posted December 19
updated December 21
Frisco Bowl – California vs Hawaii
The Game
It’s one of the signposts of the holiday season, yo. The Hawaii Bowl.
Hawaii (8–4) has been a fun team to follow this year with their explosive passing attack and underrated stop unit. They’ve already won eight games and clinched their first winning season since the truncated 2020 PLANDEMIC campaign when they finished 5–4.
California (7–5) has had an up‑and‑down season, but not too many people thought they’d get to seven wins in the regular slate. They made their year in the finale when they SHOCKED THE WORLD and knocked SMU out of the ACC Championship Game with a wild 38–35 win.
The Details
California pk Hawaii (53)
MEGALOCKS LINE – Hawaii -1.5
“Vegas” Implied Projected Score: California 26.5 Hawaii 26.5
California offense vs Hawaii defense
The Golden Bears have done their best work on offense thru the air behind talented true freshman QB Javon‑Keawe Sagapolutele, who’s thrown for over 3,000 yards and 17 TDs (9 INT) in his debut season in Berkeley. JKS has a strong 1–2 duo at WR in Jacob De Jesus (892 yards, 5 TD) and Trond Grizzell (690 yards, TD), but the depth behind those two guys is a bit sparse. RB Kendrick Raphael must be respected as well (853 yards, 12 TD), and he’s coming off a 100‑yard game in the upset win over SMU.
Hawaii has continued to improve on defense (351 YPG, #52 FBS; 23.5 PPG, #59), and they’ll provide a good test for the Cal offense. We’re very interested to see how the Golden Bears’ offensive line holds up against the Hawaii pass rush, as the Rainbow Warriors are #3 in the Mountain West in sacks (29), while Cal sits near the bottom of the ACC in sacks allowed (31). Cal is dead last (!) in the FBS in rushing offense so their fate will be decided on how JKS deals with the Hawaii secondary.
Hawaii offense vs California defense
Hawaii also has an excellent young QB in Micah Alejado, who will almost certainly eclipse the 3,000‑yard mark in this event (2,832 yards, 21–9 TD/INT). The ground game is an afterthought (#127 FBS), so the Rainbow Warriors will lean on their deep stable of THROW GAME weaponry to PENETRATE the Cal defense. Seven players have more than 200 receiving yards, but Cal will have to pay the most attention to WR Jackson Harris (963 yards, 12 TD) and WR Pofele Ashlock (704 yards, 6 TD). (UPDATE – WR Jackson Harris has hit the transfer portal and will not play)
This is a good matchup on paper for the Golden Bears, as they are weak vs the run (#87) but stout as usual vs the pass (#32 pass efficiency). In fact, Cal has only allowed 10 TD passes all season. Hawaii is near the bottom of the Mountain West in sacks allowed (31), but the Golden Bears don’t generate much heat on the passer (20 sacks).
Trends, Intangibles, and More!
Cal’s interim HC Nick Rolovich is a former Hawaii QB and head coach. The ROLOVICH BOWL, bay‑bee.
Hawaii is ‑0.03 in net YPP margin vs. the No. 112 (!) schedule. They’ve only beaten two bowl teams (Utah State, San Diego State).
California is ‑0.47 in net YPP margin vs. the No. 60 docket. The Golden Bears have taken down three bowl teams (Minnesota, SMU, Louisville).
Hawaii is a spicy 8‑4 ATS, whilst Cal registers at 5‑7 vs. Vegas.
The last time Hawaii played in a bowl game was back in the 2020 SCAMDEMIC season, when they took down Houston in the New Mexico Bowl.
The Golden Bears’ last bowl win came in the 2019 Redbox Bowl, when they beat Illinois.
The good folks at College Football News remind us that in 21 editions of the Hawaii Bowl, only twice has the total failed to reach 45 points. The total for this game is over a touchdown higher, but it’s still food for thought if you’re playing the total.
Summary
This has the look of a great game, but a tossup from a wagering standpoint.
Conclusion
No leanage for now.
UPDATE – No play on this game.
‘Official play’ means that this is one of our favorite plays of the week (perceived value, match-up, coaching, trends, etc.). We’re currently investing 25% more on these plays vs our ‘leans’. We’ll normally have two or three of these choices per week.
‘Lean’ means that we’re placing a standard size wager on the game. We’ll normally have about ten of these plays per week. Many members prefer to pick and choose amongst these games when finalizing their weekly investment cards so we’ll continue to refer to them as ‘leans’.
‘No leanage’ means that we won’t have any action on the game.
Team totals – We’ll list the implied number based on the point spread and total when our analysis is posted. If a team total ends up being an ‘official play’ we’ll post a widely available number at the time of pick release.