posted December 27
Independence Bowl – Coastal Carolina vs Louisiana Tech
The Game
We head down to Shreveport in the GREAT STATE of LOUISIANA for another edition of the Independence Bowl.
Louisiana Tech (7–5) looked like their season might be going GLUG GLUG GLUG down the tubes as they dropped four of five in the middle of the campaign, but they steadied the ship and closed strong with two straight wins — including a road victory over a very scrappy Missouri State squad.
Coastal Carolina (6–6) caught absolute fire around the midpoint of the season and ripped off a four‑game winning streak. But the wheels came off shortly thereafter, and they dropped their final three games to finish the regular season at an even .500.
Louisiana Tech -9 Coastal Carolina (51.5)
MEGALOCKS LINE – Louisiana Tech -10
“Vegas” Implied Projected Score: Louisiana Tech 30.25 Coastal Carolina 21.25
Louisiana Tech offense vs Coastal Carolina defense
The Bulldogs are unable to MATRICULATE the ball via the THROW GAME (#115 passing offense) with backup QB Trey Kukuk at the controls, but they’ve taken a very serious approach to running the football (197 YPG, #22). In fact, in the last two games they’ve rushed for 388 (!) yards (51 carries) and 319 yards (54 carries). Kukuk is a very dangerous runner (488, 6.2, 5 TD) and they’ve got a deep set of RBs that keeps things fresh. Coastal is brutal when it comes to stopping the run (210 YPG!, #132) so this is a very bad matchup for their stop unit.
Coastal Carolina offense vs Louisiana Tech defense
The Chants have been pathetic on this side of the football for the majority of the campaign (#116 total offense, #122 passing), but they did have a GREAT four‑game stretch in the middle of the season when QB Samari Collier was at the controls. They hung 45/44/40/40 during that epic heater. Collier injured his knee and the offense went right back into the tank, but there are rumblings he might start in this game. We don’t think he’ll go, but if he does he’ll juice the rushing attack — just don’t expect much through the air.
Louisiana Tech is average when it comes to stopping the run, but they are excellent in terms of defending the pass (#19 pass‑efficiency D, 17–20 TD‑to‑INT) and they’re #3 in the nation in interceptions. Tad Hudson has started the last few games and is likely to get the call again here. Hudson doesn’t offer much mobility, and we don’t see him PENETRATING the Bulldogs’ secondary too often (4–5 TD‑to‑INT).
Trends, Intangibles, and More!
Louisiana Tech is +0.10 in net YPP margin vs the #130 (!) schedule, and the Bulldogs have taken down two bowl teams (Southern Miss, Missouri State).
Coastal Carolina sits at –1.40 (!) in net YPP margin against the #83 docket. The Chanticleers have beaten just one bowl squad (Appalachian State), and the Mountaineers had a losing regular‑season record (5–7).
The location of this bowl game is a theoretical positive for Louisiana Tech.
Coastal will be working with an interim HC in Jeremiah Johnson — who was, wait for it, the DC at Louisiana Tech in 2024.
Louisiana Tech is 8–4 ATS, while Coastal Carolina is 5–7 vs Vegas.
Summary
It’s gonna be hard for Coastal Carolina to move the ball vs the Bulldogs, and Louisiana Tech should be able to control the clock with their ground game.
Conclusion
Lean – Coastal Carolina Team Total under 21.25 (implied)
You can find anything from 20.5 to 21.5 with extra juice attached. Either of those options is fine. The alternate play would be the game ‘under’.
Posted 11:37am Dec 27.
‘Official play’ means that this is one of our favorite plays of the week (perceived value, match-up, coaching, trends, etc.). We’re currently investing 25% more on these plays vs our ‘leans’. We’ll normally have two or three of these choices per week.
‘Lean’ means that we’re placing a standard size wager on the game. We’ll normally have about ten of these plays per week. Many members prefer to pick and choose amongst these games when finalizing their weekly investment cards so we’ll continue to refer to them as ‘leans’.
‘No leanage’ means that we won’t have any action on the game.
Team totals – We’ll list the implied number based on the point spread and total when our analysis is posted. If a team total ends up being an ‘official play’ we’ll post a widely available number at the time of pick release.