CFP – Peach Bowl – Oregon vs Indiana
posted January 9
The Game
WHOA, NELLIE.
We get the rematch, yo.
The Indiana Hoosiers (14-0) put on another amazing display in the Rose Bowl as they ripped ROLL TIDE to shreds (W 38-3), and they look as efficient and deadly as ever heading into the rematch with the Ducks. Oregon (13-1) completely embarrassed Texas Tech, if we’re being honest, especially the Red Raiders’ offense, in a 23-zip smackdown in the Orange Bowl. The Ducks lost on their home field vs Indiana back in October (L 30-20) and will look to exact revenge on Friday night.
The Details
Indiana -3.5 Oregon (47.5)
MEGALOCKS LINE – Indiana -5
“Vegas” Implied Projected Score: Indiana 25.5 Oregon 22
Indiana offense vs Oregon defense
It just doesn’t seem fair anymore, yo.
The Hoosiers just absolutely smoked ROLL TIDE in the Rose Bowl and they won the yardage battle 407-193 whilst booking a 6.17-3.86 YPP advantage. Heisman Trophy winner QB Fernando Mendoza has a ridiculous 36-6 TD to INT ratio and he’s coming off a very efficient game vs the Tide in which he was 14/16 for 192 yards and 3 TDs. The offensive line plowed the way for RBs Roman Hemby and Kaelon Black to each get very close to the 100-yard mark on the ground. Oregon is going to have a very difficult time slowing these guys down, and we haven’t even talked about Indiana’s outstanding TRIUMVIRATE at WR (Cooper Jr, Sarratt, Becker) that makes Indiana’s offense almost unstoppable.
Oregon did an outstanding job vs the Texas Tech offense in a shutout win in the Orange Bowl, but the Red Raiders’ offense is a clear notch down from what the Ducks will face in the Peach Bowl. The good news for Oregon is that they held the Hoosiers to just 4.79 YPP in their first meeting which was Indiana’s worst output all year by a wide margin. The Ducks have also picked up 10 sacks over their L3G, and there’s definitely a chance they can get to Mendoza and rattle him a bit. Alabama doesn’t have a lethal pass rush and even they managed to get Mendoza to the ground three times during the Rose Bowl.
Overall, we don’t expect things to come easy for Indiana but they are just too balanced and efficient to be held down for four quarters. Their implied team total of 25.5 looks about right.
Oregon offense vs Indiana defense
The Ducks aren’t as explosive as the Hoosiers, but they’re still getting top-notch QB play from Dante Moore (73%, 28–9 TD to INT), who’s had to manufacture plays in the THROW GAME despite a litany of injuries at the WR position. There are still some interesting weapons to utilize at WR/TE, including WR Malik Benson and TE Kenyon Sadiq, but it’s definitely not a group that will keep Indiana up at night. The Hoosiers’ prime focus will be shutting down the Oregon ground attack, and recall that they held the Ducks to just 81 net rushing yards on 30 carries in their first meeting. The sack yardage (6)(!) piled up, making the rushing totals look pretty bad, but the reality is that they couldn’t consistently move the ball on the Indiana defense in the October meeting. The Ducks were held to just 267 yards on 81 plays (4.17 YPP!), and the Hoosiers’ defense is playing as well as ever as we approach press time. Some bad news for the Ducks – One piece of the three-headed monster at RB (Jordan Davison, 15 TD) is out for the season due to injury.
The key to Oregon doing enough to win this game is limiting turnovers (how about zero?) and penalties, and scoring TDs instead of FGs when they get into the red zone. That’s easier said than done, but it’s probably the only way they can emerge victorious.
Trends, Intangibles, and More!
Both teams have been very kind to DEGENERATES across the globe this season. The Ducks and Hoosiers each boast ATS marks of 9-5 vs Vegas.
Summary
Indiana is clearly the best team in college football. That doesn’t make them unbeatable, but they should be able to win and cover, and head on to the National Championship Game.
Conclusion
Lean – Indiana -3.5
Consensus is -3.5
Posted Jan 8 11:25pm
‘Official play’ means that this is one of our favorite plays of the week (perceived value, match-up, coaching, trends, etc.). We’re currently investing 25% more on these plays vs our ‘leans’. We’ll normally have two or three of these choices per week.
‘Lean’ means that we’re placing a standard size wager on the game. We’ll normally have about ten of these plays per week. Many members prefer to pick and choose amongst these games when finalizing their weekly investment cards so we’ll continue to refer to them as ‘leans’.
‘No leanage’ means that we won’t have any action on the game.
Team totals – We’ll list the implied number based on the point spread and total when our analysis is posted. If a team total ends up being an ‘official play’ we’ll post a widely available number at the time of pick release.