Week 1 – North Carolina vs TCU (Aug 29)
The Game
Yes, guy.
The 2026 College Football Season is here!
We’ve got an interesting game to kick off the festivities as TCU battles North Carolina in Dublin, Ireland on Saturday. The Horned Frogs are coming off back-to-back 9-4 seasons and are looking for a big win to kickstart a run to the Big 12 Championship Game. The Tar Heels struggled mightily in year one of the Bill Belichick regime and finished the 2025 campaign with a miserable mark of 4-8. The folks in Chapel Hill are cautiously optimistic that this season will bring more success, and it would be a big deal if they could SHOCK the WORLD with an upset win across the pond.
Football. Beer. Irish HOTTIES. Let’s do this!
The Details
TCU -8.5 North Carolina (47.5)
Opened TCU -6.5 and sat at -7.5 for most of the last two weeks before Wednesday STEAM pushed it out toward -8/-8.5, with a few shops even flirtier.
MEGALOCKS LINE – TCU -6.5
“Vegas” Implied Projected Score: TCU 28 North Carolina 19.5
TCU offense vs North Carolina defense
The big question on offense is how the Horned Frogs will replace star QB Josh Hoover, who threw for over 3,400 yards last year but is now plying his trade with the National Champion Indiana Hoosiers. Harvard transfer Jaden Craig was phenomenal in 2025, but it’s a big step up in class from the Ivy League to the Power 4. The offense should be more balanced this season under new OC Gordon Sammis (UConn), and things should run pretty smoothly as the Horned Frogs return leading rusher Jeremy Payne along with WR Jordan Dwyer (730, 7 TD). The overall THROW GAME weaponry looks to be down a notch, and it got a little thinner after the Jacob Fields mess (more on that later) also put WR Dozie Ezukanma in the hospital. The offensive line looks strong and we like the depth at RB.
Lost in the TRASH HEAP that was the North Carolina 2025 season was a strong performance from the defense, particularly vs the run, where they allowed a very respectable 126 YPG (3.5 YPC). The pass rush was pretty good (31 sacks) and they bring back a lethal PENETRATOR in DE Melkart Abou-Jaoude, who registered 10.5 sacks last season. The LB group and secondary still leave a little bit to be desired, but we believe they can hang in there against the run. We don’t expect QB Jaden Craig to go bananas through the air in his first FBS start with an average set of WR/TEs, so the Tar Heels should be able to control the deep ball. Note that DC Steve Belichick is on medical leave and is not making the trip to Ireland, but Bill Belichick says the staff will “work it out.”
North Carolina offense vs TCU defense
The Tar Heels were a disgusting mess on offense last year, but we’re pleased to report a pair of improvements that are worth noting heading into this matchup. Veteran QB Billy Edwards showed some ability during his time with Maryland but missed almost all of last season at Wisconsin due to injury. Edwards should provide a steady hand and he can move around a little bit too. North Carolina also made a monumental upgrade at OC with the hire of Bobby Petrino, who’s one of the best offensive minds in the game. Benjamin Hall and Demon June are a solid 1-2 punch at RB and the offensive line has a lot of size, and should be improved this year. Leading wide receiver Jordan Shipp is back, and the Tar Heels added a few talented transfers including WR Trech Kekahuna (Wisconsin), who already has reps with Edwards from last year in Madison. It’s not an overwhelming set of targets, but UNC should be able to threaten the Horned Frogs with adequate balance.
TCU’s stop unit was similar to UNC’s last year in the sense that they were pretty sound vs the run (133 YPG) and not very good vs the pass. However, unlike the Tar Heels they didn’t have much success rushing the passer (23 sacks). The good news is that the Horned Frogs promise to be very good up front and the defensive line appears to be the best level of the defense. On a sour note, projected starting safety Jacob Fields — a C-USA Defensive Player of the Year transfer brought in to replace Bud Clark — was dismissed from the team on Aug 18 after a locker-room altercation that campus police treated as an alleged aggravated assault. That’s a real dent in a secondary that was already being rebuilt.
Trends, Intangibles, and More!
It’s a theoretical revenge spot for UNC, as the Horned Frogs smoked the Tar Heels in the 2025 lidlifter by an inhumane score of 48-14.
UNC is 0-8 vs the Big 12, although three of those losses came vs Texas and Oklahoma, so don’t go building a religion around that one.
The last four Ireland games at Aviva: Northwestern 31-28 over Nebraska, Notre Dame 42-3 over Navy, Georgia Tech 24-21 over Florida St, Iowa St 24-21 over Kansas St. That’s three outright upsets (Iowa St, Georgia Tech, Northwestern) and note that EACH of the last THREE games finished with a total of exactly 45. Witchcraft, yo.
Weather: We’re looking at cool temps and a wet field. Light to medium winds and a 20-30% chance of showers during the game. We’ll update the situation on our weather page later in the week if needed.
Summary
Our numbers show value with the Tar Heels. The market is out to TCU -8.5 and beyond, and we’ve got this closer to TCU -6.5, so we’ll take the points. We like the upgrades North Carolina made on offense with Petrino and Edwards, and the UNC run defense matches up pretty well with what TCU will bring to the table in Craig’s first FBS start. Recent Ireland history has favored the dog and the under, although it’s a very small sample.
Conclusion
Lean: NORTH CAROLINA +8.5 -104
+8.5 is the consensus. If you shop around you can find as high at +9.5.
Posted 3:25pm Aug 26
‘Official play’ means that this is one of our favorite plays of the week (perceived value, match-up, coaching, trends, etc.). We’ll start the season investing 25% more on these plays in comparison to our ‘leans’ or smaller plays. The 25% increased risk size may change during the season as we take stock of how things are going. We’ll typically have two or three of these choices per week.
‘Lean’ means that it’s not one of our favorite plays of the week. Many members prefer to pick and choose amongst these games when finalizing their weekly investment cards. We’ve used this terminology for over 20 years, so as annoying as the word ‘lean’ may be, we’ll continue to refer to them as ‘leans’. We’ll usually post between 6 and 12 of these plays per week.
‘No leanage’ means that we won’t have any action on the game.
Team totals – We’ll list the implied number based on the point spread and total when our analysis is posted. If a team total ends up being an ‘official play’ we’ll post a widely available number at the time of pick release.