CFP – Round Two – Oregon vs Texas Tech
Posted December 28
The Game
WHOA, NELLIE!
This has always been our favorite bowl game going way, way, way back… and what a treat we’ve got this year.
Oregon (12–1) rolled through the regular season, though they did have to gut out a couple of close ones (Penn State, Iowa). The Ducks waddled out to a massive 48–13 lead vs James Madison in Round One but somehow failed to cover after letting some scrubs play on defense in the 4th quarter (W 51–34).
Texas Tech (12–1) has been an absolute WAGON, ripping teams apart pretty much from start to finish. Their only loss came back in October when they had to face Arizona State on the road without their starting QB. The Red Raiders are well‑rested and should be ready to rock and roll.
Let’s go!
The Details
Oregon -1.5 Texas Tech (52.5)
MEGALOCKS LINE – Oregon -1
“Vegas” Implied Projected Score: Oregon 27 Texas Tech 25.5
Oregon offense vs Texas Tech defense
Oregon has a devastating rushing attack (217 YPG, #13 FBS), and they’ve got a trio of extremely productive RBs (Whittington, Davison, Hill) who’ve combined for almost 2,000 (!) yards and 24 TDs. The Ducks will be tested to the limit here, as the Red Raiders boast the #1 rushing defense in the nation (68 YPG!) and have allowed just one team to crack 100 yards in their last eight outings. Oregon struggled on the ground in their loss to Indiana (81 yards) and even in their win over Washington (106 yards), so it’ll be fascinating to see how this matchup plays out.
QB Dante Moore has been phenomenal this season (72%, 28–8 TD‑to‑INT), and he’s going to need at least an “A‑” performance if Oregon is going to come out on top. We still don’t know the status of a small handful of Oregon WRs, but at minimum they’ll have legit targets in WR Malik Benson, WR Jeremiah McClellan, and star TE Kenyon Sadiq (509 yards, 8 TD).
Texas Tech has been extremely tough to throw on this year (#6 pass‑efficiency D, 11–16 TD‑to‑INT, 5.4 YPA!) and they also bring one of the most dangerous pass rushes in college football (39 sacks, #6). Moore gets the ball out quickly and the offensive line has been excellent in protection (14 sacks allowed, #14), so this will be another great battle to watch.
Texas Tech offense vs Oregon defense
The Red Raiders also know a thing or two about SCORING the FOOTBALL, averaging 42.5 PPG (#2) and 480 YPG (#5). Texas Tech’s preferred mode of transportation is through the air (289 YPG, #10) behind the arm of veteran QB Behren Morton (67%, 22–4 TD‑to‑INT), and he’ll be up against an excellent Oregon secondary — second half vs James Madison notwithstanding (#6 pass‑efficiency D, 51%, 14–13 TD‑to‑INT).
The Red Raiders have a deep set of WR/TE weaponry, boasting three WRs with 600+ receiving yards, plus their own star TE in Terrance Carter (552 yards, 5 TD). And you can’t sleep on the Texas Tech ground game either, with a 1,000‑yard RB in Cameron Dickey (14 TD!) and a strong backup option in J’Koby Williams (787 yards, 6 TD).
The Ducks are top‑25 in terms of stopping the run (#113), but they’ll have their hands full with this Red Raiders offense, that’s for sure. Oregon doesn’t do a great job getting to the passer (25 sacks), so Morton should have time to operate.
Trends, Intangibles, and More!
One of the most fascinating angles to this game is strength of schedule. Oregon has played the #17 schedule and booked a number of impressive wins, whilst the Red Raiders’ (#68) claim to fame is beating Utah on the road, and destroying BYU twice. Can Texas Tech handle the step up in class?
Summary
This should be a blast. Two teams that are legit contenders for all the marbles going head‑to‑head down in Miami. We’ve gone back and forth on this bad boy and haven’t formed a clear opinion just yet. We’ll keep digging and will endeavor to find a few player props at a minimum.
Conclusion
No leanage so far.
‘Official play’ means that this is one of our favorite plays of the week (perceived value, match-up, coaching, trends, etc.). We’re currently investing 25% more on these plays vs our ‘leans’. We’ll normally have two or three of these choices per week.
‘Lean’ means that we’re placing a standard size wager on the game. We’ll normally have about ten of these plays per week. Many members prefer to pick and choose amongst these games when finalizing their weekly investment cards so we’ll continue to refer to them as ‘leans’.
‘No leanage’ means that we won’t have any action on the game.
Team totals – We’ll list the implied number based on the point spread and total when our analysis is posted. If a team total ends up being an ‘official play’ we’ll post a widely available number at the time of pick release.