posted December 30
Holiday Bowl – Arizona vs SMU
The Game
We head over to beautiful San Diego for another edition of the Holiday Bowl. This has the potential to be one of the best games of the bowl season as the Arizona Wildcats tangle with the SMU Mustangs.
Arizona (9–3) has booked nine wins, and they’ve been a very underrated entity this year. The Cats lost three times in a four‑game stretch at midseason, but they finished strong, ending the regular season on a five‑game (!) HEATER.
SMU (8–4) appeared to be on a DATE with DESTINY and another trip to the ACC Championship Game, but they were ambushed by a communist insurgency courtesy of the California Golden Bears in the regular‑season finale (L 38–35). It’s worth noting that three of the Mustangs’ four losses came by a combined seven (!) points.
The Details
Arizona -3 SMU (52)
MEGALOCKS LINE – Arizona -3
“Vegas” Implied Projected Score: Arizona 27.5 SMU 24.5
Arizona offense vs SMU defense
The Wildcats do most of their damage through the air (#4 Big 12) behind the arm of star QB Noah Fifita, who’s one of the most efficient quarterbacks in the country (64%, 26–5 TD‑to‑INT). Arizona has a deep set of WRs — six (!!) wideouts with 250+ receiving yards — led by Kris Hutson (740 yards, 4 TD). The Cats also have legit depth at RB, and Ismail Mahdi is good enough to gash you if you pay too much attention to the THROW GAME (791 yards, 6.4 YPC, 4 TD).
SMU’s calling card on defense is stopping the run (106 YPG, #19), but they can absolutely be carved up through the air. It seems impossible, but SMU ranks #135 (2nd worst) in the country allowing 285 passing yards per game. It sure feels like Fifita is poised to have a good day — as long as he’s kept clean.
That’s the catch: SMU brings a real pass rush (34 sacks, #23), and that could be an issue for an Arizona OL that’s yielded 30 sacks (3rd worst in the Big 12).
SMU offense vs Arizona defense
On offense, the Mustangs are a mirror image of their defense — they do a great job moving the ball with the THROW GAME thanks to ace QB Kevin Jennings (3,363 yards, 66%, 26–10 TD‑to‑INT). Jennings does a fantastic job spreading the ball around to all kinds of weaponry — eight players with 160+ receiving yards — including WR Jordan Hudson (749 yards, 6 TD), and that makes life difficult for opposing secondaries.
Thankfully for Arizona, they’re elite when it comes to defending the pass — #1 FBS pass‑efficiency defense (53% allowed, 9–19 TD‑to‑INT) — so unless there’s a wave of quitting/opt‑outs in the Wildcats secondary before kickoff, SMU is going to have issues moving the ball via the air assault. The Mustangs have almost no running game to speak of (#90), and Arizona is decent vs the run (#64).
Trends, Intangibles, and More!
Arizona has won two of their last three bowl appearances, but note that HC Brent Brennan was 0–3 in bowl games during his time at San Jose State.
SMU boss Rhett Lashlee is one of the more underrated HCs around, but he’s also 0–3 in bowl action. The Mustangs’ last bowl win came all the way back in 2012 (!!) when they blasted Fresno State in the Hawaii Bowl.
Arizona is +1.29 in net YPP margin vs the #63 schedule. They’ve beaten three bowl teams (Arizona State, Cincinnati, Hawaii) and two bowl‑eligible squads that bailed on the postseason (Kansas State, Iowa State).
SMU is +1.10 in net YPP margin vs the #58 schedule. The Mustangs have defeated four bowl squads (Miami, Missouri State, Clemson, LUA‑VUH).
Arizona is 8–4 ATS, whilst SMU is a mediocre 5–7 vs the number.
Summary
We prefer the Wildcats in this affair as they’ve got preferable matchups on both sides of the football. We’ll wait a wee bit for more player availability news and go from there.
Conclusion
Holding pattern as per above.
‘Official play’ means that this is one of our favorite plays of the week (perceived value, match-up, coaching, trends, etc.). We’re currently investing 25% more on these plays vs our ‘leans’. We’ll normally have two or three of these choices per week.
‘Lean’ means that we’re placing a standard size wager on the game. We’ll normally have about ten of these plays per week. Many members prefer to pick and choose amongst these games when finalizing their weekly investment cards so we’ll continue to refer to them as ‘leans’.
‘No leanage’ means that we won’t have any action on the game.
Team totals – We’ll list the implied number based on the point spread and total when our analysis is posted. If a team total ends up being an ‘official play’ we’ll post a widely available number at the time of pick release.