Week 3 – LSU at Ole Miss
The Game
WHOA, NELLIE!
It’s the game we’ve all been waiting for as LSU and former Ole Miss head coach Lane Kiffin roll into Oxford to battle the Rebels in a Saturday night showdown. LSU started the campaign with a bang by demolishing Clemson and then struggled a bit with Louisiana Tech before pulling away in Week 2. Ole Miss needed a last‑second FG to beat a very strong Louisville outfit in their season opener and handled Charlotte with ease in their latest outing.
Two excellent teams. Two tonnes of hatred. Let’s go!
The Details
LSU -3 Ole Miss (57.5)
MEGALOCKS LINE – LSU -1
“Vegas” Implied Projected Score: LSU 30.25 Ole Miss 27.25
LSU offense vs Ole Miss defense
Your boy Lane Kiffin just couldn’t go a week without stirring the pot, but it does indeed appear that QB Sam Leavitt will be ready to roll on Saturday. Leavitt looked good in the opener vs Clemson but threw three (!) INTs last week in the win over Louisiana Tech, and any kind of performance close to that vs Ole Miss will certainly get the Tigers beat. RB Dilon Jones has looked the part of a #1 RB in the early going and has already carried the ball 41 times, and Leavitt has an embarrassment of riches at WR and TE with which to torture the Ole Miss secondary. Four players — including stud TE Trey’Dez Green and WR Winston Watkins — already have 100+ receiving yards through four games.
Ole Miss really started to struggle on defense vs LUA‑VUH in the second half of their opening‑week game, and there’s obviously a concern that we’ll see more of the same in this event. The good news is that Leavitt is very capable of making mistakes, and the Rebels certainly have the ability to crank up the defensive performance on their home field.
Ole Miss offense vs LSU defense
Ole Miss has one of the best QBs in the country in their corner in Trinidad Chambliss, who’s off to a great start (71%, 5–1 TD to INT, 62 rush yards, TD). He’s got the proven ability to play well in big games, and note that he’s thrown four INTs dating back to last season, while Leavitt has thrown four INTs in the last two games. Ole Miss also has one of the best RBs in the nation in Kewan Lacy (148 yards, 3 TD) and a red‑hot WR in Deuce Alexander (235 yards, 18.1 per, 2 TD). The Rebels don’t have the insane variety of weaponry that LSU brings to the table, but they’ve got stars who’ll test the LSU defense from start to finish.
LSU has looked sharp on defense so far, but Clemson and Louisiana Tech are nothing close to Ole Miss when it comes to SCORING the FOOTBALL. LSU has booked 11 sacks to date, while Ole Miss has only allowed one sack — so that’s a storyline to watch, particularly early in the contest.
Trends, Intangibles, and More!
The INTREPID Phil Steele reminds us that the home team has won seven in a row in the series and covered the spread in eight consecutive meetings.
There’s no reason to talk too much about the Lane Kiffin saga. Yep, he left Ole Miss at the most important point of their 2025 CFP run, and Ole Miss is BIG MAD. Lots of hate to go around in this game, and who knows how many personal fouls we might see in the first three minutes. Karen will be upset!
The weather forecast looks great.
Summary
We think Ole Miss can win this game, as they’ve got a Heisman Trophy‑caliber quarterback who takes care of the football, and the home team in this rivalry has certainly had an edge for a while now. Catching three points seems like the way to go.
Conclusion
Official pick – Ole Miss +3 -110
+3 -110 is consensus.
Sent 1:30pm Sept 18
‘Official play’ means that this is one of our favorite plays of the week (perceived value, match-up, coaching, trends, etc.). We’ll start the season investing 25% more on these plays in comparison to our ‘leans’ or smaller plays. The 25% increased risk size may change during the season as we take stock of how things are going. We’ll typically have two or three of these choices per week.
‘Lean’ means that it’s not one of our favorite plays of the week. Many members prefer to pick and choose amongst these games when finalizing their weekly investment cards. We’ve used this terminology for over 20 years, so as annoying as the word ‘lean’ may be, we’ll continue to refer to them as ‘leans’. We’ll typically post between 8 and 12 of these plays per week.
‘No leanage’ means that we won’t have any action on the game.
Team totals – We’ll list the implied number based on the point spread and total when our analysis is posted. If a team total ends up being an ‘official play’ we’ll post a widely available number at the time of pick release.