posted December 23
Arizona Bowl – Fresno St vs Miami Ohio
The Game
We’re off to the desert for this BAD BOY as the Fresno State Bulldogs tussle with the Miami Ohio RedHawks in the Arizona Bowl.
Fresno State (8–4) hasn’t looked pretty this season, but they get full marks for finding a way to cobble together eight wins. The Bulldogs were well positioned at the midpoint of the campaign, sitting at 5–1, but they dropped out of the Mountain West race after losing conference games in back‑to‑back weeks.
Miami Ohio (7–6) lost their first three games of the season but got things rolling in MACtion and actually put together a five‑game winning streak. They lost a pair of conference games and appeared to be DEAD IN THE WATER, but somehow they found their way into the MAC Championship Game thanks to a corrupt tiebreaking system. Just kidding. Not really. Justice was served in the title game as the RedHawks were taken down by Western Michigan.
The Details
Fresno St -6 Miami Ohio (42)
MEGALOCKS LINE – Fresno St -7
“Vegas” Implied Projected Score: Fresno St 24 Miami Ohio 18
Fresno St offense vs Miami Ohio defense
The Bulldogs have one of the weakest THROW GAMES in the FBS (#114), and they’ll be focusing on the ground attack in this game. They’ve got a deep collection of RBs to rely upon (170 YPG, #54), and the 1–2 combo of Rayshon Luke and Bryson Donelson has combined for over 1,200 yards and 11 TDs. Also note that six (!) Fresno State players rushed for 20+ yards in the regular‑season finale.
QB E.J. Warner is back under center, and we hope he keeps the passing to a minimum, as he’s one of the most inconsistent QBs of our generation (12–11 TD‑to‑INT). Miami has been very good on defense (#31 total defense, #39 run D, #30 pass efficiency D), but not the usual BRICK WALL of seasons past. The RedHawks will be missing several key pieces on this side of the football, and that’s not great news heading into the Arizona Bowl.
Miami Ohio offense vs Fresno St defense
The RedHawks have struggled to develop an identity on offense, particularly since former starting QB Dequan Finn left the team in November. We’re fairly certain that freshman QB Thomas Gotkowski will get the start, and he looked decent (4–0 TD‑to‑INT) before getting YANKED in the MAC title game for Henry Hesson. They’ve gotta find a way to get #1 RB Jordan Brunson (724 yards, 4 TD) rolling, because they’ll be missing their best offensive weapon by far in star WR Kam Perry (966 yards, 6 TD), who averaged an impossibly impossible 23 yards per catch during the regular season.
Fresno State has been good vs. the run (133 YPG, #42 FBS) and REALLY good vs. the pass (#9 pass efficiency defense), and they’re #4 in the nation with 19 INTs. It seems like the RedHawks are gonna have trouble moving the football.
Trends, Intangibles, and More!
Fresno State is making a bowl appearance for the 5th consecutive season, and they’re 3–1 over their last four postseason events. First‑year HC Matt Entz has done a fine job in year one, and the boys should be JACKED UP. It’s a much shorter trip to this game for the Bulldogs, so that can’t hurt.
Miami Ohio HC Chuck Martin is 2–4 in bowl games but a sparkling 6–0 (!) ATS.
Fresno State is +0.57 in net YPP margin vs. the #116 schedule. The Bulldogs have taken down three bowl squads (Georgia Southern, Hawaii, Boise State).
Miami Ohio is +0.60 in net YPP margin vs. the #96 docket. They’ve only beaten one bowl team this year (Western Michigan).
The RedHawks are 8–5 ATS, while the Bulldogs are an even 6–6 vs. the number.
Summary
It’s tough to lay points with a grinding offense like what Fresno State brings to the table, but the opt‑outs on Miami’s side are REAL and SPECTACULAR. It’s tough to fade Chuck Martin in bowl games, but Fresno State is our preference in this matchup. We’ll do a wee bit more digging and report back.
Conclusion
Holding pattern as per above.
‘Official play’ means that this is one of our favorite plays of the week (perceived value, match-up, coaching, trends, etc.). We’re currently investing 25% more on these plays vs our ‘leans’. We’ll normally have two or three of these choices per week.
‘Lean’ means that we’re placing a standard size wager on the game. We’ll normally have about ten of these plays per week. Many members prefer to pick and choose amongst these games when finalizing their weekly investment cards so we’ll continue to refer to them as ‘leans’.
‘No leanage’ means that we won’t have any action on the game.
Team totals – We’ll list the implied number based on the point spread and total when our analysis is posted. If a team total ends up being an ‘official play’ we’ll post a widely available number at the time of pick release.