Week 13 – Tennessee at Florida
The Game
We’ve got some SWEET SEC RIVARLY GAME ACTION on Saturday night as Tennessee travels to The Swamp to battle Florida. The Vols (7-3) are out of the CFP hunt after participating in 2024, but their three losses came vs some TOUGH HOMBRES (Georgia, Tide, Oklahoma). Florida (3-7) has shown some nice flashes at points during the season, but they’ve lost seven games and are working with an interim head coach.
This should be an entertaining game with lots of hatred to go around!
The Details
Tennessee -4 Florida (57)
MEGALOCKS LINE – Tennessee -4
“Vegas” Implied Projected Score: Tennessee 30.5 Florida 26.5
Tennessee offense vs Florida defense
The Volunteers have been a potent operation under QB Joey Aguilar, ranking #1 in the SEC in YPP, #7 in rushing, and #1 in passing. Aguilar is one of the best in the country at hitting big plays with the help of his devastating WR trio (Brazzell, Staley, Matthews), though he can be coaxed into the occasional mistake (22-10 TD to INT). The Vols also feature a deep RB group led by DeSean Bishop (770 yards, 6.5 YPC, 10 TD), making them a very tough offense to defend.
Florida hasn’t lived up to their usual defensive standards this season, sitting #13 in the SEC in YPP, #13 in run defense, and #12 in pass efficiency defense. They just gave up 538 yards to Ole Miss and have allowed 230+ rushing yards in each of their last two games. Florida ranks #10 in the conference in sacks, while Tennessee is #2 in sacks allowed (13). The Gators should get some juice from the home crowd, but this remains an average SEC stop unit overall, even after adjusting for a tough schedule.
Florida offense vs Tennessee defense
It’s been a slog for most of the season as the Gators sit #15 (2nd last) in the SEC in YPP, #13 in rushing, and #12 in passing. QB DJ Lagway has delivered mediocre play (12-13 TD to INT), and a decimated WR corps hasn’t helped. They may get leading receiver freshman Vernell Brown back this week (485 yards, 0 TD), which would be a boost, but overall it’s been a disappointing set of THROW GAME weaponry. RB Jaden Baugh has done a fine job (808 yards, 4.9 YPC, 6 TD), yet the run game hasn’t been that potent, especially with no mobility at QB.
Tennessee’s defense isn’t anything special (#11 SEC YPP, #9 run D, #14 pass efficiency D), but they can crank up the pressure (33 sacks, #4 SEC), and Lagway doesn’t exactly shine under duress.
Trends, Intangibles, and More!
Tennessee has lost 11 (!) straight games in The Swamp. Crazy, but true. Of course, Florida has been the much better team for the majority of that stretch, and the Vols never had the luxury of facing a seven-loss squad with an interim head coach. Florida has played the #1 schedule, while Tennessee’s docket sits at #44. That’s a bit misleading, though, since the Gators had Miami and USF in non-conference play (both losses) in addition to their tough SEC battles. Tennessee, meanwhile, has faced Georgia (lost in OT), ROLL TIDE on the road (won the yardage battle), and Oklahoma (outgained them by over 100 yards). They also crushed Kentucky on the road (56-34) — the same Kentucky team that SPANKED Florida 38-7 in Lexington just a few weeks ago. Tennessee is +0.90 YPP in SEC action, Florida is -0.55.
Summary
There’s no reason to believe that Tennessee can’t win and cover this game. Series history at The Swamp says otherwise, but the clear talent edge in this game is with Tennessee.
Conclusion
We’ll have something on this game on Friday, no later than 6pm-ish.
UPDATE
Lean – Tennessee -4
-4 is consensus. You can find -3.5 -115s out there.
Lots of money on Florida so you may wanna wait to get a better number. We’ve got a deadline to meet. The odds of the line going higher than -4 are probably 5% or so, but that’s just like our opinion, man.
Posted 6:10pm Nov 21
‘Official play’ means that this is one of our favorite plays of the week (perceived value, match-up, coaching, trends, etc.). We’ll start the season investing 50% more on these plays vs our ‘leans’ or smaller plays. The 50% increased risk size may change during the season as we take stock of how things are going. We’ll update you here if things change. We’ll normally have two or three of these choices per week.
‘Lean’ means that it’s not one of our favorite plays of the week. Many members prefer to pick and choose amongst these games when finalizing their weekly investment cards. We’ve used this terminology for over 20 years, so as annoying as the word ‘lean’ may be, we’ll continue to refer to them as ‘leans’. We’ll normally have about ten of these plays per week.
‘No leanage’ means that we won’t have any action on the game.
Team totals – We’ll list the implied number based on the point spread and total when our analysis is posted. If a team total ends up being an ‘official play’ we’ll post a widely available number at the time of pick release.