posted December 21
GameAbove Sports Bowl – Central Michigan vs Northwestern
The Game
Welcome back to DETROIT MOTOR CITY, one of the premier bowl destinations for families looking to spend a few days checking out what Detroit has to offer. You can’t go wrong with the “Stay Alive for 45 Minutes Challenge,” where people compete to see who can leave the hotel and make it back safely within the allotted time limit. Survival is the only requirement for victory, even if you return with a non-fatal stab wound, or a bullet fragment lodged in your leg. Suck it up, Buttercup. The “What Is That?” Architectural City Tour is also an enjoyable way to spend a few hours with loved ones and marvel at what decades of government corruption can do to a once‑proud city.
Northwestern (6–6) got off to a strong 5–2 start but struggled once the tougher games appeared on the docket. They enter this event having dropped four of their last five, but they’d love to finish with a winning record and start building toward 2026.
Central Michigan (7–5) had a successful regular season under first‑year HC Matt Drinkall, and they’ve already secured their first winning campaign since 2021. FIRE UP CHIPS were in the MAC hunt until the very end and have every reason to feel confident heading into battle.
The Details
Northwestern -10.5 Central Michigan (43.5)
MEGALOCKS LINE – Northwestern -12.5
“Vegas” Implied Projected Score: Northwestern 27 Central Michigan 16.5
Northwestern offense vs Central Michigan defense
The Wildcats haven’t done a great job with the THROW GAME (#14 FBS), but it’s been much better than the disaster we witnessed in 2024. QB Preston Stone has the SKILLZ, but he makes a few too many mistakes (14–12 TD‑to‑INT). The WR/TE group isn’t much to write home about, but WR Griffin Wilde is one of the most underrated specimens in the Big Ten (783 yards, 6 TD).
The rushing attack is strong (167 YPG, #7 Big Ten), and it appears the Cats will have their top two options available, including #1 RB Caleb Komolafe (886 yards, 10 TD) as we approach press time. The Chips are an average MAC team when it comes to stopping the run (151 YPG), so it’s fair to say Northwestern should be able to do what they do best on offense.
Central Michigan offense vs Northwestern defense
Central Michigan isn’t gonna scare you with their passing offense (116 YPG, #119), but it’s important to note they’re pretty efficient (#16!) when they decide to heave it up and complement the rushing attack, which is their bread and butter (170 YPG, #4 MAC). FIRE UP CHIPS boast a three‑headed monster at RB (Biggins, Cornist, Townsend), and QB/RB Angel Flores is back for this game as well (5.0 YPC, 8 TD).
This won’t be an easy matchup for Central Michigan, as Northwestern has held up well vs. the run (140 YPG allowed, #40) playing a tough schedule. The Cats could be missing a few regulars up front in this game, so maybe the Chippewas can stick to it and find a way to convert on third downs to keep the chains moving.
Trends, Intangibles, and More!
13 (!) of the last 16 editions of this event have been decided by one score.
Northwestern didn’t make the postseason last year, but they’ve won five bowl games in a row.
FIRE UP CHIPS are just 4–9 in bowl action, but they did win their last one when they upset Washington State in the 2021 Sun Bowl.
Northwestern is –0.36 in net YPP margin vs. the No. 36 schedule. They beat one bowl team (Minnesota) and another that was bowl‑eligible (Penn State).
Central Michigan is –0.02 in net YPP margin vs. the No. 128 (!) schedule. We may need to get one of our HOTTIE INTERNS to fact‑check this, but the Chippewas appear to be the only bowl team that hasn’t posted a win over another bowl squad.
Central Michigan leads the MAC in turnover margin (+8). Northwestern clocks in at –4.
The Chippewas lost their two games vs. Power Four teams by a combined score of 108–20 (Pitt, Michigan).
Summary
This game almost always treats us to a close one. Central Michigan has the kind of team that can muck this BAD BOY up for a while, but it’s hard to ignore the fact that they’ve played the much easier schedule and haven’t posted a win over a bowl team. Prefer the dog that should be well‑motivated, but nothing for now.
Conclusion
No leanage for now.
‘Official play’ means that this is one of our favorite plays of the week (perceived value, match-up, coaching, trends, etc.). We’re currently investing 25% more on these plays vs our ‘leans’. We’ll normally have two or three of these choices per week.
‘Lean’ means that we’re placing a standard size wager on the game. We’ll normally have about ten of these plays per week. Many members prefer to pick and choose amongst these games when finalizing their weekly investment cards so we’ll continue to refer to them as ‘leans’.
‘No leanage’ means that we won’t have any action on the game.
Team totals – We’ll list the implied number based on the point spread and total when our analysis is posted. If a team total ends up being an ‘official play’ we’ll post a widely available number at the time of pick release.