posted December 27
Alamo Bowl – TCU vs USC
The Game
It’s time for a Big 12 vs Big Ten showdown down at the Alamo Bowl as the TCU Horned Frogs tangle with the USC Trojans.
USC (9–3) were a fun watch all season and stayed in the CFP hunt until the penultimate week, when they finally fell on the road to mighty Oregon. They’ll be missing a lot of DOODS in this game, but the Trojans should still be plenty motivated to chase win number ten.
TCU (8–4) never really managed to get serious traction in the Big 12, dropping a pair of conference games early, but they closed strong with back‑to‑back wins over bowl teams in Houston and Cincinnati.
The Details
USC -6.5 TCU (55.5)
MEGALOCKS LINE – USC -5
“Vegas” Implied Projected Score: USC 31 TCU 24.5
USC offense vs TCU defense
The Trojans were a very potent offense during the regular season, ranking #10 in total offense (472 YPG) and #13 in scoring offense (37 PPG). Star QB Jayden Maiava (3,431 yards, 23–8 TD‑to‑INT) will suit up for this one, but his fine set of THROW GAME weaponry has been completely decimated by the quitting bug. Devastating WR Makai Lemon (1,156 yards, 11 TD), WR Ja’Kobi Lane, and stud TE Lake McRee are all set to miss the contest, and it’s anyone’s guess who steps up in their absence.
#1 RB King Miller will give it a go (873 yards, 7 TD, 6.7 YPC), so at least that’s a major plus for the offense. TCU has been decent vs the run (#46) but not so much vs the pass (#86 pass‑efficiency D), though their stop unit gets to breathe a massive sigh of relief with so many Trojan stars missing in action.
TCU offense vs USC defense
TCU also has some bad news to report, as starting QB Josh Hoover has bailed on the season and won’t be going in this game (3,472 yards, 29–13 TD‑to‑INT). That means journeyman QB Ken Seals gets the start. We honestly thought he was selling real estate or something, but it is what it is.
TCU doesn’t do much on the ground (133 YPG, #93), but they did run it pretty well in their final two regular‑season games. Star WR Eric McAlister (1,121 yards, 10 TD) hasn’t quit just yet, though it would be a bit of a surprise if he actually suited up. #2 WR Jordan Dwyer (730 yards, 7 TD) is out due to injury. All in all, not great news for the Frogs.
Thankfully, they’ll be facing a suspect USC stop unit (#63 run D, #80 pass‑efficiency D) that seemed to get worse as the season wore on. USC will also be without a small handful of their best defensive players, so there’s at least some hope for the Horned Frogs to move the ball.
Trends, Intangibles, and More!
TCU HC Sonny Dykes is 3–4 in bowl games (2–1 with the Horned Frogs). USC HC Lincoln Riley has identical numbers: 3–4 in bowls, 2–1 with the Trojans.
Given all the players missing for both teams, we won’t bother detailing the team net YPP margins.
The Trojans have taken down six (!) bowl teams this season; TCU has defeated three.
This game is much closer to home for TCU, so that’s a theoretical edge for the Frogs.
TCU is 5–6–1 ATS, while USC is a dismal 4–7–1 vs the number.
Summary
It’s very disappointing seeing both of these teams with SKELETON CREWS. Tough call.
Conclusion
No leanage
‘Official play’ means that this is one of our favorite plays of the week (perceived value, match-up, coaching, trends, etc.). We’re currently investing 25% more on these plays vs our ‘leans’. We’ll normally have two or three of these choices per week.
‘Lean’ means that we’re placing a standard size wager on the game. We’ll normally have about ten of these plays per week. Many members prefer to pick and choose amongst these games when finalizing their weekly investment cards so we’ll continue to refer to them as ‘leans’.
‘No leanage’ means that we won’t have any action on the game.
Team totals – We’ll list the implied number based on the point spread and total when our analysis is posted. If a team total ends up being an ‘official play’ we’ll post a widely available number at the time of pick release.