Week 1 QUICK TAKES – College Football Predictions
Here are some QUICK TAKES on the games that did not make the cut for a longer write-up this week.
Let’s go!
WE’RE DONE FOR THE WEEK. Good luck, PLAY SAFE, and enjoy the games!
Handy index: Quick Takes
Games with analysis completed are in bold.
Picks are in BOLD CAPS.
We may come back to games during the week. Stay tuned!
- NORTH CAROLINA vs TCU (Dublin, Ireland) (Sat Aug 29) — (LEAN) — SEE FULL GAME ANALYSIS PAGE
- San Jose St at USC (Sat Aug 29)
- NC State at Virginia (Sat Aug 29)
- Jacksonville St at NORTH DAKOTA ST (Sat Aug 29) (LEAN)
- SACRAMENTO ST at EASTERN MICHIGAN (Sat Aug 29) (LEAN)
- New Mexico St at Florida St (Sat Aug 29)
- Hawaii at Stanford (Sat Aug 29)
- Memphis at UNLV (Sat Aug 29)
- Massachusetts at Rutgers (Thurs Sept 3)
- Akron at Wake Forest (Thurs Sept 3)
- Colorado at Georgia Tech (Thurs Sept 3)
- UAB at Illinois (Thurs Sept 3)
- San Jose St at Eastern Michigan (Fri Sept 4)
- Toledo at MICHIGAN ST (Fri Sept 4) (LEAN)
- UTEP at Oklahoma (Fri Sept 4)
- Fresno St at USC (Fri Sept 4)
- Miami at Stanford
- Coastal Carolina at WEST VIRGINIA (LEAN)
- East Carolina at Alabama
- Liberty at James Madison
- Miami Ohio at Pittsburgh
- North Texas at Indiana
- Ohio at NEBRASKA (LEAN)
- Oregon St at Houston
- UCLA at California
- Ball St at Ohio St
- Kent St at South Carolina
- Baylor vs Auburn (Atlanta)
- Boise St at Oregon
- Boston College at Cincinnati
- Marshall at Penn St
- Texas St at Texas
- Tulane at Duke
- Oklahoma St at Tulsa
- Northern Illinois at Iowa
- WYOMING at Colorado St (OFFICIAL PLAY)
- Arkansas St at Memphis
- Florida International at USF
- Missouri St at Texas A&M
- Sam Houston at Troy
- Clemson at LSU
- ULM at MISSISSIPPI ST (LEAN)
- Western Michigan at Michigan
- FAU at Florida
- Central Michigan at New Mexico
- UNLV at Hawaii
- Western Kentucky at NEVADA — (OFFICIAL PLAY)
- Washington St at Washington (Sun Sept 6)
- Louisville at Ole Miss (Nashville) (Sun Sept 6)
- WISCONSIN vs NOTRE DAME (Green Bay) (Sun Sept 6) (LEAN)
- SMU at FLORIDA ST (Mon Sept 7) — (LEAN) — SEE FULL GAME ANALYSIS PAGE
1. TCU -8.5 NORTH CAROLINA (47.5)………..MEGALOCKS line – TCU -6.5
Vegas Implied Score – TCU 28.0 North Carolina 19.5
SEE FULL GAME ANALYSIS PAGE
2. USC -38.5 San Jose St (60.5)………..MEGALOCKS line – USC -38
Vegas Implied Score – USC 49.5 San Jose St 11.0
Expect BLOWOUT CITY, as the Trojans have averaged (!) 58 PPG vs non‑conference turds at home over the last three seasons. San Jose State is in for a rough year and brings very little returning production to the table. Best idea on this game is probably a USC‑related derivative, such as their first‑half team total at 28 or better.
No leanage
3. Virginia -5.5 NC State (53.5)………..MEGALOCKS line – Virginia -6
Vegas Implied Score – Virginia 29.5 NC State 24.0
An immediate ACC clash right out of the gate carries massive weight, giving this season opener huge tiebreaker implications for conference title game positioning down the stretch. NC State boasts the premier signal-caller on the field with CJ Bailey under center, but Virginia counters with the superior overall roster and defense as they seek revenge for last season’s 35-31 heartbreaker. Wolfpack head coach Dave Doeren holds a perfect 4-0 mark all-time against the Cavaliers, though these programs have only met twice in the last five years — and five times in the last 15 years overall — with those two recent games decided by a total of just seven points. Virginia or pass. Nothing for now.
No leanage
4. NORTH DAKOTA ST -6.5 Jacksonville St (46.5)………..MEGALOCKS line – North Dakota St -8.5
Vegas Implied Score – North Dakota St 26.5 Jacksonville St 20.0
We’ll roll with North Dakota St in this one, as the Bison are making their FBS debut and have been looking forward to this moment for a long time. They’re playing at home in the dome, where they are an impossibly impossible 80‑6 over the L10Y. Their defense matches up well with the run‑heavy approach of Jacksonville St.
Lean – NORTH DAKOTA ST -7 -102
NOTE – the consensus is -6.5 -120; -7 +100 to -7 -105 is widely available as well.
Posted 11:00am Aug 25
5. EASTERN MICHIGAN -9.5 SACRAMENTO ST (52.5)………..MEGALOCKS line – Eastern Michigan -10
Vegas Implied Score – Eastern Michigan 31.0 Sacramento St 21.5
We’ve got Sacramento St rated as the worst team in the MAC, and while Eastern Michigan isn’t a juggernaut by any means, they have one of the most experienced rosters in the conference along with a quality veteran QB. The Eagles’ defense was horrible vs the run last year, but the Hornets will be hard‑pressed to do much of anything on offense with very little FBS talent to speak of. It would surprise us if they scored more than 20 points in this one.
Lean – SACRAMENTO ST TEAM TOTAL UNDER 21.5 -122
Note – You can find anything from Under 20.5 +105 to Under 21.5 -125. Our protocol for posting “leans” on team totals is listed at the bottom of this page.
Posted 12:45pm Aug 25
6. Florida St -31.5 New Mexico St (52.5)………..MEGALOCKS line – Florida St -28.5
Vegas Implied Score – Florida St 42.0 New Mexico St 10.5
The Aggies aren’t complete garbage, but they’re still a CUSA team traveling to face a squad with a lot of raw talent. The Noles spanked ROLL TIDE (!) in this spot last year — they’ll be motivated to put on a show, but we’re not sure how potent the offense will be under new starting QB Ashton Daniels. Note that Florida St has a massive home game with SMU up next.
No leanage
7. Stanford -5.5 Hawaii (49.5)………..MEGALOCKS line – Stanford -4
Vegas Implied Score – Stanford 27.5 Hawaii 22.0
There might be a wee bit of “value” in backing the road underdog, but we can’t ignore the fact that HC Timmy Chang is just 4‑18 on the road as head coach of Hawaii. Stanford looked like gold in the opener at Hawaii last year, only to lose late in gruesome fashion by a field goal. The Cardinal are no gem either, as they’re 0‑7 ATS L7 as home chalk.
No leanage
8. UNLV -5.5 Memphis (56.5)………..MEGALOCKS line – UNLV -4.5
Vegas Implied Score – UNLV 31.00 Memphis 25.50
Very tough game to call. We’re high on Memphis in terms of their American Conference fortunes, but it’s probably not fair to ask them to be up to speed in the season opener with so much roster turnover and a new head coach. It’s not a cheap price to back the home team in UNLV, as they’re also reloading at several key positions, including quarterback. Do we really trust your boy Jackson Arnold? Note that UNLV has the Mountain West opener at Hawaii on deck, which is a massive game in conference action.
No leanage.
9. Rutgers -30.5 Massachusetts (53.5)………..MEGALOCKS line – Rutgers -29.5
Vegas Implied Score – Rutgers 42.0 Massachusetts 11.5
Both teams will be improved this season. Rutgers has a new starting QB but legit stars at RB in Antwan Raymond and WR KJ Duff. The defense fell apart in the 2nd half last year, but the DL and LB group have been shored up with transfers. UMass was the worst team in the country last year, but the talent on the roster has been upgraded significantly, particularly at QB, offensive line, and the skill positions. Can they hang within 30 points or so? We think they can, but aren’t ready to go to the window just yet. The Scarlet Knights are 13‑7 ATS L20 as a home favorite.
No leanage.
10. Wake Forest -23.5 Akron (49.5)………..MEGALOCKS line – Wake Forest -21
Vegas Implied Score – Wake Forest 36.5 Akron 13.0
We believe Akron will be a scrappy team in MAC play, and they’re catching a few too many points here. However, they don’t take these games vs Power 4 opponents very seriously — 2–8 ATS in their last 10 vs Power 4 competition and 6–10 ATS in their last 16 as a non‑conference road dog. Wake Forest HC Jake Dickert is 60% ATS in 56 FBS games as a head coach and not a dude we like to fade. The favorite idea is probably the under, but we haven’t done anything yet.
No leanage
11. Georgia Tech -6.5 Colorado (50.5)………..MEGALOCKS line – Georgia Tech -6.5
Vegas Implied Score – Georgia Tech 28.5 Colorado 22.0
The Yellow Jackets won this matchup in Boulder last year by a touchdown, but this game will look a lot different. Two revamped rosters, a pair of new starting quarterbacks, and four new coordinators. Georgia Tech will certainly miss star QB Haynes King, but they’ve got one of the best 1–2 RB combos in the ACC with Justice Haynes and Malachi Hosley. Colorado’s run defense was atrocious last year, so they’ve gotta improve to stay in this one under new DC Chris Marve, who promises an attacking and violent approach. The Buffs have an outstanding WR corps and a young QB with real upside in Julian Lewis, so they’re not without hope. We prefer the underdog but would want at least +7 to get involved.
No leanage
12. Illinois -28.5 UAB (56.5)………..MEGALOCKS line – Ilinois -28
Vegas Implied Score – Illinois 42.5 UAB 14.0
Not a game we plan on getting involved with as we approach press time. UAB looks like one of the worst teams in the country, while Illinois doesn’t appear very strong in the trenches compared to recent editions of Illini football. Illinois took care of business as double‑digit favorites last season (4–0 ATS).
No leanage
13. Eastern Michigan -3.5 San Jose St (54.5)………..MEGALOCKS line – Eastern Michigan -3.5
Vegas Implied Score – Eastern Michigan 29.0 San Jose St 24.5
We were happy that the Eagles played sound defense against Sacramento State in Week Zero action to get our Team Total play to cash, but they couldn’t run the ball vs the Hornets and weren’t explosive on offense vs one of the worst teams they’ll play all year (Lindenwood has entered the chat). And as we noted in our AWARD‑WINNING Week 0 Review Blog post — Eastern Michigan was a GONG SHOW on special teams.
San Jose St kept digging vs USC in their opener, and QB Luke Weaver looked pretty good even though he only had success vs the Trojans’ backups. Long travel might be an issue for the Spartans. The spread looks about right. Best look might be the over, but we’ll have to see on that one. We wouldn’t be surprised to see it go to 55.
No leanage
14. Michigan St -9.5 Toledo (46.5)………..MEGALOCKS line – Michigan St -10.5
Vegas Implied Score – Michigan St 30.0 Toledo 19.5
We’ll take a stab with Sparty now that the MOB STEAM has taken the number down from –10.5 to –9.5. It might be the same mobsters that steamed NC State in Week 0 — it’s just hard to know. Toledo might be a darkhorse in the MAC, but this is a completely new roster loaded with guys (some good ones) from the FCS, and the Rockets have a new head coach.
Michigan St also has a new head coach in Pat Fitzgerald, who hasn’t been on the sidelines in a while, but the good news is that they’ve got a QB who looked pretty good last year, an offensive line with three legit DUDES and lots of overall size, and a pair of legit RBs. The defense is a work in progress, but Sparty has a good DC, and they also grabbed the best special teams coach in the nation from Iowa.
We don’t expect much at all from Michigan St in Big Ten action, but they’ve got the bodies to win this one by double digits. The Spartans are 16–1 SU in their last 17 openers.
Lean – MICHIGAN ST -9.5 -110
-9.5 -110 is consensus
Posted Sept 1, 4:30pm
15. Oklahoma -41.5 UTEP (50.5)………..MEGALOCKS line – Oklahoma -42
Vegas Implied Score – Oklahoma 46.0 UTEP 4.5
We don’t see theoretical line value with the Sooners, but we could only look at them in this spot. They’ve got one of the best defenses in college football paired with a talented dual‑threat QB in John Mateer, who’s healthy and ready to roll. UTEP promises to be a bottom‑feeder in the remodeled Mountain West and will be fortunate to exceed their team total. Oklahoma has won their last four season openers in blowout fashion, knocking over TOMATO CANS by scores of 35–3, 51–3, 73–0, and 45–13 (UTEP, 2022). Our only concern is that Oklahoma has a massive road trip to Michigan next week, and that means lots of backups could get some action in the second half. Nothing for now, but like a few games, we might come back to it later in the week.
No leanage
16. USC -22.5 Fresno St (51.5)………..MEGALOCKS line – USC -21
Vegas Implied Score – USC 37 Fresno St 14.5
USC didn’t look great in the opener, but they still put up over 500 yards of offense without two of their best wide receivers, who may be back for this game. And San Jose St did almost all of their damage vs the USC backups on defense — the starters were fine with the exception of pass rush, as the Trojans recorded only one sack in that game.
We’re high on Fresno St in terms of their Pac‑12 dreams, but they’ll be featuring a new starting QB. Note: Teams that haven’t played a game vs a team that has played a Week 0 game have been a better bet ATS (Fresno St) over a long time horizon. Two possible reasons: one team has fresh legs, and the other team has recent film for their opponent to watch.
No leanage
17. Miami -24.5 Stanford (48.5)………..MEGALOCKS line – Miami -23
Vegas Implied Score – Miami 36.5 Stanford 12.0
Tough game to call as YOUR Miami Hurricanes open up ACC play with a trip out to the communist hotbed of California. They’ve got the best roster in the ACC, but the spread looks about right, and Stanford showed some moxie with a win over Hawaii in their opener. QB Davis Warren had over 300 passing yards, and RB Micah Ford punched in three rushing TDs. However, Stanford is severely beat up on the offensive line in terms of injuries, so keep that in mind if you want action on this one. We think Miami will win by between 18 and 28 points, so we’ll take a pass on this BAD BOY.
No leanage
18. West Virginia -21 Coastal Carolina (58.5)………..MEGALOCKS line – West Virginia -23
Vegas Implied Score – West Virginia 40.0 Coastal Carolina 18.5
The Mountaineers promise to have an absolutely devastating ground attack in year two of the Rich Rod REBOOT behind star RB Cam Cook, who led the nation in rushing last season at Jax St, along with QB Michael Hawkins, who’s faster than a speeding bullet. Just kidding. Not really.
Coastal Carolina is one of the worst teams in the Sun Belt, and we don’t think the Mountaineers will stop scoring if they truly are as dominant as we think on the ground. There’s no lookahead spot to worry about, as they’ve got something called UT Martin up next.
Lean – WEST VIRGINIA -21 -105
Consensus is -21 -105. It’s pretty easy to find a -20.5 -115, so shop around.
Posted Sept 1, 2:30pm
19. Alabama -28.5 East Carolina (54.5)………..MEGALOCKS line – Alabama -27
Vegas Implied Score – Alabama 41.5 East Carolina 13.0
ROLL TIDE, bay‑bee. They’ll be looking to start another run to the CFP with an opener vs a feisty ARRRR Pirates squad that’s accumulated a 14–5 record under HC Blake Harrell. Alabama laid an egg in the season opener at Florida St last year, so we don’t think they’ll come out flat in this one — particularly at home. They’ve got a new QB and an offensive line that looks a bit sketchy by SEC standards, but it’s hard to see the Pirates doing much damage vs a devastating Tide secondary. We were hoping to see a number below –27 to back Alabama, but here we are. Note that the Tide have their SEC opener the following week at Kentucky.
No leanage
As we often do on these fine pages, in tribute to the Pirates of East Carolina, here’s the preview in PIRATE SPEAK.
ROLL TIDE, ye scallywags! The Crimson Horde be lookin’ to launch another grand voyage to the CFP, openin’ their season against a feisty crew o’ ARRRR Pirates who’ve plundered a 14–5 haul under Cap’n Blake Harrell. The Tide laid a rotten egg in their season opener at Florida State last year, so we don’t reckon they’ll be sailin’ slow in this one — ’specially not in their own mighty harbor. They’ve got a new signal‑caller at the helm and an O‑line that be lookin’ a wee bit shaky by SEC standards, but it’s hard t’ imagine the Pirates doin’ much pillagin’ against a fearsome Tide secondary that be ready to send ’em straight to Davy Jones. We were hopin’ to spy a number below –27 to back the Tide, but alas, the seas be cruel. And mind ye — the Tide set sail for their SEC opener next week at Kentucky, so keep yer spyglass sharp.
20. James Madison -6.5 Liberty (50.5)………..MEGALOCKS line – James Madison -7.5
Vegas Implied Score – James Madison 28.5 Liberty 22.0
Our numbers show value with James Madison, but it’s fair to say the Dukes are a bit of a mystery box with a completely revamped roster under new HC Billy Napier. They smoked Liberty in last year’s version of the Battle of the Blue Ridge in Lynchburg and now get the game at home. Liberty was a major disappointment last year (4–8), and while we’re almost certain they’ll be better this season, it’s a tough ask to get JMU on the schedule off the hop.
No leanage
21. Pittsburgh -16.5 Miami Ohio (48.5)………..MEGALOCKS line – Pittsburgh -17.5
Vegas Implied Score – Pittsburgh 32.5 Miami Ohio 16
Miami Ohio is a DEMON in MAC play, but they don’t fare well in non‑conference road games vs Power 4 teams, and they’ll be starting a QB who hasn’t thrown an FBS pass. The good news for the RedHawks is that they’re sound in the running game and on defense. Pitt has won in blowout fashion in each of their last three home openers and were 4–0 ATS as home chalk in 2025. They’ll need better play from their offensive line and overall balance to get the cover. We think they’ll probably do it, but still on the fence as we approach press time.
No leanage
22. Indiana -41.5 North Texas (55.5)………..MEGALOCKS line – Indiana -39
Vegas Implied Score – Indiana 48.5 North Texas 7.0
The defending National Champions bring another loaded roster to the table, and they’ll take on a completely revamped North Texas squad with a new head coach. It sure doesn’t help that they lost star CB Caden Jenkins for the season due to injury, and former Indiana/UCF QB Tayven Jackson is going to have a tough time getting much done vs the Indiana defense — even though star RB Jahiem White is expected to suit up. We can’t imagine White gets more than 10–12 carries, but you never know.
Indiana failed to cover in their home opener last year vs ODU, but the Monarchs were a good team and the spread was in the –23 range. They wallopped Kennesaw St the following week 56–9. You’re paying a bit of a premium to play the Hoosiers according to our numbers, but it’s tricky gauging value when you start talking about gigantic spreads like this one.
No leanage
23. Nebraska -23.5 Ohio (46.5)………..MEGALOCKS line – Nebraska -25
Vegas Implied Score – Nebraska 35 Ohio 11.5
CORN has upgraded at quarterback with the addition of Anthony Colandrea, and we expect the defense to be much stingier under new DC Rob Aurich, who did a masterful job at San Diego St. Ohio has a massive downgrade at QB, and they’re scrappy but very undersized up front. We don’t expect the Bobcats to contend in the MAC this year. Nebraska HC Matt Rhule is a good bully — going 9–6–1 ATS as home chalk and 7–4 ATS in non‑conference action. They blew out Akron 68‑zip in last year’s home opener and destroyed UTEP 40–7 in the 2024 home lidlifter.
Lean – NEBRASKA -23.5 -110
Consensus is -23.5; A few shops are showing -24.
Posted Sept 1, 11:38am
24. Houston -20.5 Oregon St (50.5)………..MEGALOCKS line – Houston -20
Vegas Implied Score – Houston 35.5 Oregon St 15.0
Houston is definitely on the short list of teams that’ll be fighting for a chance to face Texas Tech in the Big 12 Championship Game in December. They should fire their best effort here, as they don’t have a lookahead spot to worry about (Southern up next). We believe Oregon St will improve this season, but it’s tough to know what to expect in the opener with a new head coach and a shiny new starting QB.
No leanage
25. UCLA -1.5 California (54.5)………..MEGALOCKS line – Pick ’em
Vegas Implied Score – UCLA 28.0 California 26.5
This is one of the more interesting games of opening week, and it’s a tough one to analyze. We expect both teams to make a bowl game, and each squad boasts veteran QBs leading the way. Oh yeah — and we’ll be watching new coaches patrol both sidelines in Bob Chesney (UCLA) and Tosh Lupoi (Cal). The dog has covered the last eight in the series, and we expect a very entertaining game between a pair of former Pac‑12 foes. We’ll take another look later in the week, but nothing for now.
No leanage
26. Ohio St -50.5 Ball St (56.5)………..MEGALOCKS line – Ohio St -49
Vegas Implied Score – Ohio St 53.5 Ball St 3.0
The Buckeyes can name the score in this event, and it’ll be interesting to see how they approach things in the second half when they’re up by five TDs, given that the epic road trip to face Texas is up next. Ball State appears to be a MAC bottom‑feeder once again. Note that Ohio State HC Ryan Day is a spicy 32–17 ATS as home chalk (65% ATS).
No leanage
27. South Carolina -36.5 Kent St (52.5)………..MEGALOCKS line – South Carolina -35
Vegas Implied Score – South Carolina 44.5 Kent St 8.0
Kent St will be a bit spunky in MAC play, but they’re obviously way out of their league in this one. The COCKS should be fully focused, as they have another TOMATO CAN to knock over the following week (Towson), so we’re not worried about a lookahead spot. The INTREPID Phil Steele reminds us that Kent St has lost games vs SEC foes by an average score of 45–9. Line looks about right.
No leanage
28. Auburn -7.5 Baylor (58.5)………..MEGALOCKS line – Auburn -8.5
Vegas Implied Score – Auburn 33 Baylor 25.5
Auburn handled the Bears in Waco last year thanks in large part to a 307–64 yard advantage on the ground. The Bears might be a bit more stingy defending the run with an upgraded DL and new DC, but the bad news is that they’ve downgraded from Sawyer Robertson to DJ Lagway at QB, so we don’t see the Bears throwing for over 400 yards in this contest. We prefer the favorite but need –7 or better to consider a move.
No leanage
29. Oregon -24.5 Boise St (51.5)………..MEGALOCKS line – Oregon -23
Vegas Implied Score – Oregon 38 Boise St 13.5
The Ducks are loaded for a deep run in the Big Ten and into the CFP, and they’ll have too much talent for Boise to handle in this one. Oregon HC Dan Lanning is a tough fade (35‑21 ATS, 63%), but remember that Boise St is 4‑0 ATS vs the Ducks, and they took Oregon to the wire the last time here in 2024, losing a close one 37–34. However, this team doesn’t look nearly as dangerous on offense — particularly when it comes to the THROW GAME.
No leanage
30. Cincinnati -7.5 Boston College (51.5)………..MEGALOCKS line – Cincinnati -9
Vegas Implied Score – Cincinnati 29.5 Boston College 22
The Bearcats come into this one on a five‑game losing streak after a brutal collapse last season. The offense doesn’t look as potent without Brendan Sorsby at the controls, but the RB group is fine and the OL looks like one of the best in the Big 12. The defense should be a bit better under new DC Nate Woody (Army). Boston College looks like a clear ACC bottom‑feeder, and they’ve got no THROW GAME weaponry to speak of — especially after losing TE Kaelan Chudzinski for the season due to injury. The defense is MEH. Our numbers show value with the Bearcats, and we might have something on this game as we get closer to gameday.
No leanage
31. Penn St -24.5 Marshall (54.5)………..MEGALOCKS line – Penn St -24
Vegas Implied Score – Penn St 39.5 Marshall 15.0
The Matt Campbell era is upon us in Happy Valley as Penn St hopes to ride a buttery‑soft schedule to a big season. We’re a bit lower than market on the Nittany Lions, but they’ll be JACKED UP in Week One. Marshall is one of the best teams in the Sun Belt, but they’re obviously overmatched in this one. Line looks about right.
No leanage
32. Texas -30.5 Texas St (60.5)………..MEGALOCKS line – Texas -28.5
Vegas Implied Score – Texas 45.5 Texas St 15.0
Texas has one of the best rosters in the country behind star QB Arch Manning, and they’ve done a good job over the last few years as double‑digit favorites in early‑season home non‑conference games. Texas St is a longshot player in the remodeled Pac‑12, and they’ve got a deadly offense with an excellent quarterback of their own in Brad Jackson. Slight preference to the underdog, but we’ll lay in the weeds and look to back the Bobcats when the schedule gets back to normal. Note that Texas has the epic matchup with Ohio St up next.
No leanage
33. Duke -7.5 Tulane (50.5)………..MEGALOCKS line – Duke -8.5
Vegas Implied Score – Duke 29 Tulane 21.5
Tulane is poised to take a step back this season according to our American Conference INSIDERS, as they’ve got a reloaded roster with downgrades o’plenty, including at QB and head coach. Duke is going to be hard‑pressed to repeat as ACC champs without star QB Darian Mensah, who’s off to YOUR Miami Hurricanes, but they’ve got a more talented roster overall and a revenge card to play after losing at Tulane last year. We prefer the Duke side but need –7 or better.
No leanage
34. Oklahoma St -14.5 Tulsa (61.5)………..MEGALOCKS line – Oklahoma St -14
Vegas Implied Score – Oklahoma St 38.0 Tulsa 23.5
Oklahoma St was a fire‑alarm TIRE FIRE last year, and they enter this game on an 11‑game losing streak. The good news is that they have a new head coach and a reloaded roster that includes QB Drew Mestemaker, who led the nation in passing yards last season (4,379). Tulsa showed some GREEN SHOOTS of growth under HC Tre Lamb in 2025, particularly on defense, and they’ll be fired up to battle an in‑state Power 4 rival. Unfortunately, they won’t catch the Cowboys sleeping, as don’t forget Tulsa SHOCKED THE WORLD and beat Oklahoma St last year in Stillwater. The home team is 0–5 ATS in the last five. Tough call at this market price.
No leanage
35. Iowa -31.5 Northern Illinois (46.5)………..MEGALOCKS line – Iowa -33
Vegas Implied Score – Iowa 39.0 Northern Illinois 7.5
Northern Illinois is in for a WORLD of HURT in this game, but as is always the case with Iowa, the question becomes whether they can score enough to cover the big number. Note that the Hawkeyes have the rivalry game with Iowa State up next, so we don’t expect them to pour it on in the second half. Favorite or pass, and we’ll take a seat for now.
No leanage
36. Colorado St -3.5 Wyoming (46.5)………..MEGALOCKS line – Colorado St -2.5
Vegas Implied Score – Colorado St 25.0 Wyoming 21.5
It’s the 118th edition of the BORDER WAR, but this time we’ve got these two hated rivals competing in different conferences. Colorado St joined the reconstituted Pac‑12 and looks to be in clear rebuild mode under new HC Jim Mora, while Wyoming sticks around in the Mountain West and will try and get things activated in year three of the Jay Sawvel regime (7–17 L2Y). Wyoming has the better stop unit, and the offense has upgraded at QB by scooping up Tyler Hughes from William & Mary. The Rams are 0–5 ATS in their last five home openers and have lost eight of the last ten meetings. We prefer the dog and will probably have something on this game sometime on Thursday.
OFFICIAL PLAY — Wyoming +3 -105 <sent 2:22pm Sept 4 >
Consensus is +3 -105. You can find as low at +3 -101. There are cheap +3.5s in the market and that’s our preferred option, but we’ll post +3 for record keeping purposes.
37. Memphis -9.5 Arkansas St (55.5)………..MEGALOCKS line – Memphis -10
Vegas Implied Score – Memphis 32.5 Arkansas St 23.0
It’s another edition of the Paint Bucket Bowl, yo — one of the oldest regional rivalries in college football (1914) — and it restarts this year for a four‑year run. Memphis is set to play UNLV (Aug 29) as we approach press time, so we’ll wait to see how they fare in that one and hope for a potential market overreaction. Arkansas St looks like a contender in the Sun Belt West Division, while Memphis features a new head coach and a brand‑new roster. The Tigers are 57–12 at home over the last ten years.
No leanage
38. USF -14.5 Florida International (51.5)………..MEGALOCKS line – USF -14
Vegas Implied Score – USF 33 Florida International 18.5
USF is starting a new era without HC Alex Golesh and star QB Byrum Brown, who are off to Auburn, along with lots of other dudes. They’re going to take a step back in the American Conference this year, but they get to face a mid‑tier CUSA opponent in the home opener and should be able to take care of business. However, it’s worth noting that USF has the conference opener at Army up next, and the Panthers would love to show out vs an in‑state Power 4 opponent. We prefer the underdog, but it’s hard to know what to expect from the Bulls.
No leanage
39. Texas A&M -40.5 Missouri St (53.5)………..MEGALOCKS line – Texas A&M -42
Vegas Implied Score – Texas A&M 46.5 Missouri St 6.0
As crazy as it may be, we could only think about the favorite in this one, as Missouri St is poised to take a big step backwards after losing their star QB, head coach, and several key contributors across the board. Texas A&M should be able to hit the 50‑point mark, and recall that Missouri St lost at USC 73–13 in the 2025 opener. The only risk is that the Aggies take their foot off the gas given the much bigger date with Arizona St on the horizon.
No leanage
40. Troy -16.5 Sam Houston (53.5)………..MEGALOCKS line – Troy -17.5
Vegas Implied Score – Troy 35.0 Sam Houston 18.5
Troy starts their defense of the Sun Belt West Division crown with a game vs a Sam Houston squad that was absolutely putrid last year. It’s good to see Troy starting QB Goose Crowder back under center, and hopefully he can stay healthy for a few games. It should be a blowout, but Troy has failed to cover in four consecutive season openers. The Bearkats will be utilizing a new Air Raid attack vs the Troy stop unit, so maybe the over is worth a look. Nothing yet for us.
No leanage
41. LSU -10 Clemson (50.5)………..MEGALOCKS line – LSU -10
Vegas Implied Score – LSU 30.25 Clemson 20.25
We’ve spent quite a bit of time looking over this one, and it’s a tough call at the current spread and total. LSU and the PORTAL KING Lane Kiffin bring a loaded roster and a big home‑field advantage that’ll certainly help their cause in a home night game. Clemson has a great set of WRs and a rock‑solid defense, but we’re not sold on the offensive line, and who knows what to expect from starting QB Christopher Vizzina, who only had 71 attempts last year. Clemson had a tough time running the ball last season (124 YPG, #105 FBS), and do we really expect them to have much success on the ground Saturday night? You’ve gotta be balanced on offense to have a shot in this one. That being said, Clemson might be flying under the radar just a wee bit, and while we prefer LSU in this affair, not sure we wanna lay double digits.
No leanage
42. Mississippi St -28.5 ULM (54.5)………..MEGALOCKS line – Mississippi St -27
Vegas Implied Score – Mississippi St 41.5 ULM 13.0
The over looks worth a stab as the Bulldogs should put up plenty of points behind emerging star dual‑threat QB Kamario Taylor, who looked great in the second half of the 2025 season. Mississippi St’s defense still looks sketchy, and ULM will be using more tempo on offense. The Warhawks looked improved on offense, and if both teams are interested in moving fast and scoring points, who are we to object?
LEAN – OVER 54.5 -110
Market is split between 54.5 -110 and 55 -105. 54.5 is available at several major books. 55 -105 is a fine backup option.
Posted Sept 2, 2:50pm
43. Michigan -28.5 Western Michigan (48.5)………..MEGALOCKS line – Michigan -28
Vegas Implied Score – Michigan 38.5 Western Michigan 10.0
The Wolverines will have no problem disposing of the Broncos in the Big House, but the question becomes how their intensity carries into the second half with Oklahoma coming to town the following week. It’s a tough matchup for the Broncos, who make their living running the ball down people’s throats — and that ain’t happening in this game. The implied score of 38–10 looks close enough.
No leanage
44. Florida -26.5 FAU (59.5)………..MEGALOCKS line – Florida -24
Vegas Implied Score – Florida 43 FAU 16.5
Not our favorite game on the board from a wagering standpoint. Florida Atlantic can definitely SCORE the FOOTBALL with their deadly air attack, but we surely wonder how that defense will stack up in the SWAMP. Florida has some real MOJO heading into 2026 with new HC Jon Sumrall, and there’s no lookahead spot to worry about with something known as Campbell coming to town next week.
No leanage
45. New Mexico -10.5 Central Michigan (46.5)………..MEGALOCKS line – New Mexico -10
Vegas Implied Score – New Mexico 28.5 Central Michigan 18.0
Tough game to call as the Lobos lost starting QB Jack Layne for the year due to injury (13/13 starts), and the backup QB situation is “fluid” to say the least. Some notable prognosticators have told us that Luke Moga is the greatest quarterback of all time because he used to be at Oregon, but we’ll have to see how that goes. It looks like multiple guys will get a shot under center. The good news for New Mexico is that Central Michigan does their damage on the ground, and they’ll be up against one of the best run defenses in the Group of Six, featuring a sick LB group. Tempted to take the points, as FIRE UP CHIPS are very scrappy, but it’s kinda the worst matchup imaginable for them. Note that New Mexico is 7–19 ATS over the last 10 years as home chalk (2–3 LY).
No leanage
46. UNLV -2.5 Hawaii (58.5)………..MEGALOCKS line – Pick ’em
Vegas Implied Score – UNLV 30.5 Hawaii 28
Tough game to call as UNLV makes the long trip out to Hawaii after losing a tough one at home to Memphis. Hawaii didn’t impress us vs Stanford, although they made a great comeback attempt and almost pulled it out. The Cardinal had a 6.80 / 4.35 YPP advantage and didn’t need to make it that difficult. Also note that Hawaii’s front looked awful to us, and they didn’t book a sack the entire game despite Stanford seemingly losing an offensive lineman every 17 minutes. Hawaii is 19‑7‑2 ATS (73%) at home under HC Timmy Chang, so that makes them a very tough fade in this one.
We were looking at the over, but here’s a note from our DEEP UNLV INSIDERS: their starting center Austin Boyd got injured in the 4th quarter and is questionable/doubtful for this game. After Boyd left: fumbled snap, four Memphis sacks, 12 plays for minus‑14 yards. So it’s hard to count on UNLV to score a ton of points without knowing if their leader up front is gonna go.
No leanage
47. Western Kentucky -1.5 Nevada (52.5)………..MEGALOCKS line – Pick ’em
Vegas Implied Score – Western Kentucky 27.0 Nevada 25.5
WKU has won eight or more games in five consecutive seasons under HC Tyson Helton, but they enter the 2026 season with a big question mark in the first two levels of the defense, and it looks as though they’ll struggle stopping the run once again (avg 196 YPG rushing allowed L3Y). QB Rodney Tisdale looked good at times last year but was a bit inconsistent (9–7 TD to INT), although that’s to be expected for almost any freshman QB. The Toppers have reloaded at RB and WR, so we’ll have to see how crisp they look in the opener.
Nevada also had an inconsistent QB leading the way last season in Carter Jones (6–8 TD to INT), but he showed promise much like Tisdale did for WKU. We prefer Nevada in this one, as they’ll win the rushing battle by a large margin and have the better defense. Tough travel spot for the Toppers making their way out to Reno for some SWEET late‑night ACTION. We’ll probably have something on this game Thursday or Friday.
Official pick — Nevada +1.5 -115
+1.5 -115 is consensus. +1.5 -110 is tough to find. +1.5 -112 is common. A lot more +1s are showing up.
Sent Sept 4 2:56pm
48. Washington -23.5 Washington St (50.5)………..MEGALOCKS line – Washington -21.5
Vegas Implied Score – Washington 36.5 Washington St 14.0
It’s another edition of the APPLE CUP, and the Huskies are back on their home turf for this one after SPANKING Washington St 59–24 in Pullman last year. We can’t lay this many points in a rivalry game, but it’s also a tough ask to back a Cougars squad playing with a new HC and starting QB. Washington is 11–5 ATS in the last 16 meetings.
No leanage
49. Ole Miss -6.5 Louisville (55.5)………..MEGALOCKS line – Ole Miss -7
Vegas Implied Score – Ole Miss 31.0 Louisville 24.5
This is clearly one of the best matchups of the weekend, and the folks down in Nashville should be in for a treat. LUA‑VUH has a history of upsetting the apple cart as the underdog under HC Jeff Brohm, and they’ve got a sturdy defense along with one of the best weapons in college football in RB Isaac Brown, who’s 100% and ready to go. Ole Miss counters with Heisman Trophy candidates at QB and RB, paired with a stop unit CHOCK FULL of talent. They’ll be working with a pair of new tackles on the offensive line, so it’ll be interesting to see how they hold up. LUA‑VUH is rolling with a shiny new QB in Lincoln Kienholz, who didn’t get much playing time at Ohio State, but he’s a mobile specimen who’ll stretch the defense. Slight preference to the underdog, but we’d need +7 to get involved. The best play might be “over 675.5 times the announcers say “LUA-VUH”, like their mouths are full of marbles, or something worse.
No leanage
50. Notre Dame -20.5 Wisconsin (47.5)………..MEGALOCKS line – Notre Dame -21
Vegas Implied Score – Notre Dame 34.0 Wisconsin 13.5
Notre Dame and Wisconsin do battle on the soon‑to‑be FROZEN TUNDRA in Green Bay, and the Badgers are going to have their hands full with an Irish squad that we rate as one of the top‑three teams in the nation heading into 2026. They’ve got a star QB and a devastating secondary, just to name a few features they bring to the table, but at least Wisconsin upgraded at QB by snagging former Old Dominion dual‑threat Colton Joseph. He’ll be good enough to move the ball at times and put stress on the defense, but it’s hard to see Wisconsin scoring more than 14–17 points. Note that Notre Dame HC Marcus Freeman is an impossibly impossible 35‑18‑2 ATS (66%).
LEAN — UNDER 46.5 -108
Consensus is 46.5.
Posted 4:33pm Sept 4
51. SMU -2.5 Florida St (53.5)………..MEGALOCKS line – TBD
Vegas Implied Score – SMU 28.0 Florida St 25.5
SEE FULL GAME ANALYSIS PAGE
LEAN SMU -3 -105
Consensus is -3 -105
Posted 4:33pm Sept 4
‘Official play’ means that this is one of our favorite plays of the week (perceived value, match-up, coaching, trends, etc.). We’ll start the season investing 25% more on these plays in comparison to our ‘leans’ or smaller plays. The 25% increased risk size may change during the season as we take stock of how things are going. We’ll typically have two or three of these choices per week.
‘Lean’ means that it’s not one of our favorite plays of the week. Many members prefer to pick and choose amongst these games when finalizing their weekly investment cards. We’ve used this terminology for over 20 years, so as annoying as the word ‘lean’ may be, we’ll continue to refer to them as ‘leans’. We’ll usually post between 6 and 12 of these plays per week.
‘No leanage’ means that we won’t have any action on the game.
Team totals – We’ll list the implied number based on the point spread and total when our analysis is posted. If a team total ends up being an ‘official play’ we’ll post a widely available number at the time of pick release.