will have a neutral impact on both the side and total, but keep an eye on things if you have a different opinion.
Summary
Washington St has a much more impressive list of wins, and they came really close to knocking off high‑quality opposition. But how do they fare with an interim HC vs a team that’ll be highly motivated to bag their first winning season since 2021? We’re on the sidelines for the time being.
Conclusion
No leanage for now.
‘Official play’ means that this is one of our favorite plays of the week (perceived value, match-up, coaching, trends, etc.). We’re currently investing 25% more on these plays vs our ‘leans’. We’ll normally have two or three of these choices per week.
‘Lean’ means that we’re placing a standard size wager on the game. We’ll normally have about ten of these plays per week. Many members prefer to pick and choose amongst these games when finalizing their weekly investment cards so we’ll continue to refer to them as ‘leans’.
‘No leanage’ means that we won’t have any action on the game.
Team totals – We’ll list the implied number based on the point spread and total when our analysis is posted. If a team total ends up being an ‘official play’ we’ll post a widely available number at the time of pick release.