CFP – Round Two – Alabama vs Indiana
posted December 26
The Game
WHOA, NELLIE.
We’ve got an amazing Rose Bowl clash to look forward to on New Year’s Day as the Indiana Hoosiers put their undefeated record on the line against the Alabama Crimson Tide.
Indiana (13–0) has looked fantastic from start to finish, rolling into the CFP fresh off a Big Ten Championship win over THE Ohio State University. Add in road wins at Oregon (!) and Penn State, and there’s no doubt the Hoosiers are one of the most battle‑tested teams in the country.
ROLL TIDE (11–3) looked DEAD IN THE WATER in their Round One matchup with Oklahoma, but they stormed back from a 17‑CACK deficit to win the game fairly comfortably. Can they pull another RABBIT out of the HAT in Pasadena?
The Details
Indiana -6.5 Alabama (48.5)
MEGALOCKS LINE – Indiana -6
“Vegas” Implied Projected Score: Indiana 27.5 Alabama 21
Indiana offense vs Alabama defense
The Hoosiers have a very balanced offense (#10 rush, #45 pass), and it certainly doesn’t hurt to have the Heisman Trophy winner at the controls. QB Fernando Mendoza (33–6 TD‑to‑INT, 6 rush TD) gives Indiana a steady hand and a dynamic element, and he’s surrounded by one of the best WR trios in the country (Cooper Jr., Sarratt, Becker). That gives Mendoza plenty of options against an excellent Tide secondary that’s been both stingy and opportunistic this season (#31 pass‑efficiency D, 13–11 TD‑to‑INT).
Indiana can also do real damage on the ground behind an excellent offensive line, and the 1–2 RB combo of Roman Hemby and Kaelon Black has combined for over 1,700 rushing yards and 13 TDs. Alabama has held up well vs the run for most of the season (121 YPG allowed, #30), and they’ve been particularly stout since the midpoint of the campaign.
The key to this game just might be how Indiana fares on 3rd down. They’re used to success on 3rd down (#1 in FBS at a ridiculous 56%!), whilst the Tide can absolutely hold their own on the money down (#34 3rd‑down D).
Alabama offense vs Indiana defense
The Tide will go as far in the CFP as the arm of QB Ty Simpson can take them. Simpson (3,500 yards, 28–5 TD‑to‑INT) has a great set of weaponry to MATRICULATE the ball down the field, including a devastating set of WRs including the crafty Germie Bernard (802 yards, 7 TD) and emerging star Lotzeir Brooks, who had a YUUUGE game vs the Sooners in Round One (79 yards, 2 TD).
The rushing attack has been non‑existent all season (110 YPG, #120!), and that’s very, very, very bad news against a Hoosiers run defense that ranks among the best in college football (78 YPG, #3 FBS). Indiana also brings a serious pass rush to the table (39 sacks, #6), and they showed their teeth in the Big Ten Championship Game by burying the seemingly untouchable Julian Sayin five times.
Trends, Intangibles, and More!
Both of these teams have been friends to DEGENERATES across the globe. Alabama sits at 9–5 ATS, while the Hoosiers check in at 8–5 vs the number.
ROLL TIDE HC Kalen DeBoer led Washington to the National Championship Game in 2023. They were smoked by Michigan, sure, but that kind of experience absolutely comes in handy on this stage.
Indiana was torched by Notre Dame in Round One of the CFP last season, but it’s fair to say the Hoosiers will be more prepared for an epic battle like this one.
Summary
This should be a fantastic game. The Tide are a one‑dimensional operation on offense, but that one dimension is fantastic. Indiana is clearly the more balanced team, but Alabama is playing with HOUSE MONEY right now. We’ve got this BAD BOY lined right at market. Nothing on the game for now — we’ll keep digging, and we might even uncover a player prop or two worth firing on.
Conclusion
No leanage for now.
‘Official play’ means that this is one of our favorite plays of the week (perceived value, match-up, coaching, trends, etc.). We’re currently investing 25% more on these plays vs our ‘leans’. We’ll normally have two or three of these choices per week.
‘Lean’ means that we’re placing a standard size wager on the game. We’ll normally have about ten of these plays per week. Many members prefer to pick and choose amongst these games when finalizing their weekly investment cards so we’ll continue to refer to them as ‘leans’.
‘No leanage’ means that we won’t have any action on the game.
Team totals – We’ll list the implied number based on the point spread and total when our analysis is posted. If a team total ends up being an ‘official play’ we’ll post a widely available number at the time of pick release.