posted December 22
Rate Bowl – New Mexico vs Minnesota
The Game
We’re Arizona‑bound for this BAD BOY as the Minnesota Golden Gophers and New Mexico Lobos do battle down at Chase Field.
Minnesota (7–5) had one of the quietest seven‑win regular seasons in modern history as they slithered through their schedule picking up wins mostly against the SLUDGE of the FBS. However, you’ve gotta hand it to the Gophers — they’re a very consistent outfit under the guiding hand of HC P.J. Fleck. They roll into town off a win over their hated rivals from Wisconsin.
New Mexico (9–3) has been one of the most pleasant surprises of the 2025 season under HC Jason Eck, and folks with brains will tell you they got robbed by somehow losing a four‑team tiebreaker in the Mountain West and missing out on a shot to play for a conference title. The Lobos are a HOUSAFIRE as we approach press time, winners of six (!) games in a row.
The Details
Minnesota -2.5 New Mexico (44.5)
MEGALOCKS LINE – Minnesota -3
“Vegas” Implied Projected Score: Minnesota 23.5 New Mexico 21
Minnesota offense vs New Mexico defense
This offense has a face that only a MOTHER could love. The Gophers rank #128 (!) in total offense, #129 on the ground (!), and #104 in passing. QB Drake Lindsey hasn’t been bad (63%, 16–6 TD‑to‑INT), but the WR/TE weaponry is limited, and the news gets worse when you consider they’ll be without #1 WR Le’Meke Brockington, who’s quitting to “prepare for the NFL Draft.” The run blocking has been awful, and we’re not sure if either RB Darius Taylor (554 yards, 3 TD) or RB Fame Ijeboi (441 yards, 2 TD) will be available in this contest.
New Mexico has been surprisingly effective vs. the run (113 YPG allowed, #25), so it appears the success of the Gophers’ offense will rely heavily on Lindsey and the THROW GAME (Lobos #98 pass‑efficiency D, 69%).
New Mexico offense vs Minnesota defense
The Lobos come at you with an underrated rushing attack hat features a three‑headed monster at RB (Bankston, McKinney, Humphrey; combined 17 TD) and a pair of mobile QBs in Jack Layne and Jacob Laubstein (7.0 YPC). New Mexico doesn’t throw the ball much, but when they do, they prefer to be efficient (#40 FBS pass efficiency). The Lobos lack depth at WR/TE, but they’ve got a pair of legit targets in WR Keagan Johnson (730 yards, 3 TD) and TE Dorian Thomas (545 yards, 4 TD).
Minnesota has been disappointing vs. the pass (#107 pass‑efficiency D), but they’ve been stout against the run (122 YPG allowed, #31). That’ll make it challenging for the Lobos to move the offense at peak efficiency, but they’ve got multiple ways to run the ball. If the Lobos do decide to pass, they need to be aware of Minnesota’s underrated pass rush (35 sacks, #2 Big Ten), and note that New Mexico has allowed 30 sacks (#106).
Trends, Intangibles, and More!
New Mexico last appeared in a bowl game back in 2016, and their last bowl victory came in the 2007 New Mexico Bowl when they took down Nevada by a score of 23‑CACK.
The Lobos are shooting for their first TEN‑WIN SEASON since 1982 (!!), when they went 10–1 in the WAC.
Minnesota HC P.J. Fleck is an impossibly impossible 6–0 in bowl games with Minnesota.
The Gophers are –0.67 (!) in net YPP margin vs. the No. 56 schedule. They’ve only beaten one bowl team (Nebraska).
New Mexico is +0.57 in net YPP margin vs. the No. 93 docket. The Lobos have taken down three bowl squads (San Diego State, Utah State, UNLV).
Minnesota is 4–8 ATS, while the Lobos clock in at 7–4–1 vs. the number.
Summary
We prefer the Lobos in this matchup as they’ve got a YUUUGE theoretical motivational edge whilst riding a six‑game winning streak. Minnesota was 7–0 at home this season and 0–5 ON THE HIGHWAY. It’s tough to go against P.J. Fleck in a bowl game, but we’ll do the unthinkable.
Conclusion
Lean – New Mexico +2.5
Consensus is +2.5
Posted 11:08am Dec 22
‘Official play’ means that this is one of our favorite plays of the week (perceived value, match-up, coaching, trends, etc.). We’re currently investing 25% more on these plays vs our ‘leans’. We’ll normally have two or three of these choices per week.
‘Lean’ means that we’re placing a standard size wager on the game. We’ll normally have about ten of these plays per week. Many members prefer to pick and choose amongst these games when finalizing their weekly investment cards so we’ll continue to refer to them as ‘leans’.
‘No leanage’ means that we won’t have any action on the game.
Team totals – We’ll list the implied number based on the point spread and total when our analysis is posted. If a team total ends up being an ‘official play’ we’ll post a widely available number at the time of pick release.