posted December 26
Texas Bowl – LSU vs Houston
The Game
This is one of the more interesting matchups of the bowl season as the mighty LSU Tigers tangle with the Houston Cougars in the Texas Bowl on Saturday night.
Houston (9–3) started the season by winning seven of their first eight games, and they were right in the thick of the Big 12 chase until they were upset at home by West By God Virginia. This has already been a very successful season for the Cougars — don’t forget they were 4–8 last year in the first season under ace HC Willie Fritz.
LSU (7–5) has been one of several YUUUGE disappointments this season, joining the likes of Clemson and Penn State. They fired HC Brian Kelly and have dropped four of their last six games, but at least they’ve got your boy Lane Kiffin ready to take the reins for the 2026 season… unless, of course, he takes the Michigan job in the next few days. Just kidding. Not really.
The Details
Houston -1 LSU (42.5)
MEGALOCKS LINE – Pick ’em
“Vegas” Implied Projected Score: Houston 21.75 LSU 20.75
Houston offense vs LSU defense
The Cougars are fairly pedestrian on offense (#48 rush, #84 pass), and their bread‑and‑butter is getting the ground game lathered up with RB Dean Connors (851 yards, 5 TD) and QB Connor Weigman (644 yards, 11 TD). Weigman has really come on as a rushing threat late in the season, posting 121/114/82 yards on the ground over the last three contests. Two THROW GAME targets do most of the damage: WR Amare Thomas (906 yards, 15.4 YPC, 10 TD) and stud TE Tanner Koziol (65–651–5), and both are expected to play as we rapidly approach press time.
LSU has been solid on defense (#27 run D, #13 pass efficiency D), but they’ll be without SEVEN starters on that side of the ball in this event — including five of their top seven tacklers. The Tigers still have plenty of talent in the stop unit, but there’s no doubt they’ll be lacking in experience.
LSU offense vs Houston defense
The Tigers have been tough to watch on offense this year, particularly the pathetic ground game that’s averaging a measly 106 YPG (#122). The 1–2 RB tandem of Caden Durham and Harlem Berry are both scheduled to play, but they’ve combined for only five rushing TDs in 2025. Backup QB Michael Van Buren has looked pretty average since taking over the starting gig (62%, 5–2 TD‑to‑INT), but at least he’ll have the majority of his WR/TE weaponry available, including their top two in Barion Brown and Xavion Thomas.
Houston has featured an above‑average stop unit this season (#43 run D, #41 pass efficiency D), and they’ve been nasty on 3rd downs (#26) and stingy in the red zone (#21).
Trends, Intangibles, and More!
Houston has a decided head‑coaching edge with Willie Fritz at the controls, as opposed to LSU, who’s working with an interim boss and navigating a transition to Lane Kiffin and friends.
LSU is playing in their 3rd (!!) Texas Bowl in the last five years. They took down Baylor last year, but Kansas State got the better of them in 2021.
Houston sports an 8–4 mark vs. the spread, while LSU is the mirror image at 4–8.
LSU is +0.17 in net YPP margin vs. the #10 (!) schedule, and they’ve beaten three bowl teams (Clemson, WKU, Louisiana Tech).
Houston is +0.37 in net YPP margin vs. the #69 list of assignments, and the Cougars have taken down three bowl squads of their own (Arizona, Arizona State, Rice).
Summary
LSU will be working with a depleted roster on the defensive side of the football, but they’ve still got legit talent. We’ll side with Houston in this game, as we’ve gotta believe they’ll care more about the event — especially since LSU seems to play in this bowl every year and they’ve got the Lane Kiffin Experience starting very soon. It also doesn’t hurt to have the better QB and the better head coach, and let’s not forget the game is being played in Houston (NFL stadium).
Conclusion
Lean – Houston ML -116
Consensus is -116. -115 is fairly easy to find if you have multiple outs. Houston -1 at -110 or better is an alternative option.
Posted 12:12pm Dec 26.
‘Official play’ means that this is one of our favorite plays of the week (perceived value, match-up, coaching, trends, etc.). We’re currently investing 25% more on these plays vs our ‘leans’. We’ll normally have two or three of these choices per week.
‘Lean’ means that we’re placing a standard size wager on the game. We’ll normally have about ten of these plays per week. Many members prefer to pick and choose amongst these games when finalizing their weekly investment cards so we’ll continue to refer to them as ‘leans’.
‘No leanage’ means that we won’t have any action on the game.
Team totals – We’ll list the implied number based on the point spread and total when our analysis is posted. If a team total ends up being an ‘official play’ we’ll post a widely available number at the time of pick release.