posted December 29
Las Vegas Bowl – Nebraska vs Utah
The Game
The City of Sin. The Den of Debauchery. The land of $38 beers. Ah yes, it’s Las Vegas.
Utah (10–2) had a pretty good regular season, but their Big 12 fate was essentially sealed when they dropped their second conference game in mid‑October. The Utes played well down the stretch and come into this one on a five‑game HEATER.
Nebraska (7–5) started the season with promise, winning five of their first six contests, but a blowout loss to Minnesota on the road sent them on an unfortunate detour straight to TURD TOWN. They roll into Vegas on a two‑game losing streak.
The Details
Utah -14 Nebraska (50.5)
MEGALOCKS LINE – Utah -13
“Vegas” Implied Projected Score: Utah 32.25 Nebraska 18.25
Utah offense vs Nebraska defense
The Utes have the most devastating run game outside of the Naval Academy, averaging a whopping 270 YPG on the ground (#2 FBS). It all starts with mobility at the QB position, and it appears both Devon Dampier (687 yards, 7 TD) and Byrd Ficklin (503 yards, 10 TD) will be available in this event. They should also have #1 RB Wayshawn Parker in the fold (931 yards, 6 TD), but you never know who might quit before kickoff.
The THROW GAME has been inconsistent, but the Dampier/Ficklin combo has still produced a SPICY 25–5 TD‑to‑INT ratio. The WR weaponry won’t scare too many teams, but Ryan Davis is a productive specimen (659 yards, 4 TD), and the Utes do a great job utilizing the TE position as easy targets (Bentley, Buchanan). The big question mark on offense is the departure of the Utes’ star tackle tandem, which was absolutely critical to their success.
This isn’t a great matchup for the CORN defense, as they’ve struggled defending the run (171 YPG, #97) and allowed three of their last four opponents to rush for 200+ yards. The Huskers have been stingy vs the pass (#13 pass‑efficiency D), and they’ve only allowed 7 (!) TD passes all year (#2 FBS). That’s pretty impressive, even if they haven’t faced a murderer’s row of opposing QBs. We won’t get a clear idea of who might be skipping the game on this side of the football for CORN until closer to kickoff.
Nebraska offense vs Utah defense
The Huskers have been mediocre on offense (373 YPG, #81; 29 PPG, #53), and they’ll be without star RB Emmett Johnson (1,451 yards, 12 TD) in this game — a YUUUGE blow to their chances of consistently moving the football. The depth behind him is unproven, but we still suspect CORN will try to pound the ground game, especially since the Utes were a disaster defending the run down the stretch. In the last month of the season, Cincinnati rushed for 206, Kansas State rumbled for 472 (!!), and Kansas gashed them for 290.
Backup QB TJ Lateef has been a pleasant surprise considering he’s just a true freshman (4–0 TD‑to‑INT, 3 rush TD), and he’s got a decent set of WRs to work with in this one (Hunter, Barney Jr., Key), presuming they all show up. As noted, Utah’s run defense has been sketchy, but they’ve only allowed two (!) teams to throw for over 225 yards all season (#3 pass‑efficiency D). It’s also worth noting that Utah’s top two pass rushers — who combined for 16 sacks — Logan Fano and John Henry Daley, will both miss this showdown.
Trends, Intangibles, and More!
This looked like the ULTIMATE motivational play when the bowl matchups were announced as it was thought that this would be legendary HC Kyle Whittingham’s last game with Utah. However, he’s off to coach Michigan, and there are a lot of players skipping the game.
Utah has lost FIVE (!!) bowl games in a row dating back to the 2018 Holiday Bowl.
Nebraska HC Matt Rhule is 2-2 in bowl games (1-0 with the Huskers).
Utah is 8-4 ATS whilst Nebraska is just 5-7 vs the number.
Nebraska is +0.59 in net YPP margin vs the #53 schedule. They’ve beaten two bowl teams (Northwestern, Cincinnati).
Utah is +1.24 in net YPP margin vs the #59 schedule. The Utes have taken down two bowl squads (Arizona St, Cincinnati) and bowl eligible Kansas St.
Summary
Utah will still be able to do plenty of damage on the ground, even with some key missing pieces on the offensive line. It’s just tough to lay this many points in a bowl game vs a well‑coached team that doesn’t plan on being embarrassed. Without the “WIN ONE FOR THE GIPPER” motivation on Utah’s side, we’ll have to take a pass for now.
Conclusion
No leanage so far.
‘Official play’ means that this is one of our favorite plays of the week (perceived value, match-up, coaching, trends, etc.). We’re currently investing 25% more on these plays vs our ‘leans’. We’ll normally have two or three of these choices per week.
‘Lean’ means that we’re placing a standard size wager on the game. We’ll normally have about ten of these plays per week. Many members prefer to pick and choose amongst these games when finalizing their weekly investment cards so we’ll continue to refer to them as ‘leans’.
‘No leanage’ means that we won’t have any action on the game.
Team totals – We’ll list the implied number based on the point spread and total when our analysis is posted. If a team total ends up being an ‘official play’ we’ll post a widely available number at the time of pick release.