CFP – Fiesta Bowl – Ole Miss vs Miami
posted January 7
The Game
Yes, guy.
YOUR Miami Hurricanes have been very impressive thus far in the CFP, stacking impressive wins over Texas A&M and Ohio State whilst doing their part to unite Western Civilization. Let’s be honest — the world is simply a better place when Miami is winning big games.
Now sitting at 12–2, the Hurricanes face what might be their toughest test yet: a showdown with the explosive Ole Miss Rebels (13–1). The Rebels are fresh off a thrilling 39–34 Sugar Bowl win over mighty Georgia, proving they’re doing just fine, thank you very much, without your boy Lane Kiffin steering the ship. This matchup has all the ingredients for a Thursday night classic — speed, swagger, and two teams that have the talent to win it all.
Let’s go!
The Details
Miami -3.5 Ole Miss (52.5)
MEGALOCKS LINE – Miami -3
“Vegas” Implied Projected Score: Miami 28 Ole Miss 24.5
Miami offense vs Ole Miss defense
Miami leaned on the run game to close things out against both Texas A&M and Ohio State, and we expect them to follow a similar script against Ole Miss. RB Marc Fletcher has been fantastic during the CFP run (36 carries, 262 yards, 7.3 YPC), and we loved the way Miami kept things fresh late in the Ohio State game by rolling out a rested CharMar Brown to help salt it away. Ole Miss has been sneaky‑good against the run over their last six games (124 YPG allowed), so it’ll be fascinating to see how they hold up against Miami’s excellent OL and talented RB room.
True freshman WR Malachi Toney (94, 1008, 8 TD) has been relatively quiet over the last two contests, and whilst Miami has still found ways to win, we think Toney needs to have a much bigger presence if the Hurricanes plan on leaving Glendale with a victory. Ole Miss can be had through the air, and we expect QB Carson Beck to be a bit more aggressive in this matchup.
Overall, Miami’s blueprint should revolve around running the football and controlling pace and tempo, sprinkling in a few deep shots to keep Ole Miss honest. Because let’s be real — it’s going to be extremely difficult to hold the Rebels under 20 points. Miami will have to hit some big plays in the THROW GAME.
Ole Miss offense vs Miami defense
Ole Miss did a fantastic job against Georgia, thanks largely to the stellar play of star QB Trinidad Chambliss, who absolutely shredded the Bulldogs’ secondary (362 yards, 2 TD, 0 INT). Chambliss wasn’t sacked a single time (!) and added just 14 yards on the ground, but his mobility was still a major factor — he consistently bought extra time for his excellent WR/TE group to uncover and create explosive plays. RB Kewan Lacy was also a key contributor in the Sugar Bowl win (98 yards, 2 TD), and there’s no doubt this matchup represents Miami’s toughest test of the season.
The good news for the Hurricanes is that they boast the most devastating defensive line remaining in the CFP, and the Ole Miss offensive line is in for a stern challenge. Rueben Bain and Akheem Mesidor have been full‑blown game‑wreckers up front, and Miami has racked up 12 sacks in two CFP games and 21 over their last four contests. Ole Miss can absolutely do damage against the Miami secondary if Chambliss is able to escape pressure and extend plays — and that’s the biggest matchup of the night. His ability to evade the rush and give weapons like WR Harrison Wallace, WR De’Zhaun Stribling, and TE Dae’Quan Wright time to operate will determine whether the Rebels can do enough to win this game.
It’s setting up to be an epic battle, yo.
Trends, Intangibles, and More!
Both teams have been excellent vs the spread this season. Miami is 9-5 ATS whilst Ole Miss is 8-6 vs the number.
Summary
What a fantastic matchup!
This game is extremely tough to call. Miami has a YUUUGE advantage at the line of scrimmage (OL/DL) but Ole Miss has a massive edge on offense with QB Trinidad Chambliss and friends. The game looks lined appropriately, and we’ll almost certainly take a pass on this BAD BOY.
Conclusion
No lenanage so far.
‘Official play’ means that this is one of our favorite plays of the week (perceived value, match-up, coaching, trends, etc.). We’re currently investing 25% more on these plays vs our ‘leans’. We’ll normally have two or three of these choices per week.
‘Lean’ means that we’re placing a standard size wager on the game. We’ll normally have about ten of these plays per week. Many members prefer to pick and choose amongst these games when finalizing their weekly investment cards so we’ll continue to refer to them as ‘leans’.
‘No leanage’ means that we won’t have any action on the game.
Team totals – We’ll list the implied number based on the point spread and total when our analysis is posted. If a team total ends up being an ‘official play’ we’ll post a widely available number at the time of pick release.