Week 1 – SMU at Florida St (Sept 7)
The Game
This will be a fun way to wrap up Week One action as SMU travels to face Florida St in an important ACC battle. The Seminoles didn’t exactly look great in their season opener vs New Mexico St, but they still managed to win the game by 17 points. That being said, SMU presents a massive upgrade on the opponent‑meter, and they’ve been dying to get on the field since they choked away a shot at making the ACC Championship Game by losing at Cal to end the 2025 regular season.
The Details
SMU -3 Florida St (53)
MEGALOCKS LINE – SMU -3
“Vegas” Implied Projected Score: SMU 28 Florida St 25
SMU offense vs Florida St defense
The Mustangs are going to provide a stern challenge for the Seminoles’ defense, as they feature one of the best QBs in the ACC in senior Kevin Jennings, who led SMU to a CFP berth in 2024. The Mustangs should be improved on the ground with a solid offensive line and the addition of dual‑threat RB Kendrick Raphael from Cal. The WR group looks deep, but we’re not sure if there’s a true WR1 in the bunch. It’s a bit worrisome that Florida St allowed 272 passing yards vs New Mexico St, and they didn’t show much push up front — although they did manage to register three sacks. Overall, SMU shouldn’t have much trouble moving the ball and staying balanced on offense. The Seminoles will need to force a turnover or two to win this one.
Florida St offense vs SMU defense
The Seminoles have a serviceable QB in Ashton Daniels, but he’s booked a mediocre 25–23 TD to INT ratio over his career. Daniels played pretty well vs the Aggies, although he made one horrible decision that resulted in an INT, and we’re puzzled as to why he couldn’t connect with star WR Duce Robinson more often. The Noles boast a spicy 1–2 punch at RB in Ousmane Kromah and dual‑threat specimen Sam Singleton, but it remains to be seen whether the offensive line can provide enough space for those guys to do damage. The Florida St front didn’t look great vs New Mexico St, so we’re a bit pessimistic heading into Monday night. SMU has done a great job getting to the passer and stopping the run over the last three seasons, so the offensive line is going to have its hands full. However, SMU is reloading up front, and while the talent they brought in looks impressive, there’s no guarantee they’ll be up to recent standards.
Trends, Intangibles, and More!
SMU HC Rhett Lashlee is 21–13 ATS (62%) in conference action with the Mustangs, but he’s 0–3 ATS in the last three road openers.
Florida St’s Mike Norvell is 21–28 ATS in ACC play (43%), and note that the Seminoles are just 3–13 (!) in conference games over the last two seasons.
Teams playing their first game (SMU) are historically a much better bet — over a large sample — than teams that played in Week Zero (Florida St). The theory is that being able to watch film on your opponent is a significant advantage compared to having already played a game, though we suppose that’s up for debate. The trend stands, however, so just something to keep in mind.
Weather report: Light winds, humid, almost certainly a wet track. Only a 20–30% chance of rain during the game.
Summary
Yes, folks are down on Florida St right now, but you have to believe we see a better effort on Monday night. The problem with taking the Seminoles on the bounceback theory is that SMU is really good — maybe the second‑best team in the entire conference. They’ve got a significant edge at quarterback and at head coach.
Conclusion
We prefer SMU in this one and will probably have something on this game at some point soon. Stay tuned!
UPDATE
LEAN – SMU -3 -105
Consensus is -3 -105
Posted 4:33pm Sept 4
‘Official play’ means that this is one of our favorite plays of the week (perceived value, match-up, coaching, trends, etc.). We’ll start the season investing 25% more on these plays in comparison to our ‘leans’ or smaller plays. The 25% increased risk size may change during the season as we take stock of how things are going. We’ll typically have two or three of these choices per week.
‘Lean’ means that it’s not one of our favorite plays of the week. Many members prefer to pick and choose amongst these games when finalizing their weekly investment cards. We’ve used this terminology for over 20 years, so as annoying as the word ‘lean’ may be, we’ll continue to refer to them as ‘leans’. We’ll usually post between 6 and 12 of these plays per week.
‘No leanage’ means that we won’t have any action on the game.
Team totals – We’ll list the implied number based on the point spread and total when our analysis is posted. If a team total ends up being an ‘official play’ we’ll post a widely available number at the time of pick release.