posted December 23
Go Bowling Military Bowl – East Carolina vs Pittsburgh
The Game
BIG ERN says, “Don’t sleep on the Go Bowling Military Bowl.” And don’t forget, he was the 1979 Odor‑Eaters Tournament champion, so he knows sports.
Pitt (8–4) started out a bit slow at 2–2 but then got on a major HEATER, ripping off five straight wins. They got smoked in the regular‑season finale by YOUR Miami Hurricanes, but they provided an entertaining brand of football for fans all year.
The ARRRR East Carolina Pirates (8–4) were another fun team to follow this season, and they were in the hunt for a berth in the American Conference Championship Game before they got smoked by UTSA in the penultimate week of the regular season.
The Details
Pittsburgh -10 East Carolina (57)
MEGALOCKS LINE – Pittsburgh -9.5
“Vegas” Implied Projected Score: Pittsburgh 33.5 East Carolina 23.5
Pittsburgh offense vs East Carolina defense
The Panthers’ offense looked a lot better once QB Mason Heintschel (64%, 15–7 TD‑to‑INT) took over the controls, but they still had trouble running the football (#115 FBS). Pitt does most of their damage through the air (275 YPG, #20), and it appears they’ll have the majority of their WR/TE weaponry available, including the potent WR duo of Kenny Johnson and Raphael Williams Jr.
East Carolina has done a fine job vs. the run (#29), so we don’t forecast the Panthers having much success on the ground in this event. The ARRR Pirates can be torched at times through the air, so it’ll be up to Heintschel to deliver at least a B+ performance if Pitt is going to win this game by a comfortable margin.
One thing worth noting is that the Panthers’ offensive line gives up an UNSEEMLY amount of sacks (40, #130), so the Pirates might be able to create some negative plays — and don’t forget they rank #3 in the American Conference in sacks (30).
East Carolina offense vs Pittsburgh defense
East Carolina moved like a TREMENDOUS MACHINE during the regular season (34 PPG, #22; 465 YPG, #14), and they love to work with tempo. The ARRRR Pirates got some bad news when star QB Kaitin Houser (3,300 yards, 19–6 TD‑to‑INT) decided to quit and skip the bowl game, and the backup QB situation looks pretty dire. Of course, you never know until the game gets going, but it doesn’t help that they’ll be without ace OC John David Baker.
The Pirates should still have their solid 1–2 RB combo (Montgomery, Gunn Jr.) that’s combined for 13 rushing scores, but they’ll be missing a few key THROW GAME pieces in WR Yannick Smith and TE Jayvontay Conner. It’s tough to get much going on the ground vs. the Panthers (#9 FBS run D, 97 YPG), but Pitt can definitely be had through the air (#104 passing defense). Sadly for the Pirates, this isn’t a great matchup given that Houser has fled the scene.
Trends, Intangibles, and More!
East Carolina has won their last two bowl games, but they played in this event last year (beat NC State), so motivation could be an issue.
Pitt HC Pat Narduzzi is just 2–5 (!) in bowl games, and recall that the Panthers lost a SIX (!) overtime classic vs. Toledo in 2024.
East Carolina is +0.75 in net YPP margin vs. the #91 schedule. They’ve beaten two bowl teams along the way (Army, Memphis).
Pitt is +0.86 in net YPP margin vs. the #46 (!) list of assignments. The Panthers have defeated three fellow bowl squads (NC State, Central Michigan, Georgia Tech).
Both teams have done well vs. the spread. Pitt is 8–4 ATS, whilst the Pirates are 7–5.
The long‑range forecast looks dry with manageable temps. There’s rain in the area before gameday, but whatever happens on Saturday shouldn’t be too bad.
Summary
This had the potential to be one of the best bowl games of the year until the ARRRR Pirates were hit with the quitting bug. It’s impossible to know what they’ve got at QB, but their defense should be able to keep them in the game for a while. Pitt isn’t the most reliable team as a favorite, and their HC doesn’t seem to care very much about bowl games. Tough game to call. We’re on the sidelines for now.
And for the final time this season, the East Carolina summary in PIRATE SPEAK…………
This here clash had the makings of one o’ the finest bowl battles o’ the year… until the ARRRR Pirates caught the quittin’ bug and jumped ship. ’Tis impossible to know what treasure they’ve got at quarterback, but their defense should keep ’em afloat fer a spell. Pitt ain’t the most trustworthy crew when they’re layin’ points, and their cap’n don’t seem to give a barnacle about bowl games. A tricky voyage to chart, this one. We be stayin’ in the crow’s nest fer now.
Conclusion
No leanage for now.
‘Official play’ means that this is one of our favorite plays of the week (perceived value, match-up, coaching, trends, etc.). We’re currently investing 25% more on these plays vs our ‘leans’. We’ll normally have two or three of these choices per week.
‘Lean’ means that we’re placing a standard size wager on the game. We’ll normally have about ten of these plays per week. Many members prefer to pick and choose amongst these games when finalizing their weekly investment cards so we’ll continue to refer to them as ‘leans’.
‘No leanage’ means that we won’t have any action on the game.
Team totals – We’ll list the implied number based on the point spread and total when our analysis is posted. If a team total ends up being an ‘official play’ we’ll post a widely available number at the time of pick release.