Week 9 – Texas A&M at LSU
The Game
Get Cho Popcone, yo.Texas A&M (7–0) rolls into Baton Rouge tied atop the SEC standings with ROLL TIDE, fresh off a nail-biting 45–42 win over WOO PIG! Arkansas. The Aggies are ranked No. 3 and looking to stay perfect as they chase a spot in the College Football Playoff.
LSU (5–2) has been a bit of a disappointment, dropping two of their last three, including a tough 31–24 loss to Vanderbilt. But they’re still ranked No. 20 and have plenty of talent — and plenty of chances — to turn the season around. A win here would reignite their CFP hopes and set the stage for a wild November.
This BAD BOY kicks off Saturday night under the lights.
Let’s go!
The Details
Texas A&M -2.5 LSU (49.5)
MEGALOCKS LINE – Texas A&M -3.5
“Vegas” Implied Projected Score: Texas A&M 26 LSU 23.5
Texas A&M offense vs LSU defense
The Aggies have been one of the most consistent offensive outfits in the nation this season, and they’ve got the balance to back it up — 197 rushing yards per game (#30 FBS) and a lethal THROW GAME led by star QB Marcel Reed (15–4 TD to INT). Reed’s got two devastating weapons in Mario Craver (668 yards, 19.1 YPC, 4 TD) and KC Concepcion (500 yards, 15.2 YPC, 6 TD), who’s basically untackleable even in a phone booth with four grown men. Texas A&M has only allowed seven sacks all year, and LSU’s pass rush is midpack in the SEC, so the Aggies should be able to move the football consistently. LSU’s defense ranks #5 in the SEC in total defense, but they’ve been gashed on the ground lately — 239 yards allowed to Vanderbilt, 193 to South Carolina, and 166 to Ole Miss. And with star LB Whit Weeks out, they’ll be missing a key piece in the middle. DC Blake Baker has had a tough time at times containing mobile QBs — Exhibit A being last year’s 89–3 demolition by ROLL TIDE and QB Jalen Milroe ****.
**** Fact check – The score may be off, but that’s what it looked like.
LSU offense vs Texas A&M defense
LSU has only managed to score 24, 20, 19, and 20 points in their four SEC tilts this season, and the main culprit is their inability to establish a run game. The Tigers rank second-to-last in the SEC in rushing offense (113 YPG, #117 FBS), and that lack of balance has put extra pressure on QB Garrett Nussmeier — who hasn’t looked like the same dood from last year (11–5 TD to INT, 7.1 YPA), whether it’s injury-related or not. The WR group has flashed, but it’s nowhere near the 2024 unit that lit up scoreboards. Meanwhile, Texas A&M has been shredded by two elite offenses (Notre Dame, WOO PIG), but they’ve handled average attacks like LSU’s with ease — allowing just 17, 9, 10, 22, and 24 points in those matchups. The Aggies rank #3 in the SEC with 28 sacks (!) and will be licking their chops, especially with LSU missing their starting left tackle. The Tigers have done a solid job keeping Nussmeier clean, but this will be a serious test — and one that could tilt the game if the pressure gets home. LSU needs a breakthrough. Texas A&M just needs to keep doing what they do.
Trends, Intangibles, and More!
The legend keeps growing. Depending on which talking head you listen to, LSU is either 14–1, 19–1, or 58–1 at home at night under HC Brian Kelly. Nobody seems to ask what happened vs ROLL TIDE last year (blown to bits), or how they slithered past Ole Miss in OT. And sure, it’s easy to rack up night wins when the average opponent is Merrimack or East Texas A&M Flute Academy.
Kelly’s overall record at LSU vs ranked opponents? 5–10. But hey, who cares — he’s 149–1 at home at night! And the CROWD will be ROCKING.
One legit concern for Texas A&M: they haven’t won in Death Valley since 1994, and the home team has taken each of the last eight matchups. That’s not just a trend — that’s a curse.
Conclusion
Both teams have played tough schedules. Texas A&M is +137 in YPG margin (LSU +56). Texas A&M is +1.42 in YPP margin. LSU is +1.02. Texas A&M is +18 in net sacks. LSU is +8. The Aggies are the better team on paper, but LSU’s voodoo in Baton Rouge after sundown has to be respected.
Official pick – Texas A&M -2.5 -110
-2.5 is the clear consensus
Sent 6:02pm Oct 24
‘Official play’ means that this is one of our favorite plays of the week (perceived value, match-up, coaching, trends, etc.). We’ll start the season investing 50% more on these plays vs our ‘leans’ or smaller plays. The 50% increased risk size may change during the season as we take stock of how things are going. We’ll update you here if things change. We’ll normally have two or three of these choices per week.
‘Lean’ means that it’s not one of our favorite plays of the week. Many members prefer to pick and choose amongst these games when finalizing their weekly investment cards. We’ve used this terminology for over 20 years, so as annoying as the word ‘lean’ may be, we’ll continue to refer to them as ‘leans’. We’ll normally have about ten of these plays per week.
‘No leanage’ means that we won’t have any action on the game.
Team totals – We’ll list the implied number based on the point spread and total when our analysis is posted. If a team total ends up being an ‘official play’ we’ll post a widely available number at the time of pick release.