posted December 26
Birmingham Bowl – Appalachian St vs Georgia Southern
The Game
We travel down to the MAGIC CITY, otherwise known as Birmingham, Alabama, to get ready for a battle between two programs — and two fanbases — that absolutely hate each other. There’s a reason they call this rivalry DEEPER THAN HATE.
Georgia Southern (6–6) struggled mightily for most of the regular season, but they kept swinging and managed to qualify for a bowl by winning three of their final four games.
Appalachian State (5–7) had four wins at the midpoint of the season but TANKED down the stretch, scraping together just one more victory after a promising start. The Mountaineers found their way into a bowl thanks to a handful of bowl‑eligible teams quitting on the season and refusing to participate.
There are plenty of Appalachian St players in the transfer portal as we approach press time, and a few Georgia Southern stars that may skip the game, and that makes this game a very tricky one to handicap.
The Details
Georgia Southern -7 Appalachian St (59.5)
MEGALOCKS LINE – Georgia Southern -5.5
“Vegas” Implied Projected Score: Georgia Southern 33.25 Appalachian St 26.25
Georgia Southern offense vs Appalachian St defense
The Eagles have been more balanced than normal under HC Clay Helton (#79 rush, #39 pass), and they can thank star RB OJ Arnold (880 yards, 6.6 YPC, 5 TD) for a big chunk of that. Arnold wasn’t healthy over the final two weeks of the season, and it’ll be YUUUGE if he can go in this one.
Georgia Southern still does most of its damage through the air behind veteran QB JC French (2,758 yards, 19–8 TD‑to‑INT), and it appears both WR Camden Brown (1,049 yards, 14 TD) and WR Marcus Sanders Jr. (725 yards, 4 TD) will be available for this tilt.
Appalachian State’s defense has been a mess all season, but they’ve at least been respectable against the run (#51). The problem is the pass defense, which sits at a ghastly #129, and that’s not ideal when you’re trying to slow down the Eagles’ THROW GAME. Seven (!) opponents have thrown for 300+ yards on the Mountaineers, which tells you everything you need to know about this matchup.
Appalachian St offense vs Georgia Southern defense
Appalachian State is doing their best to cobble together a roster for this game, but it appears QB JJ Kohl will be available (12–2 TD‑to‑INT), as will the 1–2 RB tandem of Rashod Dubinion (868 yards, 4 TD) and Jaquari Lewis. You never know what might happen between now and kickoff, but that’s at least some good news for the Mountaineers.
More good news: Georgia Southern has an absolutely disgusting run defense (221 YPG allowed, #133), so it’s not unreasonable to think App State can find some traction on the ground and put points on the board. The WR/TE group is decent, but it looks like they’ll be without three of their top four options, which puts even more pressure on the run game to carry the load. On the other hand, the Eagles can’t really defend the pass either, so it all depends on who suits up for the Mountaineers in terms of how much success they’ll have on offense.
Trends, Intangibles, and More!
This game is a rematch of the Nov. 6th showdown in which Georgia Southern oozed past Appalachian State on the road (W 25–23).
The first iteration of DEEPER THAN HATE dates all the way back to 1932 (!). These two programs combined for nine (!) FCS National Championships before making the jump to the Sun Belt.
Georgia Southern HC Clay Helton is 0–3 in bowl games with the Eagles, so that’s… not ideal.
Appalachian State checks in at –0.34 in net YPP margin against the #119 (!) schedule, and they have NOT beaten a bowl team this season.
Georgia Southern sits at –0.75 in net YPP margin vs the #95 docket, but the Eagles have at least taken down three bowl teams (App State, Coastal Carolina, Jacksonville State).
Against the number, the Eagles are 7–5 ATS, while the Mountaineers are 5–7 vs. Vegas.
Summary
Our gut tells us that Georgia Southern will seize the opportunity to beat Appalachian State like they owe them money, but who really knows what these starting lineups will look like once we actually get to gameday. Nothing for now — we’ll let the news cycle breathe a bit.
Conclusion
No leanage for now.
‘Official play’ means that this is one of our favorite plays of the week (perceived value, match-up, coaching, trends, etc.). We’re currently investing 25% more on these plays vs our ‘leans’. We’ll normally have two or three of these choices per week.
‘Lean’ means that we’re placing a standard size wager on the game. We’ll normally have about ten of these plays per week. Many members prefer to pick and choose amongst these games when finalizing their weekly investment cards so we’ll continue to refer to them as ‘leans’.
‘No leanage’ means that we won’t have any action on the game.
Team totals – We’ll list the implied number based on the point spread and total when our analysis is posted. If a team total ends up being an ‘official play’ we’ll post a widely available number at the time of pick release.